Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

[Azazel]

I’ve pretty much thrown the towel in here for summer - any heat just sort of ‘leaves’ which is weird but whatever.

Looking forward to Autumn where we seem to do better for surface based showers and storms.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

5 hours ago, Scuba steve said:

I’m glad you’re keeping abreast of the current situation

 

Are you allowed to dress like that there?! I hate it when women are openly provacative like that. It's stupid behaviour it really is.

3 hours ago, matty40s said:

Apparently there are 2 couples selling t17 tassels for £10, I think that may have been one of them.

Might as well not bother!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

2 hours ago, Scuba steve said:

Vigazzles price ,asking for a friend

New job for ya ... Set up shop!

[Eagle Eye]

I have collected 7 different non-Supercellular hail events or storms to have a look at the background information for and also the radar to get any hints at how non-Supercellular large hail occurs generally.

28th May 2022, 23rd June 2022, 28th June 2022, 12th June 2021, 18th August 2022, 5th June 2022, 23rd June 2023. 

Obviously this is all over Europe but I hope to work out a pattern at least. This will help me further with non-Supercellular hail forecasting.

At first glance we have;

1 pre-Supercell, 2 squall line rear inflow jets, 3 pure isolated storms ahead of or beneath a Supercell, 1 momentum kicker cell.

[Guest]

17 hours ago, Alderc said:

Should be interesting, will be flying along the Croatian coast in about 6hrs….bumpy bumpy!! 

Got a bit of a bit a light show on the way back just off the Croatian coast. 

 

 

[Aiden2012]

Ukv 3z

[Ben Sainsbury]

Timing of the cold front needs to chill, otherwise we're going to be left with nowt at this rate. Looking a very tight affair at the moment.

[Supacell]

4 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Timing of the cold front needs to chill, otherwise we're going to be left with nowt at this rate. Looking a very tight affair at the moment.

It really is racing through on the models. If it speeds up anymore than there will be no heat tomorrow and the 31⁰c being forecast for the southeast will be closer 21⁰c . As you said earlier though, we probably won't know until tomorrow when that cold front is coming through.

[ChannelThunder]

9 hours ago, Azazel said:

I’ve pretty much thrown the towel in here for summer - any heat just sort of ‘leaves’ which is weird but whatever.

Looking forward to Autumn where we seem to do better for surface based showers and storms.

Nothing will beat last year for that. A heatwave that peaked at 40C ending with a weak cold front introducing a massive and pretty much instantaneous drop in temps from the northwest, accompanied by sea mist down here... 

Hardly the explosive end to a major heatwave you'd wish for/expect

Edited June 24, 2023 by ChannelThunder

[Eagle Eye]

7 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

Nothing will beat last year for that. A heatwave that peaked at 40C ending with a weak cold front introducing a massive and pretty much instantaneous drop in temps from the northwest, accompanied by sea mist down here... 

Hardly the explosive end to a major heatwave you'd wish for/expect

I did have a thunderstorm on the south east coast that got me my best photos of a night time storm in the UK last year but it was the only storm anyone got.

[ChezWeather]

An early Yellow warning out from UKMO

[Rush2019]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Got a bit of a bit a light show on the way back just off the Croatian coast. 

IMG_5661.MOV 2.69 MB · 4 downloads  

 

Fascinating piece of footage, I was drawn to the small orange dot-like flashes above the lightning and wondered if you have captured Sprites, would appreciate other forum members opinion on this.

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Rush2112 said:

Fascinating piece of footage, I was drawn to the small orange dot-like flashes above the lightning and wondered if you have captured Sprites, would appreciate other forum members opinion on this.

Oooh, I didn’t notice that at the time. Unfortunately the footage isn’t as clear as i thought but the light is certainly not related to the plane, or another plane as is above the cloud and we were at 40,000ft then which is pretty much the ceiling for commercial jets. 
 

Additionally right at the start there is also a large flash at the top of the imagery. 

Edited June 24, 2023 by Alderc

[Allseasons-Si]

10 minutes ago, Rush2112 said:

Fascinating piece of footage, I was drawn to the small orange dot-like flashes above the lightning and wondered if you have captured Sprites, would appreciate other forum members opinion on this.

Could be a reflection of a red LED light off his camera.

[Rush2019]

8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Could be a reflection of a red LED light off his camera.

I thought it could be some kind of reflection.  What strikes me is the animation, literally fraction of a second flashing.

[Harry]

My weather app is still taking acid. I have seen some signs of very shallow convection trying to build but cannot for the life of me see it going 

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, ChannelThunder said:

Nothing will beat last year for that. A heatwave that peaked at 40C ending with a weak cold front introducing a massive and pretty much instantaneous drop in temps from the northwest, accompanied by sea mist down here... 

Hardly the explosive end to a major heatwave you'd wish for/expect

We got dry thunderstorm Infront of that front, then a quick downpour with no thunder in it. Strange weather for the UK.

1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

I did have a thunderstorm on the south east coast that got me my best photos of a night time storm in the UK last year but it was the only storm anyone got.

No rain in the way of veiws of structure or lightning or at least there wasn't here, all the rain was behind the storm.

[Ben Sainsbury]

2 hours ago, Supacell said:

It really is racing through on the models. If it speeds up anymore than there will be no heat tomorrow and the 31⁰c being forecast for the southeast will be closer 21⁰c . As you said earlier though, we probably won't know until tomorrow when that cold front is coming through.

Either way, the cold front should begin to organise over the next 6 hours or so, so hopefully we'll have a better idea on the timing of the front when the 12z runs are out later.

Edited June 24, 2023 by Ben Sainsbury

[Eagle Eye]

6 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

We got dry thunderstorm Infront of that front, then a quick downpour with no thunder in it. Strange weather for the UK.

No rain in the way of veiws of structure or lightning or at least there wasn't here, all the rain was behind the storm.

Here's some of what I got that evening. Excuse the zooming in. I'll be honest, can't be bothered to scroll through to the originals on here so just got them off my social media cropped photos.

[Sprites]

52 minutes ago, Rush2112 said:

I thought it could be some kind of reflection.  What strikes me is the animation, literally fraction of a second flashing.

Alot of phones don't have manual focus, which is ok when there's plenty of contrasty objects for the autofocus, but pretty useless at night. It's wierd how there's 6 different cameras on a single phone, but rarely manual focus , unless there's a night mode, but that's usually for stills. 

Edited June 24, 2023 by Sprites

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, Sprites said:

Alot of phones don't have manual focus, which is ok when there's plenty of contrasty objects for the autofocus, but pretty useless at night. It's wierd how there's 6 different cameras on a single phone, but rarely manual focus 

True,plus you can make it closer on your screen, zoom in, but it ruins the outcome.

[Guest]

Both UKV and the Arome 06Z make almost nothing of tomorrows cold front passage as it blasts east. 

[cheese]

21 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Both UKV and the Arome 06Z make almost nothing of tomorrows cold front passage as it blasts east. 

It does show significant convection over the North Sea though. Typical. Getting a thunderstorm here is like pulling teeth lately.

Edited June 24, 2023 by cheese

[Aiden2012]

Just now, cheese said:

It does show significant convection over the North Sea though. Typical.

This was my fear

[Ben Sainsbury]

We're still only taking about a couple hours difference from this being a bigger and more widespread event, so it's still not out the realms of possibility.