Why did summer 2023 feel worse than stats suggest?

[WYorksWeather]

(Mods - please move this thread to historic weather if it's more suitable there. Thought I'd put it here as it's still fairly topical, apologies if this is a mistake but I'm quite new around here.)

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I noticed that there's been a lot of discussion as to how to rank summer 2023 - and also questions around how the overall stats seem quite flattering compared to how the summer has subjectively felt.

I've based the analysis below on the mean Central England Temperature. Of course, sunshine hours and rainfall amounts would further add to the discussion, but temperature is a good starting point. I opted to round all final CET values in my analysis to 0.1C.

Summer 2023 - overall

The first thing I did was to compare Summer 2023 to every year since 1991 (the 1991-2020 average, plus the last three years). Amongst those years, this year ranks quite strongly, at 16.5C. That puts it at joint 6th with 1997 and 2021. The coolest summers are 1993 and 2011 which are both at 14.9C, and the warmest is 2018 at 17.4C. Taking a shorter-term outlook of just the last ten years from 2014-2023, 2023 ranks joint 3rd with 2021.

So all in all, this summer has not been a classic from a temperature perspective, but solidly above average. However, that isn't the whole story...

Summer 2023 - the holiday period

Of course, for a lot of people, summer is about the holiday period when schools are out. To make this comparable from year-to-year (and without wasting a huge amount of time figuring out term dates), I've assumed that the holiday period encompasses the last 10 days of July, all of August, and the first five days of September.

For summer 2023, this results in a figure of 16.5C (coincidentally the same as the overall figure!), which places it in a four-way tie for 18th position, just below halfway. The range is from 14.7C in 1993 to 18.8C in 1995. Out of the last ten years, Summer 2023 ranks 7th.

Summary

Overall, Summer 2023 comes out above average from a statistical point of view - albeit not a classic. However, if you focus on the summer holiday period, it's definitely been a below average season - but not amongst the very worst. Either view is fine - it depends on what you're looking at.

[alexisj9]

Amount of cloud and rain in July, temp wise, would have been cooler a few years back.

[Sun Chaser]

It's definitely not the temperature that was the main issue. It was more about cloud and rainfall - July 2023 was widely both wetter and duller than the infamous July 2012, with August not turning out all that much better with it being especially dull in the west.

It's an odd summer as June was a classic, by temperature and sunshine (though in certain areas it came out average rainfall wise due to occasional downpours). July and August were never horrendously cool by day and were in fact very mild by night due to the cloud.

So I think mean temperature definitely doesn't represent the main issue with this summer which was more the lack of useable, dry days. 43 out of 62 days in July & August recorded rainfall while a big fat 0 recorded over ten hours of sunshine. Even worse, only 12 days out of 62 managed above 5 hours of sunshine which I think says it all. Never known such a dull holiday period!

[MP-R]

Because most of the anomalous warmth and sun came in June, and the anomalous cloud and rain came in July. August wasn’t too bad tbf, but felt and reads more like a decent September.

[Summer18]

July was one of the worst in living memory. For me July should be the absolute peak of summer and to have every weekend cool, wet and windy was a massive let down. 

[WYorksWeather]

Some interesting comments above - I definitely agree that temperature doesn't tell the whole story, and of course my method doesn't really work if you highly value a great July. 

In terms of things I can do fairly quickly, and rapid-firing some analyses for the last 10 years (all again based on mean CET except where noted):

July: 2023 ranks 8th with 16.2C (range: 15.8 to 18.3)

July and August: 2023 ranks 8th with 16.3C (range: 16.0 to 18.4)

All summer weekends: 2023 ranks 2nd with 17.1C (range: 15.5 to 17.3)

July and August weekends: 2023 ranks joint 6th with 16.6C (range: 16.2 to 18.4)

All July weekends:  2023 ranks 5th with 17.1C (range: 15.7 to 19.3)

All July weekends by MAX CET: 2023 ranks 8th with 20.6C (range: 19.5 to 25.5)

Let me know if there's anything else I can usefully do with the temperature dataset. If there is sufficient interest I'd consider using a sunshine or rainfall dataset to see what other stories can be told, but it won't be today!

 

 

[MattStoke]

Hottest and sunniest weather occurred prior to (and after) school holidays.

A lot of the most unsettled conditions coincided with weekends.

Very anomalously warm June outweighed slightly colder than average June and July. 

[richie3846]

Wind was a big factor in the 'feel' of the main July and August summer period. It was unusually blowy, depressing the 'feels like' temperature. Sunshine was also quite poor, and people do tend to notice sunshine levels more during the summer.

It was practically impossible to have a BBQ during July.

Some of August was actually quite decent, but the lack of a defined settled hot spell meant that people didn't have anything to remember the second half of the summer by. Again, it was a rather cloudy affair, which does reflect many Augusts of recent times. I suspect that because we've had so many iffy Augusts in the last 20 years or so, people are a little more sensitive about the school holiday weather, and when it's not amazing, but ok, people then tend to notice the bad bits, and didn't really notice that most of August was actually usable, especially for kids who don't generally like it hot anyway. 

If I remember correctly, many of the weekends were trashed with low pressure, with most of fine weather in the week. 

Edited September 29, 2023 by richie3846

[cheese]

Mid July-mid August is peak summer.  That period also had the worst weather of the summer. Almost everyone I’ve spoken to in real life has commented on how bad this summer was - the hot June was pretty quickly forgotten. 

Edited September 29, 2023 by cheese

[danm]

...because "peak Summer", as i've said a few times, was bloody awful - cool, wet and dull, from the dying days of June right up until the first/second week of August. 

June itself was excellent, and the second half of August was perfectly fine, so overall the Summer comes out as OK from a stats perspective, but stats don't always tell the whole story. 

 

Edited September 29, 2023 by danm

[legion_quest]

The sun wasnt out. 

So even though the temps were around average due to the Southerly nature of the wind drawing up humid air, that air was accompanied by cloud and rain. 

People mentally associate warmth with the sun, if you can't see the sun because of cloud and rain, it doesnt matter what the temps are, you'll not feel it mentally. 

Equally, you're less likely to spend time outside and feel the temps, so all you have to go on is the 'look' of the day.

Summer isn't just about what the stats say, but the experiences that come with it, and this summer, people were by and large unable to do many of the things people associate with a 'good' summer. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

12 hours ago, Sun Chaser said:

It's definitely not the temperature that was the main issue. It was more about cloud and rainfall - July 2023 was widely both wetter and duller than the infamous July 2012, with August not turning out all that much better with it being especially dull in the west.

It's an odd summer as June was a classic, by temperature and sunshine (though in certain areas it came out average rainfall wise due to occasional downpours). July and August were never horrendously cool by day and were in fact very mild by night due to the cloud.

So I think mean temperature definitely doesn't represent the main issue with this summer which was more the lack of useable, dry days. 43 out of 62 days in July & August recorded rainfall while a big fat 0 recorded over ten hours of sunshine. Even worse, only 12 days out of 62 managed above 5 hours of sunshine which I think says it all. Never known such a dull holiday period!

Yea I'm with this. The temp was above average in our warming world but it was the amount of cloud and drabness!

3 hours ago, cheese said:

Mid July-mid August is peak summer.  That period also had the worst weather of the summer. Almost everyone I’ve spoken to in real life has commented on how bad this summer was - the hot June was pretty quickly forgotten. 

Correct

[*Stormforce~beka*]

2 hours ago, legion_quest said:

The sun wasnt out. 

So even though the temps were around average due to the Southerly nature of the wind drawing up humid air, that air was accompanied by cloud and rain. 

People mentally associate warmth with the sun, if you can't see the sun because of cloud and rain, it doesnt matter what the temps are, you'll not feel it mentally. 

Equally, you're less likely to spend time outside and feel the temps, so all you have to go on is the 'look' of the day.

Summer isn't just about what the stats say, but the experiences that come with it, and this summer, people were by and large unable to do many of the things people associate with a 'good' summer. 

SUNBATH!!!!

[alexisj9]

7 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

SUNBATH!!!!

I don't bother with that lol, get my sun while shopping and gardening. Or getting to and from other appointments. Normally enough for a tan and was this year in June and August, July was disappointing though.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I don't bother with that lol, get my sun while shopping and gardening. Or getting to and from other appointments. Normally enough for a tan and was this year in June and August, July was disappointing though.

It's not the tan I want. It's sitting and relaxing with a book/magazine in the sun on the sunbed without cloud or a cold wind! THAT has been my complaint all summer ...

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

It's not the tan I want. It's sitting and relaxing with a book/magazine in the sun on the sunbed without cloud or a cold wind! THAT has been my complaint all summer ...

I agree it wasn't good for that at any point really June still had an easterly breeze, August probably allowed for some of that though, at times.

[Metwatch]

Sunshine amounts, rainfall, (concentrated during weekends with either t-storms or more general rainfall) the amazing June, the warmer nights, and the worst of the summer weather during the 'high season' summer holidays are all to blame as others have mentioned.

Also I think mentioned this earlier this month, but for summer and to an extent spring, rainfall and sunshine can arguably be more important factors than temperature in deciding how good it really was.

Edited September 29, 2023 by Metwatch

[Addicks Fan 1981]

3 hours ago, danm said:

...because "peak Summer", as i've said a few times, was bloody awful - cool, wet and dull, from the dying days of June right up until the first/second week of August. 

June itself was excellent, and the second half of August was perfectly fine, so overall the Summer comes out as OK from a stats perspective, but stats don't always tell the whole story. 

 

Think September has made up for it though and October could still deliver the goods from the gods sort of thing.   

[laddie]

For me early june was blighted here by a virtually daily cold breeze followed by the peak summer month July being a total write-off for doing summery stuff, a pretty average aug and warm September doesn't make up for peak summer activities being adversely affected 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

I agree it wasn't good for that at any point really June still had an easterly breeze, August probably allowed for some of that though, at times.

We've been under a niño influence and a warm Atlantic, those two phenomenons have clashed with each other this summer and we have had whatever we have had.    

[damianslaw]

From my perception, for a number of reasons-

 

Came on the back of summer 2022 and exceptional heat. Lack of anything notably hot.

Core summer period coincided with a dismal very wet spell mid July to mid August, peak holiday season and a shocker has to be said. We had I think just a couple of days in July and August that nudged 25 degree mark..

Lack of sunshine, far too much cloud with exception first 2 weeks June.

Overall a poor season despite what the mean temps say. It was very wet here, sunshine average, skewed by June and temps mediocre again exclude early to mid June. 10 excellent days in June does not make a summer!

Edited September 29, 2023 by damianslaw

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Just now, damianslaw said:

From my perception, for a number of reasons-

 

Came on the back of summer 2022 and exceptional heat. Lack of anything notably hot.

Core summer period coincided with a dismal very wet spell mid July to mid August, peak holiday season and a shocker has to be said. We had I think just a couple of days in July and August that nudged 25 degree mark..

Lack of sunshine, far too much cloud with exception first 2 weeks June.

Overall a poor season despite what the mean temps say. It was very wet here, sunshine average, skewed by June and temps mediocre again exclude early to mid June 

Think the niño phenomenon made the azores high weak and sent the jet stream right ️ over us along with atmosphere disconnects.   

Fortunately we've had a better September and I think it's made up for it to be honest.   

The best part over this summer was the lush green lawn and the reservoirs picking up much needed rain it didn't have last year.  

A fun fact over this decade is the summers have averaged at 16.6 which is better than what we have at the same point last decade between 2010 to 2013.    

Think Facebook influence negativity here to tell you the truth, people read Facebook comments and are influenced by how they behave so they think its good to follow them no matter what.    

[Froze were the Days]

22 minutes ago, laddie said:

For me early june was blighted here by a virtually daily cold breeze followed by the peak summer month July being a total write-off for doing summery stuff, a pretty average aug and warm September doesn't make up for peak summer activities being adversely affected 

'Warm September' - I think that's an under statement it's been like a 4th summer month, okay July was poor but temperatures again weren't on the cold side...overall though going by my back yard experience it was a pretty average one, August not remarkable but okay (other than the opening days) and June surprisingly the warmest on record which it didn't feel here due no over excessive heat by day.

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Think the niño phenomenon made the azores high weak and sent the jet stream right ️ over us along with atmosphere disconnects.   

Fortunately we've had a better September and I think it's made up for it to be honest.   

The best part over this summer was the lush green lawn and the reservoirs picking up much needed rain it didn't have last year.  

A fun fact over this decade is the summers have averaged at 16.6 which is better than what we have at the same point last decade between 2010 to 2013.    

Think Facebook influence negativity here to tell you the truth, people read Facebook comments and are influenced by how they behave so they think its good to follow them no matter what.    

That why I don't really read general posts on there. I'm part of some wildlife groups, weather groups, and Facebook adds post to my front screen with these interests in mind, and I miss all the nonsense.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

That why I don't really read general posts on there. I'm part of some wildlife groups, weather groups, and Facebook adds post to my front screen with these interests in mind, and I miss all the nonsense.

Facebook people have strong opinions and unfortunately they are not balanced, it's childish behaviour just to get likes.   Then again they don't like to be told what to do.