November 2023 C.E.T. and EWP contests -- final month of the 2022-23 competitions

[J10]

Monthly
As per above, 4 players got it spot on.

Wold Topper, Earthshine, WYorksWeather and Mark Bayley.

Seasonal

The same 1-2-3 as last month but in a differeent order.

Roger J Smith 1st (from 2nd)
Kentish Man 2nd (from 3rd)
sunny_vale 3rd (from 1st)

Overall figures will be published tomorrow.

[Summer8906]

Interesting that we seem to be getting into quite a pattern now of cold ends to November in otherwise mild/wet autumns. Last time this didn't occur was, IIRC, 2018.

[summer blizzard]

Despite the CET, this Autumn has actually not been one that should be remembered for unrelenting warmth.

September and October basically saw warm opening thirds (at near record pace) followed by fair average two thirds. November actually kept the warmth for longest.

[J10]

Overall

November CET Excel Nov 2023 CET.xlsx
Nov 23 Summary PDF Nov 2023 Summary.pdf
Nov 23 Summary Overall PDF Nov 2023 Summary Overall.pdf

The top 8 remain the same but in a largely different order.

Well done to DR(S)NO winning this year.

DR(S)NO finished 1st (from 2nd)
Dancerwithwings 2nd (from 7th)
Leo97t 3rd (from 5th)
The PIT 4th (from 1st)

Here are the monthly scores for the Top 8 this month.

[Roger J Smith]

 

Combined ranks for CET, EWP (contest year)

CET-only forecasters are inserted into table at position of their CET rank.

First column in table is rank of the average rank for the two contests. Average errors are shown with their ranks also.

For CET entrants with 3 or more  missed forecasts, no official rank, but I calculated one based on points total, and the decimal shows exactly where that point total fits into ranks of qualifying forecasters. CET error rank for them is based on a similar comparison except that some will be tied with ranked forecasters. Summer8906 (8 of 12) and Thundery Wintry Showers had better average errors than any ranked CET forecasters and are shown at ranks 0.5 and 0.4 for CET average error. EWP average errors are from one list down to 5/12 entries. They are adjusted with insertions of (consensus + 5) errors for months missed.

CET average errors for 2-3 forecasts not ranked. Only NOV entrants are included in table for fewer than 3 forecasts. CET ranks for points totals lower than 51st qualifying forecasters are shown as t52 whatever they ranked below 51st, and points totals for 2-3 entries not ranked (shown as t52) as average error inflated point totals, this was probably the case for several with 4-9 entries as well but I thought they had participated enough to establish form. CET average errors not ranked for 2-3 entries.

... EWP ranks and errors subject to small adjustments on 5 Dec. ...

 

<<< RANKS >>> ____ ___ ___ ____________________ ______ ____ CET (deg) _____ EWP (mm) 

comb _ CET_EWP __ avg __ FORECASTER ______entries __ avg errors (ranks)  CET/EWP

 

_01 ___ 03 __ 05 ____ 4.0 __ Leo97t _______________12 ______ 0.68 (t3) _____ 29.03 (7)

_ --- ___ 05 __ --- ___ (5 CET)_ Summer Sun _______ 12 ______ 0.69 (5) ______ ---

_02 ___ 01 __ 11 ____ 6.0 __ DR(S)NO _____________ 12 ______ 0.62 (1) _____ 31.74 (15)

_03 ___ 07 __ 06 ____ 6.5 __ Reef _________________ 12 ______ 0.70 (t6) _____ 29.08 (8.)

_04 ___ 12 __ 04 ____ 8.0 __ February1978 ________12 ______ 0.76 (10) ____ 28.98 (6)

_05 ___ 20 __ 01 ___ 10.5 __ snowray _____________ 12 ______ 0.83 (t15) ___ 28.61 (5)

_06 ___ 17 __ 03 ___ 10.0 __ Weather Observer ___12 ______ 0.92 (24) ____ 29.12 (9) 

_--- ___ 10 __ --- __ (10 CET) _Mark  Bayley ________ 12 ______ 0.71 (8 ) _____ ---

_--- ____11 __ --- __ (11 CET) _damianslaw ________ 12 ______ 0.77 (12) ____ ---

_07 ___ 02 __ 22 ___ 12.0 __ dancerwithwings ____ 12 ______ 0.68 (t3) _____ 36.80 (33) 

_08 ___15 __ 14 ___ 14.5 ___prolongedSnowLover_12 ______0.80 (14) ____ 29.75 (12)

_09 ___18 __ 12 ___ 15.0 __ Midlands Ice Age _____ 12 ______ 0.84 (17) ____ 33.49 (20) 

_t10___ 09 __ 24 ___ 16.5 __ Feb1991Blizzard _____ 12 ______ 0.79 (t11) ___ 36.01 (29)

_t10___ 04 __ 29 ___ 16.5 __ The PIT _______________12 ______ 0.75 (9) ______39.78 (42)

_t12 ___13 __ 25 ___ 19.0 __ Mr Maunder _________ 12 ______ 0.83 (t15) ____36.65 (31)

_t12 ___t22 __08 __ 15.0 __ Summer Shower______ 11 _____  0.90 (23) _____ 26.83 ( 1 )

_ 14 ___14 __ 23 ___ 18.5 __ Wold Topper _________12 ______ 0.79 (t11)  ____ 36.64 (30)

_ 15 ___28 __ 10 ___ 19.0 __  J 10 __________________ 12 ______ 0.97 (t27) ____ 29.35 (11) 

_16 ___ 07 __ 33 ___ 20.0 __ Don __________________ 12 ______ 0.70 (t6) _____ 40.10 (t43) 

_17 ___ 25 __ 16 ___ 20.5 __ seaside60 ____________ 12 ______ 0.91 (24) _____ 34.92 (25)

_18 __ 12.2 _ 31 ___ 21.6 __ summer8906 __________8 _______0.48 ( 0.5 ) ___ 27.26 ( 2 ) 

_19 ___ 32 __ 02 ___ 22.0 __ bobd29 _______________12 ______ 1.06 (32) _____ 27.79 ( 3 )

_20 ___t36 __ 09 ___ 22.5 __ virtualsphere _________12 ______ 1.18 (38) _____ 28.42 ( 4 )

_t21___ 06 __ 40 ___ 23.0 __ Metwatch _____________11 ______ 0.63 (2) ______ 42.53 (47) 

_t21___ 21 __ 27 ___ 24.0 __ rwtwm _______________ 12 ______ 0.87 (t20)_____ 34.57 (23) 

_t21___ 35 __ 13 ___ 24.0 __ jonboy ________________12 ______ 1.23 (t39) ____ 33.00 (17) 

_24 ___ 29 __ 21 ___ 25.0 __ Roger J Smith _________12 ______ 0.97 (t27) ____ 29.82 (13)

_t25___ 19 __ 32 ___ 25.5 __ davehsug _____________12 ______ 0.83 (t15) ____ 38.48 (38) 

_t25___ 33 __ 18 ___ 25.5___ Mulzy ________________ 11 ______ 1.09 (33) _____ 34.48 (t21) 

_ --- ___ 27 __ --- ___(27 CET)_Typhoon John _______ 12 ______ 0.97 (t27) ____ -- -- 

_ 27 ___ 45 __ 07 ___ 26.0 __ Jeff C _________________12 ______ 1.28 (42) _____ 29.27 (10) 

_28 ___ 40 __ 15 ___ 27.5 __ Emmett Garland _____ 12 _______1.24 (41) _____ 31.77 (16) 

_--- ___ 27.7 __--- ___(CET) _ Man with Beard _______ 5 _______ 0.70 (6.0) _____ ---

_29 ___ 39 __ 19 ___ 29.0 __ summer18 ___________ 12 _______1.18 (37) _____ 31.57 (14)

_t30___t22 __ 37 ___ 29.5 __ Methuselah __________12 _______ 0.93 (t25) ____ 40.73 (45) 

_t30___ 24 __ 35 ___ 29.5 __ noname_weather_____11 _______ 0.87 (t20) ____ 35.90 (28)

_32 ___ 41 __ 20 ___ 30.5 __ Stationary Front ______12 _______ 1.30 (43) _____ 33.05 (18)

_33 ___ 34 __ 30 ___ 32.0 __ I Remember Atl252 ___11 _______ 1.11 (34) _____ 39.27 (41) 

_34 ___ 26 __ 41 ___ 33.5 __ SteveB ________________12 _______ 0.93 (t25) ____ 43.08 (48) 

_35 ___30 __ 38 ___ 34.0 __ Frigid _________________ 12 ________1.00 (31) _____ 44.25 (50) 

_t34___ 51 __ 17 ___ 34.0 __ Polar Gael ____________ 12 _______2.09 (51) _____ 34.48 (t21)

_37 ___13.8__ 55 ___ 34.4 __ sunny_vale ____________9 _______ 0.66 (2.6) _____ 46.69 (53) 

_ 38 __ 16 __ 53 ___ 34.5 __ Earthshine ____________10 _______ 0.86 (19) _____ 49.03 (54) 

_ 39___t36 __34 ___ 35.0 ___ Weather26 ___________11 _______ 1.14 (36) _____ 37.07 (34) 

_t40___ 44 __ 28 ___ 36.0 __ daniel* _______________ 12 _______ 1.39 (45) _____ 42.03 (46) 

_t40___t36 __ 36 ___ 36.0 __ summer blizzard _____ 12 _______ 1.12 (34) _____ 39.45 (40) 

_42 ___23.3 __49 __ 36.2 ___ catbrainz ______________8 ________ 0.69 (5.0) ____ 40.10 (t43)

_43 ___ 32 __ 43 ___ 37.5 __ Moorlander ___________12 _______ 0.99 (30) _____ 43.77 (49) 

_44 ___ 50 __ 26 ___ 38.0 __ Godber 1 _____________ 12 _______ 1.48 (47) _____ 36.70 (32) 

_45 ___34.0 _ 44 ___ 39.0 __ Mapantz ______________ 8 ________ 0.91 (24.0) ___ 35.21 (26) 

_46 ___40.7__39 ___ 39.9 __ stewfox ________________8 _______ 1.20 (38.4) ___ 35.33 (27)

_47 ___30.8 __50 __ 40.4 __ Norrance ______________ 8 _______ 0.84 (17.0) ____ 37.36 (35)

_ --- ___40.6 __ --- _(CET) __ Quicksilver1989 ________ 6 _______ 0.98 (28.5) ____ ---

_48 ___21.8__61 ___ 41.4 _Thundery Wintry Showers_ 4 _____0.38 (0.4) _____ 32.58 (---)

_--- ___ 42 __ --- ___(42 CET)_ Walsall Wood Snow _ 12 _______ 1.23 (t39) ____ ---

_--- ___ 43 __ --- ___(43 CET)_ Kentish Man _________12 _______ 1.37 (44) ____ ---

_49 ___ 35.8__51 __ 43.4 ___ freeze _________________ 5 _______ 0.86 (19.0) ___ 33.39 (19)

_50 ___ 39.5__48 __ 43.8 ___ DiagonalRedLine ______6 _______ 0.97 (t27) ____ 34.64 (24) 

_51 ___ 47 __ 42 ___ 44.5 __ shillitocettwo _________ 12 _______ 1.68 (50) ____ 49.13 (55) 

_52 ___ 46 __ 46 ___ 46.0 __ syed2878 _____________ 12 _______ 1.53 (t48) ____ 44.97 (51) 

_53 ___ 48 __ 45 ___ 46.5 __ Neil N _________________11 _______ 1.43 (46) _____ 45.05 (52) 

_54 ___ 49 __ 47 ___ 48.0 __ chilly milly ____________ 12 ________1.53 (t48) ____ 51.76 (56) 

_55 __ 47.3__ 52 ___ 49.7 __ B87 _____________________7 _______ 1.21 (38.6) ___ 39.36 (39) 

_56 __ 48.9__ 54 ___ 51.5 __ SLEETY _________________ 7 _______ 1.43 (46.0) ___ 37.95 (37) 

_t57__ 50.7__ 56 ___ 53.4 __ Cymro __________________4 ________1.63 (49.5) ___ 36.88 (---)

_t57__ 46.7__ 60 ___ 53.4 __ Somerset Girl ___________4 _______ 1.15 (36.3) ___ 49.03 (---)

_59 __ t52 __ 57 ___ 54.5 __ Kirkcaldy Weather ______ 5 _______ 2.43 (t52) ____ 37.85 (36)

_60 __ t52 __ 59 ___ 55.5 __ Blast From the Past _____4 _______ 1.85 (50.5) ___ 44.13 (---)

_61 __ t52 __ 62 ___ 57.0 __ Alexis J 9 ________________ 2 _______ 0.45 (---) ______ 8.65 (---)

_62 __ t52 __ 63 ___ 57.5 __ mazelike ________________ 3 _______ 0.83 (---) _____ 33.70 (---)

_63 __ t52 __ 62 ___ 57.0 __ Weather Enthusiast91 __ 2 _______0.38 (---) _____ 21.25 ( ---) 

_64 __ t52 __ 63 ___ 57.5 __ Addicks Fan 1981 _______ 3 _______1.33 (---) _____ 57.77 (---)

_65 __ t52 __ 64 ___ 58.0 __ Let It Snow! _____________ 3 _______ 1.10 (---) _____ 51.47 (---)

_66 __ t52 __ 67 ___ 59.5 __ john88b _________________3 _______ 0.73 (---) _____ 31.40 ( --- ) 

_67 __ t52 __ 74 ___ 63.0 __ WYorksWeather _________2 _______ 0.60 (---) _____ 63.65 (---)

 

Edited December 7, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Dancerwithwings]

Wow  2nd I wasn’t expecting that

I’m sure I say this for all, with thanks to J10 & Roger….

for one’s endeavour’s to keep this competition going

You both deserve medals

[Roger J Smith]

NOV final EWP reported as 127.8 mm, final EWP scoring ...

 

 

Final EWP contest scores and Nov forecasts (scores now adjusted)

 

Rank (prev) _ FORECASTER ________ n __ TOTAL PTS ___ AVG ERROR (rank)__ Nov forecast, score (rank)

_01 __ 01 ___ snowray ____________ 12 ___ 84.20 ________ 28.61 ( 5 ) _ ( 6 ) ____157.0 ___ 4.78 (30)

_02 __ 03 ___ bobd29 ______________12 ___ 79.29 ________ 27.79 ( 3 ) _ (t4) ____ 103.6 ___ 5.30 (27)

_03 __ 07 ___ Weather Observer ___12 ___ 78.72 ________ 29.12 ( 9 ) _ (12) ___ 121.0 ___ 8.74 ( 8. )

_04 __ 08 ___ February1978 ________12 ___ 78.70 ________ 28.98 ( 6 ) _ (13) ___ 132.0 ___ 9.10 ( 5 ) _6 lev

_05 __ 06 ___ Leo97t _______________12 ___ 78.65 ________ 29.03 ( 7 ) _ (11) ____120.0 ___ 7.92 (13) _ (2nd ent)

_06 __ 02 ___ Reef _________________ 12 ___ 78.47 ________ 29.08 ( 8 ) _ ( 3 ) ____172.0 ___ 2.46 (43)

_07 __ 05 ___ Jeff C _________________12 ___ 77.43 ________ 29.27 (10) _ (10) ____145.0 ___ 6.30 (22) (2nd ent)

_08 __ 09 ___ Summer Shower_____ 11 ___ 75.93 ________ 26.83* ( 1 )__( 1 ) ___ 94.0 ____3.54 (36)

_09 __ 08 ___ virtualsphere ________ 12 ___ 75.29 ________ 28.42 ( 4 )_ ( 7 ) ____149.0 ___ 5.68 (25) 

_10 __ 14 ___ J 10 ___________________12 ___ 74.36 ________ 29.35 (11) _ (14)____130.0 ___ 9.82 ( 2 )

_11 __ 13 ___ DR(S)NO _____________ 12 ___ 71.81 ________ 31.74 (15) _ (18) ___ 117.1 ___ 7.12 (17)

_12 __ 19 ___ Midlands Ice Age ____ 12 ___ 70.04 ________ 33.49 (20) _ (22) ____134.9 ___ 8.38 (10 )

_13 __ 11 ___ jonboy _______________12 ___ 69.35 ________ 33.00 (17) _ (17) ____162.0 ___ 3.42 (37)

_14 __ 16 ___prolongedSnowLover _12 ___ 69.26 ________ 29.75 (12) _ ( 9 ) ____103.0 ___ 5.10 (28)

_15 __ 10 ___ Emmett Garland _____12 ___ 68.99 ________ 31.77 (16) _ ( 8 ) ____186.0 ___ 1.06 (50) 

_16 __ 20 ___ seaside60 ____________12 ___ 68.68 ________ 34.92 (25) _ (30) ____ 120.0 ___ 7.42 (15) _(4th ent, 1d late)

_17 __ 12 ___ Polar Gael ____________12 ___ 66.88 ________ 34.48 (t21)_ (16) ____ 75.2 ___ 1.80 (46)

_18 __ 17 ___ Mulzy ________________ 12 ___ 66.79 ________ 34.48 (t21)_ (20) ____ 97.0 ____ 4.08 (34) _(2nd ent)

_19 __ 18 ___ summer18 ___________ 12 ___ 66.72 ________ 31.57 (14) _ (15) ___ 101.0 ___ 4.92 (29)

_20 __ 21 ___ Stationary Front ______12 ___ 66.45 ________ 33.05 (18) _ (19) ____112.0 ___ 6.94 (18)

_21 __ 15 ___ Roger J Smith ________ 12 ___ 66.05 ________ 29.82 (13) _ ( 2 ) ____182.5 ___ 1.66 (47)

_22 __ 22 ___ dancerwithwings _____12 ___ 63.30 ________ 36.80 (33) _ (28) ____ 97.0 ___ 4.18 (33)

_23 __ 24 ___ Wold Topper _________12 ___ 60.87 ________ 36.64 (30) _ (31) ____103.7 ___ 5.49 (26)

_24 __ 23 ___ Feb1991Blizzard _____ 12 ___ 60.42 ________ 36.01 (29) _ (t23) ___ 159.0 ___ 3.78 (35)

_25 __ 27 ___ Mr Maunder __________12 ___ 59.96 ________ 36.65 (31) _ (32) ____111.0 ___ 6.58 (20)

_26 __ 30 ___ Godber 1 _____________12 ___ 58.74 ________ 36.70 (32) _ (38) ____126.0 ___ 10.00 (1)

_27 __ 32 ___ rwtwm _______________ 12 ___ 58.11 ________ 34.57 (23) _ (35) ____124.0 ___ 9.46 ( 4 )

_28 __ 26 ___ daniel* _______________ 12 ___ 56.24 ________ 42.03 (46) _ (42) ____ 80.0 ___ 2.20 (44)

_29 __ 33 ___ The PIT _______________12 ___ 56.04 ________ 39.78 (42) _ (46) ____120.0 ___ 7.82 (14) _(3rd ent)

_30 __ 25 ___ I Remember Atl252 ___11 ___ 55.35 ________ 39.27*(41) _ (29) ___188.0 ___ 0.80 (51)

_31 __ 31 ___ summer8906 __________8 ___ 54.76 ________ 27.26*( 2 ) _  (t4) ___110.0 ___ 6.04 (23)

_32 __ 36 ___ davehsug _____________12 ___ 53.35 ________ 38.48 (38) _ (43) ____124.0 ___ 9.06 (6)  (2nd ent, 1d late)

_33 __ 28 ___ Don __________________ 12 ___ 52.71 ________ 40.10 (t43)_ (t33) ____185.0 ___ 1.46 (48)

_34 __ 29 ___ Weather26 ___________ 11 ___ 52.61 ________ 37.07*(34) _ (t23) ___ 84.0 ____ 2.60 (42)

_35 __ 38 ___ noname_weather_____11 ___ 50.91 ________ 35.90*(28) _(t33) ____121.0 ___ 8.64 (9) _ (2nd ent) 

_36 __ 34 ___ summer blizzard _____ 12 ___ 49.81 ________ 39.45 (40) _ (41) ____ 98.0 ___ 4.44 (32) (2nd ent)

_37 __ 37 ___ Methuselah ___________12 ___ 48.23 ________ 40.73 (45) _ (45) ___ 107.0 ___ 5.86 (24)

_38 __ 42 ___ Frigid _________________ 12 ___ 46.28 ________ 44.25 (50) _ (54) ____120.0 ___ 8.02 (12)

_39 __ 43 ___ stewfox ________________ 8 ___ 45.69 ________ 35.33*(27) _ (32) ___ 135.0 ___ 8.20 (11)

_40 __ 45 ___ Metwatch _____________ 11 ___ 45.39 ________ 42.53*(47) _(50) ____123.0 ___ 8.92 (7) 

_41 __ 40 ___ SteveB ________________ 12 ___ 45.76 ________ 43.08 (48) _ (47) ____ 98.0 ___ 4.54 (31)

_42 __ 35 ___ shillitocettwo _________ 12 ___ 45.10 ________ 49.13 (55) _ (51) ____ 44.0 ___ 0.00 (55)

_43 __ 46 ___ Moorlander ___________ 12 ___ 44.00 ________ 43.77 (49) _ (53) ____ 130.0 ___ 9.72 (3) _ (2nd ent)

_44 __ 39 ___ Mapantz _______________ 8 ___ 42.18 ________ 35.21*(26) _ (26) ____ no fcst

_45 __ 41 ___ Neil N _________________ 11 ___ 41.89 ________ 45.05*(52) _ (49) ____ 90.0 ___ 3.24 (38)

_46 __ 44 ___ syed2878 ______________ 12 ___ 40.26 ________ 44.97 (51) _ (48) ____ 90.0 ___ 3.04 (40) (3rd ent)

_47 __ 49 ___ chilly milly _____________12 ___ 34.34 ________ 51.76 (56) _ (56) _____ 79.0 ___ 2.00 (45)

_48 __ 47 ___ DiagonalRedLine _______ 6 ___ 33.52 ________ 34.64*(24) _ (25) ____ no fcst

_49 __ 53 ___ catbrainz _______________ 8 ___ 33.08 ________ 40.10*(t43)_ (44) ____144.0 ___ 6.76 (19) 

_50 __ 48 ___ Norrance _______________ 8 ___ 32.65 ________ 37.36*(35) _ (37) ____ no fcst

_51 __ 50 ___ freeze __________________ 5 ___ 31.95 ________ 33.39*(19) _ (21) ____ no fcst 

_52 __ 51 ___ B87 _____________________7 ___ 30.35 ________ 39.36*(39) _ (36) ____ 90.0 ___ 3.14 (39) _(2nd ent) 

_53 __ 54 ___ Earthshine _____________10 ___ 27.29 ________ 49.03*(54) _ (55) ____ 70.0 ___ 1.20 (49)

_54 __ 52 ___ SLEETY _________________ 7 ___ 27.10 ________ 37.95*(37) _ (40) ____ no fcst 

_55 __ 56 ___ sunny_vale _____________ 9 ___ 26.21 ________ 46.69*(53) _ (52) ____ 87.0 ___ 2.80 (41)

_56 __ 55 ___ Cymro __________________ 4 ___ 26.11 ________ 36.88 (---) _  (---) ____ no fcst

_57 __ 57 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather ______ 5 ___ 19.01 ________ 37.85*(36) _ (39) ___ no fcst

_58 __ 58 ___ Coventry Weather ______ 2 ____19.00 _________ 8.25 (---) _ (---) ____ no fcst 

_59 __ 59 ___ Blast From the Past _____4 ___ 18.63 _________44.13 (---) _ (---) ____ no fcst

_60 __ 60 ___ Somerset Girl ___________4 ___ 17.95 _________48.53 (---) _ (---) ____ 60.0 ___ 0.20 (54)

_61 __ 61 __ Thundery Wintry Showers_ 4 ___17.04 _______ 32.58 (---) _ (---) ____ no fcst

_62 __t66 ___ Alexis J 9 ________________ 2 ____16.40 _________ 9.75 (---) _ (---) _____145.0 ___ 6.40 (21) 

_63 __ 62 ___ Weather Enthusiast91 __ 2 ___ 15.86 ________ 21.25 ( ---) _ (---) ____ no fcst

_64 __ 72 ___ mazelike ________________ 3 ____15.45 ________ 43.17 (---) _ (---) ____137.0 ___ 7.30 (16)

_65 __ 64 ___ Let It Snow! _____________ 3 ___ 14.06 _________ 51.47 (---) _ (---) ____ no fcst

_67 __ 65 ___ john88b _________________ 3 ___ 12.12 ________ 38.33 ( --- ) _ (---) ___ 67.0 ___ 0.60 (52)

_76 __ 77 ___ WYorksWeather _________ 2 ____ 7.28 ________ 64.75 (---) _ (---) ____190.0 ___ 0.40 (53)

 

(only Nov entrants are shown after 66th place in annual contest) 

(only entrants with 5-9 entries have a ranked adjusted average error)

=========================

 (7.6) _(9.7) __ Consensus _____________ 12 ___ 76.58 _______ 31.40 (14.0) (17.9) __120.0 ___ 8.02 (12)

 (8.2) _(5.4) __ 1981-2010 average _____12 ___ 75.83 _______ 28.88 ( 7.1) _( 6.9) __100.4 ___ 4.85 (29.3)

 (10.7) (10.6) __1991-2020 average ____12 ___ 72.40 _______ 29.60 (12.7) _( 9.7) __106.1 ___ 5.62 (25.3)

(12.1)(11.7) _ 1993-2022 average _____ 12 ___ 70.92 _______ 30.32 (13.3) _(11.1) __104.7 ___ 5.55 (25.7)

========================

will give a top ten autumn EWP next. 

Edited December 6, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

 

Autumn 2023 EWP _ Scoring for all entrants (2/3 or 3/3 contests)

 

_01 ___ J 10 ____________________ 25.45

_02 ___ Weather Observer _____24.24

_03 ___ February1978 __________23.70 

_04 ___ Jeff C ___________________23.27 

_05 ___ summer blizzard ______ 22.64 

_06 ___ virtualsphere __________ 22.61

_07 ___ Summer Shower_______ 22.20

_08 ___ rwtwm _________________ 22.01

_09 ___ bobd29 _________________21.74

_10 ___ Godber 1 ______________ 21.14

_11 ___ summer18 _____________ 19.90

_(12) __ average 1991-2020 ___ 19.84

_12 ___ Emmett Garland _______ 19.82

_13 ___ DR(S)NO _______________ 19.42

_14 ___ Moorlander ___________ 18.83

_15 ___ Mr Maunder ___________ 18.63 

_16___ Reef ____________________18.46

_(16) __ Consensus _____________18.44

_17 ___ Earthshine _____________17.68

_18 ___ Midlands Ice Age ______ 17.65

_19 ___ snowray _______________ 17.45

_20 ___ Roger J Smith __________17.11  

_21 ___ seaside60 ______________17.04 

_22 ___ davehsug ______________16.59

_23 ___ Leo97t _________________16.56

_24 ___ Alexis J 9 _______________16.40 (2/3)

_25 ___ stewfox ________________ 16.14 (2/3)

_26 ___ chilly milly ______________15.48

_27 ___ mazelike _______________ 15.45

_28 ___ Frigid ___________________15.03

_29 ___ Metwatch ______________ 14.86

_30 ___prolongedSnowLover __ 14.53 

_31 ___ summer8906 __________ 14.18

_32 ___ Stationary Front _______ 14.02

_33 ___ SteveB _________________ 13.02

_34 ___ I Remember Atl252 ____ 12.72

_35 ___ jonboy _________________ 12.69

_36 ___ The PIT _________________12.53

_37 ___ Methuselah ____________ 12.20

_38 ___ Polar Gael ______________12.16 

_39 ___ catbrainz ______________ 11.76

_40 ___ dancerwithwings ______ 11.19 

_41 ___ Wold Topper ___________11.18

_42 ___ Somerset girl __________ 10.99

_43 ___ B87 ____________________10.50

_44 ___ Weather26 _____________10.00 

_45 ___ Mulzy ___________________ 9.93 

_46 ___ Neil N __________________ 9.54

_47 ___ noname_weather_______ 9.48 (2/3) 

_48 ___ shillitocettwo ___________ 8.87

_49 ___ Feb1991Blizzard ________ 8.30

_50 ___ daniel* __________________7.98

_51 ___ WYorksWeather _________7.28 (2/3)

_52 ___ syed2878 _______________ 6.69

_53 ___ Don _____________________6.31

_54 ___ sunny_vale _____________ 4.54 (2/3)

_55 ___ AddicksFan1981 ________4.18 (2/3)

 

Edited December 6, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[snowray]

Makes a change to actually win something.

Thanks Roger for all your hard work running the competition.

 

[JeffC]

On 05/12/2023 at 22:44, Roger J Smith said:

 

Autumn 2023 EWP _ Scoring for all entrants (2/3 or 3/3 contests)

 

_01 ___ J 10 ____________________ 25.45

_02 ___ Weather Observer _____24.24

_03 ___ February1978 __________23.70 

_04 ___ Jeff C ___________________23.27 

_05 ___ summer blizzard ______ 22.64 

_06 ___ virtualsphere __________ 22.61

_07 ___ Summer Shower_______ 22.20

_08 ___ rwtwm _________________ 22.01

_09 ___ bobd29 _________________21.74

_10 ___ Godber 1 ______________ 21.14

_11 ___ summer18 _____________ 19.90

_(12) __ average 1991-2020 ___ 19.84

_12 ___ Emmett Garland _______ 19.82

_13 ___ DR(S)NO _______________ 19.42

_14 ___ Moorlander ___________ 18.83

_15 ___ Mr Maunder ___________ 18.63 

_16___ Reef ____________________18.46

_(16) __ Consensus _____________18.44

_17 ___ Earthshine _____________17.68

_18 ___ Midlands Ice Age ______ 17.65

_19 ___ snowray _______________ 17.45

_20 ___ Roger J Smith __________17.11  

_21 ___ seaside60 ______________17.04 

_22 ___ davehsug ______________16.59

_23 ___ Leo97t _________________16.56

_24 ___ Alexis J 9 _______________16.40 (2/3)

_25 ___ stewfox ________________ 16.14 (2/3)

_26 ___ chilly milly ______________15.48

_27 ___ mazelike _______________ 15.45

_28 ___ Frigid ___________________15.03

_29 ___ Metwatch ______________ 14.86

_30 ___prolongedSnowLover __ 14.53 

_31 ___ summer8906 __________ 14.18

_32 ___ Stationary Front _______ 14.02

_33 ___ SteveB _________________ 13.02

_34 ___ I Remember Atl252 ____ 12.72

_35 ___ jonboy _________________ 12.69

_36 ___ The PIT _________________12.53

_37 ___ Methuselah ____________ 12.20

_38 ___ Polar Gael ______________12.16 

_39 ___ catbrainz ______________ 11.76

_40 ___ dancerwithwings ______ 11.19 

_41 ___ Wold Topper ___________11.18

_42 ___ Somerset girl __________ 10.99

_43 ___ B87 ____________________10.50

_44 ___ Weather26 _____________10.00 

_45 ___ Mulzy ___________________ 9.93 

_46 ___ Neil N __________________ 9.54

_47 ___ noname_weather_______ 9.48 (2/3) 

_48 ___ shillitocettwo ___________ 8.87

_49 ___ Feb1991Blizzard ________ 8.30

_50 ___ daniel* __________________7.98

_51 ___ WYorksWeather _________7.28 (2/3)

_52 ___ syed2878 _______________ 6.69

_53 ___ Don _____________________6.31

_54 ___ sunny_vale _____________ 4.54 (2/3)

_55 ___ AddicksFan1981 ________4.18 (2/3)

 

Happy with 4th!!

[Roger J Smith]

At 396.4 mm it was the 12th wettest autumn since EWP records began in 1766 and the second wettest since 2000 (wettest of all years, 502.7) behind only 5th wettest 2019 (410.9). You have to go up the list to 27th wettest 2022 and 29th wettest 2002 to find the rest of the top five of 24 years so far in the 2000's. 2012 is in 31st place, but then it's a drop down to 74th to find seventh recent entry, 2009. 

As of today's EWP estimate of 45 mm (and quickly rising), the annual precip is around 1078 mm, already good for 29th wettest year, but the pace slows down after this weekend and GFS currently projects a value near 1120 mm by 23rd, good for 12th place overall. A top ten finish is possible but top five are beginning to look out of reach. There would need to be a further 93 mm in last week of Dec if estimates are close to being correct, to reach the value of fifth place 1852 (1213 mm) and 147 mm more to tie second place 1798 at 1247.3 mm. Then it would require 184 mm in the last week to tie 1872, wettest year (1284.9 mm). 

It was also the third warmest autumn at 12.2 behind only 1976 (12.6) and 2011 (12.4), and ahead of 2022 (12.1) and 2014 (12.0). In the top thirty-seven (where we found six wet autumns), we find a total of 15 out of 24 years since 2000 in the warmth category. There are four more by 77th, so 19/24 warm against just 7/24 wet.

2021 was 8th warmest and so the past three autumns ranked 3rd, 4th and 8th. It compares to only one other set, 1729 to 1731 which ranked t9, t6 and t6.