November 2023 C.E.T. and EWP contests -- final month of the 2022-23 competitions

[Roger J Smith]

Anyone going cold for Nov 2023 will be ecstatic over current GFS guidance, it drops CET steadily into 6s towards even upper 5 range. It may stay around 8 for a few days now before starting into a decline. 

[Don]

2 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Anyone going cold for Nov 2023 will be ecstatic over current GFS guidance, it drops CET steadily into 6s towards even upper 5 range. It may stay around 8 for a few days now before starting into a decline. 

A short while ago my guess looked to be possibly too high, but now looks possibly too low!  

All part of the fun in this game I suppose?!  

[damianslaw]

Nearing the half way stage, despite much colder synoptics appearing for later in the month, the reliable time period will no doubt return more above average temps than below..Not expecting much of a drop in the days ahead, probably be high 7s by this time next week.

If we do see mid atlantic heights set up, frost will return and near average temps. Too early to call how things may end up, quite a wide margin, slim outside chance end in the 5s but would need significant cold last 10 days, more realistically a finish mid 6s to mid 7s, might be high 7s or low 8s if we maintain the theme of this week to the end.

Unlike most months this year, when by mid month it was quite clear how second half would pan out, this one has a wide range of options still. 

Edited November 13, 2023 by damianslaw

[Don]

52 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Unlike most months this year, when by mid month it was quite clear how second half would pan out, this one has a wide range of options still. 

Indeed, many still in the November CET game! 

[Summer Sun]

8.4c to the 13th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

EWP is around 80 mm now and GFS only adds on about 20 more, but its cool, dry outlook would need to verify 10-15 days into the future, a big unknown that also affects CET projections. In the short term, CET could rise a bit to near 9.0 by 19th before falling away, into at least the 7s if not 6s eventually. But same doubt applies to any long-range trend, it's a wait and see on these outcomes.

Edited November 15, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

8.6c to the 14th

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield back up to 8.1C -0.9C below average. Rainfall 63.5mm 71.9% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

8.6c to the 15th

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 8.1C -0.7C below average. Rainfall 63.6mm 72% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

8.4c to the 16th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[WYorksWeather]

I think we're getting towards the moment of truth. It's still just about possible that next week is cold enough to get us below the 1961-1990 average, but probably a bit of a long shot.

The ECM 0z from this morning shows the following, for Luton, Pershore and Clitheroe (close analogues to the CET stations since Rothamsted and Stonyhurst aren't available on the meteograms):

  

General consensus seems to be above average over the next few days then average later on (though below average relative to the November average, since we're towards the end of the month). There is some variation, and a major cold spell might still get us there, but the odds seem to be very much against it being of sufficient length and intensity to really do much to the CET overall. My best guess at the moment would be a finish in the mid 7s range.

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 8.1C -0.6C below average. Rainfall 64.1mm 72.6 of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP currently about 93 mm, GFS says 130-140 is most likely end point. Agree mid-7 outcome for CET looks plausible, will briefly rise to near 9 C over weekend and fall off in stages afterwards. 

[snowray]

2 hours ago, WYorksWeather said:

I think we're getting towards the moment of truth. It's still just about possible that next week is cold enough to get us below the 1961-1990 average, but probably a bit of a long shot.

The ECM 0z from this morning shows the following, for Luton, Pershore and Clitheroe (close analogues to the CET stations since Rothamsted and Stonyhurst aren't available on the meteograms):

  

General consensus seems to be above average over the next few days then average later on (though below average relative to the November average, since we're towards the end of the month). There is some variation, and a major cold spell might still get us there, but the odds seem to be very much against it being of sufficient length and intensity to really do much to the CET overall. My best guess at the moment would be a finish in the mid 7s range.

 

I think that what was required was a blast of cold from the north, something that wasn't out of the ordinary in the second half of November not so long ago, followed by HP over the country with frosts and fog. I have gone for 7c so this scenario would have suited me. Of course late November 2010 was quite exceptional, I have never seen powder snow or such low temps for the time of the year, I usually looked at mid December for real Winter to start. It would seem that we are paying for it now with these mainly mild and wet Novembers ever since.

[Roger J Smith]

It is difficult to visualize from recent years, but November was solo coldest month of nine (extended) winters: 

1782-83 (2.3 1782), 1851-52 (3.1 1851), 1858-59 (4.3 1858), 1862-63 (3.2 1862), 1871-72 (3.4 1872),

1910-11 (3.2 1910), 1915-16 (2.8 1915), 1919-20 (3.3 1919), 1988-89 (5.0 1988), 

also tied coldest three winters:

1675-76 (4.5 1675 with Dec 1675) and 1923-24 (3.3 1923 with Feb 1924) and 1942-43 (4.9 1942 with Jan 1943)

(so at least a share of 12 winters) ...

It was also second 19 coldest times, 3 of those ties for second:

second to Dec _ 1758-59 (5.7 vs 3.9), 1786-87 (3.3 vs 2.8), 1816-17 (3.9 vs 3.1), 1925-26 (3.6 vs 2.8), 1989-90 (6.0 vs 4.7), 2019-2020 (6.2 vs 5.7)

second to Jan _ 1684-85 (3.0 vs 0.5), 1705-06 (3.9 vs 2.8), 1760-61 (5.7 vs 5.4), 1789-90 (4.6 vs 4.3), 1965-66 (4.5 vs 2.9), 2013-14 (6.1 vs 5.8), 2016-17 (5.5 vs 4.0)

second to Feb _1750-51 (4.0 t Jan, vs 1.5), 1905-06 (4.9 t Dec, vs 3.1), 1993-94 (4.5 vs 3.2)

second to mar _ 1746-47 (3.3 t Jan, vs 2.5), 1795-96 (4.5 vs 4.2), 1868-69 (4.9 vs 3.8), 

 

[WYorksWeather]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

I think that what was required was a blast of cold from the north, something that wasn't out of the ordinary in the second half of November not so long ago, followed by HP over the country with frosts and fog. I have gone for 7c so this scenario would have suited me. Of course late November 2010 was quite exceptional, I have never seen powder snow or such low temps for the time of the year, I usually looked at mid December for real Winter to start. It would seem that we are paying for it now with these mainly mild and wet Novembers ever since.

Yep, these sort of events occur much more rarely. To find out how much more rarely, I did a bit of analysis.

The old data is 1961-1990, new data is 1993-2022. It is filtered for all November days, and CET minima.

The blue dashed line is the 10th percentile - a 'cold' day, and the black line is the median.

If we denote ground frost days to be <4C minima, and air frost days to be <0C minima, we can easily see the difference. Ground frost days have gone from above 50% probability to below, and air frost days, which were still cold but not all that unusual, are now rapidly reaching 10% probability.

We'd expect something like 12 ground frosts and around 4 air frosts using my criteria for the 1993-2022 average. So far, at just over the halfway point in November 2023, we have 4 and 0 respectively, though of course that's not a good measure since the second half of the month is a lot colder than the first, so we'd expect that to start catching up.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 8.0C -0.6C below average. Rainfall 73.7mm 83.5% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

8.3c to the 17th

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average
0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[Metwatch]

Judging by this month's CET thread being more quieter, it does seem to have been a more non-descript / average November. Slightly on the wetter and milder side so far, but next week does look to be a bit drier with high pressure closer by. My EWP guess of 123mm seems to be quite good for now.

CET guess of 6.8C might be a little on the low side now, next few days looks average to slightly milder than average, but next weekend may turn colder. I think the CET finishing somewhere in the mid 7 Celcius as others have mentioned yesterday looks like a good call.

[February1978]

3 hours ago, Metwatch said:

Judging by this month's CET thread being more quieter, it does seem to have been a more non-descript / average November. Slightly on the wetter and milder side so far, but next week does look to be a bit drier with high pressure closer by. My EWP guess of 123mm seems to be quite good for now.

CET guess of 6.8C might be a little on the low side now, next few days looks average to slightly milder than average, but next weekend may turn colder. I think the CET finishing somewhere in the mid 7 Celcius as others have mentioned yesterday looks like a good call.

I have a very similar guess (6.8 & 132), would agree.....but, if verified, GFS 12z would change things....!

[Summer Sun]

8.5c to the 18th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[reef]

If we were to finish on that 8.5C, Autumn 2023 would be 12.5C and the 2nd warmest on record behind 2006 (12.6C).

November only needs to finish on 6.6C for it to be in the top 5 (11.9C).

[Roger J Smith]

CET would take quite a tumble near end of November if guidance is correct, likely to stay in 8s for a few more days but would be falling at a rate of about 0.3 per day towards end. Low 7 range is probably favoured at present.

EWP at around 108 mm, GFS dry to end of Nov and adds only about 5 mm to it; if correct, will make for a close finish to contest as Bobd29, Summer Shower, Leo 97t and Weather Observer would all score well and current leader snowray, as well as Reef, would be adding only a little to their totals. I often post a preliminary scoring table, but it appears to be a photo finish where several of current top seven would win or finish second if they hit their forecast closest or top three scores, although Reef and JeffC are positioned too close to snowray to pass in any outcome and Summer Shower at 94.0 appears to be unable to gain on several higher forecasts now; instead of a preliminary table, I will post top scores after October and forecasts for Nov without any new scoring suggestions; the table of forecasts on page three shows 55 forecasts so scoring levels will be about 0.18 apart and at a finish of around 113 mm, only two or three low forecasts would join the higher set above 150 in being low scores, snowray probably needs to see a total closer to 130 mm to see off the challengers but without working it out in detail it looks like snowray could be safe in any event once a few additional raindrops hit the EWP gauge. Bobd29 had the only realistic chance of overtaking.

(Nov 25 edit _ I have posted preliminary scoring now for 130.1 mm as we close in on an actual outcome.)

(Dec 2 _ tracker ended at 127.7 for NOV, will wait for table value 5 Dec to edit again)

___________________________

 

Current EWP contest scores and Nov forecasts (scores now adjusted)

 

Rank (prev) _ FORECASTER ________ n __ TOTAL PTS ___ AVG ERROR (rank)__ Nov forecast, score (rank)

_01 __ 01 ___ snowray _____________12 ___ 84.56 ________ 28.42 ( 5 ) _ ( 6 ) ____157.0 ___ 5.14 (28)

_02 __ 03 ___ bobd29 ______________12 ___ 79.29 ________ 27.85 ( 3 ) _ (t4) ____ 103.6 ___ 5.30 (27)

_03 __ 08 ___ February1978 ________12 ___ 79.24 ________ 28.80 ( 6 ) _ (13) ___ 132.0 ___ 9.64 ( 3 )

_04 __ 02 ___ Reef _________________ 12 ___ 78.81 ________ 29.43 ( 8 ) _ ( 3 ) ____172.0 ___ 2.80 (41)

_05 __ 06 ___ Leo97t _______________12 ___ 78.47 ________ 29.22 (10) _ (11) ____120.0 ___ 7.74 (14) _ (2nd ent)

_06 __ 07 ___ Weather Observer ___12 ___ 78.18 ________ 29.29 (11) _ (12) ___ 121.0 ___ 8.20 (11)

_07 __ 05 ___ Jeff C _________________12 ___ 77.79 ________ 29.06 ( 7 ) _ (10) ____145.0 ___ 6.66 (20) (2nd ent)

_08 __ 09 ___ Summer Shower_____ 11 ___ 75.85 ________ 27.02* ( 1 )__( 1 ) ___ 94.0 ____3.46 (37)

_09 __ 08 ___ virtualsphere ________ 12 ___ 75.83 ________ 28.22 ( 4 )_ ( 7 ) ____149.0 ___ 6.22 (22) 

_10 __ 14 ___ J 10 ___________________12 ___ 74.54 ________ 29.17 ( 9 ) _ (14)____130.0 ___10.00 ( 1 )

_11 __ 13 ___ DR(S)NO _____________ 12 ___ 71.83 ________ 31.90 (16) _ (18) ___ 117.1 ___ 7.12 (17)

_12 __ 19 ___ Midlands Ice Age ____ 12 ___ 70.94 ________ 33.39 (19) _ (22) ____134.9 ___ 9.28 ( 5 )

_13 __ 11 ___ jonboy _______________12 ___ 70.35 ________ 32.82 (17) _ (17) ____162.0 ___ 4.42 (32)

_14 __ 10 ___ Emmett Garland _____12 ___ 69.13 ________ 31.58 (14) _ ( 8 ) ____186.0 ___ 1.20 (49) 

_15 __ 16 ___prolongedSnowLover _12 ___ 69.08 ________ 29.90 (13) _ ( 9 ) ____103.0 ___ 4.92 (29)

_16 __ 20 ___ seaside60 ____________12 ___ 68.50 ________ 35.10 (24) _ (30) ____ 120.0 ___ 7.24 (16) _(4th ent, 1d late)

_17 __ 12 ___ Polar Gael ____________12 ___ 66.68 ________ 34.68 (22) _ (16) ____ 75.2 ___ 1.60 (47)

_18 __ 18 ___ summer18 ___________ 12 ___ 66.34 ________ 31.75 (15) _ (15) ___ 101.0 ___ 4.54 (31)

_19 __ 17 ___ Mulzy ________________ 12 ___ 66.43 ________ 34.67 (21) _ (20) ____ 97.0 ____ 3.72 (36) _(2nd ent)

_20 __ 15 ___ Roger J Smith _________12 ___ 66.25 ________ 29.54 (12) _ ( 2 ) ____182.5 ___ 1.86 (46)

_21 __ 21 ___ Stationary Front _____ 12 ___ 65.91 ________ 33.23 (18) _ (19) ____112.0 ___ 6.40 (21)

_23 __ 22 ___ dancerwithwings _____12 ___ 62.94 ________ 36.90 (33) _ (28) ____ 97.0 ___ 3.82 (35)

_22 __ 23 ___ Feb1991Blizzard _____ 12 ___ 61.42 ________ 35.83 (28) _ (t23) ____159.0 ___ 4.78 (30)

_24 __ 24 ___ Wold Topper _________ 12 ___ 60.87 ________ 36.83 (32) _ (31) ____ 103.7 ___ 5.49 (26)

_25 __ 27 ___ Mr Maunder __________12 ___ 59.42 ________ 36.82 (31) _ (32) ____111.0 ___ 6.04 (23)

_26 __ 30 ___ Godber 1 _____________12 ___ 58.20 ________ 36.05 (29) _ (38) ____126.0 ___ 9.46 (4)

_27 __ 32 ___ rwtwm _______________ 12 ___ 57.57 ________ 34.75 (23) _ (35) ____124.0 ___ 8.92 ( 7 )

_28 __ 26 ___ daniel* _______________ 12 ___ 56.24 ________ 42.23 (46) _ (42) ____ 80.0 ____ 2.20 (44)

_29 __ 33 ___ The PIT _______________12 ___ 55.86 ________ 39.97 (44) _ (46) ____120.0 ___ 7.64 (15) _(3rd ent)

_30 __ 25 ___ I Remember Atl252 ___11 ___ 55.49 ________ 39.08*(40) _ (29) ___188.0 ___ 1.00 (50)

_31 __ 31 ___ summer8906 __________8 ___ 54.68 ________ 27.43*( 2 ) _  (t4) ___110.0 ___ 5.86 (24)

_32 __ 36 ___ davehsug _____________12 ___ 52.81 ________ 38.67 (39) _ (43) ____124.0 ___ 7.26 (9)  (2nd ent, 1d late)

_33 __ 28 ___ Don __________________ 12 ___ 52.71 ________ 39.92 (43) _ (t33) ____185.0 ___ 1.46 (48)

_34 __ 29 ___ Weather26 ___________ 11 ___ 52.41 ________ 37.25*(34) _ (t23) ___ 84.0 ____ 2.40 (43)

_35 __ 38 ___ noname_weather_____11 ___ 50.37 ________ 36.08*(30) _(t33) ____121.0 ___ 8.10 (12) _ (2nd ent) 

_36 __ 34 ___ summer blizzard _____ 12 ___ 49.45 ________ 39.80 (41) _ (41) ____ 98.0 ___ 4.08 (34) (2nd ent)

_37 __ 37 ___ Methuselah ___________12 ___ 48.05 ________ 40.92 (45) _ (45) ___ 107.0 ___ 5.68 (25)

_38 __ 43 ___ stewfox ________________ 8 ___ 46.59 ________ 35.12*(25) _ (32) ___ 135.0 ___ 9.10 ( 6 )

_39 __ 35 ___ shillitocettwo _________12 ___ 45.10 ________ 49.32 (55) _ (51) ____ 44.0 ___ 0.00 (55)

_40 __ 42 ___ Frigid _________________ 12 ___ 46.10 ________ 44.42 (50) _ (54) ____120.0 ___ 6.58 (13)

_41 __ 40 ___ SteveB ________________12 ___ 44.62 ________ 44.21 (49) _ (47) ____ 98.0 ___ 4.18 (33)

_42 __ 45 ___ Metwatch _____________11 ___ 44.85 ________ 42.72*(47) _(50) ____123.0 ___ 8.38 (10) 

_43 __ 46 ___ Moorlander ___________12 ___ 44.18 ________ 43.54 (48) _ (53) ____ 130.0 ___ 9.90 (2) _ (2nd ent)

_44 __ 39 ___ Mapantz _______________ 8 ___ 42.18 ________ 35.38*(26) _ (26) ____ no fcst

_45 __ 41 ___ Neil N _________________11 ___ 41.75 ________ 45.57*(52) _ (49) ___ 90.0 ___ 3.10 (39)

_46 __ 44 ___ syed2878 _____________ 12 ___ 41.12 ________ 45.15 (51) _ (48) ____ 90.0 ___ 2.90 (41) (3rd ent)

_47 __ 49 ___ chilly milly _____________12 ___34.34 ________ 51.94 (56) _ (56) _____ 79.0 ___ 2.00 (45)

_48 __ 47 ___ DiagonalRedLine ______ 6 ___ 33.52 ________ 35.80*(27) _ (25) ____ no fcst

_49 __ 53 ___ catbrainz _______________8 ___33.28 ________ 39.88*(42) _ (44) ____144.0 ___ 6.94 (18) 

_50 __ 48 ___ Norrance ______________ 8 ___ 32.65 ________ 37.50*(35) _ (37) ____ no fcst

_51 __ 50 ___ freeze _________________ 5 ___ 31.95 ________ 33.56*(20) _ (21) ____ no fcst 

_52 __ 51 ___ B87 ____________________7 ___ 30.21 ________ 38.54*(38) _ (36) ____ 90.0 ___ 3.00 (40) _(2nd ent) 

_53 __ 52 ___ SLEETY ________________ 7 ___ 27.10 ________ 38.14*(37) _ (40) ____ no fcst 

_54 __ 54 ___ Earthshine ____________10 ___ 26.69 ________ 49.18*(54) _ (55) ____ 70.0 ___ 0.60 (52)

_55 __ 55 ___ Cymro _________________ 4 ___ 26.11 ________ 36.88 (---) _  (---) ____ no fcst

_56 __ 56 ___ sunny_vale ____________ 9 ___ 26.01 _________ 46.88 (53) _ (52) ____ 87.0 ___ 2.60 (42)

_57 __ 57 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather _____ 5 ___ 19.01 ________ 37.60*(36) _ (39) ____ no fcst

_58 __ 58 ___ Coventry Weather _____ 2 ____19.00 _________ 8.25 (---) _ (---) ____ no fcst 

_59 __ 59 ___ Blast From the Past ____ 4 ___ 18.63 _________44.13 (---) _ (---) ____ no fcst

_60 __ 60 ___ Somerset Girl ___________4 ___ 17.95 _________49.03 (---) _ (---) ____ 60.0 ___ 0.20 (54)

_61 __ 61 ___ Thundery Wintry Showers __ 4 ___ 17.04 ________ 32.58 (---) _ (---) ____ no fcst

_62 __t66___ Alexis J 9 _______________ 2 ____16.76 _________ 8.65 (---) _ (---) _____145.0 ___ 6.76 (19) 

_63 __ 72 ___ mazelike ________________3 ____16.71 ________ 33.70 (---) _ (---) ____137.0 ___ 8.56 ( 8 ) __9 lev

_64 __ 62 ___ Weather Enthusiast91 __2 ___ 15.86 ________ 21.25 ( ---) _ (---) ____ no fcst

_67 __ 65 ___ john88b ________________ 3 ___ 11.92 ________ 31.40 ( --- ) _ (---) ___ 67.0 ___ 0.40 (53)

_74 __ 77 ___ WYorksWeather _________2 ____ 7.68 ________ 63.65 (---) _ (---) ____190.0 ___ 0.80 (51)

 

(only Nov entrants are shown after 62nd place in annual contest, table will later include all entrants for contest year) 

(only entrants with 5-9 entries have a ranked adjusted average error)

=========================

 (7.6) _(9.7) __ Consensus _____________ 12 ___ 76.40 _______ 31.58 (14.0) (17.9) __120.0 ___ 7.84 (13)

 (9.2) _(5.4) __ 1981-2010 average _____12 ___ 75.48 _______ 29.06 ( 7.1) _( 6.9) __100.4 ___ 4.50 (31.2)

 (10.7) (10.6) __1991-2020 average ____12 ___ 72.40 _______ 29.78 (12.7) _( 9.7) __106.1 ___ 5.62 (25.3)

(12.1)(11.7) _ 1993-2022 average _____ 12 ___ 70.92 _______ 30.50 (13.3) _(11.1) __104.7 ___ 5.55 (25.7)

___________________________

(EWP forecasts in order)

 

1-2 130_J 10, Moor ... 3 132_Feb78 ... 4 126_godb ... 5 134.9_mia ... 6 135_stew ... 7-9 124_rwtwm, dave^ ... 8 (9) 137_maze ... 10 123_met ... 

11-12 121_WxOb, non ...  13-16 120_Frig, leo, PIT, sea60^ ... 17 117.1_DR(S) ... 18 144_cat ... 19-20 145_Al-J9, Jeff ...

21 112_SF ... 22 149_virt ... 23 111_MrM ... 24 110_sum8906 ... 25 107_meth ...

(25.3) 106.1_91-20 ... (25.7) 104.7_93-22 ... 26 103.7_WT ... 27 103.6 _bobd29 ... 28 157_snow ... 29 103_pSL ... 30 159_Feb91 ..

31 101_sum18 ... 31.2 100.4_81-10 ... 32 162_jon ... 33-34 98_Steve, sb ... 35-36 97_dww, mul ... 37 94_sumsh ... (37.1) 93.8_alldata ...

38-40 90_NN, B87, syed... 41 172_Reef ... 42 87_sv ... 43 84_wx26 ... 44 80_dan ... 45  79_cm ... 46 182.5_RJS ...

47 75.2_PG ... 48 185_Don ...  49 186_EG ... 50 188_I rem ...  51 190_WYorks ... 52 70_earth ... 53 67_john ... 54 60_sg ... 55 44_shil

 

 

Edited December 3, 2023 by Roger J Smith
added Nov scoring est

[gaia rules]

"The highest annual mean CET ever recorded was 11.15, which is 1.68 higher than normal. To beat this record the
anomaly must be higher than 2.04 for the remainder of this year."

No chance now! CET is sliding down and down