Why did summer 2023 feel worse than stats suggest?

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Just now, Beanz said:

I’m pretty sure I’ve said the same myself many times in recent posts - you’re preaching to the converted

Lol at myself then, however the rest of my post is pretty much the case.    

[Beanz]

1 minute ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Lol at myself then, however the rest of my post is pretty much the case.    

I’ll laugh with you by all means, but I’m completely lost now! 
 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Think @Beanzif we are looking at niño summers this summer didn’t fare as bad as it could have.  Niño summers often have one very wet month, which in this case it turned out to be July which in turn this summer had things in common with 1997 and 2009.  1997 for overall average CET and 2009 for a more general pattern although June was very similar to 1976.    

[hillbilly]

That is the problem with ststistics,it does not give a true picture.Me as a Farmer sees it a bit different.It hasnt been very wet or cold but it has been consistantly unsettled without any meaningful dry,sunny spells in the whole of July and August.Here in the Pennines we managed to make a little hay at the very end of June but had to wait until September 5th to do the rest.Never in my memory from the early 70's has that happened,no hay in July and August,not even the dreadful 2008 and 2012 could do that!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

5 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

That is the problem with ststistics,it does not give a true picture.Me as a Farmer sees it a bit different.It hasnt been very wet or cold but it has been consistantly unsettled without any meaningful dry,sunny spells in the whole of July and August.Here in the Pennines we managed to make a little hay at the very end of June but had to wait until September 5th to do the rest.Never in my memory from the early 70's has that happened,no hay in July and August,not even the dreadful 2008 and 2012 could do that!

How will that impact on winter for you?

[hillbilly]

1 hour ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

How will that impact on winter for you?

Sorry i still describe myself as a Farmer as i was brought up as and worked as until 2000 but now i have changed careers and just help out in Summer.The hay we make will feed cows,and sheep but quite a bit gets sold as horsefeed as it commends a good price but this year the quality is not so good because it was cut 2 months late so the horses will not like it.

[IcySpicy]

Now that the extended summer period (May-Sept) is over, I'll also give my thoughts on the season.

Here in Estonia we had many of the same weather patterns as in the UK (very dry and sunny June, followed by a dull July and then a pretty average August). For all 3 months together, I think we ended up with slightly above average mean temperature and around average rain and sunshine (although the latter two were definitely held up by the sunny June...). May was also very sunny  (although had some very cold nights) and September was very warm.

But here the problem was also the timing of the worst weather. It turned unsettled exactly on the 1st of July and that spell lasted until the second week of August. We had better luck than the UK with weekend weather, but still almost every single day in July it rained at some point. We also didn't reach 30C that moonth. Here all of July and the first 15-20 days of August are peak holiday season.... and most of it was a write-off apart from the 15-16th of July, 5-6th of August and the week from the 12th to 19th of August. The only positive was that even the cooler days weren't that cold, it was mostly 18 - 22C and not like 15-16C. But often it was very cloudy and dull, so not really great weather for summer activities like swimming, camping, BBQs.

I think if June and July were reversed it wouldn't have felt like a bad summer, as the first half of June often still has a spring-like feel to it and cooler temperatures are more tolerable. Another factor is the major fail from the long term forecasts, all were going for a warm and dry month right until the pattern change. Blindly trusting those forecasts is not a great idea but June was going well up to that point and the blocked pattern seemed locked in, so I think we simply weren't expecting such a 180 turn and for those conditions to last as long as they did.

But looking back on it and taking May and September into account, I think it was overall a pretty decent summer season/warm half of the year. Not a classic by any means, but we've had worse stinkers like 2012, 2015 and 2017. And even 2021 and 2022 weren't perfect here. 2021 for example had a record breakingly hot June and July, but May, August and September were all colder than average. 2022 had all three summer months above average, but again, May and September were very cold. I think I still prefer a hot July over a very warm May or September, but it still sucks if those months are very cold and thus make the summer season feel very short

 

[alexisj9]

It still feels like summer here, probably will be more like July 2023 here from Wednesday, as in similar temps but wet, we didn't get things as bad as further west or north here.

[Catbrainz]

4 hours ago, IcySpicy said:

Now that the extended summer period (May-Sept) is over, I'll also give my thoughts on the season.

Here in Estonia we had many of the same weather patterns as in the UK (very dry and sunny June, followed by a dull July and then a pretty average August). For all 3 months together, I think we ended up with slightly above average mean and around average rain and (although the latter two were definitely held up by the sunny June...). May was also very sunny  (although had some very cold nights) and was very warm.

But here the problem was also the timing of the worst weather. It turned unsettled on the 1st of July and that spell lasted until the second week of August. We had better luck than the UK with weekend weather, but still almost every single day in July it rained at some point. We also didn't reach 30C that moonth. Here all of July and the 15-20 days of August are peak holiday season.... and most of it was a write-off from the 15-16th of July, 5-6th of August and the week from the 12th to 19th of August. The only positive was that even the cooler days weren't that cold, it was mostly 18 - 22C and not like 15-16C. But often it was very cloudy and dull, so not really great weather for summer activities like swimming, camping, BBQs.

I think if June and July were reversed it wouldn't have felt like a bad summer, as the half of June often still has a spring-like feel to it and cooler temperatures are more tolerable. Another factor is the major fail from the long term forecasts, all were going for a warm and dry right until the pattern change. Blindly trusting those forecasts is not a great but June was going well up to that point and the blocked pattern seemed locked in, so I think we weren't expecting such a 180 turn and for those conditions to last as long as they did.

But looking back on it and taking May and September into account, I think it was overall a pretty decent summer season/warm half of the year. Not by any means, but we've had worse stinkers like 2012, 2015 and 2017. And even 2021 and 2022 weren't perfect here. 2021 for had a record breakingly hot June and July, but May, August and September were all colder than average. 2022 had all three summer months above average, but again, May and September were very cold. I think I still prefer a hot July over a very warm May or September, but it still sucks if those months are very cold and make the summer season feel very short

 

Ive had the same thought as you regarding June/July if they were swapped with a poor June followed by a outstanding July then a average August it'd be seen as a fair bit better. Say something like June 2012 or 2016 (Both very poor for the UK) followed by a July 2013/2018/2022 then this years August it'd be seen as a good summer overall. I would say overall it was a meh summer not terrible but not good 4.5/10 overall counting May and Sept both of which were good months here this year but 3/10 counting only Jun-Aug. Better than say 2007 or 2012 

[IcySpicy]

5 minutes ago, Catbrainz said:

Ive had the same thought as you regarding June/July if they were swapped with a poor June followed by a outstanding July then a average August it'd be seen as a fair bit better. Say something like June 2012 or 2016 (Both very poor for the UK) followed by a July 2013/2018/2022 then this years August it'd be seen as a good summer overall. I would say overall it was a meh summer not terrible but not good 4.5/10 overall counting May and Sept both of which were good months here this year but 3/10 counting only Jun-Aug. Better than say 2007 or 2012 

Yeah, poor June - good July - average August is probably the best combination for a mixed summer. Here in Estonia 2014 was like that and most remember that year as a good summer. That year we had nice spring, which culminated with a short heatwave in May. Then in June we had 3 weeks of horrible weather. It truly was rank, some days only reaching mid-teens with strong northerly winds. I think some places even recorded a sleet shower. But in July the weather did a 180 (exactly the opposite of this year...) and all of July was dry and hot. The heat continued into the first half of August. Everyone had forgotten about the horrible June by then.

Here I'd rate Summer 2023 a 6.5/10 counting May-Sept ( I'm generous here because the last few years (2020-2022) we had horribly cold springs and having to endure 10C temperatures in May is torture after our long winters, so this May felt great by comparison). Only counting Jun-Aug I'd rate it around 4.5-5 /10 (mostly thanks to June and a pretty nice mid-August period). July on its own deserves a 2/10 though.