Synchronicity with Historic Stats and Records, New Forecast Method 🤓🤠👨‍🏫

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Right I've been really excited to begin this thread 😁 🥰 What my aims within it are I've seen large number of synchronicity through 2023 with particular years which will be abundantly obvious as the thread develops. 

Those observations will connect with my post below 

Hope everyone enjoys following and I'm super hyped to share my thoughts connecting to this Winter 😊 ☺️ 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Particular focus toward 2008, 2012 however here are all available composite DJF 

 DEC 1995

JAN 1996 

FEB 1996

DEC 2005

JAN 2006

FEB 2006

DECEMBER 2008

JANUARY 2009

FEBRUARY 2009 

FAMOUS SNOW EVENT FOR SOUTHEAST - LONDON 

DEC 2012

JAN 2013 might not scream cold and snow but I've posted multiple examples previous of JANUARY 2013 which gave prime dynamic evolution of sliding lows

Widespread snow January 2013

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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A snowy spell of weather affected most the UK from 14 to 26 January 2013.

UK snow depths Saturday 26 January 2013 | Official blog of the Met Office news team

BLOG.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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As forecast, further snow fell across central, northern and eastern parts of the UK yesterday and overnight. The latest snow depth observations as of 0800 this morning for the UK are below. Redesdale...

FEBRUARY 2013

2009

2010

2008 - 2010- 2017

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

2012 

2020 

 

2012

 

2010

A lot of 2020 and 2009 too

2012

 

2009

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

starting on August stats

England SE and Central S

2023 69.5mm close historic amounts 69.8mm 1866 "

1866
(December) The final heavy snowfall of 1866 occurred on the 30th December causing many roads in East Anglia to become impassable, and for a 2.5 metre snowdrift to be found in Regent Street, London. [ see also entry below for early January, 1867.] x

 1867
(January) A snowstorm occurred between the 1st & 2nd, 1867 causing great hindrance to railway traffic. [ q.v. entry above for late December. ] Snowdrifts of 6 metres were recorded while 20cm of snow fell on the morning of the 2nd in the Home Counties [Presumably the original depths were in feet]. On the 10th, heavy snow blocked roads and railways in London. South Shields, Tyne and Wear and Peterborough, Cambridgeshire also received large amounts of snow as well as the rest of the east coast of England. Dover and Deal in Kent and Brighton, East Sussex, became completely cut off. More heavy snow occurred between the 22nd and 23rd January, with extensive snow in eastern parts of Scotland, blocking railways. 75 cm of snow fell in Aberdeen, with snowdrifts up to 6m high. The very cold weather with snow was also reported by John Oram from Co. Mayo, Connaught in NW Ireland - I intrepret his comments to imply that the event there was most unusual."

1857 70.8mm "

 1858
(mid-February
to
early March) A period of persistent cold set in during the middle part of February and ended sometime in the second week of March. In Connaught (NW Ireland) in specifically, the frost was noted as 'hard' on occasion, which suggests a strong anticyclonic spell given the location of the reports. As the event gave way, which occurred 10th/11th March in Ireland, then significant snow was recorded - this may have been a feature elsewhere across the British Isles, but I've no other data to back that up. [ORAM, CET]

71.4mm 2017

16.9C mean temp 2009 17.3C 2010 16.1C 2012 17.2C 2017 16.4C 2008 16.6C 1961 16.0C

ENGLAND NORTHWEST & WALES NORTH

MEAN TEMPERATURE

15.2C 2009 15.1C 2008 15.0C 2012 15.3C

RAINFALL 114.7MM 1882 114.5MM

 1882 (December) The heavy snowfall between the 4th and 8th December was the worst snowfall of 1882. Snow fell across southern Scotland, northern England and the northern-most parts of the Midlands. The snowstorm was known as the 'Border Blizzard'. The depth of snow was reported to be over a metre high, with drifting causing roads and railways to be blocked. Nottingham received 15 cm of snow; Sheffield 50 cm, and snowdrifts of up to 6 m blocked roads in Derbyshire for several days. In Scotland, more than 30 cm of snow fell, while at Belvoir Castle, Leicestershire the heavy snowfall did much damage to trees and shrubs.

NORTH ENGLAND

RAIN 88.4MM 

2009 86.2MM 

MEAN TEMP 15.5C 2008 & 2012 15.4C 

2009 15.7C

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

1962

2010

 

2009

Both 2009 & 2010

2010

 

2009

 

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

2012 

 

2010

 

The second half of February 1948 was dominated by high pressure, which was at first over Scandinavia but it wasn't until the high pressure had moved to the north of Scotland that very cold air flooded the country on an easterly wind. Instability in the flow generated heavy snowfalls across England and Wales but the SE bore the brunt, where depths of snow were approaching 30cm and drifts of nearly 6ft in Kent. Not surprisingly, there was transport chaos. Further north over Scotland, closer to the high, it was largely dry with frosts at night but with some snowfalls in the east. Over the deep snow cover further south, frosts were severer as minima dropped to as low as -18C in some places.

2012 and 1936

https://www.facebook.com/dacotahprairiemuseum/posts/tbt-the-winter-of-1936-37-snow-started-in-october-ended-in-late-aprilwe-are-well/10155151986279493/

1936-37: Early December saw snow in Scotland, predominantly the North. Late February saw the next big snowfall, with a blizzard in many parts, 1ft recorded in Northern England and Scotland. Early March saw snow for Southern England. A blizzard swept through the whole northern portion of the UK in mid March. Snowy.

Year of the Big Snow in Salem was 1937 - Willamette Heritage Center

WWW.WILLAMETTEHERITAGE.ORG

---

The “Big Snow” hit Salem 80 years ago This past week we marked the 80th anniversary of Salem’s record-setting single snow fall day.  From 5:40 AM Sunday Morning January 31, 1937 through

AUGUST STATISTICS PART 2

MIDLANDS

MEAN TEMP

16.1C ALSO 16.1C 2008 AND 1989 

 

December 1989 United States cold wave - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

2009 16.4C 

2012 16.3C

scotland East

RAINFALL 

81.2MM 2010 80.9MM

MEAN TEMPERATURE 13.9C 

1976

13.8C 

1976-77: Heavy wet snow fell in early December, mid December, and mid January.

2009 13.7C

13.6C 2008

2012 13.4C

NORTHERN IRELAND MEAN TEMPERATURE  14.9C

SHARING YEARS

2020, 1911, 2002, 2021, 1933

 

1911–12 United States cold wave - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

1976 15.2C AND 2012 15.1C

2009 14.4C 2008 14.6C

western Scotland

MEAN TEMP 14.4C  

2012 14.1C 2020 14.2C 

1893 ALSO 14.2C 

 1893
(November) Over the period 17th/18th November, 1893, as a vigorous depression moved from SW Scotland to the southern North Sea, high winds caused considerable damage across northern areas of Ireland, much of Scotland (even normally sheltered spots), near the west & north coast of Wales & more irregularly inland elsewhere. Much loss of standing timber reported, especially noteworthy in NE Scotland. Lamb notes reported winds of at least Bft 10 or 11 in association with this storm.
There was also considerable snowfall across eastern Britain, with severe drifting (& consequent transport dislocation - e.g., stranded trains) as far south as the southern Home Counties around London. The combination of low temperatures and high winds also produced bitterly cold conditions.

14.5C FOR 1976 AND 14.6 1911

2009 AT 13.8C AND 2008 14C

102.9mm with the rain with 2010 near on 106.1MM

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

2009

 

2009

2010

 

2012

 

2010

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

August Stats Part 3

scotland North

mean temp 13.3C also that 3 year cycle which has been there in some of the previous Scotland Monthly data 2021 + 2022 only .1C off on 13.2C. plus 1893 1897 1933

WHILST RESEARCHING THE ABOVE I HAVE FOUND THIS WHICH HAS CERTAIN ASPECTS WITH 2023 SUPER EYE CATCHING DETAILS

 

 1870
(May) UNUSUAL SKY COLOUR - CANADIAN FIRES
Over the period 22nd/23rd May (1870), there were reports of unusual coloration to the sun: the exact colours are described differently, but initially white (not long after sunrise), then "purple side of red" or "dark red", then as the sun climbed higher in the sky . . . . "pink, inclining to purple", seems to sum up the observations from a wide area from Ireland & Britain to western mainland Europe; the phenomenon lasted several hours at any one location and the overall sky was described as 'hazy' (high dust loading); observers described the sun as if "shining through smoke" and "so dim it looked like the moon". Some reported seeing sunspots on the solar disk - looking directly at the sun, even through opera glasses and as no ill-effects were noted, we must assume that the sun's radiation intensity was significantly reduced.
The phenomenon was due to a major fire that had occurred in Canada 18th/19th May (i.e., 4 or 5 days previously) in the Saguenay region of north-eastern Québec. The spring had been unusually dry and farmers had ploughed their fields by early May. A huge forest/brush fire had broken out, with a strong wind fanning the flames, and the 'wildfire' spread rapidly (no doubt generating its own high wind field), the plume of smoke penetrating high into the troposphere. The fire spread so quickly and was so intense that some only had enough time to reach safety or the nearest area of water to survive without their valued possessions - and of course agriculture was severely impacted. By evening on the 19th May, the fire had largely burnt itself out, but by that time a huge plume of smoke particles was being carried towards the east (and eventually Europe) on the upper winds. (My
page)

 1870/1871
(Winter) A cold winter over western Europe / implied for parts of Britain. (Easton, in CHMW/Lamb). Using the CET record, the overall value for the three 'winter' months of December, January & February was 2.4C, representing an anomaly of roughly -1.3C on the all-series mean.

2009 13.1C AND 2012 13.0C

rainfall of 119.9MM

2012 111.8mm  2010 116.6MM 

2008 124.1mm

England_SW_and_S_Wales

100.7MM 

1875 100.1MM  

1875-76: Amazingly snowy winter for the UK, especially the South East early on, the first week of December dumped 1-2ft in some places, worst in the South East. March of this month had many snowstorms, and April recorded nearly 2ft of snow in the Midlands! Snowfall was recorded (on a notable scale), in November, December, January, February, March, April, and May! I would regard this winter as very snowy.

2012 16.1c 

1981 15.8C 2023 15.9c 1919 15.7c 

 

1919 (November):

The 11th (the first anniversary of the armistice), saw the start of a notably SEVERE/WINTRY spell. On the night 11th/12th, a SEVERE SNOWSTORM occurred, depositing 8 inches (20 cm) in the streets of Edinburgh, 12 inches over Dartmoor, and 17 inches at Balmoral.(GPE) Even in southern England, SNOW fell on 7 days or more during the month.

2009 15.6C

The 1982 blizzard when it snowed for 36 hours

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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The snow storm caused massive disruption, shutting schools and cutting off remote villages.

 

Philip Eden: January 1982 | weatheronline.co.uk

WWW.WEATHERONLINE.CO.UK

---

Disruptive snowstorms in the UK during the last ten years can be counted on the fingers of one hand, in marked contrast to the 1980s when they were two

wales

2023 mean C  15.2c 2009 15.0C 2012 15.4C 2008 14.9C

2023 RAIN 119.7mm

119.2mm 1837 

 

 1837/38
(Winter &
early Spring) This severe winter was called "Murphy's winter"; Patrick Murphy won fame and a small fortune from the sale of an almanac in which he predicted the severe frost of January 1838 (a 2 month frosty period set in with a light SE wind & fine day with hoar frost on the 7th (or 8th) January).
20th January 1838: Lowest temperatures (known / accepted) of the 19th century in London; -16degC reported at Greenwich about sunrise (close to minimum time), -20degC at Blackheath, -26degC at Beckenham (Kent). The temperature in Greenwich was -11degC at midday. The Thames at Greenwich was completely covered with ice at high water on the 27th January 1838 & elsewhere, ice floes were reported in the Thames or the Estuary.
Considerable snowfall across Scotland. However a late start to the winter, with as late as the 6th January, the weather being reported as mild with farmers well on with the work. After the 8th, hard frosts & snow then became a feature of the winter/early spring, with further notes of disrupted mails, hardship for people and livestock. In some parts of northern Scotland, snow was noted to fall on most days between January 8th & May 3rd. snow was also noted in upland areas of NE Scotland in June.
A cold winter across England & Wales. (Easton, in CHMW/Lamb): Using the CET record, the average across December / January / February was 1.4degC, or nearly 2 1/2C below the all-series mean. December was not particularly extreme, but January, with a value of -1.5degC, was in the 'top-10' of coldest Januarys, whilst February, with a mean value of 0.4degC, lay just outside the top-10 coldest such-named months in the same record. 6, 8,
CET

 1838 (February) THE 'BUDE BREAKWATER' GALE
1. On the evening of the 24th February, 1838, a southerly gale developed (" more violent than for years "), this veering west-southwesterly through the night and coincided with a high tide in the early hours of the 25th. The inside slope of the Bude Breakwater (built to protect the harbour/canal entrance between 1820 and 1822) gave way (?scouring / over-topping?), with three-quarters of the structure giving way. [ Apparently the mortar had been weakened by a severe frost in the winter; however, the structure was also deemed to have had too steep a slope, and the replacement breakwater was of much better construction, and has survived many a gale to this day/2003.] damage also occurred to sea structures all along the south coast of England, including the Plymouth breakwater.

1840 122.3MM

1840/41
(winter) Severe winter. All three winter months had CET anomalies considerably below average.

EAST ANGLIA 

RAIN 56MM 

1909 56.4mm 

 

1909 (December):

19th to 21st December: Scotland, Wales and England (except the south): HEAVY SNOWFALL. In Cardiganshire (Wales), the Peak District (central England) and along the Welsh coasts, roads were heavily blocked with SNOW.

 1909 / 1910 (Winter):

In a record starting 1900, one of only five winters (December, January, February) with 5 or more 'SEVERE GALE/STORM' episodes in a winter season: this one had 6

17.2C MEAN TEMPERATURE  2008 17.3C

2012 17.7C

northeastern and EAST Eng

 1882 (December) The heavy snowfall between the 4th and 8th December was the worst snowfall of 1882. Snow fell across southern Scotland, northern England and the northern-most parts of the Midlands. The snowstorm was known as the 'Border Blizzard'. The depth of snow was reported to be over a metre high, with drifting causing roads and railways to be blocked. Nottingham received 15 cm of snow; Sheffield 50 cm, and snowdrifts of up to 6 m blocked roads in Derbyshire for several days. In Scotland, more than 30 cm of snow fell, while at Belvoir Castle, Leicestershire the heavy snowfall did much damage to trees and shrubs.

1882 76.0MM 2023 74.5mm 2010 76.4MM

 

1883
(March) A 'normal' start to the month (first five days), but as the northerly airstream/[ex-Arctic] set in on the 5th/6th (see below), the weather turned dramatically colder. There were frequent severe frosts, with snow & hail reported throughout the month accompanied by strong gales (occasional further severe gales/see below, especially around the 10th/11th). Eventually, this March, with a CET value of 1.9degC (anomaly ~ -3C) turned out to be in the 'top 5' coldest such-named months in the series (from 1659).
6th: Northerly gales (F9, isolated F10 / squally) northern half of the British Isles. 23 fishing smacks from Hull were lost, with 135 crew-members dead. Over 70 other vessels were damaged. There was also a severe snowstorm over parts of Scotland (presumably north & east) as the cold air set in.

 

 1846/1847 74.8MM
(Winter) The winter of 1846/47 was noted for severe frosts and heavy rains across southern England. Using the CET record, December had a value of 0.5degC, at least 3.5C below the all-series mean; January and February anomalies were between -1 and -1.5C. The winter as a whole ranked within the 'top 10%' of coldest winters in this long established series. [CET] { Rainfall, using the EWP series, doesn't appear to be extreme (December relatively dry), but this series may not reflect local conditions. } On the Southampton & Dorchester Railway, then under construction, working across the soils of the New Forest proved to be very difficult. In a single week, a total of 13 horses became stuck in the mud and had to be destroyed.

2023 joins 2012 at 15.6C 2008 with 15.7C

AND 1944-45 15.6c

 1945 (January):

SNOW a feature of this month.
> 9th/10th: Bellingham (Northumberland) up to 60 cm of SNOW in the first half of the month.
> Later in the month, 22nd up to the 25th, South Wales & SW England experienced significant SNOWFALL (noted in JMet as on the 25th) with up to 60 cm in Glamorgan; Cardiff 45 to 75 cm (the latter figure is quite remarkable for a low-ground location).
> Later still, 29th/30th, HEAVY SNOW again affected the north of England and southern Scotland. Edinburgh had 25 cm on the 29th, while on the 30th, 25cm fell at Harrogate (North Yorkshire). SNOWDRIFTS of 6m blocked roads in Morayshire, Sutherland and parts of Dunbartonshire and in northern Scotland snowdrifts trapped many trains.

: Mid December saw snow in Western Scotland, although the amount isn't clear. In the first half of January, snow reached a depth of 2ft in Bellingham. Late January saw South Wales, and South West England bear the brunt (yippee!) with 1-2ft falling in this area, Cardiff seeing an amazing 30inches! Northern England and Southern Scotland also saw some snow late January, although again, details are sketchy. Very snowy.

and 

1904 also 15.6C(November):

There was widespread SNOW between the 20th and 23rd in 1904 when a large area of southern Scotland and northern England averaged 46cm of level snow, with heavy drifting in places.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

2009

2009, 1967 

 

1967 (December):

After a dry, fine (anticyclonic) first few days, as a precursor to a notably WINTRY season, an outbreak of Arctic Maritime air flowed across the country during the 6th & 7th. By the 8th, the COLD low-level air was well established. Up until the 11th, TEMPERATURES at one place or another remained below freezing point all day. (writing this in 2008, a most unusual occurrence nowadays.) In this, and another COLD SPELL (17th to 21st), NIGHT FROSTS were exceptionally SEVERE - the night of the 8th/9th was the coldest December night at Thorney Island (SE Hampshire) for 25yr. Minor disturbances (Polar Lows/Troughs) brought significant SNOWFALL for some; dislocation to transport occurred as a result of HEAVY SNOWFALLS in the northwest, and on/near the south coast of England (notably across Dorset & Sussex) on the 8th and 9th. On the 8th, 11 inches of snow (circa 27cm) lay at Brighton, with significant, but localised, transport disruption: this SNOW had fallen in only a few hours.

 1968 (8th/9th January): BIG-BEN STOPS; SNOW PLOUGHS TRAPPED!

SNOWSTORM for much of the British Isles (except some NE areas & far SW). In SW England, HEAVY RAIN / WIDESPREAD FLOODING. Elsewhere, after an initial period of RAIN (or SLEET), persistent precipitation / evaporative cooling allowed the rain to turn to SNOW, and this SNOW caused chaos. Big Ben stopped for 4 hr, many villages were cut-off; roads impassable in many areas. Over a foot (circa 30cm) of SNOW fell in the Welsh border counties and conditions were made worse by STRONG WINDS (generally up to 40 knots in GUSTS) causing DRIFTING (some reports of up to 90 cm). This SNOWSTORM has gone down in the history as the storm that trapped the snow-ploughs! Three council snow-clearance lorries were trapped over the West Berkshire downs on the Wantage to Lambourn road. There was also major disruption to the London airports (then Heathrow & Gatwick), and to Birmingham - (in the early 21st century, this snowstorm would have caused near-panic! (Prichard/Weather/JMet)

 1968 (15th January): CLYDE VALLEY STORM

A great STORM, possibly with TORNADIC activity, affected the Ayrshire coast and the Clyde valley. Vast DAMAGE to roofs of tenements, with around 20 people killed and some 2000 people made homeless. Gusts in excess of 100 mph (~160 km/hr or ~85 kn, not exact conversions).

 1968 (February):

A COLD & SNOWY month. HEAVY SNOWSTORM across the Midlands (of England) on the 5th. Heavy snow fell at Keele, Staffordshire for 12 hours, giving 37cms. Crewe station was blocked. Many roads blocked, particularly in Staffordshire. Widespread disruption to traffic in Birmingham; but only a little way away, in Nottingham, the precipitation fell as rain. It was only just cold enough for SNOW (HEAVY RAIN in Nottinghamshire) so the flakes were large/heavy, with a high water content. Power cables & tree branches (some whole trees) were brought down & the NW Midlands came to a virtual stand-still. (according to RJP/'Weather').

1978

 

Brutal Winter of 1978-1979

WWW.WEATHER.GOV

In September, the remnants of Hurricane "Flossie" merged with another depression in the Atlantic on the 16th to produce an intense depression with low pressure of 959 mbar to the north west of Scotland 

 

 1978/79 (Winter):

> COLDEST WINTER since 1962/63. In the Shetlands coldest since at least 1901.
> WETTEST winter at Southampton since 1936/37.
> Although the winter started mild & wet,SEVERE COLD set in around the end of December 1978, and with FREQUENT SNOWFALLS, the extended winter (i.e. to at least March) was assessed as the 'SNOWIEST' since that of 1962/63 for much of England, Wales and Northern Ireland: for Scotland since 1969/70. From an article by Stephen Burt in 'Weather': ... "1978/79 would seem to bear comparison with other severe winters of the last 100 years" (written in October, 1980).

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

2010

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Kirkcaldy Weathers Official 2023 >>> 2024 Winter Outlook

😃😎🪄🔮

I'll be conducting this in separate sections which cover the most significant phenomena contributions into winter 2023/2024.

Section 1

ENSO WITH QBO + STRATOSPHERIC WARMING RELATIONSHIPS

Perfect timing as an updated and cleaner laid out format containing excellent info which factors in the above categories has been made by Amy Butler ☺️😍

• 2023 has seen an increasing El Nino with major similar strength and peak C and time of peak as the 2009 event which rose to +1.7C and peak was around October and November
• The key combos for this coming winter then is Nino plus EQBO

Lets start with the years which contained the same formation as this coming winter Nino and EQBO WHICH FEATURED A SSW

1958/1959

DEC 

 

JANUARY

FEBRUARY

1965/66

This is a fascinating year listed as having dual SSW 

 

DEC 1965 8-Dec-65 16-Dec-65 18-Dec-65 16-Dec-65EE

FEB 1966 24-Feb-66 23-Feb-66 23-Feb-66 22-Feb-66EE

December

January

February

 

1968,69

 

December

jan

Feb

1968 (December):

One of the few 'WHITE CHRISTMASES' of the 20th century; heavy overnight SNOW in the Midlands and Wales had stopped by first light on Christmas morning, leaving a blanket of snow over a foot deep in the Welsh Marches and almost as much in the Cotswolds. SNOW was also reported further south. [ See my Christmas holiday files elsewhere on this site. ]

 1968/69 (Winter):

A notably COLD spell across the Denmark Strait / Iceland region (ICE reached north & east coastal Iceland by late winter - not known in recent/early 21st century years), coincided with the 'Cod War' between Iceland and the UK, when Iceland attempted to protect their fishing grounds from UK trawlers. Several British trawlers capsized due to superstructure ICING - which made the small ships unstable. A trawler support vessel [MV 'Miranda'] was stationed in the area, funded by the UK government, with an on-board meteorologist. [ At the time I was an Assistant in the Central Forecast Office, Bracknell - we had to plot special charts to support the forecasts for the fishing fleet and the Miranda. ]

 1969 (February):

On 7th February, 1969 the highest GUST (up to that time, beaten in 1989) at a low level station in Great Britain was recorded at Kirkwall in the Orkney's, 118 knots.
SEVERE BLIZZARD across the northern Isles, as a polar low slipping southeast across Britain on the 7th gave rise to exceptionally severe, near BLIZZARD conditions across the Midlands and East Anglia, along with parts of southern England.
On the 19th, south Devon was hit by a SEVERE GALE (easterly), causing considerable DAMAGE; at the same time, there was a good deal of DRIFTING SNOW over southern Britain.

1972 -- 1973

 

The Massive South Carolina Blizzard Of February 1973 Will Never Be Forgotten

WWW.ONLYINYOURSTATE.COM

---

The Blizzard of 1973 wreaked havoc on South Carolina's roadways and structures, causing untold millions in damage.

 

Dec

January

february

JAN 1977****9-Jan-77 9-Jan-77 9-Jan-77 EE

Dec 1976

January 1977

February 1977

1979/80

Dec 

January

FEB

FEB 1980 29-Feb-80 29-Feb-80 29-Feb-80 29-Feb-80 29-Feb-80 29-Feb-80EE

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

LOOKING INTO THE PATTERNS LINKED TO THE TOP 10 COLDEST MEAN TEMPERATURE VALUES 

composites only available back to 1948 

QBO AND SSW DATA ONLY AVAILABLE BACK TO 1958

ENSO data only dates to 1950

SCOTLAND WINTER RATINGS

• -0.32 1894 - 1895

• -0.06 1962 - 1963 

• 0.36 2009 / 2010 el nino

• 0.40 1978 - 1979

• 0.50 1946 / 1947

• 0.83 1940 - 1941

• 0.88 1950 / 1951

• 0.90 1976 - 1977 el nino

• 0.92 1939- 1940

• 1.05 1935 -  1936

years in the above which are listed as being EQBO

1963

1977-78

joining the above composites and pattern associations to this winters 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

WHITE CHRISMAS Stats and synoptic patterns

data I found listing all years 2021 back to 1959 which were classed as white christmases in at least part of the UK. BOLD REPRESENTS AN EL NINO CHRISTMAS

1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1968, 1970, 1972, 1976, 1978, 1980, 1981, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1988, 1990, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2004, 2009, 2010, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2021

1963 CHRISTMAS DAY  DECEMBER COMPLETE 

1965 dec  1965 christmas day 

1972 xmas day  December 1972 entire 

1976 christmas  DEC 

 2014 december xmas day

DEC 2015 I should also note the number of synchronicity to records set this year and 2015 has been present but definitely nowhere close to the number and close representation with years 2009, 2010 and 2012 to name a few as already shown in above posting. Plus checking QBO files the 2015>16 winter was a descending westerly 

 xmas day 2015 

 

I know there was 100% a white christmas in 2022 as an undercut of cold air turned the rain to snow from Northwest Scotland down to around Northwest England

"the Dickensian scene of widespread snow lying on the ground on Christmas Day is much rarer. There has only been a widespread covering of snow on the ground (where more than 40% of stations in the UK reported snow on the ground at 9 am) four times since 1960—in 1981, 1995, 2009 and 2010.”

Christmas Day 1981 December 1981 full month 

Christmas Day 1995 December 1995 entire monthly

2009 Monthly

 

2009  christmas day

2010 Entire DEC  Christmas Day 2010 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

When was the deepest snow on Christmas day?

The deepest lying snow on Christmas day was recorded back in 1981 when Kindrogan, Perthshire recorded 47 cm.

Snow depth (cm)

Country WITH Deepest snow on Christmas Day

 England 43cm at Buxton, Derbyshire and Malham Tarn, N. Yorkshire in 1981 and 2009

 Northern Ireland 17cm at Hillsborough, Down in 2010

 Scotland 47cm at Kindrogan, Perthshire in 1981

 Wales 45cm at Cae Poeth, Gwynedd in 2010

When was the coldest Christmas day?

Gainford in Durham holds the record for the coldest Christmas day recording -18.3 °C in 1878.

Minimum temperature (°C)

Country Coldest Christmas Day

 England -18.3°C at Gainford, Durham in 1878

 Northern Ireland -17.5°C at Katesbridge, Down in 2010

 Scotland -18.2°C at Altnaharra, Sutherland in 2010

 Wales -16.5°C at Llysdinum, Powys in 2010