Synchronicity with Historic Stats and Records, New Forecast Method 🤓🤠👨‍🏫

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Right I've been really excited to begin this thread What my aims within it are I've seen large number of synchronicity through 2023 with particular years which will be abundantly obvious as the thread develops. 

Those observations will connect with my post below 

Hope everyone enjoys following and I'm super hyped to share my thoughts connecting to this Winter  

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Particular focus toward 2008, 2012 however here are all available composite DJF 

 DEC 1995

JAN 1996 

FEB 1996

DEC 2005

JAN 2006

FEB 2006

DECEMBER 2008

JANUARY 2009

FEBRUARY 2009 

FAMOUS SNOW EVENT FOR SOUTHEAST - LONDON 

DEC 2012

JAN 2013 might not scream cold and snow but I've posted multiple examples previous of JANUARY 2013 which gave prime dynamic evolution of sliding lows

Widespread snow January 2013

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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A snowy spell of weather affected most the UK from 14 to 26 January 2013.

UK snow depths Saturday 26 January 2013 | Official blog of the Met Office news team

BLOG.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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As forecast, further snow fell across central, northern and eastern parts of the UK yesterday and overnight. The latest snow depth observations as of 0800 this morning for the UK are below. Redesdale...

FEBRUARY 2013

2009

2010

2008 - 2010- 2017

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

2012 

2020 

 

2012

 

2010

A lot of 2020 and 2009 too

2012

 

2009

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

starting on August stats

England SE and Central S

2023 69.5mm close historic amounts 69.8mm 1866 "

1866
(December) The final heavy snowfall of 1866 occurred on the 30th December causing many roads in East Anglia to become impassable, and for a 2.5 metre snowdrift to be found in Regent Street, London. [ see also entry below for early January, 1867.] x

 1867
(January) A snowstorm occurred between the 1st & 2nd, 1867 causing great hindrance to railway traffic. [ q.v. entry above for late December. ] Snowdrifts of 6 metres were recorded while 20cm of snow fell on the morning of the 2nd in the Home Counties [Presumably the original depths were in feet]. On the 10th, heavy snow blocked roads and railways in London. South Shields, Tyne and Wear and Peterborough, Cambridgeshire also received large amounts of snow as well as the rest of the east coast of England. Dover and Deal in Kent and Brighton, East Sussex, became completely cut off. More heavy snow occurred between the 22nd and 23rd January, with extensive snow in eastern parts of Scotland, blocking railways. 75 cm of snow fell in Aberdeen, with snowdrifts up to 6m high. The very cold weather with snow was also reported by John Oram from Co. Mayo, Connaught in NW Ireland - I intrepret his comments to imply that the event there was most unusual."

1857 70.8mm "

 1858
(mid-February
to
early March) A period of persistent cold set in during the middle part of February and ended sometime in the second week of March. In Connaught (NW Ireland) in specifically, the frost was noted as 'hard' on occasion, which suggests a strong anticyclonic spell given the location of the reports. As the event gave way, which occurred 10th/11th March in Ireland, then significant snow was recorded - this may have been a feature elsewhere across the British Isles, but I've no other data to back that up. [ORAM, CET]

71.4mm 2017

16.9C mean temp 2009 17.3C 2010 16.1C 2012 17.2C 2017 16.4C 2008 16.6C 1961 16.0C

ENGLAND NORTHWEST & WALES NORTH

MEAN TEMPERATURE

15.2C 2009 15.1C 2008 15.0C 2012 15.3C

RAINFALL 114.7MM 1882 114.5MM

 1882 (December) The heavy snowfall between the 4th and 8th December was the worst snowfall of 1882. Snow fell across southern Scotland, northern England and the northern-most parts of the Midlands. The snowstorm was known as the 'Border Blizzard'. The depth of snow was reported to be over a metre high, with drifting causing roads and railways to be blocked. Nottingham received 15 cm of snow; Sheffield 50 cm, and snowdrifts of up to 6 m blocked roads in Derbyshire for several days. In Scotland, more than 30 cm of snow fell, while at Belvoir Castle, Leicestershire the heavy snowfall did much damage to trees and shrubs.

NORTH ENGLAND

RAIN 88.4MM 

2009 86.2MM 

MEAN TEMP 15.5C 2008 & 2012 15.4C 

2009 15.7C

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

1962

2010

 

2009

Both 2009 & 2010

2010

 

2009

 

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

2012 

 

2010

 

The second half of February 1948 was dominated by high pressure, which was at first over Scandinavia but it wasn't until the high pressure had moved to the north of Scotland that very cold air flooded the country on an easterly wind. Instability in the flow generated heavy snowfalls across England and Wales but the SE bore the brunt, where depths of snow were approaching 30cm and drifts of nearly 6ft in Kent. Not surprisingly, there was transport chaos. Further north over Scotland, closer to the high, it was largely dry with frosts at night but with some snowfalls in the east. Over the deep snow cover further south, frosts were severer as minima dropped to as low as -18C in some places.

2012 and 1936

https://www.facebook.com/dacotahprairiemuseum/posts/tbt-the-winter-of-1936-37-snow-started-in-october-ended-in-late-aprilwe-are-well/10155151986279493/

1936-37: Early December saw snow in Scotland, predominantly the North. Late February saw the next big snowfall, with a blizzard in many parts, 1ft recorded in Northern England and Scotland. Early March saw snow for Southern England. A blizzard swept through the whole northern portion of the UK in mid March. Snowy.

Year of the Big Snow in Salem was 1937 - Willamette Heritage Center

WWW.WILLAMETTEHERITAGE.ORG

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The “Big Snow” hit Salem 80 years ago This past week we marked the 80th anniversary of Salem’s record-setting single snow fall day.  From 5:40 AM Sunday Morning January 31, 1937 through

AUGUST STATISTICS PART 2

MIDLANDS

MEAN TEMP

16.1C ALSO 16.1C 2008 AND 1989 

 

December 1989 United States cold wave - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

2009 16.4C 

2012 16.3C

scotland East

RAINFALL 

81.2MM 2010 80.9MM

MEAN TEMPERATURE 13.9C 

1976

13.8C 

1976-77: Heavy wet snow fell in early December, mid December, and mid January.

2009 13.7C

13.6C 2008

2012 13.4C

NORTHERN IRELAND MEAN TEMPERATURE  14.9C

SHARING YEARS

2020, 1911, 2002, 2021, 1933

 

1911–12 United States cold wave - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

1976 15.2C AND 2012 15.1C

2009 14.4C 2008 14.6C

western Scotland

MEAN TEMP 14.4C  

2012 14.1C 2020 14.2C 

1893 ALSO 14.2C 

 1893
(November) Over the period 17th/18th November, 1893, as a vigorous depression moved from SW Scotland to the southern North Sea, high winds caused considerable damage across northern areas of Ireland, much of Scotland (even normally sheltered spots), near the west & north coast of Wales & more irregularly inland elsewhere. Much loss of standing timber reported, especially noteworthy in NE Scotland. Lamb notes reported winds of at least Bft 10 or 11 in association with this storm.
There was also considerable snowfall across eastern Britain, with severe drifting (& consequent transport dislocation - e.g., stranded trains) as far south as the southern Home Counties around London. The combination of low temperatures and high winds also produced bitterly cold conditions.

14.5C FOR 1976 AND 14.6 1911

2009 AT 13.8C AND 2008 14C

102.9mm with the rain with 2010 near on 106.1MM

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

2009

 

2009

2010

 

2012

 

2010

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

August Stats Part 3

scotland North

mean temp 13.3C also that 3 year cycle which has been there in some of the previous Scotland Monthly data 2021 + 2022 only .1C off on 13.2C. plus 1893 1897 1933

WHILST RESEARCHING THE ABOVE I HAVE FOUND THIS WHICH HAS CERTAIN ASPECTS WITH 2023 SUPER EYE CATCHING DETAILS

 

 1870
(May) UNUSUAL SKY COLOUR - CANADIAN FIRES
Over the period 22nd/23rd May (1870), there were reports of unusual coloration to the sun: the exact colours are described differently, but initially white (not long after sunrise), then "purple side of red" or "dark red", then as the sun climbed higher in the sky . . . . "pink, inclining to purple", seems to sum up the observations from a wide area from Ireland & Britain to western mainland Europe; the phenomenon lasted several hours at any one location and the overall sky was described as 'hazy' (high dust loading); observers described the sun as if "shining through smoke" and "so dim it looked like the moon". Some reported seeing sunspots on the solar disk - looking directly at the sun, even through opera glasses and as no ill-effects were noted, we must assume that the sun's radiation intensity was significantly reduced.
The phenomenon was due to a major fire that had occurred in Canada 18th/19th May (i.e., 4 or 5 days previously) in the Saguenay region of north-eastern Québec. The spring had been unusually dry and farmers had ploughed their fields by early May. A huge forest/brush fire had broken out, with a strong wind fanning the flames, and the 'wildfire' spread rapidly (no doubt generating its own high wind field), the plume of smoke penetrating high into the troposphere. The fire spread so quickly and was so intense that some only had enough time to reach safety or the nearest area of water to survive without their valued possessions - and of course agriculture was severely impacted. By evening on the 19th May, the fire had largely burnt itself out, but by that time a huge plume of smoke particles was being carried towards the east (and eventually Europe) on the upper winds. (My
page)

 1870/1871
(Winter) A cold winter over western Europe / implied for parts of Britain. (Easton, in CHMW/Lamb). Using the CET record, the overall value for the three 'winter' months of December, January & February was 2.4C, representing an anomaly of roughly -1.3C on the all-series mean.

2009 13.1C AND 2012 13.0C

rainfall of 119.9MM

2012 111.8mm  2010 116.6MM 

2008 124.1mm

England_SW_and_S_Wales

100.7MM 

1875 100.1MM  

1875-76: Amazingly snowy winter for the UK, especially the South East early on, the first week of December dumped 1-2ft in some places, worst in the South East. March of this month had many snowstorms, and April recorded nearly 2ft of snow in the Midlands! Snowfall was recorded (on a notable scale), in November, December, January, February, March, April, and May! I would regard this winter as very snowy.

2012 16.1c 

1981 15.8C 2023 15.9c 1919 15.7c 

 

1919 (November):

The 11th (the first anniversary of the armistice), saw the start of a notably SEVERE/WINTRY spell. On the night 11th/12th, a SEVERE SNOWSTORM occurred, depositing 8 inches (20 cm) in the streets of Edinburgh, 12 inches over Dartmoor, and 17 inches at Balmoral.(GPE) Even in southern England, SNOW fell on 7 days or more during the month.

2009 15.6C

The 1982 blizzard when it snowed for 36 hours

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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The snow storm caused massive disruption, shutting schools and cutting off remote villages.

 

Philip Eden: January 1982 | weatheronline.co.uk

WWW.WEATHERONLINE.CO.UK

---

Disruptive snowstorms in the UK during the last ten years can be counted on the fingers of one hand, in marked contrast to the 1980s when they were two

wales

2023 mean C  15.2c 2009 15.0C 2012 15.4C 2008 14.9C

2023 RAIN 119.7mm

119.2mm 1837 

 

 1837/38
(Winter &
early Spring) This severe winter was called "Murphy's winter"; Patrick Murphy won fame and a small fortune from the sale of an almanac in which he predicted the severe frost of January 1838 (a 2 month frosty period set in with a light SE wind & fine day with hoar frost on the 7th (or 8th) January).
20th January 1838: Lowest temperatures (known / accepted) of the 19th century in London; -16degC reported at Greenwich about sunrise (close to minimum time), -20degC at Blackheath, -26degC at Beckenham (Kent). The temperature in Greenwich was -11degC at midday. The Thames at Greenwich was completely covered with ice at high water on the 27th January 1838 & elsewhere, ice floes were reported in the Thames or the Estuary.
Considerable snowfall across Scotland. However a late start to the winter, with as late as the 6th January, the weather being reported as mild with farmers well on with the work. After the 8th, hard frosts & snow then became a feature of the winter/early spring, with further notes of disrupted mails, hardship for people and livestock. In some parts of northern Scotland, snow was noted to fall on most days between January 8th & May 3rd. snow was also noted in upland areas of NE Scotland in June.
A cold winter across England & Wales. (Easton, in CHMW/Lamb): Using the CET record, the average across December / January / February was 1.4degC, or nearly 2 1/2C below the all-series mean. December was not particularly extreme, but January, with a value of -1.5degC, was in the 'top-10' of coldest Januarys, whilst February, with a mean value of 0.4degC, lay just outside the top-10 coldest such-named months in the same record. 6, 8,
CET

 1838 (February) THE 'BUDE BREAKWATER' GALE
1. On the evening of the 24th February, 1838, a southerly gale developed (" more violent than for years "), this veering west-southwesterly through the night and coincided with a high tide in the early hours of the 25th. The inside slope of the Bude Breakwater (built to protect the harbour/canal entrance between 1820 and 1822) gave way (?scouring / over-topping?), with three-quarters of the structure giving way. [ Apparently the mortar had been weakened by a severe frost in the winter; however, the structure was also deemed to have had too steep a slope, and the replacement breakwater was of much better construction, and has survived many a gale to this day/2003.] damage also occurred to sea structures all along the south coast of England, including the Plymouth breakwater.

1840 122.3MM

1840/41
(winter) Severe winter. All three winter months had CET anomalies considerably below average.

EAST ANGLIA 

RAIN 56MM 

1909 56.4mm 

 

1909 (December):

19th to 21st December: Scotland, Wales and England (except the south): HEAVY SNOWFALL. In Cardiganshire (Wales), the Peak District (central England) and along the Welsh coasts, roads were heavily blocked with SNOW.

 1909 / 1910 (Winter):

In a record starting 1900, one of only five winters (December, January, February) with 5 or more 'SEVERE GALE/STORM' episodes in a winter season: this one had 6

17.2C MEAN TEMPERATURE  2008 17.3C

2012 17.7C

northeastern and EAST Eng

 1882 (December) The heavy snowfall between the 4th and 8th December was the worst snowfall of 1882. Snow fell across southern Scotland, northern England and the northern-most parts of the Midlands. The snowstorm was known as the 'Border Blizzard'. The depth of snow was reported to be over a metre high, with drifting causing roads and railways to be blocked. Nottingham received 15 cm of snow; Sheffield 50 cm, and snowdrifts of up to 6 m blocked roads in Derbyshire for several days. In Scotland, more than 30 cm of snow fell, while at Belvoir Castle, Leicestershire the heavy snowfall did much damage to trees and shrubs.

1882 76.0MM 2023 74.5mm 2010 76.4MM

 

1883
(March) A 'normal' start to the month (first five days), but as the northerly airstream/[ex-Arctic] set in on the 5th/6th (see below), the weather turned dramatically colder. There were frequent severe frosts, with snow & hail reported throughout the month accompanied by strong gales (occasional further severe gales/see below, especially around the 10th/11th). Eventually, this March, with a CET value of 1.9degC (anomaly ~ -3C) turned out to be in the 'top 5' coldest such-named months in the series (from 1659).
6th: Northerly gales (F9, isolated F10 / squally) northern half of the British Isles. 23 fishing smacks from Hull were lost, with 135 crew-members dead. Over 70 other vessels were damaged. There was also a severe snowstorm over parts of Scotland (presumably north & east) as the cold air set in.

 

 1846/1847 74.8MM
(Winter) The winter of 1846/47 was noted for severe frosts and heavy rains across southern England. Using the CET record, December had a value of 0.5degC, at least 3.5C below the all-series mean; January and February anomalies were between -1 and -1.5C. The winter as a whole ranked within the 'top 10%' of coldest winters in this long established series. [CET] { Rainfall, using the EWP series, doesn't appear to be extreme (December relatively dry), but this series may not reflect local conditions. } On the Southampton & Dorchester Railway, then under construction, working across the soils of the New Forest proved to be very difficult. In a single week, a total of 13 horses became stuck in the mud and had to be destroyed.

2023 joins 2012 at 15.6C 2008 with 15.7C

AND 1944-45 15.6c

 1945 (January):

SNOW a feature of this month.
> 9th/10th: Bellingham (Northumberland) up to 60 cm of SNOW in the first half of the month.
> Later in the month, 22nd up to the 25th, South Wales & SW England experienced significant SNOWFALL (noted in JMet as on the 25th) with up to 60 cm in Glamorgan; Cardiff 45 to 75 cm (the latter figure is quite remarkable for a low-ground location).
> Later still, 29th/30th, HEAVY SNOW again affected the north of England and southern Scotland. Edinburgh had 25 cm on the 29th, while on the 30th, 25cm fell at Harrogate (North Yorkshire). SNOWDRIFTS of 6m blocked roads in Morayshire, Sutherland and parts of Dunbartonshire and in northern Scotland snowdrifts trapped many trains.

: Mid December saw snow in Western Scotland, although the amount isn't clear. In the first half of January, snow reached a depth of 2ft in Bellingham. Late January saw South Wales, and South West England bear the brunt (yippee!) with 1-2ft falling in this area, Cardiff seeing an amazing 30inches! Northern England and Southern Scotland also saw some snow late January, although again, details are sketchy. Very snowy.

and 

1904 also 15.6C(November):

There was widespread SNOW between the 20th and 23rd in 1904 when a large area of southern Scotland and northern England averaged 46cm of level snow, with heavy drifting in places.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

2009

2009, 1967 

 

1967 (December):

After a dry, fine (anticyclonic) first few days, as a precursor to a notably WINTRY season, an outbreak of Arctic Maritime air flowed across the country during the 6th & 7th. By the 8th, the COLD low-level air was well established. Up until the 11th, TEMPERATURES at one place or another remained below freezing point all day. (writing this in 2008, a most unusual occurrence nowadays.) In this, and another COLD SPELL (17th to 21st), NIGHT FROSTS were exceptionally SEVERE - the night of the 8th/9th was the coldest December night at Thorney Island (SE Hampshire) for 25yr. Minor disturbances (Polar Lows/Troughs) brought significant SNOWFALL for some; dislocation to transport occurred as a result of HEAVY SNOWFALLS in the northwest, and on/near the south coast of England (notably across Dorset & Sussex) on the 8th and 9th. On the 8th, 11 inches of snow (circa 27cm) lay at Brighton, with significant, but localised, transport disruption: this SNOW had fallen in only a few hours.

 1968 (8th/9th January): BIG-BEN STOPS; SNOW PLOUGHS TRAPPED!

SNOWSTORM for much of the British Isles (except some NE areas & far SW). In SW England, HEAVY RAIN / WIDESPREAD FLOODING. Elsewhere, after an initial period of RAIN (or SLEET), persistent precipitation / evaporative cooling allowed the rain to turn to SNOW, and this SNOW caused chaos. Big Ben stopped for 4 hr, many villages were cut-off; roads impassable in many areas. Over a foot (circa 30cm) of SNOW fell in the Welsh border counties and conditions were made worse by STRONG WINDS (generally up to 40 knots in GUSTS) causing DRIFTING (some reports of up to 90 cm). This SNOWSTORM has gone down in the history as the storm that trapped the snow-ploughs! Three council snow-clearance lorries were trapped over the West Berkshire downs on the Wantage to Lambourn road. There was also major disruption to the London airports (then Heathrow & Gatwick), and to Birmingham - (in the early 21st century, this snowstorm would have caused near-panic! (Prichard/Weather/JMet)

 1968 (15th January): CLYDE VALLEY STORM

A great STORM, possibly with TORNADIC activity, affected the Ayrshire coast and the Clyde valley. Vast DAMAGE to roofs of tenements, with around 20 people killed and some 2000 people made homeless. Gusts in excess of 100 mph (~160 km/hr or ~85 kn, not exact conversions).

 1968 (February):

A COLD & SNOWY month. HEAVY SNOWSTORM across the Midlands (of England) on the 5th. Heavy snow fell at Keele, Staffordshire for 12 hours, giving 37cms. Crewe station was blocked. Many roads blocked, particularly in Staffordshire. Widespread disruption to traffic in Birmingham; but only a little way away, in Nottingham, the precipitation fell as rain. It was only just cold enough for SNOW (HEAVY RAIN in Nottinghamshire) so the flakes were large/heavy, with a high water content. Power cables & tree branches (some whole trees) were brought down & the NW Midlands came to a virtual stand-still. (according to RJP/'Weather').

1978

 

Brutal Winter of 1978-1979

WWW.WEATHER.GOV

In September, the remnants of Hurricane "Flossie" merged with another depression in the Atlantic on the 16th to produce an intense depression with low pressure of 959 mbar to the north west of Scotland 

 

 1978/79 (Winter):

> COLDEST WINTER since 1962/63. In the Shetlands coldest since at least 1901.
> WETTEST winter at Southampton since 1936/37.
> Although the winter started mild & wet,SEVERE COLD set in around the end of December 1978, and with FREQUENT SNOWFALLS, the extended winter (i.e. to at least March) was assessed as the 'SNOWIEST' since that of 1962/63 for much of England, Wales and Northern Ireland: for Scotland since 1969/70. From an article by Stephen Burt in 'Weather': ... "1978/79 would seem to bear comparison with other severe winters of the last 100 years" (written in October, 1980).

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

2010

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Kirkcaldy Weathers Official 2023 >>> 2024 Winter Outlook

I'll be conducting this in separate sections which cover the most significant phenomena contributions into winter 2023/2024.

Section 1

ENSO WITH QBO + STRATOSPHERIC WARMING RELATIONSHIPS

Perfect timing as an updated and cleaner laid out format containing excellent info which factors in the above categories has been made by Amy Butler 

• 2023 has seen an increasing El Nino with major similar strength and peak C and time of peak as the 2009 event which rose to +1.7C and peak was around October and November
• The key combos for this coming winter then is Nino plus EQBO

Lets start with the years which contained the same formation as this coming winter Nino and EQBO WHICH FEATURED A SSW

1958/1959

DEC 

 

JANUARY

FEBRUARY

1965/66

This is a fascinating year listed as having dual SSW 

 

DEC 1965 8-Dec-65 16-Dec-65 18-Dec-65 16-Dec-65EE

FEB 1966 24-Feb-66 23-Feb-66 23-Feb-66 22-Feb-66EE

December

January

February

 

1968,69

 

December

jan

Feb

1968 (December):

One of the few 'WHITE CHRISTMASES' of the 20th century; heavy overnight SNOW in the Midlands and Wales had stopped by first light on Christmas morning, leaving a blanket of snow over a foot deep in the Welsh Marches and almost as much in the Cotswolds. SNOW was also reported further south. [ See my Christmas holiday files elsewhere on this site. ]

 1968/69 (Winter):

A notably COLD spell across the Denmark Strait / Iceland region (ICE reached north & east coastal Iceland by late winter - not known in recent/early 21st century years), coincided with the 'Cod War' between Iceland and the UK, when Iceland attempted to protect their fishing grounds from UK trawlers. Several British trawlers capsized due to superstructure ICING - which made the small ships unstable. A trawler support vessel [MV 'Miranda'] was stationed in the area, funded by the UK government, with an on-board meteorologist. [ At the time I was an Assistant in the Central Forecast Office, Bracknell - we had to plot special charts to support the forecasts for the fishing fleet and the Miranda. ]

 1969 (February):

On 7th February, 1969 the highest GUST (up to that time, beaten in 1989) at a low level station in Great Britain was recorded at Kirkwall in the Orkney's, 118 knots.
SEVERE BLIZZARD across the northern Isles, as a polar low slipping southeast across Britain on the 7th gave rise to exceptionally severe, near BLIZZARD conditions across the Midlands and East Anglia, along with parts of southern England.
On the 19th, south Devon was hit by a SEVERE GALE (easterly), causing considerable DAMAGE; at the same time, there was a good deal of DRIFTING SNOW over southern Britain.

1972 -- 1973

 

The Massive South Carolina Blizzard Of February 1973 Will Never Be Forgotten

WWW.ONLYINYOURSTATE.COM

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The Blizzard of 1973 wreaked havoc on South Carolina's roadways and structures, causing untold millions in damage.

 

Dec

January

february

JAN 1977****9-Jan-77 9-Jan-77 9-Jan-77 EE

Dec 1976

January 1977

February 1977

1979/80

Dec 

January

FEB

FEB 1980 29-Feb-80 29-Feb-80 29-Feb-80 29-Feb-80 29-Feb-80 29-Feb-80EE

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

LOOKING INTO THE PATTERNS LINKED TO THE TOP 10 COLDEST MEAN TEMPERATURE VALUES 

composites only available back to 1948 

QBO AND SSW DATA ONLY AVAILABLE BACK TO 1958

ENSO data only dates to 1950

SCOTLAND WINTER RATINGS

• -0.32 1894 - 1895

• -0.06 1962 - 1963 

• 0.36 2009 / 2010 el nino

• 0.40 1978 - 1979

• 0.50 1946 / 1947

• 0.83 1940 - 1941

• 0.88 1950 / 1951

• 0.90 1976 - 1977 el nino

• 0.92 1939- 1940

• 1.05 1935 -  1936

years in the above which are listed as being EQBO

1963

1977-78

joining the above composites and pattern associations to this winters 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

WHITE CHRISMAS Stats and synoptic patterns

data I found listing all years 2021 back to 1959 which were classed as white christmases in at least part of the UK. BOLD REPRESENTS AN EL NINO CHRISTMAS

1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1968, 1970, 1972, 1976, 1978, 1980, 1981, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1988, 1990, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2004, 2009, 2010, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2021

1963 CHRISTMAS DAY  DECEMBER COMPLETE 

1965 dec  1965 christmas day 

1972 xmas day  December 1972 entire 

1976 christmas  DEC 

 2014 december xmas day

DEC 2015 I should also note the number of synchronicity to records set this year and 2015 has been present but definitely nowhere close to the number and close representation with years 2009, 2010 and 2012 to name a few as already shown in above posting. Plus checking QBO files the 2015>16 winter was a descending westerly 

 xmas day 2015 

 

I know there was 100% a white christmas in 2022 as an undercut of cold air turned the rain to snow from Northwest Scotland down to around Northwest England

"the Dickensian scene of widespread snow lying on the ground on Christmas Day is much rarer. There has only been a widespread covering of snow on the ground (where more than 40% of stations in the UK reported snow on the ground at 9 am) four times since 1960—in 1981, 1995, 2009 and 2010.”

Christmas Day 1981 December 1981 full month 

Christmas Day 1995 December 1995 entire monthly

2009 Monthly

 

2009  christmas day

2010 Entire DEC  Christmas Day 2010 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

When was the deepest snow on Christmas day?

The deepest lying snow on Christmas day was recorded back in 1981 when Kindrogan, Perthshire recorded 47 cm.

Snow depth (cm)

Country WITH Deepest snow on Christmas Day

 England 43cm at Buxton, Derbyshire and Malham Tarn, N. Yorkshire in 1981 and 2009

 Northern Ireland 17cm at Hillsborough, Down in 2010

 Scotland 47cm at Kindrogan, Perthshire in 1981

 Wales 45cm at Cae Poeth, Gwynedd in 2010

When was the coldest Christmas day?

Gainford in Durham holds the record for the coldest Christmas day recording -18.3 °C in 1878.

Minimum temperature (°C)

Country Coldest Christmas Day

 England -18.3°C at Gainford, Durham in 1878

 Northern Ireland -17.5°C at Katesbridge, Down in 2010

 Scotland -18.2°C at Altnaharra, Sutherland in 2010

 Wales -16.5°C at Llysdinum, Powys in 2010

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

2012.1981.2008.2010.couple 2015s.1976

2010

1906

 

 1906 (December):

HEAVY SNOWSTORMS 26th-30th in much of Scotland, as a succession of polar lows/troughs moved south in an arctic airstream. Widespread SNOW elsewhere across Britain, the snow though not reaching the London area until early on the 26th. Severe transport dislocation across northern Scotland (Aberdeen and other centres isolated for at least 3 days), and snow disruption elsewhere over Britain.

The Great Snowstorm, December 1906

WWW.AMBAILE.ORG.UK

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The Great Snowstorm, December 1906

2012,2020,2008

2010

 

2010   1978   2009

 

 

Severe snowstorms across parts of Europe seen by Meteosat-1

WWW.EUMETSAT.INT

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Germany, Denmark, the UK and Ireland had severe snowstorms & blizzards during end of 1978.

Brutal Winter of 1978-1979

WWW.WEATHER.GOV

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

1923

1923 (December):

25th December: The final HEAVY SNOWFALL of 1923 occurred in Scotland and northern England on Christmas Day. Glasgow had 20cm, which was reported to be the heaviest SNOWFALL in the Glasgow area for 33 years. In Aberdeenshire, SNOW fell to a depth of 60 to 90 cm.

 1924 (January):

8th/9th January: all parts of Great Britain experienced HEAVY SNOWFALL. Depths in parts of London measured 15cm.

2012

1940

 

 1941 (January):

Much SNOW just after mid-month: The first major SNOWSTORM of 1941 occurred between 18th & 20th January: In Scotland & northern England, SNOW fell to a depth of 60cm, with 30 cm in parts of the Midlands. On the evening of the 20th, nearly 45cm fell at Birmingham. At Hoylake (Merseyside), SNOWDRIFTS were up to 3m high. In Scotland, the SNOWSTORMS were especially SEVERE, with parts of Sutherland & Caithness isolated by DRIFTS up to 4.5m. 50cm at Balmoral on the 22nd. BLIZZARD north-east England and southeast Scotland - noted at the time as the 'worst since March 1888'. At Consett, Derbyshire, SNOW DEPTHS of up to 4 feet (120 cm) reported.

 1941 (February):

18th to 20th February, 1941: BLIZZARD eastern England/southern Scotland with worst hit area between Tees Side and North Yorkshire. Six trains were buried in DRIFTING SNOW north of Newcastle upon Tyne, with over 1000 people on board. At Durham, snow depth 105cm and at Newcastle upon Tyne 70cm. Sunderland and Durham were completely cut off for a while. Considerable telephonic disruption due wet/freezing snow clinging to overhead telephone lines. (NB: First winter of the 'real' war after the phoney winter 1939/40: food shortages acute.)

1902

 

 1903 (February):

VERY MILD. CET value=7.1degC, amongst the top 5 mild Februarys in the 20th century. The anomaly on the 'whole-series' was well in excess of +3C & it lies firmly within the 'top-10' since 1659. Of particular note, we had to wait until the notably WARM period of the 1990s before this value was exceeded, with 7.3degC in the Februarys of 1990 & 1998.
A spectacular dry DUSTFALL: affected much of England and Wales on February 21st.
26th/27th: Deep LOW crossed Ireland & moved towards NE Scotland, with a reported PRESSURE of 953mbar at Dundee. WINDS to the south of its track brought WIDESPREAD DAMAGE - some DEATHS with communications widely disrupted. At Southport (Lancashire) around dawn, the WIND averaged BF11 (>=56 knots / 64 mph), with a GUST here of 80 kn. A passenger train was overturned as it crossed a viaduct in north Lancashire. In Ireland (then still part of the UK), the WIND was even stronger - possibly the worst storm (of wind) across the island since January, 1839. In Phoenix Park, Dublin nearly 3000 trees were blown down and much DAMAGE was caused to property in the City. Other towns/cities in Ireland suffered, e.g. Cork (a girl killed) and Belfast. Lamb reports that at Douglas, Isle of Man, the STORM of the night of the 26th/27th was thought to be 'probably of almost unprecedented violence'. Many shipwrecks both close inshore and on the high seas. (details from 'Weather Eye', Ian Currie & HS/23).

1896

1897
(January) Some of the few heavy snowfalls of this year occurred on 22nd/23rd January. Blizzards occurred between Aberdeen and Kent.

1955 

 

 

Extraordinary cold of February 1956: A True Beast

BRUENER45.WIXSITE.COM

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The beginning of February 1956 brought a brief but very extraordinary feed of cold air from Siberia over Europe including the UK and Ireland. Look how each day evolves here. 28th January, warm air advection is...

1962,1920 1939  1927

1920 (December):

Eastern and southern England: HEAVY SNOWFALL 11th/12th December - The SNOW was reported as 'very dry'. It fell without any wind, and as a result, no drifting occurred. Clacton (Essex) and Salcombe (South Hams of south Devon - Salcombe is a coastal place) received depths of 35cm. Further HEAVY SNOWFALL was reported daily until the 16th. In Plymouth it lay on the ground for 10 days. This was considered (at the time) to be the worst snow in the district since the blizzard of March 1891.

1939/1940 (Winter): FIRST WINTER OF WORLD WAR II

The winter of 1939-40 was not so intense as that of 1894-95, but was longer and SNOWIER. Using the CET record, the overall value for the combination of December, January & February was 1.5degC, some 2C below average TEMPERATURE. The key 'cold' month was January (see below).
January 1940 was one of the 20-or-so COLDEST Januarys in the CET record, with a value of -1.4degC (roughly 4.5C below the all-series average), and just outside the 'top-10' of coldest such-named months. The month started cold, but with a mild spell towards the end of the first week; however, bitterly COLD conditions set in with a vengeance during the second week, with some days of persistent FREEZING conditions, frequent SNOWFALL and biting winds. ICE FLOES were reported in the lower Thames Estuary ( TEC ). The month was notable for a GLAZED FROST event at the end of January 1940 (26th) as the bitterly cold conditions of the previous three weeks started to be displaced, though there was more significant SNOWFALL 27th/28th before the milder weather finally took over by the month's end.
January 1940 was quite a SNOWY month, especially for Scotland & England. On the 16th/17th, SNOW occurred in many parts of the UK. It was heavy in eastern parts of Kent & east Sussex, where deep DRIFTS occurred. 30 cm (possibly more) at Eastbourne, Sussex. On the 26th HEAVY SNOW over the north; four feet (circa 120cm) of SNOW in Sheffield on the 26th and 10 foot (circa 300 cm) DRIFTS reported in Bolton, Lancashire on the 29th. Most of England & Scotland experienced SNOWFALL during this last week. Much of Yorkshire, Derbyshire & Cheshire received between 30 and 60 cm. In Sheffield (South Yorkshire), 120cm of SNOW fell. The West Highland railway line in Scotland was blocked, with some villages isolated. By the 28th, 27 cm of snow lay at Pontefract (West Yorkshire), while as a direct comparison London only reported 15cm. On the 29th, the SNOWFALL on the western parts of the Pennines made a train snowbound a few miles south of Preston (Lancashire) for 36 hours. At Crawford (southern Scotland), 400 passengers were stranded for 6 days. [needs checking / corroboration].
[ Although the land war, as far as western Europe was concerned, was very much in its 'phoney' phase, hostilities on the high seas ( surface & submarine raiders ) ensured that trade was hit from early in the War; reduction of supplies was aggravated by the sometimes severe weather, though we were more self-sufficient (in food terms) than we are now in the 21st century, and our expectations as regards food availability and variety are higher in modern times. ]

 1927 (25th-26th December): WORST CHRISTMAS PERIOD BLIZZARD IN A CENTURY

During the late evening of the 25th, what is regarded as one of the worst SNOWSTORMS in the 20th century occurred. Most of the country experienced snow, but the south bore the brunt: undrifted depths up to 60-70cm over higher ground, with drifts in varying places up to 15 feet or more [over 4.5m] - many roads blocked (some for a week) with vehicles stranded. The snow was noted as 'soft & clingy', bringing down many telephone lines - at this time few such were in underground ducts.

The Christmas Blizzards of 1927 | Weather Shop UK

WWW.WEATHERSHOP.CO.UK

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The so called 'Christmas Blizzard' of 1927 was one of the worst blizzards of the 20th century to hit the southern UK.On Christmas Eve, there was a cold ENE'ly flow across the UK bringing with it snow

 

Edited September 27, 2023 by Kirkcaldy Weather

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

On 27/09/2023 at 21:59, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

1923

1923 (December):

25th December: The final HEAVY SNOWFALL of 1923 occurred in Scotland and northern England on Christmas Day. Glasgow had 20cm, which was reported to be the heaviest SNOWFALL in the Glasgow area for 33 years. In Aberdeenshire, SNOW fell to a depth of 60 to 90 cm.

 1924 (January):

8th/9th January: all parts of Great Britain experienced HEAVY SNOWFALL. Depths in parts of London measured 15cm.

 

1894/95
(Winter) Exceptionally cold / wintry from 30/12/1894 to 05/03/1895. To horticulturists and ice skaters in East Anglia, it was the winter of the ' twelve week frost '. Thousands skated on the frozen Serpentine in London, including a detachment of soldiers. Records from Cambridge Observatory show that there were actually air frosts on 70 of the 84 nights between 26th December 1894 and 20th March 1895. In particular, the mean air temperature recorded in London from the 26th January to 19th February was around -3degC: From the 9th to the 17th February, the whole of the Thames was reported as more or less blocked by ice-floes, some 6 to 7ft thick (circa 2m). [ It is not clear where this observation was made, but I suspect that this was referring to the Pool of London - a very important port for transfer of goods.] Water mains were frozen well below the surface to a depth of 2 to 3 ft (just under 1m).
January 1895: A lot of snow, both from frequent showers off the sea, and mid-month heavy snow over England and Wales with 1m or so of snow reported from Faringdon, Berkshire, and many places reported 8 to 15cm deep, with strong SE winds (classic block/anticyclone to NE of British Isles, with Atlantic frontal systems attempting to penetrate from the south & SW).
After a relatively mild spell mid month, renewed heavy snow in strong northerly winds with trains again getting stuck in NE Scotland & East/NE England.
The month of February 1895 stands out at Oxford as having the lowest average minimum temperature (minus 5.6 degC) and the highest number of ground frosts (27) for any February in the 113 years to 1993 at the Radcliffe Observatory. From the 9th to the 17th February the whole of the Thames was more or less blocked by ice-floes, some of them 6 or 7 feet thick. The non-tidal mid/upper Thames frozen at various times, with reports of an Ox being roasted on the Thames at Kingston & coaches (horse-drawn) crossed the river at Oxford. Similar tales of thick ice, with "roasts" etc., are listed for the Rivers Severn & Avon in Gloucestershire & Worcestershire & adjacent counties.
Second coldest winter in a Manchester long-period record (from 1888), comprising Manchester (Prestwich) 1888-1900; Manchester (Whitworth Park) 1901-1941; & Manchester (Ringway) from 1942.
The coldest winter was, as in many places in England & Wales, in 1962/63. However, in the CET series, the winter of 1894/95 did not appear in the top 7 cold winters, so the fact that Manchester stands out is interesting.
The UK lowest (known) air temperature was recorded during this winter: -27.2degC at Braemar (Grampian) on the 11th February 1895. [ It is equalled by the same value at the same place recorded on the 10th January, 1982. ]
February 1895 was a very dry month: in the EWP record, with 11 mm, it ranked within the 'top-10' of driest Februarys in that series (began 1766); some places in England (at least) had no precipitation whatsoever during this month.

 

 1981 (December):

December 1981 was the COLDEST (and probably the SNOWIEST) since the mid 1870s in the north and since 1890 in parts of the south. The coldest by the CET record (=0.3degC) in the 20th century & one of the COLDEST 10 such-named months in the entire record. SNOW lay for three weeks in many areas; At Braemar, Scotland, it was the coldest month on record, with a mean temperature of (minus) 3.4 degC, and 11 days with screen temperatures failing to rise above (minus) 10 degC. At many places from the Midlands northwards, the mean monthly temperature was below freezing point. HEAVY SNOWFALLS from the 7-8th (traffic dislocation in London on the 8th), and again on the 11th, HEAVY SNOWFALL in central and southern Britain (Heathrow=30cm; Gloucester=15cm or more) with BLIZZARDS for a time. On the 13th, further HEAVY SNOWFALL for northern Britain (temporary mild spell in south). By the 21st, SNOW DEPTHS reached 20 cm in parts of central and northern England and southern Scotland. (A 'fine' White Christmas' but no snow on Christmas Day itself!).
> At Shawbury (Shropshire) the night MINIMUM TEMPERATURE fell to -25.2degC early on the 13th December. This a record low value for December for England.

1981–82 United Kingdom cold wave - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

1982 (9th/10th January): COLDEST NIGHT IN ENGLAND (KNOWN RECORD) COLDEST WHOLE U.K. 20TH CENTURY

> With a morning minimum temperature of -26.1degC, this reading from Newport, Shropshire, represents the lowest night minimum temperature for England known. On the same night, Braemar, Aberdeenshire in Scotland equalled the lowest all-UK temperature of -27.2degC, previously set in 1895.
> Periods of SNOW for many parts of the UK. Heavy falls of snow, with SERIOUS DRIFTING occurred over a wide area of southern and central Britain 7th/8th. Major dislocation of road and rail traffic, with snow falling continuously for 36 to 48 hours in places. (The area of deep SNOWFALL was key to the achievement of the very low temperatures noted above.)

Jan 1811 Thames frozen over.

In 1809, a series of major volcanic eruptions heralded the arrival of a particularly cold period as the clouds of ash partially blocked out the sun. The decade from 1810 to 1819 was the coldest in England since the 17th century.

A brief history of snow | UK weather | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Britain's recent cold snap is nothing on the 16th century's Little Ice Age, or even New York's notorious 1888 blizzard, but we could learn a lot from past snow events

1933 (February):

In 1933 between the 23rd and 26th GALES and HEAVY SNOWSTORMS swept across much of Britain; this was probably the first occasion the Meteorological Office issued a forecast for road traffic dislocation due to snow to the general public. Described as a 'Great BLIZZARD' in Ireland, Wales, northern England, Midlands, southwest England: Whipsnade (Bedfordshire) up to 60 cm, and 45 cm at Harrogate, Yorkshire. The HIGH WINDS / GALES (easterly) in the west & north provided the mechanism for DEEP DRIFTING. Up in the higher southern Pennine towns, the depths were even greater, with level SNOW values of around 70cm observed at Buxton (Derbyshire) & Huddersfield (Yorkshire). There were reports in these areas of drifts of around 2 m, but of course in the highest parts of the Yorkshire Dales & North York Moors, for example, DRIFTS of at least 4 m were reported. Even across southern England, depths of between 15 & 30 cm were common. Many villages in South Wales and Yorkshire were isolated, with trains from Fishguard to London badly delayed.

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Winter 1947 brought a freeze to post-war Britain | Official blog of the Met Office news team

BLOG.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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If you’re old enough to remember 1947, then you’ll almost certainly have the winter as one of your most vivid memories of the year. For meteorologists and climatologists, the winter of 1947 was a standout year for the UK, but...

Winter of 1946–47 in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

2009

 

1914/1915 (Winter):

This held the honour of being the WETTEST winter in the EWP series for a considerable time with 423mm for December, January and February. 

1993/1994 (Autumn/Winter):

The England & Wales Precipitation (EWP) series doesn't do justice to the excessively WET conditions suffered by many parts of southern Britain over these seasons, but even so, it does demonstrate an excess of RAINFALL: for the months of September 1993 to March 1994 inclusive, the overall %age on the all-series mean was 130%. However, looking at the Hurn (Dorset) record reveals the true picture. Here, the total RAINFALL from September 1993 to February 1994 was 815 mm, representing over 170% of the long-term average. Further west, at Dorchester (Dorset), the 'standard' winter (December, January & February) was said to be the wettest for 100 years. The total quoted is 504 mm over these three months. It is no surprise that FLOODING was a feature of the winter & early spring (1993-1994) across many southern counties of England. (EWP, DWxB)

 1994 (February):

A COLD SPELL from the 11th to the 22nd was only 'unusual' in that it reminded people that the UK climate may be changing but not that much! On the 11th, SE winds heralded a steady drop in temperature and light snow flurries occurred widely on the 13th. The 14th was EXCEPTIONALLY COLD (compared to recent winters), with sub zero temperatures all day over a large area ( minus 3.5 degC max at Dunkeswell/upland east Devon; minus 1.5 degC at St. Albans where we were living at the time ), substantial wind chill, and further widespread, though light snow. Overnight, and during the 15th, heavier SNOW spread northwards, depositing some 4 to 10cm [ 8cm at morning reading on 15th, with up to 9.5cm over grass for a time during the snowfall at St. Albans ], followed by fog and a slow thaw in the south, but further snow fell over northern England on the 16th. Between the 16th and the 19th it was less cold in the south, but SEVERE FROSTS and freezing fog affected Scotland and northern England, and Strathallan School (near Perth) recorded a maximum TEMPERATURE of just minus 2.7 degC on the 16th, followed by a minimum of minus 13.8 degC the following night. Very cold east European air returned by the 20th, and widespread moderate SNOWFALLS followed, with Fylingdales on the North York Moors recording 22cm of undrifted snow. Milder air reached southern counties later on the 22nd bringing prolonged rain and much fog, but there was further snow over the next few days from the Midlands northwards.

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 1967 (December):

After a dry, fine (anticyclonic) first few days, as a precursor to a notably WINTRY season, an outbreak of Arctic Maritime air flowed across the country during the 6th & 7th. By the 8th, the COLD low-level air was well established. Up until the 11th, TEMPERATURES at one place or another remained below freezing point all day. (writing this in 2008, a most unusual occurrence nowadays.) In this, and another COLD SPELL (17th to 21st), NIGHT FROSTS were exceptionally SEVERE - the night of the 8th/9th was the coldest December night at Thorney Island (SE Hampshire) for 25yr. Minor disturbances (Polar Lows/Troughs) brought significant SNOWFALL for some; dislocation to transport occurred as a result of HEAVY SNOWFALLS in the northwest, and on/near the south coast of England (notably across Dorset & Sussex) on the 8th and 9th. On the 8th, 11 inches of snow (circa 27cm) lay at Brighton, with significant, but localised, transport disruption: this SNOW had fallen in only a few hours.

 1968 (8th/9th January): BIG-BEN STOPS; SNOW PLOUGHS TRAPPED!

SNOWSTORM for much of the British Isles (except some NE areas & far SW). In SW England, HEAVY RAIN / WIDESPREAD FLOODING. Elsewhere, after an initial period of RAIN (or SLEET), persistent precipitation / evaporative cooling allowed the rain to turn to SNOW, and this SNOW caused chaos. Big Ben stopped for 4 hr, many villages were cut-off; roads impassable in many areas. Over a foot (circa 30cm) of SNOW fell in the Welsh border counties and conditions were made worse by STRONG WINDS (generally up to 40 knots in GUSTS) causing DRIFTING (some reports of up to 90 cm). This SNOWSTORM has gone down in the history as the storm that trapped the snow-ploughs! Three council snow-clearance lorries were trapped over the West Berkshire downs on the Wantage to Lambourn road. There was also major disruption to the London airports (then Heathrow & Gatwick), and to Birmingham - (in the early 21st century, this snowstorm would have caused near-panic! (Prichard/Weather/JMet)

 1968 (15th January): CLYDE VALLEY STORM

A great STORM, possibly with TORNADIC activity, affected the Ayrshire coast and the Clyde valley. Vast DAMAGE to roofs of tenements, with around 20 people killed and some 2000 people made homeless. Gusts in excess of 100 mph (~160 km/hr or ~85 kn, not exact conversions).

 1968 (February):

A COLD & SNOWY month. HEAVY SNOWSTORM across the Midlands (of England) on the 5th. Heavy snow fell at Keele, Staffordshire for 12 hours, giving 37cms. Crewe station was blocked. Many roads blocked, particularly in Staffordshire. Widespread disruption to traffic in Birmingham; but only a little way away, in Nottingham, the precipitation fell as rain. It was only just cold enough for SNOW (HEAVY RAIN in Nottinghamshire) so the flakes were large/heavy, with a high water content. Power cables & tree branches (some whole trees) were brought down & the NW Midlands came to a virtual stand-still. (according to RJP/'Weather').

England NW and N Wales Rain for september 161.8mm

1967 160.9MM

 

1897
(January) Some of the few heavy snowfalls of this year occurred on 22nd/23rd January. Blizzards occurred between Aberdeen and Kent.

1896 176.7mm 2012 177.8mm

S Eng

2023 68.4MM

2012 65.6mm 2010 62.1mm 1864 68.5MM 

 

1865 - 
(January &
February) Heavy snow fell in the last week of January, 1865 between the 25th and the 31st, and there were further significant snow events throughout February in many parts of Britain. The snow averaged about 22 cm depth in some places, with snowdrifts of up to four and a half metres. In South Wales the snowfall is said to have been unequalled for forty years. Temperatures over lying snow cover were sometimes as low as -15degC. 

 

1954 (end January/early February):

SEVERE weather with bitterly cold conditions affected many eastern, central & southern areas of England from January 29th through the first week of February, as pressure remained high over Scandinavia (coupling with a strong ridge from the North Atlantic) & low over the near continent. The icy weather extended on initially strong, 'biting' east or northeast winds to Cornwall & the Isles of Scilly: day-time maximum TEMPERATURES at normally mild spots such as Falmouth failed to rise above FREEZING for several days. SNOW was a significant factor for many across southern Britain, with villages in Kent cut-off as snowdrifts of over 2 metres were reported. It was even harsher on the continent. (some of this from 'Weather Eye' / Issue 19 / Ian Currie)

67.7mm 1953

1961 (December):

As the Scandinavian/north Russian high pressure extended westwards from the 14th, the weather became progressively colder: 18th: Onset of period of SEVERE FROSTS lasting till early January 1962. Skating began in the south on 25th. The Christmas period was one of the COLDEST on record. TEMPERATURES fell to 12degF (converts to around minus 11degC) at Eskdalemuir on Christmas Day morning, and to 9 degF (converts to around minus 13degC) at Edinburgh on the morning of the 27th. On the 28th, TEMPERATURES remained sub-zero in many places.
Rain, preceded by SLEET & SNOW over southern England on the 29th, and SNOW was widespread in the Midlands and the North. On the last day of the year, there was HEAVY SNOWFALL in southern and central England, level snow extensively over 1 foot (30 cm) deep.

 68.1mm 1961

East northeast England

 

77.4mm 1863 

1864
(January) January had many days of heavy snowfall including the 7/8th, 11th, 18th, 22nd and 27th.

78mm 1857 

 1858
(mid-February
to
early March) A period of persistent cold set in during the middle part of February and ended sometime in the second week of March. In Connaught (NW Ireland) in specifically, the frost was noted as 'hard' on occasion, which suggests a strong anticyclonic spell given the location of the reports. As the event gave way, which occurred 10th/11th March in Ireland, then significant snow was recorded

2023 78.3mm

ENGLAND SE CENTRAL SOUTHERN

 

 1894/95
(Winter) Exceptionally cold / wintry from 30/12/1894 to 05/03/1895. To horticulturists and ice skaters in East Anglia, it was the winter of the ' twelve week frost '. Thousands skated on the frozen Serpentine in London, including a detachment of soldiers. Records from Cambridge Observatory show that there were actually air frosts on 70 of the 84 nights between 26th December 1894 and 20th March 1895. In particular, the mean air temperature recorded in London from the 26th January to 19th February was around -3degC: From the 9th to the 17th February, the whole of the Thames was reported as more or less blocked by ice-floes, some 6 to 7ft thick (circa 2m). [ It is not clear where this observation was made, but I suspect that this was referring to the Pool of London - a very important port for transfer of goods.] Water mains were frozen well below the surface to a depth of 2 to 3 ft (just under 1m).
January 1895: A lot of snow, both from frequent showers off the sea, and mid-month heavy snow over England and Wales with 1m or so of snow reported from Faringdon, Berkshire, and many places reported 8 to 15cm deep, with strong SE winds (classic block/anticyclone to NE of British Isles, with Atlantic frontal systems attempting to penetrate from the south & SW).
After a relatively mild spell mid month, renewed heavy snow in strong northerly winds with trains again getting stuck in NE Scotland & East/NE England.
The month of February 1895 stands out at Oxford as having the lowest average minimum temperature (minus 5.6 degC) and the highest number of ground frosts (27) for any February in the 113 years to 1993 at the Radcliffe Observatory. From the 9th to the 17th February the whole of the Thames was more or less blocked by ice-floes, some of them 6 or 7 feet thick. The non-tidal mid/upper Thames frozen at various times, with reports of an Ox being roasted on the Thames at Kingston & coaches (horse-drawn) crossed the river at Oxford. Similar tales of thick ice, with "roasts" etc., are listed for the Rivers Severn & Avon in Gloucestershire & Worcestershire & adjacent counties.
Second coldest winter in a Manchester long-period record (from 1888), comprising Manchester (Prestwich) 1888-1900; Manchester (Whitworth Park) 1901-1941; & Manchester (Ringway) from 1942.
The coldest winter was, as in many places in England & Wales, in 1962/63. However, in the CET series, the winter of 1894/95 did not appear in the top 7 cold winters, so the fact that Manchester stands out is interesting.
The UK lowest (known) air temperature was recorded during this winter: -27.2degC at Braemar (Grampian) on the 11th February 1895. [ It is equalled by the same value at the same place recorded on the 10th January, 1982. ]
February 1895 was a very dry month: in the EWP record, with 11 mm, it ranked within the 'top-10' of driest Februarys in that series (began 1766); some places in England (at least) had no precipitation whatsoever during this month.

1894 64.7MM 2023 64MM

2012 66.8MM

1944 63.4mm

 1945 (January):

SNOW a feature of this month.
> 9th/10th: Bellingham (Northumberland) up to 60 cm of SNOW in the first half of the month.
> Later in the month, 22nd up to the 25th, South Wales & SW England experienced significant SNOWFALL (noted in JMet as on the 25th) with up to 60 cm in Glamorgan; Cardiff 45 to 75 cm (the latter figure is quite remarkable for a low-ground location).
> Later still, 29th/30th, HEAVY SNOW again affected the north of England and southern Scotland. Edinburgh had 25 cm on the 29th, while on the 30th, 25cm fell at Harrogate (North Yorkshire). SNOWDRIFTS of 6m blocked roads in Morayshire, Sutherland and parts of Dunbartonshire and in northern Scotland snowdrifts trapped many trains.

Southwest Eng S wales

2010 116mm 2023 118.7MM 

North Ireland 2023 145.1mm 

as above 1967 144.8mm 

Midlands

1923 73.0mm 2023 73.8mm

 1923 (December):

25th December: The final HEAVY SNOWFALL of 1923 occurred in Scotland and northern England on Christmas Day. Glasgow had 20cm, which was reported to be the heaviest SNOWFALL in the Glasgow area for 33 years. In Aberdeenshire, SNOW fell to a depth of 60 to 90 cm.

 1924 (January):

8th/9th January: all parts of Great Britain experienced HEAVY SNOWFALL. Depths in parts of London measured 15cm.

 1933 (February):

In 1933 between the 23rd and 26th GALES and HEAVY SNOWSTORMS swept across much of Britain; this was probably the first occasion the Meteorological Office issued a forecast for road traffic dislocation due to snow to the general public. Described as a 'Great BLIZZARD' in Ireland, Wales, northern England, Midlands, southwest England: Whipsnade (Bedfordshire) up to 60 cm, and 45 cm at Harrogate, Yorkshire. The HIGH WINDS / GALES (easterly) in the west & north provided the mechanism for DEEP DRIFTING. Up in the higher southern Pennine towns, the depths were even greater, with level SNOW values of around 70cm observed at Buxton (Derbyshire) & Huddersfield (Yorkshire). There were reports in these areas of drifts of around 2 m, but of course in the highest parts of the Yorkshire Dales & North York Moors, for example, DRIFTS of at least 4 m were reported. Even across southern England, depths of between 15 & 30 cm were common. Many villages in South Wales and Yorkshire were isolated, with trains from Fishguard to London badly delayed.

1932 74.8MM

NORTHWEST ENG N WALES

160.9MM 1967 ONCE MORE 

2023 161.8mm

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Section 2 Kirkcaldy Weathers Official 2023 >>> 2024 Winter Outlook

Most synchronistic winter years connected with 2023 --- 2024

YEARS I BELIEVE ARE GREAT COMPARISONS FOR THIS YEAR 

BOLD ARE THE GREATEST SIMILAR FEATURES

 NUMBER 1 2009-2010. 2008/2009. 1976-1977, 2012-2013, 2010-2011. 1981-1982, 1962-63, 1967-1968, 1946--47

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Kirkcaldy Weather's Winter 2023--->24 Full summary ️🌨

I expect to see both rainfall and particularly Snowfall records at high risk of being broken given the water vapour a residual effect from Hunga Tonga still at incredibly significant amounts at nigh on all stratospheric height levels, interesting that a previous similar trend of that was there during 2012---13

I sent the following to @Mike Poole in DMs all the way in May

On 07/05/2023 at 21:33, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Still punting for a Tripole for late Autumn & winter, we're pretty much guaranteed unchartered territory with the SSTs 

 

Amazingly and I'm extremely happy seeing the latest SST output supporting this with that Warm Cold Warm like anomaly which I believe was active in 2010

OK let's see the style I'm expectant of evolving through December January and February

Starting with the progress of the El Ninò event we see this is at the stage of peak strength from October into January 

There is just the one region which is likely to see at least some warming from here on in which is the 3.4 zone

OK let's look at the scenarios heading into Winter, taking some of the monthly data 

December 

First we need to look at patterns currently in play and my views on how December develops.

I believe a key area continues being the strong high across the Pacific through Alaska 

In the next few weeks we should see low pressure toward Greenland with high pressure still highly active over the area above 

However once influences from the emerging cycle of MJO from the Indian Ocean to Pacific develop within future pattern evolution I believe a switching will begin 

Can already watch the Ninò begin to show and as January comes in the atypical Ninò 500hpa sets in 

Combined to teleconnective influence of the MJO,PNA AND NAO this will feed in strengthening Blocking whilst the Ninò Jet leads to an elongating Atlantic trough 

I expect January through a significant amount of February really sees the above increase 

 

The setup I see being dominant especially from Jan onward

 

Hope everyone enjoys reading my views, certainly seems I picked a cracking winter for my first EVER go at a winter outlook 🗯

[Uncertainty]

6 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Kirkcaldy Weather's Winter 2023--->24 Full summary ️🌨

I expect to see both rainfall and particularly Snowfall records at high risk of being broken given the water vapour a residual effect from Hunga Tonga still at incredibly significant amounts at nigh on all stratospheric height levels, interesting that a previous similar trend of that was there during 2012---13

I sent the following to @Mike Poole in DMs all the way in May

Amazingly and I'm extremely happy seeing the latest SST output supporting this with that Warm Cold Warm like anomaly which I believe was active in 2010

OK let's see the style I'm expectant of evolving through December January and February

Starting with the progress of the El Ninò event we see this is at the stage of peak strength from October into January 

There is just the one region which is likely to see at least some warming from here on in which is the 3.4 zone

OK let's look at the scenarios heading into Winter, taking some of the monthly data 

December 

First we need to look at patterns currently in play and my views on how December develops.

I believe a key area continues being the strong high across the Pacific through Alaska 

In the next few weeks we should see low pressure toward Greenland with high pressure still highly active over the area above 

However once influences from the emerging cycle of MJO from the Indian Ocean to Pacific develop within future pattern evolution I believe a switching will begin 

Can already watch the Ninò begin to show and as January comes in the atypical Ninò 500hpa sets in 

Combined to teleconnective influence of the MJO,PNA AND NAO this will feed in strengthening Blocking whilst the Ninò Jet leads to an elongating Atlantic trough 

I expect January through a significant amount of February really sees the above increase 

 

The setup I see being dominant especially from Jan onward

 

Hope everyone enjoys reading my views, certainly seems I picked a cracking winter for my first EVER go at a winter outlook 🗯

Brilliant mate. I share your views and have been struck by the continued support from the seasonal modelling. The question for me now is when will the flip occur…

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 11/10/2023 at 22:16, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Most synchronistic winter years connected with 2023 --- 2024

YEARS I BELIEVE ARE GREAT COMPARISONS FOR THIS YEAR 

BOLD ARE THE GREATEST SIMILAR FEATURES

 NUMBER 1 2009-2010. 2008/2009. 1976-1977, 2012-2013, 2010-2011. 1981-1982, 1962-63, 1967-1968, 1946--47

2009

 

2012

 

1976

 

2010

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Extending from my latest update here 

 

 

On 12/12/2023 at 18:24, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

It's all connecting really neatly from my POV which aligns to the current MJO cycling particularly phases 3 through 5/6

I mentioned the phase 3 setup would come into reality from mid December 

This coinciding with feedback of a positive North Atlantic Oscillation which I mentioned here  

Into December week 4 it's clear to see the feedback of phases 3 and 4 which drive surface temperature patterns across most of the Northern Hemisphere into above average scenario though most significant will be where the main blocks reside particularly Canada and the Maritimes then adjacent with a secondary high toward Russia. The below average surface temperature areas will be California and Mexico, Greenland, parts of Asia and across Alaska, maybe Florida 

As the phase 5 feedback comes through by Dec week 4 paired with the positive NAO and energies from the tropospheric vortex we'll need to be VERY mindful of storm developments / deep cyclones  

Use these as a general idea

Not surprising too watching as some strat warming is appearing also into Dec week 4 which was a timeframe ive had in my mind since Nov week 4

With the continuation of positive NAO feedback paired to recent MJO phases favouring an above average temperature scenarios there won't be any significant long lasting below average temperatures however as phase 5 feeds into the positive NAO in around 6/7 days time this will bring the tropospheric vortex stretching from the Alaskan trough into the Standard below average heights from Greenland and into the phase 5 setup with this extending across to Scandinavia 

The biggest surface temperature anoms below average for the UK are most probable across northern Britain 

Below avg 850hpa temperatures will extend across a wide swathe of the UK and into Scandinavia 

This below average period will face a quick retraction once again as the trough becomes refocused further north northwest back toward Greenland as colder conditions once again becoming focused in Asia, California, Alaska, Greenland, potentially Florida plus Mexico 

Further synchronicity with 2012

[LetItSnow!]

On 11/10/2023 at 22:16, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Section 2 Kirkcaldy Weathers Official 2023 >>> 2024 Winter Outlook

Most synchronistic winter years connected with 2023 --- 2024

YEARS I BELIEVE ARE GREAT COMPARISONS FOR THIS YEAR 

BOLD ARE THE GREATEST SIMILAR FEATURES

 NUMBER 1 2009-2010. 2008/2009. 1976-1977, 2012-2013, 2010-2011. 1981-1982, 1962-63, 1967-1968, 1946--47

 

I know you meant for just the winter but I thought it would be interesting to look at the composite anomalies for these years to see what the year would be like.

 January 2024 one to remember. Deep locked in cold and snowmaggedon... Hmm, I won't make bets on this. 

 February 2024 is a similar pattern but a little flimsier. That would be similar to in my predictions thread, a gradual relaxation of the cold further south - Or Feb 2021 style.

 March 2024 still with the southerly tracking jet stream, so probably further cold shots and unsettled conditions. Cold, wet and dull.

 April 2024 would be a major flip to a very warm and probably dry month. Pressure not quite close enough for an April like 2007/2011 but maybe 1987/2018.

 May 2024 not as warm and dry relatively, but with a blocking signal to the east I'd expect it to be on the warm side but unsettled with mild nights. May 2002/2006 vibes.

 June 2024 would probably be classified as poor. Maybe some warm, thundery pulses from the southeast at times so temperatures not overly cool but no heatwave either.

 July 2024 maybe one of those months that is poor in the south but fine in the north, depends on whether winds would be NE or SE.

 August 2024 would be far more clearcut - A soaker! Probably cool too.

 September 2024 in typical fashion reverts to a warmer, drier pattern after a poor summer. Unsettled further north but probably decent further south.

 October 2024 would be our first dry one in years! I imagine maybe on the cool side too - maybe with some seasonably cold nights but fine days.

 November 2024 would turn very wet and probably stormy too - And no doubt mild/very mild as well.

 December 2024 is not without interest! That stormy signal being shunted further south. I imagine maybe something like Dec '78 - Mild and wet but progressively colder.

Seasonal analogues

 Plenty of cold potential for January/February combined

 A mild and changeable spring. Perhaps another year with early heat spikes across the continent if that came off.

 Probably a cool and wet summer pattern for us with a southerly tracking jet stream, but maybe some hot, thundery weather from the SE if it backed that way.

 Changeable and rather warm/mild for the autumn.

 

All this is just for fun. Any excuse to bring out the composites! They're fun to look at.

 

 

Edited December 17, 2023 by LetItSnow!
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