November 2023 C.E.T. and EWP contests -- final month of the 2022-23 competitions

[Roger J Smith]

Posting a bit early because it's ready and full of data ... 

This month is the final stage of the 2022-2023 competition year. CET November historical information in part 1 below, EWP in part two. Good luck !!

(a) C.E.T. forecast competition -- averages and extremes for November

(note: all data adjusted to v2.0.1.0 CET)

Recent 42 months 1981-2022 are shown in three groups, mildest (bold), median (italics) and coldest (underlined). The ties mentioned are in one decimal values from v2.0.1.0, but the table recognizes ranks based on two decimals not shown. 

15.5 ... warmest day (5th, 1938)

14.4 ... warmest day in second half (22nd, 1947)

 9.9 ... warmest Nov 1994

 9.5 ... second warmest Nov 2011

 9.5 ... third warmest (by second decimal) Nov 1818 

 9.4 ... tied fourth warmest Nov 2015 and 1938

 9.3 ... sixth warmest Nov 1743

 9.2 ... tied seventh warmest Nov 2022 and 1730

 9.1 ... ninth warmest Nov 1817

 8.9 ... tenth warmest Nov 1881 

 8.7 ... eleventh warmest Nov 1939

 8.6 ... tied 12th warmest Nov 2009 (with 1821)

 8.5 ... tied 14th warmest Nov 2014, 2020 (with 1899, 1951, 1953)

 8.4 ... tied 19th warmest Nov 2002 (with 1913)

 8.3 ... tied 21st warmest Nov  2018 (with 1978)

 8.2 ... tied 23rd warmest Nov 1997 (with 1822 and 1963) 

 8.1 ... tied 26th warmest 1729, 1946

 8.0 ... tied 28th warmest Nov 2003, 2006 (with 1661, 1710)

 7.9 ... most recent 1894 (tied 1847, 1852) 

 7.8 ... ... 1984

 7.7 ... ... 1982, 1999

 7.6 ... ... 1981, 1986, 2004 

 7.5 ... ... 1995, 2001  ... ... ...

 7.4 ... ... 1983 ... ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 2001-2022 ---- (also 1993-2022) 

 7.3 ... most recent 1960 ... ... ---- average of 1991-2020 ---- 

 7.2 ... ... 1992, 2007, 2021 ... ... ... ...

 7.1 ... most recent 1959... ... ... ... ... ... ... 

 7.0 ... ... 2008 ... ... ... ... ... ---- average of 1981-2010 ----

 6.9 ... most recent 1954 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 

 6.8 ... ... 2000, 2012, 2017 ... ... 

 6.7 ... ... 1990 ... ... ... ... ---- average of 1971-2000 ---- 

 6.6 ... ... 1991 ... ... ... ... ... ... ......  

 6.5 ... most recent 1968 ... ... ... ... ... ...... 

 6.4 ... ... 1987 ... ... ... ... ... ---- average of 1961-1990, 1901-2000 ----

 6.3 ... most recent 1972 ... ... ...

 6.2 ... ... 2019 ... ... 

 6.1 ... ... 2005, 2013 ... ... ... ... ... ---- average of all years 1659-2022 ---- (6.08)

 6.0 ... ... 1989, 1998 ... ...

 5.9 ... most recent 1926 ... ... ......  ---- average of 1801-1900 ----

 5.8 ... most recent 1883 ... ... ......   ---- average of 1701-1800 ----

 5.7 ... ... 1996

 5.6 ... most recent 1966 ... ... ... ...  ---- average of 1659-1700 ----

 5.5 ... ... 2016 ... ... 

 5.4 ... most recent 1969 ... 5.3 most recent 1884 ... 5.2 most recent 1904

 5.1 ... ... 2010 ... ...

 5.0 ... ... 1988 ... ... 

 4.9 ... most recent 1942 ... 4.8 most recent 1909 ... 4.7 most recent 1870 ... 4.6 most recent 1921

 4.5 ... ... 1993 ... ... 

 4.4 ... most recent 1887 ... 4.3 most recent 1896 ... 4.2 1861 and 1952 ... 4.1 1819 and 1879 ... 4.0 1688, 97, 98 and 1750

 3.9 .... coldest in recent years 1985 (tied 20th overall, also 1705, 1756, 1765, 1816)

 3.8 ... no years ... 3.7 (19) 1739 ... 3.6 (18) 1925 ... 3.5 (t15) 1676, 1679, 1878 ... 3.4 (t13) 1815, 1871

 3.3 .... tied eighth coldest 1740, 1746, 1786, 1919, 1923

 3.2 .... tied sixth coldest 1862 with 1910

 3.1 .... fifth coldest Nov 1851

 3.0 .... fourth coldest Nov 1684

 2.9 .... third coldest Nov 1807

 2.8 .... second coldest Nov 1915

 2.3 .... coldest Nov 1782

--0.6 ... earliest sub-zero mean (7th, 1791)

--2.1 ... coldest in first half (15th, 1965)

--4.0 ... coldest day (28th, 2010) 
__________________________________________________

 

Enter your CET forecast by Tuesday, October 31st at midnight, or with increasing late penalties on the first three days of November.

===============================================================================

(b) Optional E.W.P. forecast contest -- November 2023

__ contest is scored using Hadley EWP data __

__ winter month snowfall is converted by liquid equivalent, roughly 10:1 reduction factor, e.g. 10 cm snow = 10 mm precip __

 

202.5 mm __ 1852 _ wettest 1766-2022 ... also second wettest month to Oct 1903

200.8 mm __ 1770 _ 2nd wettest ... also third wettest month overall

196.5 mm __ 1940 _ wettest of 20th century... 1929 had 195.9 mm

192.1 mm __ 2009 _ wettest since 1981

110.2 mm __ 1925-54 highest 30-year average for Nov

106.1 mm __ mean for 1991-2020 

104.7 mm __ mean for 1993-2022

100.4 mm __ mean for 1981-2010

 93.8 mm __ mean for all data 1766-2022 

 76.9 mm __ 1845-74 lowest 30-year average for Nov

 41.9 mm __ 2021 _ driest since 1981 

 23.1 mm ___1805 _  second driest 1766-2022

 17.0 mm ___1945 _ driest 1766-2022 

___________________________ ** __________________________

Recent November EWP  ...  

2022 _159.0 mm ... ... 2021 _ 41.9 mm ... ... 2020 _ 67.9 mm ... ... 2019 _ 138.1 mm

2018 _ 104.9 ... ... 2017 _ 81.0 ... ... 2016 _ 116.6 ... ... 2015 _ 126.7 ... ... 2014 _ 126.8 ... ... 2013 _ 79.2

2012 _ 135.8 ... ... 2011 _ 52.9 ... ... 2010 _ 97.5 ... ... 2009 _ 192.1 ... ... 2008 _ 94.0 ... ... 2007 _ 80.9

2006 _ 108.6 ... ... 2005 _ 86.1 ... ... 2004 _ 52.8 ... ... 2003 _ 116.6 ... ... 2002 _ 176.2 ... ... 2001 _ 65.0

>>> Enter your EWP forecast in mm with your CET forecast, same deadlines 

Good luck in this final contest of the current competition year. 

[Bobd29]

Hi 7.8C and 103.6mm please

[Polar Gael]

6.9°C and 144.8mm for me please.

[Weather26]

Since it's looking November is going to follow on from October, 7.3C and 84mm please.

[Typhoon John]

9C please

[chilly milly]

5.6c and 79mm please

[alexisj9]

7.7, 145mm

[NeilN]

7.0c and 90mm.

Guns n Roses were not telling lies about the November Rain. 

[B87]

8.0c and 90mm

[Summer8906]

7.3 and 110mm.

First half mild and wet, second half colder and drier. Second half likely to produce the best conditions of the remainder of the year but still slightly wetter than average overall due to a very wet first half.

One curious thing about previous Novembers is that almost all of my favourite ones are towards the bottom of the CET list, yet one of them, 2011, is second-warmest. A very unusual combination of mild and sunny.

Interesting also that November 1989 was slightly colder than average. I recall it being again mostly a rare combination of mild and sunny, turning colder in the final week.

Also surprising is that November 2016 was relatively wet (I recall it being dry), 2017 not that dry (I recall it being very dry) and 2020 drier than either (and I'm sure that was dull and wet).

Edited October 21, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer18]

8.8c and 101mm

[John88B]

6.7c and 67mm please.

[Frigid]

Have a feeling this November won't be exceptionally mild like the last few ones.. famous last words. 

6.4C and 120mm. Thanks 

[Shillitocettwo]

  I think November will be a bit of a shocker after such a protracted run of above average months. The first portion will be about average for what November's should do, 10-12.C by day single figures by night but a protracted run of cold from the NE second half with some air frosts and precipitation, where it does fall will be wet snow, which may even give a covering in places to wake up to. As such (I might regret this) but 5.9.C and 44mm

[Somerset girl]

8.8C and 60mm of rain ..

November is the No sun month for me or it has been . 

From mid month onwards with the light dropping it gets more tricky to feel upbeat , but the sun when it does show has the lovely orange glow at sunset . 

[JeffC]

7.2C 145 mms please

[sunny_vale]

7.1C and 87mm for me please. 

[SteveB]

8.4c and 98mm please. 

[Wold Topper]

7.4°c and 103.7mm please.

[rwtwm]

I think we might just break the run of above average months here. And if I'm miles out the new comp starts next month anyway!

6.3°C & 124mm please

[Polar Gael]

On 20/10/2023 at 16:17, Polar Gael said:

6.9°C and 144.8mm for me please.

Revising this downwards to 4.0°C and 75.2mm please.

[Methuselah]

7.2C and 107mm please, Roger.

[Dancerwithwings]

7.6C & 97mm

[emmett garland]

7.7 and 186mm please roger

[stewfox]

7.7c 135mm