Synchronicity with Historic Stats and Records, New Forecast Method 🤓🤠👨‍🏫

[damianslaw]

On 15/12/2023 at 14:42, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Extending from my latest update here 

 

 

With the continuation of positive NAO feedback paired to recent MJO phases favouring an above average temperature scenarios there won't be any significant long lasting below average temperatures however as phase 5 feeds into the positive NAO in around 6/7 days time this will bring the tropospheric vortex stretching from the Alaskan trough into the Standard below average heights from Greenland and into the phase 5 setup with this extending across to Scandinavia 

The biggest surface temperature anoms below average for the UK are most probable across northern Britain 

Below avg 850hpa temperatures will extend across a wide swathe of the UK and into Scandinavia 

This below average period will face a quick retraction once again as the trough becomes refocused further north northwest back toward Greenland as colder conditions once again becoming focused in Asia, California, Alaska, Greenland, potentially Florida plus Mexico 

Further synchronicity with 2012

Interesting comparisons with 12-13. The winter started on a cold note not too disimiliar to this year, but it held longer into Dec, imploding by mid month to give a very mild wet atlantic 4 week period until the effects of the early Jan SSW were felt by about 13 Jan.. generaly cold thereafter..

I was hoping for something more akin 09-10 surfacing by now, but this winter has started quite differently to winter 09-10. I don't think we were were far off seeing something similiar alas not to be.. not to say Jan onwards won't bring something akin to 09-10. 

Edited December 17, 2023 by damianslaw

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

SUPER Excited to bring this update for many many reasons 🌨🌨

I've been working on a project for a number of months, it's focusing on a precursor of stratospheric / sudden stratospheric warmings which comes from this paper 

 

Just a moment...

RMETS.ONLINELIBRARY.WILEY.COM

Sometimes the papers don't link correctly it's titled 

Some of My findings to this current timeframe might need to continue adding once all my bookmarks load.

 

 

Those who regularly follow my posts will know I've shown for the past few months approx how the typical precursor setups which tend to lead into weakened vortex events and increased odds of stratospheric & sudden stratospheric warmings have been present. 

Why are we seeing a shift in the 500hpa setups progressing through January?

I'll begin with the MJO which will be working into the feedbacks of phases 6 through 1 generally.

With Ninò influence 

Phase 6 which is fitting with the pattern we've had during recent weeks

Phase 7 which again fits with recent and ongoing scenario 

As phase 8 feedback starts this is when the pattern begins to adjust as the high from the Maritimes across Canada transitions to cyclonic developments

Taking the general MJO setup this transition into cyclonic development towards the Maritimes and Canada is seen with phase 6 in December too

Here is where the setup which becomes  

Note again our cyclonic developments from the Maritimes into Canada, troughing taking shape towards Scandinavia and the Baltics, increasing high pressure to the north of the UK. Increasing high pressure >> Blocking in Greenland 

This idea is also found overall in the JMA MJO plots again phases 6 through 8

 

 

 

On 08/11/2023 at 16:45, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Can already watch the Ninò begin to show and as January comes in the atypical Ninò 500hpa sets in 

Combined to teleconnective influence of the MJO,PNA AND NAO this will feed in strengthening Blocking whilst the Ninò Jet leads to an elongating Atlantic trough 

I expect January through a significant amount of February really sees the above increase

 

One of the biggest contributing teleconnections feeding in is the PNA 

 

Pretty neat as this will feed onto a -NAO feedback which also connects great with the MJO discussion above 

Awesome evolution as the high which i covered in my previous update which is bringing above average scenarios into East Asia - Korea and Japan particularly this with time transitions into a new trough which is shown in the right column above 

And looking closer with the El Ninò and El Ninò w SSW both are akin and tie great with all the above teleconnections input 

Easterly QBO factors in again too 

Plus the associated patterns with -NAO & El Ninò + -NAO

 

Current timing puts the MJO into the Maritimes [increased cyclonic developments noted in this post] as we get toward mid January ie latter Jan week 2

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 11/10/2023 at 22:16, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Section 2 Kirkcaldy Weathers Official 2023 >>> 2024 Winter Outlook

Most synchronistic winter years connected with 2023 --- 2024

YEARS I BELIEVE ARE GREAT COMPARISONS FOR THIS YEAR 

BOLD ARE THE GREATEST SIMILAR FEATURES

 NUMBER 1 2009-2010. 2008/2009. 1976-1977, 2012-2013, 2010-2011. 1981-1982, 1962-63, 1967-1968, 1946--47

 

1 minute ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Wanted to do a longer post and look into just how severe and extreme the past few weeks have been. 

A lot of the years that the past few weeks of cold anomalies are comparable with are among the top analogues from my winter outlook 

Starting with the UK and European countries such as France. The peak of cold conditions appear to have been during January 18th > 19th, I took the following screenshot during early hours of the 19th as a bit of a reference, credit coolwx

How coolwx works is by displaying the following values

Many of the values were around 50 or so years in Magnitude though there could very well have been some which surpassed this.

 

 

 

 

 

CANADA AND USA

There are numerous states in which the January 2024 records are comparable with some of the coldest winter weather events in recorded history like 1947 and 1962/1963 and other extreme events such as February 2021 and February/ March 2018 and December 2022.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

One of the most noteable records here as it breaks the prior record by quite a large amount 2.9C and thats a weekly period too

 

These too

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[LetItSnow!]

On 17/12/2023 at 19:26, LetItSnow! said:

I know you meant for just the winter but I thought it would be interesting to look at the composite anomalies for these years to see what the year would be like.

Well so far these composite anomalie charts have been as useful as a chocolate teapot