November 2023 C.E.T. and EWP contests -- final month of the 2022-23 competitions

[mulzy]

7.5C and 97mm please

[feb1991blizzard]

7.5c and 159mm please

[Don]

7.7C and 185mm please.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Can I go for 7.3c and 103mm please ?

[Mark Bayley]

7.4c please 

[noname_weather]

6.6C and 121mm

[J10]

Mild and Wet 8.0c and 130mm.

[Stationary Front]

7.1 with 112mm please 

[February1978]

6.8c & 132mm please

Wet and relatively cool

[Metwatch]

6.8C and 123mm.

Wet first half and potentially first 2 thirds, and maybe a drier final week to 10 days but more likely that will still be Atlantic driven and westerly with near average rainfall. I don't think it will be as wet as last November, but not far off (famous last words for the October entry ).

Temperatures near average I would say. Maybe something colder at the end might take hold but not a very high chance of that I wouldn't think.

Edited October 31, 2023 by Metwatch

[moorlander]

7.2c and 130mm

[Roger J Smith]

 

Table of entries for November, 2023

 

CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (order of entry) __________CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (order of entry)

 9.1 _ 188.0 _ I remember Atlantic 252 ( 33 ) _____7.4 _ 104.7 _ average 1993-2022 _________

 9.1 __ 90.0 __ syed2878 ( 39 ) ____________________ 7.4 _ 103.7 _ Wold Topper ( 17 ) _________

 9.0 _ --- --- __ Typhoon John ( 03 ) ________________7.4 __ 70.0 _ Earthshine ( 27 ) ____________

 8.9 _ --- --- __ Summer Sun ( 26 ) _________________7.4 _ 190.0 _ WYorksWeather ( 35 ) _____  

 8.8 _ 101.0 _ summer18 ( 09 ) ____________________7.4 _ --- --- _ Mark Bayley ( 52 ) _________   

 8.8 __ 60.0 _ somerset girl ( 13 ) _________________ 7.3 _ 106.1 _ average 1991-2020 _________

 8.8 _ 120.0 _ The PIT ( 34 ) ______________________7.3 __ 84.0 _ weather26 ( 02 ) _____________

 8.7 _ 172.0 _ Reef ( 32 ) __________________________ 7.3 _ 110.0 _ summer8906 ( 08 ) __________

 8.5 _ 137.0 _ mazelike ( 30 ) ______________________7.3 _ 182.5 _ Roger J Smith ( 28 ) __________

 8.4 __ 98.0 _ SteveB ( 16 ) ________________________ 7.3 _ 103.0 _ prolongedSnowLover ( 51 ) __

 8.1 _ 124.0 _ davehsug ( L1-4 ) __________________ 7.3 _ 120.0 _ seaside60 ( L1-1 ) ____________

 8.0 __ 90.0 _ B87 ( 07 )____________________________ 7.2 _ 145.0 _ Jeff C ( 14 ) __________________

 8.0 _ 120.0 _ Leo97t ( 29 ) ________________________ 7.2 _ 107.0 _ Methuselah ( 20 ) ___________

 8.0 _ 111.0 _ Mr Maunder ( 42 ) _________________ 7.2 _ 130.0 _ Moorlander ( 58 ) __________

 8.0 _ 130.0 _ J 10 ( 54 ) ____________________________ 7.1 __ 87.0 _ sunny_vale ( 15 ) _____________

 ____________________________________________________ 7.1 _ 117.1 _ DR(S)NO ( 37 ) _______________

 ____________________________________________________ 7.1 _ 121.0 _ Weather Observer ( 41 ) ___ 

 ____________________________________________________ 7.1 _ --- --- _ damianslaw ( 44 ) ___________

 7.9 _ 162.0 _ jonboy ( 31 ) _________________________ 7.1 _ 112.0 __ Stationary Front ( 55 ) _____

 7.9 _ --- --- __ Froze were the Days ( L1-2 ) ________7.0 _ 100.4 _ average 1981-2010 _________

_____________________________________________________ 7.0 __ 90.0 _ NeilN ( 06 ) __________________

_____________________________________________________ 7.0 _ 157.0 _ snowray ( 38. ) ______________

  ____________________________________________________ 7.0 __ 94.0 _ summer shower ( 47 ) ______

 7.8 _ 103.6 _ bobd29 ( 01 ) _________________________ 6.9 _ 149.0 _ virtualsphere ( 40 ) _________

 7.7 _ 145.0 _ Alexis J9 ( 05 ) ________________________ 6.8 _ 144.0 _ catbrainz ( 45 ) _______________

 7.7 _ 186.0 _ Emmett Garland ( 22 ) _______________ 6.8 _ 132.0 _ February1978 ( 56 ) __________

 7.7 _ 135.0 _ stewfox ( 23 ) _________________________6.8 _ 123.0 _ metwatch ( 57 ) _____________

 7.7 _ 185.0 _ Don ( 50 ) _____________________________6.8 _ --- --- __ Walsall Wood Snow ( L1-3 ) __

______________________________________________________6.7 __ 67.0 __John88b ( 10 ) _______________

 7.6 __ 97.0 _ dancerwithwings ( 21 ) _______________ 6.6 _ 121.0 _ noname_weather ( 53 ) _____

 7.6 __ 98.0 _ summer blizzard ( 24 ) ________________6.4 _ 120.0 _ Frigid ( 11 ) __________________

 7.6 _ 134.9 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 46 ) _______________6.4 __ 80.0 _ daniel* ( 25 ) __________________

 7.5 _ --- --- _ Kentish Man ( 43 ) ____________________ 6.3 _ 126.0 _ godber 1 ( 36 ) ________________

 7.5 __ 97.0 _ Mulzy ( 48 ) __________________________ 6.3 _ 124.0 _ rwtwm ( 18 ) __________________

 7.5 _ 159.0 _ Feb1991Blizzard ( 49 ) _______________ 6.1 __ 93.8 _ average all data (CET 1659-2022, EWP 1766-2022)

 ____________________________________________________ 5.9 __ 44.0 _ shillitocettwo ( 12 ) __________

 7.4 _ 120.0 _ consensus __________________________ 5.6 __ 79.0 _ chilly milly ( 04 ) _____________

_____________________________________________________4.0 __ 75.2 _ Polar Gael ( 19 ) ______________

 

__ 58 on time entries, plus four so far one day late, total 62, 

__ __ __ consensus (median value) 7.4 C ( and 120.0 mm )

===============================

EWP entries in order

190_WYorks ... 188_I rem ... 186_EG ... 185_Don ... 182.5_RJS ... 172_Reef ... 162_jon ...159_Feb91 .. 157_snow ...

149_virt ... 145_Al-J9, Jeff ... 144_cat ... 137_maze ... 135_stew ... 134.9_mia ... 132_Feb78 ... 130_J 10, Moor ...

126_godb ... 124_rwtwm, dave^ ...  123_met ... 121_WxOb, non ... 120_Frig, leo, PIT, sea60^ ... 117.1_DR(S) ...

112_SF ... 111_MrM ... 110_sum8906 ... 107_meth ...

106.1_91-20 ... 104.7_93-22 ... 103.7_WT ... 103.6 _bobd29 ... 103_pSL ... 101_sum18 ...

100.4_81-10 ... 98_Steve, sb ... 97_dww, mul ... 94_sumsh ... 93.8_alldata ... 90_NN, B87, syed...

 87_sv ... 84_wx26 ... 80_dan ...  79_cm ... 75.2_PG ... 70_earth ... 67_john ... 60_sg ... 44_shil

 

... ... 53 on-time forecasts, plus two late ^, 55 total

... ... ... consensus (median) 120.0 mm

 

== <<< LATER FORECASTS accepted to end of Friday 3 Nov, will be added to post above >>> ==

 

Edited November 1, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[seaside 60]

Meant to do this and forgot.

7.3c

120mm

[Froze were the Days]

Sorry late to the party...7.9c for me

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Sorry I'm late again. I'll guess 6.8c please.

[davehsug]

Wasn't going to bother as I'm late agai, but I've entered every one so I might as well.

8.1C & 124mm please

[Roger J Smith]

CET November 1981-2010 averages and 1772-2022 extremes

______________________________________________________

 

 

all data converted to CET v2.0 values

Date _______CET mean__CET cum____MAX ______________ MIN _________ CET running mean (extreme values)

01 Nov ___ 9.4 ______ 9.4 ______ 13.7 (1894) ______ 1.1 (1926) ___ 13.7 (1894) ____ 1.1 (1926)
02 Nov ___ 8.9 ______ 9.2 ______ 14.3 (1821) ______ 0.4 (1880) ___ 13.9 (1894) ____ 2.0 (1880)
03 Nov ___ 8.9 ______ 9.1 ______ 15.0 (1996) ______ 1.8 (1980) ___ 13.6 (1894) ____ 2.7 (1880)
04 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.9 ______ 14.2 (1946) _____0.8 (1845&48) _ 13.1 (1996) ____2.7 (1880)
05 Nov ___ 8.2 ______ 8.7 ______ 15.5 (1938) ____ 0.8 (1801&1901) __12.7 (1894) __ 3.1 (1782)

06 Nov ___ 8.0 ______ 8.6 ______ 14.2 (2015) ______ 0.7 (1868) ___ 12.3 (1996) ____ 2.7 (1782)
07 Nov ___ 8.2 ______ 8.6 ______ 13.7 (2015) _____ --0.6 (1791) ___ 11.8 (1938) ____ 2.4 (1782)
08 Nov ___ 8.6 ______ 8.6 ______ 13.4 (1852) _____ --1.2 (1812) ___ 11.8 (1938) ____ 2.4 (1782)
09 Nov ___ 8.0 ______ 8.5 ______ 12.3 (1988) ______ 0.2 (1921) ____ 11.8 (1938) ____ 2.3 (1782)
10 Nov ___ 7.8 ______ 8.4 ______ 13.2 (1977&2015) __ 0.1 (1812) __ 11.7 (1938&2015) _ 2.4 (1782)
 
11 Nov ___ 8.2 ______ 8.4 ______ 13.8 (2015) ______ 0.3 (1828) ___ 11.9 (2015) _____ 2.4 (1782)
12 Nov ___ 8.1 ______ 8.4 _____ 13.8 (1938,1947)_ --1.5 (1919) __ 11.9 (1938) _____ 2.6 (1782)
13 Nov ___ 7.0 ______ 8.3 ______ 14.7 (1938) _____ --0.9 (1862) ___ 12.1 (1938) _____ 2.6 (1782)
14 Nov ___ 6.7 ______ 8.2 ______ 13.4 (1938) _____ --1.0 (1925) ___ 12.2 (1938) _____ 2.5 (1782&1919)
15 Nov ___ 6.7 ______ 8.1 ______ 13.5 (1821) _____ --2.1 (1965) ___ 12.0 (1938) _____ 2.3 (1919)

16 Nov ___ 6.6 ______ 8.0 ______ 13.3 (1997) _____ --2.3 (1901) ___ 11.9 (1938) _____ 2.1 (1919)
17 Nov ___ 6.2 ______ 7.9 ______ 12.9 (1997) _____ --2.0 (1841) ___ 11.8 (1938) _____ 2.3 (1919)
18 Nov ___ 6.6 ______ 7.8 ______ 12.7 (2020) ____ --1.3 (1798&1871) __11.6 (1938)__ 2.6 (1919)
19 Nov ___ 6.2 ______ 7.7 _____ 12.5 (1994&2003) _ --2.1 (1815) __ 11.4 (1938) _____ 2.9 (1786&1919)
20 Nov ___ 6.0 ______ 7.6 ______ 12.7 (2009) _____ --1.2 (1829) ___ 11.2 (1938) _____ 2.9 (1786)

21 Nov ___ 5.7 ______ 7.5 ______ 13.7 (1947) _____ --1.5 (1880) ___ 10.9 (1938) _____ 2.9 (1786)
22 Nov ___ 5.6 ______ 7.4 ______ 14.4 (1947) _____ --2.3 (1773) ___ 10.7 (1938) _____ 2.8 (1786)
23 Nov ___ 5.6 ______ 7.3 ______ 13.3 (1947) _____ --3.9 (1858) ___ 10.5 (1938) _____ 2.7 (1782)
24 Nov ___ 5.7 ______ 7.2 ______ 12.5 (1980) _____ --3.6 (1816) ___ 10.4 (1994) _____ 2.6 (1782)
25 Nov ___ 6.1 ______ 7.2 ______ 12.1 (1964) _____ --1.9 (1923) ___ 10.4 (1994) _____ 2.5 (1782)

26 Nov ___ 6.1 ______ 7.1 ______ 11.9 (1983) _____ --2.1 (1904) ___ 10.4 (1994) _____ 2.4 (1782)
27 Nov ___ 5.9 ______ 7.1 ______ 11.3 (1818) _____ --2.7 (1890) ___ 10.4 (1994) _____ 2.3 (1782)
28 Nov ___ 5.6 ______ 7.0 ______ 12.0 (1828) _____ --4.0 (2010) ___ 10.2 (1994) _____ 2.2 (1782)
29 Nov ___ 5.4 ______ 7.0 ______ 12.2 (1818) _____ --2.6 (1801) ___ 10.1 (1994) _____ 2.3 (1782)
30 Nov ___ 5.6 ______ 7.0 ______ 12.3 (2001) ___ --1.6 (1796&1973) __9.9 (1994) ___ 2.3 (1782)

Note that legacy record lows have been substantially altered in a few cases, the -4.6 for 24 Nov 1904 went to -3.5 and is not even a daily record now, 1816 took that with -3.6. Also 23rd 1858 was -4.2 in legacy, but 28th 2010 at -4.0 (unchanged) is now the monthly record. 

_________________________________________________________________

1991-2020 CET daily and running means 

01 ___ 9.6 __ 9.6 _______ 11 ___ 8.0 __ 8.5 _______ 21 ___ 6.1 __ 7.8

02 ___ 9.0 __ 9.3 _______ 12 ___ 8.3 __ 8.5 _______ 22 ___ 6.2 __ 7.7

03 ___ 9.2 __ 9.3 _______ 13 ___ 7.4 __ 8.4 _______ 23 ___ 5.9 __ 7.6

04 ___ 8.6 __ 9.1 _______ 14 ___ 7.6 __ 8.3 _______ 24 ___ 6.2 __ 7.6

05 ___ 8.5 __ 9.0 _______ 15 ___ 7.6 __ 8.3 _______ 25 ___ 6.4 __ 7.5

06 ___ 8.4 __ 8.9 _______ 16 ___ 7.3 __ 8.2 _______ 26 ___ 6.4 __ 7.5

07 ___ 8.6 __ 8.9 _______ 17 ___ 6.7 __ 8.2 _______ 27 ___ 6.6 __ 7.5

08 ___ 8.2 __ 8.8 _______ 18 ___ 6.7 __ 8.1 _______ 28 ___ 6.3 __ 7.4

09 ___ 7.8 __ 8.7 _______ 19 ___ 6.3 __ 8.0 _______ 29 ___ 5.9 __ 7.4

10 ___ 7.7 __ 8.6 _______ 20 ___ 6.0 __ 7.9 _______ 30 ___ 5.7 __ 7.3

 

[Summer Sun]

11.2c to the 1st

4.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[Weather-history]

A very dry November, that's a rare beast and a very dry November is not that "dry" compared to other months. For example, November 2021 is the 11th driest November for the EWP with 41.9mm.

Compared that value against the other months and where  it would appear in their rankings

January: 41st

February: 68th

March: 75th

April: 72nd

May: 56th

June: Joint 60th

July:  39th

August: Joint 25th

September: Joint 43rd

October: Joint 24th

December: Joint 32nd

 

[seaside 60]

19 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

11.2c to the 1st

4.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.8c above the 81 to 10 average

Is that a typo or is there really 3c between the 2 set year groups.

[Summer Sun]

9.9c to the 2nd

3.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

10 hours ago, seaside 60 said:

Is that a typo or is there really 3c between the 2 set year groups.

Not a typo but result of different ways to compare data, metoffice used to give us differential between running mean and 1961-90 running mean. Stopped doing it in v2.0 (starting Apr 2022) but we were using our own 1981-2010 data to produce same stat before, and we continue to do it now, so you are looking at end of Nov mean for 1961-90 and 1-2 Nov mean (today) for 1981-2010. Daily means fall off by about 3 C deg in Nov so you will continue to see a large difference in stats until close to end, 1981-2010 was a bit milder so even at end a small differential will be evident.

---------------------

EWP update, started on 18 mm (1st) and added about 8 more on 2nd for estimated 26 mm, GFS says by 19 Nov EWP will be 70 mm as a more average sort of regime develops, and CET projection is also fairly close to average but generally mild for 3-19 Nov, estimate by 19 Nov CET at 8.0 to 8.5 C.

[Summer Sun]

9.9c to the 3rd

3.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

November is a rapidly cooling month just as October is. It looks a fairly mild 10 days ahead, meaning we should be comfortably above the 81-10 average by mid month.

[summer blizzard]

While I doubt we will see such a contrast, do we know what the first halves of 2005 and 2010 averaged.