Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[Harsh Climate]

ECM doesn't look bad for snow Tuesday as well

Decent wind direction.

Bit of strength to it and colder 500s (towards east) should help it spread east

Edited January 12 by Harsh Climate

[Mark Bayley]

Yeah, ECM tally's with the BBC forecast. Suggests accumulations to the west of the pennies, one to watch 

 

FWIW - whilst i wouldn't expect significant accumulations to the east, i reckon the ECM is probably underdoing what makes it over. 

 

Edited January 12 by Mark Bayley

[Harsh Climate]

7 minutes ago, Mark Bayley said:

Yeah, ECM tally's with the BBC forecast. Suggests accumulations to the west of the pennies, one to watch 

 

FWIW - whilst i wouldn't expect significant accumulations to the east, i reckon the ECM is probably underdoing what makes it over. 

 

UKMO has much more extensive precipitation, ECM probably underplaying the extent of it.

On face value if the models were to be right now, this looks very much like a West Leeds event with places like Skipton, Otley, Halifax, perhaps Bradford having quite a nice surprise with a sharp cut off of precipitation once ya reach Headingly/ Leeds City centre.. 

Ovcoarse too early to name exact area to receive the snow tuesday, but a bit of luck and we could have a large part of West, South and North Yorkshire receiving the snow than just more western areas.

 

[Empire Of Snow]

Proper meltdown in the mod thread with some existential questions around. 

[The PIT]

Well we have the first air frost of the month. That tally will rise next week so it's going to be interesting when it warms up whether it will be milder enough to prevent a below average month.

[Mark Bayley]

4 hours ago, Harsh Climate said:

UKMO has much more extensive precipitation, ECM probably underplaying the extent of it.

On face value if the models were to be right now, this looks very much like a West Leeds event with places like Skipton, Otley, Halifax, perhaps Bradford having quite a nice surprise with a sharp cut off of precipitation once ya reach Headingly/ Leeds City centre.. 

Ovcoarse too early to name exact area to receive the snow tuesday, but a bit of luck and we could have a large part of West, South and North Yorkshire receiving the snow than just more western areas.

 

Agreed, the GFS 18z makes a bit more of it for eastern areas. Probably only a dusting, but increasing to a CM or two the further north and west you are. Hopefully the models make more of it over the weekend, though in reality it will be down to lamppost watching on the day (subject to timing!)

If anyone gets bored of the models I've found the Metoffice warning archive quite interesting (how sad ) . Since 2013 we've had 462 yellow warnings for snow and 30 amber. January 2013 seemingly a good month for snow. Most of our Reds have been for rain... Lets see if Feb can deliver..

https://library.metoffice.gov.uk/Portal/Default/en-GB/Search/SimpleSearch

 

Edited January 12 by Mark Bayley

[cheese]

2 hours ago, Mark Bayley said:

Agreed, the GFS 18z makes a bit more of it for eastern areas. Probably only a dusting, but increasing to a CM or two the further north and west you are. Hopefully the models make more of it over the weekend, though in reality it will be down to lamppost watching on the day (subject to timing!)

If anyone gets bored of the models I've found the Metoffice warning archive quite interesting (how sad ) . Since 2013 we've had 462 yellow warnings for snow and 30 amber. January 2013 seemingly a good month for snow. Most of our Reds have been for rain... Lets see if Feb can deliver..

https://library.metoffice.gov.uk/Portal/Default/en-GB/Search/SimpleSearch

 

January 2013 was indeed a great month for snow, despite the lack of notable cold. The snowfall on the night of the 25th/26th was particularly good - we ended up with a snow depth of around 30cm, rivaling December 2010. 
 

Winter 2012/13 was overall a very snowy winter with multiple notable snowfalls from January to March. Snow drifts lasted until April (this picture was taken near Harewood on 2 April). 
 

 

Edited January 13 by cheese

[adrianh]

Crisis in the main thread this morning. I'm sure some are on a wind up too - this isnt a 'toppler' setup (theres no high toppling onto us) and a genuinely cold 5 days are ahead.

Its a shame theres no mass snow event on the cards but id be surprised if most of us didn't at least get a covering.

[Robin2012]

1 minute ago, adrianh said:

Crisis in the main thread this morning. I'm sure some are on a wind up too - this isnt a 'toppler' setup (theres no high toppling onto us) and a genuinely cold 5 days are ahead.

Its a shame theres no mass snow event on the cards but id be surprised if most of us didn't at least get a covering.

Yep still a fair chance of a few surprises popping up in our region before next weekend, happened before so maybe

I thought the constant trolling from the SAD thread crew was laughable but the constant desperate need to be ‘right’ and the ‘I told you I told you’ posts from the same people over in mod thread is tiresome to say the least 

Good old ignore list eh!!

[smhouston]

Must admit I'm quite despondent this morning. NW just don't deliver for me snow wise usually so not expecting anything at all. Pretty annoying as I was quite confident that low to the NE would shift a bit to give us a N/NE and thus plenty of activity from north sea

 

I'm getting to the age now where I want it to snow otherwise I'd rather get to the spring warmth

 

[Aiden2012]

I just can’t believe it, chasing a cold spell which felt like eternity and zonal weather comes and takes it away within days… winter weather is just so tiring, bring on warm weather and thunderstorms

[Mark Bayley]

It is hard to not be somewhat despondent. The models now seem to agree on a breakdown from next weekend (sadly not a snowy one), though no guarantee it will be massively above average (e.g. GFS 6z). Frustratingly whether mild or average, it looks turn wetter again, which I am sure many areas could do without!

Before then there remains chances of snow early next week, with the UKMO looking decent for western areas of the region (a few CMS of snow, but potentially a dusting elsewhere). Lets see how it evolves - other models keep the precipitation mostly to the west or don't bring it at all!  

Whilst the models might look dreadful as we heads towards February, remember how quickly that can change. Lets hope that the next bout of blocking, should there be one (as per background drivers suggesting), brings winds from a more northern easterly / easterly direction, and the trough sinks fully into Europe. That was always the challenge with this spell.

[The PIT]

UKMO showing a chance of some snow. Sadly I got a loan car with a worn clutch so don't want any Snow at the moment.

Otherwise enjoying the UFO in the sky and hopefully they'll be a few more UFO's this coming week.

[Aiden2012]

10 minutes ago, The PIT said:

UKMO showing a chance of some snow. Sadly I got a loan car with a worn clutch so don't want any Snow at the moment.

Otherwise enjoying the UFO in the sky and hopefully they'll be a few more UFO's this coming week.

Oh dear, can’t you return it. ?

[winterof79]

"Risk of some disruptive snow on Tuesday, before returning to more cold sunshine Wednesday."

[Empire Of Snow]

5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

"Risk of some disruptive snow on Tuesday, before returning to more cold sunshine Wednesday."

Returning to cold sunshine? When did we have cold sunshine? Today we had 17min of sunshine and started raining again. All the previous days we had drizzle with 4-5c max temps. Now it's full cloud cover, I expect pretty much the same tomorrow and Monday. 

Last day of cold sunshine I remember it was early December. Spot on from METO. Back To The Future IV.

[The PIT]

GFS has Tuesdays low over Scotland with it's Snow. Waiting for the latest UKV too see  what that thinks. An unforecast rather mild day today but turned cold as soon as the UFO hid behind a cloud. Some big temperature swings during the day.

Hopefully more of the strange UFO in the sky this week.

[The PIT]

UKV still has it on this run.

 

[Aiden2012]

7 minutes ago, The PIT said:

UKV still has it on this run.

 

Any pics or gif ? 

[The PIT]

13 minutes ago, Aiden2012 said:

Any pics or gif ? 

 

[Love Snow]

Oh dear  we ain’t going to hear the end of it on the  news if the snow charts are right for the south this morning  

[Kasim Awan]

A stagnant WNW flow on the rear of the trough may produce a continuous feed of Irish sea moisture into the main convective zone producing the risk of persistent hill snow and mixed phase precipitation to lower levels during Tuesday afternoon and into the early hours of Monday.  As a result 10-15cm of snowfall is possible above around 150m where this forms. This likely somewhere between Harrogate and the North York Moors, therefore this is no guarantee of significant snowfall due to the uncertainty around the trough placement.  Lower levels will see mixed precipitation with the possibility of more optimal snow conditions to around 50m asl establishing on the back edge of the system which could produce 1-3cm locally as the front moves South during Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday. Areas above 200m asl may see as much as 3-8cm as the trough progresses into a frontal system.

Edited January 14 by Kasim Awan

[Harsh Climate]

17 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

A stagnant WNW flow on the rear of the trough may produce a continuous feed of Irish sea moisture into the main convective zone producing the risk of persistent hill snow and mixed phase precipitation to lower levels during Tuesday afternoon and into the early hours of Monday.  As a result 10-15cm of snowfall is possible above around 150m where this forms. This likely somewhere between Harrogate and the North York Moors, therefore this is no guarantee of significant snowfall due to the uncertainty around the trough placement.  Lower levels will see mixed precipitation with the possibility of more optimal snow conditions to around 50m asl establishing on the back edge of the system which could produce 1-3cm locally as the front moves South during Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday. Areas above 200m asl may see as much as 3-8cm as the trough progresses into a frontal system.

Excellent post Kasim, looks about right.

I think through Tuesday evening - Wednesday morning as the lower 850s come back down the snow level should drop and some low lying areas could get some decent accumulations, where showers allign. Going to do a post later on my thoughts/predictions.

[cowdog]

Warnings issued for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Only covers the Pennines as expected, but that could well change.

 

Edited January 14 by cowdog

[Love Snow]

Just in the warning area should be a interesting week