November 2023 C.E.T. and EWP contests -- final month of the 2022-23 competitions

[Summer Sun]

8.4c to the 25th

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average
1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

8.1c to the 26th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

EWP around 118-120 mm, the current weak outcome for the Wed-Thursday southern low implies only about five more mm to come; earlier runs were showing heavier precip and outcomes of 140-150 but now we're looking at closer to 123-125. Could change again, I suppose. 

CET has fallen sharply due to two days at 1.8, 1.9 means. Today appears closer to 4 C, Tuesday about same, Wed and Thurs back down to around 2 C? Those forecast values would give an outcome of 7.4 C. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 7.9C +0.4C above average. Rainfall 97mm 109.9% of the monthly average

[Summer Sun]

8.0c to the 27th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 7.7C +0.3C above average. Rainfall up to 108.8mm 123.2% of the monthly average.

The final figure coming in around 7.2C to 7.4C by the looks for it here.

Edited November 28, 2023 by The PIT

[Metwatch]

On 27/11/2023 at 18:17, Roger J Smith said:

EWP around 118-120 mm, the current weak outcome for the Wed-Thursday southern low implies only about five more mm to come; earlier runs were showing heavier precip and outcomes of 140-150 but now we're looking at closer to 123-125. Could change again, I suppose. 

CET has fallen sharply due to two days at 1.8, 1.9 means. Today appears closer to 4 C, Tuesday about same, Wed and Thurs back down to around 2 C? Those forecast values would give an outcome of 7.4 C. 

If it could stay around this now, should be bang on point with my 123mm entry!

Edited November 28, 2023 by Metwatch

[Roger J Smith]

Today's CET report of 8.0 appears to be 7.95 rounded up so it could take a large drop on today's expected 2-3 C, 7.7 is possible on next report, if not 7.8.  Best guess for result is 7.3 or 7.4. ... EWP added a few yesterday, not sure if all the reported values on 24h chart will apply, if so, about 4-5, but possibly a bit less if reporting periods don't overlap. Then not expected to add anything significant next 54h. 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

7.9c to the 28th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

7.3c might be a tad cold unless we get -1 on both days.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 7.6C +0.3C above average. Rainfall unchanged.

[Roger J Smith]

Yesterday's report was 4.4 C and I thought I had seen different values (one colder) for previous two days than I see there today, either I got them wrong or they have been adjusted. This is why we only dropped to 7.9 C. I would guess closer to 7.5 now for outcome. 

[Roger J Smith]

The twelve coldest CET daily minima ... all but four are daily records (27 Nov 1904, 17 Nov 1930, 25 Nov 1952 are all second coldest values for date and 27 Nov 1915 is third coldest) ... can we join this exclusive club tonight? 

 1. __ -7.8 __ 24 Nov 1904

 2. __ -7.0 __ 28 Nov 2010

 3. __ -6.8 __ 23 Nov 1983

t4. __ -6.3 __ 27 Nov 1923

t4. __ -6.3 __ 29 Nov 2010

t6. __ -6.1 __ 17 Nov 1901

t6. __ -6.1 __ 27 Nov 1904

 8. __ -5.9 __ 25 Nov 1923

t9. _ -5.8 ___ 16 Nov 1901

t9. _ -5.8 ___ 17 Nov 1930

t9. _ -5.8 ___ 27 Nov 1915 

(CET legacy _ -5.8 _ 30 Nov 1919 was revised to -5.5 in v2.0)

12. __-5.7 ___25 Nov 1952

(note 23 Nov 1858 before daily minima records begin was very likely in this range as daily mean was -3.9 C).

 

 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 7.6C +0.4C above average. Rainfall 108.6mm 123.7% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

7.6c to the 29th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

A marked drop in the final days. Probably finish on 7.4 degrees, another above average month but not notably so. 

[Roger J Smith]

The EWP tracker was 127.0 mm to 29 Nov and maps of 24h precip suggest 127.5 to 128 will be its final verdict. I will not change the existing scoring table for EWP back a few pages now, until 5 Dec, as the differential from 130 mm used is small, and could again adjust to a new value on 5 Dec when we get final table value. The following is preliminary, I fully expect CET to drop to either 7.3 or 7.4 with a very cold value likely for 30th, but please note, these CET ranks are preliminary and I will adjust the table later today if necessary. The EWP ranks are based on 127.8 mm, table value on 5 Dec,

(edit _ CET confirmed at 7.4 C ... 30 Nov was 0.3, min was -3.4 despite -6 Pershore both yesterday and today ... so it could have perhaps been 7.3 with a lower value for 30th ... all of the following subject to validation by J 10 in CET contest scoring ...)

(later edit _ EWP tracker final value 127.7 mm, table value 127.8)

 

Ranks of CET and EWP forecasts for Nov 2023

__ based on 7.4 C and 127.8 mm

 

Rank __ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (order of entry) __ EWP _ rank ___ best combined ranks

(01) ___ 7.4 _ 104.7 _ average 1993-2022 ________(25) ___ (26) ____(2nd best combined)

(01) ___ 7.4 _ 120.0 _ consensus ________________ (12) ___ (13) ____ our consensus was best combined

_01 ___ 7.4 _ 103.7 _ Wold Topper ( 17 ) _________ 26 ____ 27 ___ t2nd best combined

_02 ___ 7.4 __ 70.0 _ Earthshine ( 27 ) ____________ 49 ____ 51 ___ 24th best combined

_03 ___ 7.4 _ 190.0 _ WYorksWeather ( 35 ) ______ 53 ____ 56 ___ 30th best combined

_04 ___ 7.4 _ --- --- _ Mark Bayley ( 52 ) ___________ ---    

(05) ___ 7.3 _ 106.1 _ average 1991-2020 ________(25) ___ (30) ___ 6th best combined

_05 ___ 7.3 __ 84.0 _ weather26 ( 02 ) ____________ 42 ____ 47 ___ 18th best combined

_06 ___ 7.3 _ 110.0 _ summer8906 ( 08 ) _________ 23 ____ 29 ___ 5th best combined

_07 ___ 7.3 _ 182.5 _ Roger J Smith ( 28 ) _________ 47 ____ 54 ___t27th best combined

_08 ___ 7.5 _ --- --- _ Kentish Man ( 43 ) ___________ ---

_09 ___ 7.5 __ 97.0 _ Mulzy ( 48 ) __________________ 34 ____ 43 ___ 14th best combined

_10 ___ 7.5 _ 159.0 _ Feb1991Blizzard ( 49 ) _______ 35 ____ 45 ___t15th best combined

_11 ___ 7.3 _ 103.0 _ prolongedSnowLover ( 51 ) __ 28 ____ 39 ___10th best combined

_12 ___ 7.3 _ 120.0 _ seaside60 ( L1-1 ) ____________ 15 ____ 27 ___t2nd best combined

_13 ___ 7.2 _ 145.0 _ Jeff C ( 14 ) ____________________22 ____ 35 ___ 8th best combined

_14 ___ 7.2 _ 107.0 _ Methuselah ( 20 ) _____________24 ____ 38 ___ 9th best combined

_15 ___ 7.6 __ 97.0 _ dancerwithwings ( 21 ) ________33 ____ 48 ___t20th best combined

_16 ___ 7.6 __ 98.0 _ summer blizzard ( 24 ) ________32 ____ 48 ___ t20th best combined

_17 ___ 7.6 _ 134.9 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 46 ) ________10 ____ 27 ___t2nd best combined

_18 ___ 7.2 _ 130.0 _ Moorlander ( 58 ) ______________ 3 ____ 21 ____ best combined

_19 ___ 7.7 _ 145.0 _ Alexis J9 ( 05 ) _________________ 21 ____ 40 ___t11th best combined

_20 ___ 7.1 __ 87.0 _ sunny_vale ( 15 ) _______________41

_21 ___ 7.7 _ 186.0 _ Emmett Garland ( 22 ) _________50

_22 ___ 7.7 _ 135.0 _ stewfox ( 23 ) ___________________11 ____ 33 ____ 7th best combined

_23 ___ 7.1 _ 117.1 _ DR(S)NO ( 37 ) __________________17 ____ 40 ___ t11th best combined

_24 ___ 7.1 _ 121.0 _ Weather Observer ( 41 ) ________ 8 ____ 32 ____ 6th best combined

_25 ___ 7.1 _ --- --- _ damianslaw ( 44 ) _______________ ---

_26 ___ 7.7 _ 185.0 _ Don ( 50 ) _______________________48

_27 ___ 7.1 _ 112.0 __ Stationary Front ( 55 ) _________18 ____ 45 ___t15th best combined

(28) ___ 7.0 _ 100.4 _ average 1981-2010 ____________(29.3) _ (57.3)

_28 ___ 7.8 _ 103.6 _ bobd29 ( 01 ) ___________________27 ____ 55 ___ 29th best combined

_29 ___ 7.0 __ 90.0 _ NeilN ( 06 ) _____________________ 38

_30 ___ 7.0 _ 157.0 _ snowray ( 38. ) _________________ 30 

_31 ___ 7.0 __ 94.0 _ summer shower ( 47 ) __________34 

_32 ___ 7.9 _ 162.0 _ jonboy ( 31 ) ____________________37

_33 ___ 6.9 _ 149.0 _ virtualsphere ( 40 ) _____________25 

_34 ___ 7.9 _ --- --- __ Froze were the Days ( L1-2 ) ____---

_35 ___ 8.0 __ 90.0 _ B87 ( 07 )________________________39

_36 ___ 8.0 _ 120.0 _ Leo97t ( 29 ) ____________________13 ____ 49 ___ 22nd best combined

_37 ___ 8.0 _ 111.0 _ Mr Maunder ( 42 ) ______________20 ____ 57 ___t31st best combined

_38 ___ 6.8 _ 144.0 _ catbrainz ( 45 ) _________________ 19 ____ 57 ___t31st best combined 

_39 ___ 8.0 _ 130.0 _ J 10 ( 54 ) ________________________ 2 ____ 41 ___12th best combined

_40 ___ 6.8 _ 132.0 _ February1978 ( 56 ) _____________ 5 ____ 45 ___t15th best combined

_41 ___ 6.8 _ 123.0 _ metwatch ( 57 ) _________________ 7 ____ 48 ___19th best combined

_42 ___ 6.8 _ --- --- __ Walsall Wood Snow ( L1-3 ) _____---

_43 ___ 6.7 __ 67.0 __John88b ( 10 ) ___________________52

_44 ___ 8.1 _ 124.0 _ davehsug ( L1-4 ) ________________ 6 ____ 50 ___23rd best combined

_45 ___ 6.6 _ 121.0 _ noname_weather ( 53 ) __________9 ____ 54 ___t27th best combined

_46 ___ 6.4 _ 120.0 _ Frigid ( 11 ) ______________________12 

_47 ___ 8.4 __ 98.0 _ SteveB ( 16 ) _____________________31 

_48 ___ 6.4 __ 80.0 _ daniel* ( 25 ) ____________________ 44

_49 ___ 6.3 _ 124.0 _ rwtwm ( 18 ) _____________________ 4 ____ 53 ___ 26th best combined

_50 ___ 8.5 _ 137.0 _ mazelike ( 30 ) ___________________16 

_51 ___ 6.3 _ 126.0 _ godber 1 ( 36 ) ___________________ 1 ____ 52 ___ 25th best combined

(52) ___ 6.1 __ 93.8 _ average all data _________________(36)

_52 ___ 8.7 _ 172.0 _ Reef ( 32 ) ________________________43 

_53 ___ 8.8 _ 101.0 _ summer18 ( 09 ) _________________29 

_54 ___ 8.8 __ 60.0 _ somerset girl ( 13 ) _______________54

_55 ___ 8.8 _ 120.0 _ The PIT ( 34 ) ____________________ 14 

_56 ___ 5.9 __ 44.0 _ shillitocettwo ( 12 ) _______________55 

_57 ___ 8.9 _ --- --- __ Summer Sun ( 26 ) _______________---

_58 ___ 9.0 _ --- --- __ Typhoon John ( 03 ) ______________---

_59 ___ 9.1 _ 188.0 _ I remember Atlantic 252 ( 33 ) ___52

_60 ___ 9.1 __ 90.0 __ syed2878 ( 39 ) __________________40

_61 ___ 5.6 __ 79.0 _ chilly milly ( 04 ) __________________45

_62 ___ 4.0 __ 75.2 _ Polar Gael ( 19 ) __________________46

===============================

EWP entries in order

190_WYorks ... 188_I rem ... 186_EG ... 185_Don ... 182.5_RJS ... 172_Reef ... 162_jon ...159_Feb91 .. 157_snow ...

149_virt ... 145_Al-J9, Jeff ... 144_cat ... 137_maze ... 135_stew ... 134.9_mia ... 132_Feb78 ... 130_J 10, Moor ...

126_godb ... 124_rwtwm, dave^ ...  123_met ... 121_WxOb, non ... 120_Frig, leo, PIT, sea60^ ... 117.1_DR(S) ...

112_SF ... 111_MrM ... 110_sum8906 ... 107_meth ... 106.1_91-20 ... 104.7_93-22 ... 103.7_WT ... 103.6 _bobd29 ... 103_pSL ... 101_sum18 ...

100.4_81-10 ... 98_Steve, sb ... 97_dww, mul ... 94_sumsh ... 93.8_alldata ... 90_NN, B87, syed...

 87_sv ... 84_wx26 ... 80_dan ...  79_cm ... 75.2_PG ... 70_earth ... 67_john ... 60_sg ... 44_shil

 

Edited December 5, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Metwatch]

November CET has come out at 7.4C.

Bang on the 1991-20 average.

0.9C above the 1961-90 average.

[Relativistic]

Value for yesterday was 0.3°C, so almost a subzero mean. Perhaps we'll achieve the season's first today.

[Frigid]

Interestingly, the final CET came in the same as the CET consensus. Think this happened last December.

[Roger J Smith]

Yes, our consensus was also best combined rank for CET and EWP, equal to your own rank of 12th for EWP. 

Four contest entrants were on the right value 7.4 for CET, wold topper, Earthshine, WYorksWeather and Mark Bayley. (and 1993-2022 average)

EWP will probably go to either godber 1 (126 mm) or J 10 and moorlander (130 mm). I won't know for sure until 5 Dec, tracker will end near 127.5 mm in its final report tomorrow.  ... moorlander was best combined at 12th CET and 3rd (as of now) EWP. Wold Topper was one of four tied at second for best combined, with summer8906, midlands ice age, and seaside60. The 1991-2020 averages were also in a tie for second in best combined. 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP tracker ended its work at 127.7 mm. All scoring tables will be frozen until final EWP value is posted 5 Dec (or later). 

Godber 1 at 126 mm and J 10, moorlander at 130 mm are top scorers for Nov on provisional value but too close to call for final outcome as table values are often 1-2 mm different from tracker values (and occasionally more). 

Official word on annual contest results will need to wait for a final NOV value, but I can't see any plausible scenario for snowray not to come out on top despite best efforts of Jeff C (124 mm) and leo97t (120 mm) to score maximum points. Order of next ten to fifteen will be a scramble dependent on exact NOV scores. 

I will post validation scores for consensus and recent normals in a day or two. Top five in EWP, not as spectacular in CET but our consensus solid especially in autumn seasonal. I am feeling a bit like 'umpty dumpty (I 'ad a great fall) but now one letter on my keyboard won't work, can you guess w_ic_ one? Valuable prizes await successful respondent (s) . 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield ended on 7.2C so average son a rare time in recent years where the cold spell has managed to cancel out the mild spells. Rainfall 109.2mm 123.7% of average.

Autumn overall ended up at 11.9C +1.4C above average. Rainfall 413.3mm 174.3% of average.

Autumn the 3rd warmest on record here. It was also the third wettest  on record and the year so far the 6th wettest on record with 1013mm should grab third place which is 2000 with 1065mm 1979 is more of a challenge with 1132.6mm and I think 2012 is out of reach with 1217.7mm

[Roger J Smith]

Analysis of scoring for recent normals and our consensus 

 

_________________________________ Forecasts _______________ Errors ___________ Rank _______ 

"Robot" Forecaster _________ CET ___ EWP ___________ CET __ EWP ____ CET __ EWP 

1981-2010 average DEC ___ 4.5 ____ 97.4 ____________ +1.1 __-4.6 _____ 55 ____ 2.3

1981-2010 average JAN ___ 4.4 _____ 93.0 ____________ -0.8 __ -4.8 _____ 40 ___ 18.5

1981-2010 average FEB ___ 4.4 _____ 66.5 ___________ -2.1 __ +52.5 ____ 40 ___ 37.0

1981-2010 average MAR ___6.6 _____ 71.5 ___________ -0.4 __ -65.3 _____13 ___17.2

1981-2010 average APR ___ 8.5 _____ 64.8 ___________ -0.2 __ -12.1 _____11 ___ 23.2

1981-2010 average MAY __11.7 _____ 63.6 ___________ -0.8 __+20.1 _____50 ___ 24.6

1981-2010 average JUN ___14.4 _____ 66.3 ___________-2.6 __+16.3 _____44 ___ 44.2

1981-2010 average JUL____16.6 _____ 67.3 ___________+0.5 __-62.2 ______ 6 ___ 28.4

1981-2010 average AUG __ 16.5 _____ 75.6 ___________ 0.0 __ +0.6 _______3 ___ 0.8*

1981-2010 average SEP ___ 14.0 _____ 77.2 ___________-3.0 __-13.8 ______58 ___5.5

1981-2010 average OCT ___ 10.5 _____104.1___________-1.6 __-73.2 ______58 ___24.2

1981-2010 average NOV ____ 7.0 _____ 100.4 __________-0.4 __-27.3 ______28 ___29.2 

*rank 0.8 for AUG EWP was better than all forecasters (error 0.6, their low error 2.0).  For CET I rounded 16.45 (1981-2010 value now in v2.0.1.0) up to 16.5. Even so, 1981-2010 was clearly a very accurate forecast of Aug 2023. 

----------------

1991-2020 average DEC ___ 4.8 ____103.6 ____________ +1.4 __+1.6 _____ 63 ___ 0.4

1991-2020 average JAN ___ 4.7 _____ 94.2 _____________ -0.5 __ -3.6 _____ 28 ___ 17.8

1991-2020 average FEB ___ 5.0 _____ 72.4 _____________ -1.5 __ 58.4 ____ 39 ___ 40.3

1991-2020 average MAR ___6.7 _____ 65.4 _____________ -0.3 __-71.4 ____11 ___ 30.6

1991-2020 average APR ___ 9.0 _____ 63.2 _____________ +0.3 __-13.7 ____16 ___ 25.1

1991-2020 average MAY ___11.9 ____ 62.7 ______________-0.6 __ 19.2 ____42 ___ 21.1

1991-2020 average JUN ___ 14.6 ____ 70.5 ______________ -2.4 __20.5 ____ 50 ___ 47.2

1991-2020 average JUL ____16.8 ____ 72.0 ______________ +0.7__-57.5_____10 ___ 22.0

1991-2020 average AUG ___16.6 ____ 82.3 ______________+0.2 __ +7.3 _____ 6 ____ 9.6

1991-2020 average SEP ___ 14.2 ____ 76.0 ______________-2.8 __-15.0 _____ 56 ___ 6.0

1991-2020 average OCT ___ 10.8 ____102.9______________-1.3 __-74.4 _____ 56 __ 24.5

1991-2020 average NOV ____ 7.3 ____106.1 _____________ -0.1__-21.6 ______ 5 __ 25.1

---------------

1992-2021 average DEC ___ 4.9 ____105.5 _____________ +1.5 __+3.5 _____ 65 ___ 0.9

1993-2022 average JAN ___ 4.7 _____ 95.4 _____________ -0.5 __ -2.4 _____ 28 ___ 13.5

1993-2022 average FEB ___ 5.1 _____ 74.9 _____________-1.4 __ +60.5 ____ 36 ___ 41.4

1993-2022 average MAR ___ 6.7 _____63.6 _____________-0.3 __ -73.2 ____ 11 ___ 32.7

1993-2022 average APR ____8.9 _____59.8 _____________ +0.2 __-17.1 ____ 11 ___ 32.2

1993-2022 average MAY ___11.9 ____ 66.6 _____________ -0.6 ___ 23.1 ____ 42 ___ 29.8

1993-2022 average JUN ____14.7 ____ 69.5 _____________-2.3 ___ 19.5 ____ 49 ___ 45.8

1993-2022 average JUL ____ 16.9 ____ 70.5 ____________ +0.8 __ -59.0_____ 14 ___ 22.7

1993-2022 average AUG ___ 16.6 ____ 79.9 ____________ +0.2 __ +4.9 ______ 6 ____ 2.9

1993-2022 average SEP ____ 14.3 ____ 75.9 ____________ -2.7 __ -15.1 _____ 56 ___ 6.1

1993-2022 average OCT ____ 11.0 ____106.1 ____________-1.1 __ -71.2 _____ 53 ___ 21.7

1993-2022 average NOV _____ 7.4 ___ 104.7 _____________ 0.0 __ -23.0 _____ 1 ___ 25.6

-----------------

consensus DEC ____________ 3.5 ____ 63.0 ______________ +0.1 __-39.0 _____ 04 __ 39

consensus JAN _____________5.1 ____ 99.5 _______________-0.1 __ +1.7 _____ 1.5 __ 5.9

consensus FEB ____________ 5.4 ____ 65.0 _______________-1.1 __ +51.0 ____ 29 ___ 31

consensus MAR ___________ 5.9 ____ 67.0 _______________-1.1 __ -69.8 ____ 27 ___ 25

consensus APR ____________ 9.0 ____ 65.0 _______________+0.3 __-11.9 ____ 16 ___ 20

consensus MAY ____________12.3 ___ 65.0 _______________-0.2 __ 21.5 _____ 23 ___ 25

consensus JUN _____________15.4 ___ 50.0 _______________-1.6 __ +1.2 _____26 ___ 11

consensus JUL _____________ 17.6 ___ 68.0 ______________ +1.5 __-61.5 ____ 30 ___ 27

consensus AUG ____________16.8 ___ 82.7 ______________ +0.4 __ +7.7 ____ 16 ____10

consensus SEP _____________15.5 ___ 56.0 ______________ -1.5 __ -35.0 ____ 30 ____26

consensus OCT _____________12.5 ___ 98.0 ______________ +0.4 __ -79.3 ____19 ___ 28

consensus NOV _____________ 7.4 ___120.0 ______________ 0.0 ___ -7.7 _____ 1 ____ 12

=======================

"Robot Forecaster" _______________________________________ avg err ________ avg rank

- - - - - - - - - - - - - -_________________________________________ CET __ EWP ____CET __ EWP

1981-2010 mean of 11 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________1.13 __28.87 ___ 34.4 __ 21.2 

1991-2020 mean of 11 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________0.99 __28.74 ___ 31.9 __ 22.5 

1993-2022 mean of 11 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________0.95 __26.70 ___ 30.9 __ 22.9 

consensus mean of 11 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________0.68 _ 31.33 ____17.9 __ 21.6 

(note mean of errors is mean of absolute errors, not actual errors)

(mean of actual errors is "bias" of forecasts and is -0.8 for 1981-2010 and -0.5 for 1991-2020, and is -0.24 for our consensus, meaning on average our consensus forecasts were 0.24 below outcomes but normals were 0.5 to 0.8 below outcomes ... it's a different measure of consensus being a bit better compared to normals ... for bias of EWP forecasts, it's opposite tendency, our average forecast was about 15 mm too low but the normals averaged 10 to 12 mm too low).

-----------------------------------------------------------------

ANALYSIS: For CET, November narrowly widened gap between consensus and normals, as our consensus gained a bit more ground and finished well into a statistically significant position relative to the random aspect of normals. For EWP, the trend also favoured consensus over normals but still finished the contest year a bit behind normals.

It appears most of us are making skilled forecasts of CET but not EWP where using normal values would improve our scores. In fact, only top 4 or 5 EWP forecasters are improving on normals, while top two-thirds of the CET contest field achieve at least some improvement over normals. 

A forecast 0.2 to 0.4 above recent CET averages, and 10-15 mm wetter, would yield best strategic results. Possibly a range of 0.2 below to 0.8 above depending on consensus, and 15 mm below to 30 mm above, again depending on consensus, would be excellent (swing wider in cases of early signs favoring 2023's general mild/wet tendency, go conservative on cool/dry indicators). 

[Metwatch]

Random CET fact of the month:

Daily CET 7th September 23.3C, daily CET 30th November at 0.3C, Nice contrast this autumn start to end!