2024 Tornado Season

[WeatherArc]

Decided to stay up for 00z HRRR, wow.

Too put it bluntly if this run verifies a significant outbreak of strong-violent long track tornadoes would occur. 

Multiple discrete supercells firing off the dryline at 00z in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, tracking well into the night while remaining relatively discrete, additional development at around 9pm local time in central Oklahoma.

I also think central/southern Oklahoma should be on high alert for this, considering the level of forcing inbound at 300mb, the sharp dryline and the HRRRs biases despite what the 00z shows i am fairly confident in dryline convection from Fairview to Lawton in central Oklahoma.

Soundings picked from all over the warm sector in southern Kansas and Oklahoma. Timing of soundings varies between 00z and 03z.

Am going to try to sleep for as long as i can now, likely not to get much tomorrow night.

Its also worth noting the csu is showing very high probs for Wednesday night as well.

[Ben Sainsbury]

 WeatherArc I've seen a case before actually, where despite the cap building back in, if you've got outrageous kinematics within the low-levels that can still bust through the capping and allow for tornadogenesis to occur. I can't remember the exact case but I remember Convective Chronicles doing a video on it. 

Mention in the SPC this morning of consideration for a tornado-driven high risk, but some questions still remain on the storm-mode. That saying this means the environment IS worthy of a high risk. Could be a bad day for Oklahoma, eeek!

[The Tall Weatherman]

This 6z HRRR says everything you need to know. An extraordinarily favourable kinematic and unstable environment should set the scene later in Oklahoma. Curvature in the hodograph that large in a perfect setup usually means High risks.

[Ben Sainsbury]

To add to my previous comment it may have been huge CAPE within the lowest 1km or something instead below the capping inversion, but I'll have to find the video.

[WeatherArc]

SPC keeps D1 moderate, likely waiting for first weather balloon data to come in from launches this morning before making the decision to go high.

Cant get anymore high-end wording than this though,

..THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Multiple intense, long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely

. ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough is evident in water vapor imagery this evening within the Great Basin. This feature will continue eastward into the Four Corners by early this morning. An initial speed max is expected to eject into western Kansas. By late afternoon into the evening, another speed max will approach western Oklahoma. Deep low-level moisture is already being observed in the BRO 00Z sounding. Surface observations also show low 70s dewpoint as far north as the DFW Metroplex this evening. As the trough approaches, this moisture should stream northward. The overall synoptic setup indicates a severe weather outbreak occurring this afternoon and extending into the evening and parts of the overnight period. Multiple intense, long-track tornadoes are expected, especially in parts of southern Kansas into Oklahoma. Very-large hail of up 2-4 inches can also be expected with intense supercells. Severe gusts may initially be isolated, but storm coverage should increase with time as well as the mode becoming more linear. As this occurs, severe gusts, some up to 80 mph, will become more common. ...Oklahoma into southern Kansas... Intense storms are expected across these areas by late afternoon. Storm coverage is likely to initially be greatest in south-central Kansas given the greater and earlier upper-level forcing. Isolated storms will still be possible along the dryline in western Oklahoma as strong heating in the Texas Panhandle should support dryline circulations that should at least locally erode inhibition. By the evening, greater forcing for ascent will arrive in western Oklahoma. Flow aloft will be nearly perpendicular to the dryline, which will favor a discrete storm mode. Even as the weak Pacific front overtakes the dryline, low-level forcing is not expected to be strong enough to promote substantial upscale growth, especially when coupled with continued strong shear across the boundary. Overall, there appears to be prolonged opportunity for discrete storms to form across western Oklahoma into parts of southern Kansas. While the environment during the afternoon will certainly support intense, long-track tornadoes, concern only grows by early evening. Discrete storms are expected to move eastward into an intensifying low-level jet core in central and eastern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. Surface-based activity will likely persist into the evening and even parts of the overnight, given continued influx of moisture and weak capping. The time frame of greatest concern for intense tornadoes is from 03-06Z across central into northeast Oklahoma.

This is a high-end environment. An upgrade to a tornado-driven High Risk was considered. There remains some lingering uncertainty with regard to the number of intense tornadoes that will occur. An increase in tornado probabilities will certainly be warranted should confidence in coverage and preferred corridors increase.

...Western Kansas into Nebraska...Iowa...Missouri... Convection will likely initiate in western Kansas into southwest Nebraska earlier than elsewhere given the timing of the upper-level forcing. Furthermore, a linear mode should more quickly become established due to the deep layer shear being oriented much more parallel to the initiating boundary than farther south. Buoyancy will generally decrease with northward extent. That being said, moisture will continue to push northward through the day and into the evening. Mid 60s F dewpoints could reach southeast Nebraska. Strong deep-layer and low-level shear will promote an organized line of convection capable of wind damage and QLCS tornadoes (some potentially strong). There is some potential for discrete storms to form ahead of the anticipated line. These storms would pose a greater threat for significant tornadoes. Large to very large hail will likely be more likely in western and central Kansas and coverage of very large hail will be conditional on how long a discrete mode is maintained

. ...South Dakota... Richer low-level moisture (upper 50s to perhaps near 60 F dewpoints) will reach portions of central into northwest South Dakota. A narrow zone of instability is expected to develop by the afternoon between the cold and warm front. Large hail and severe gusts will be the main threats, but low-level shear will be sufficient for a tornado or two. ...Edwards Plateau into Texas Rolling Plains... Storm coverage this far south should generally be much more isolated on account of weak and nebulous forcing. However, a strong enough dryline circulation could initiate convection within a strongly unstable and sheared environment. Should storms form, large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible.

06z HRRR has multiple discrete supercells in a very high end environment. Oklahoma and southern Kansas need to be on the highest alert today

 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

 WeatherArc looks like the DFW metroplex could well be affected. Although for all the various reasons ,I hope not!

[Eagle Eye]

Looks like they're going high risk. Emily Sutton said the same thing. 

 

[WeatherArc]

 Eagle Eye I would agree, lots of professional mets are saying it. My guess is that its being sent round on nwschat ahead of the upgrade in an hour.

 

Edited May 6 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

If anyone wants to listen into watches and warnings live i've found this website that allows you to listen into the NOAA weather radio live.

NOAA Weather Radio Online: Listen to local channels | weatherUSA

WWW.WEATHERUSA.NET

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Thank god, the model output seems consistent enough for discrete/semi-discrete long-lived supercells with potential for strong to violent long-track tornadoes.

[Eagle Eye]

Oklahoma City area as well and not far off Wichita...

[WeatherArc]

There we go

 

[WeatherArc]

Noaa weather radio mentioning a significant severe outbreak, strong long lived tornadoes, and that emergency management should be prepared.

[weatherobsuk]

SPC has upgraded today to a HIGH RISK in the areas of Wichita, Wichita Falls, Enid, Elk City, Tulsa, and Oklahoma City. The last HIGH RISK area was last issued on the 31 March 2023.

NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV

 

Edited May 6 by weatherobsuk

[WeatherArc]

The SPC has officially upgraded to a high risk, a significant severe weather outbreak will take place tonight.

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN

...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS..

. ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe weather with multiple strong, long-tracked tornadoes, as well as very large hail and severe thunderstorm gusts, is expected over parts of the south-central Plains from this afternoon through evening.

...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a strong synoptic-scale trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery from the northern Rockies, through a low over northeastern UT, then southward to the international border near the AZ/NM line. The main 500-mb low should pivot northeastward toward the Black Hills and deepen by 00Z, with trough northwestward over central MT and southward across eastern parts of CO/NM. A basal shortwave trough -- now from central CO to the Four Corners area -- should swing northeastward then northward, reaching southern SD, western NE and eastern CO by 00Z. This perturbation then should shift northeastward, possibly merging with convectively generated vorticity over NE and SD this evening and tonight, and reaching eastern SD, southwestern MN and IA by 12Z. A weaker, but still influential perturbation -- now over parts of southern NV/northern AZ -- should make a net eastward shift to parts of northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle by 00Z, reaching southern KS and northern OK by 12Z. Associated substantial height falls and DCVA should remain over and north of the Red River Valley through this evening. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure was analyzed on the 11Z chart over eastern WY, with Pacific cold front across eastern CO and northeastern/north-central NM. A dryline extended from the front over southeastern CO to eastern NM and the TX Trans-Pecos region, and should mix eastward to southwestern KS, eastern OK/TX Panhandles, and west-central/southwest TX by late afternoon. The cold front should overtake the dryline across the central Plains through the afternoon, then over OK overnight. A developing/synoptic warm-frontal zone was apparent from southeastern WY across central KS to southern MO, and should move northeastward to the lower/mid Missouri Valley through the period. The southern warm front -- demarcating the northern rim of a richly moist Gulf airmass from outflow-modified air, was drawn near the Red River from the Arklatex to the southeastern TX Panhandle. This boundary will shift northward through OK and much of KS today while becoming diffuse, and possibly catching up to the northern warm front. .

..OK, Southern KS, Red River region... Thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon along and ahead of the dryline, near the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK line or 100W longitude into southern KS, then strengthen quickly to severe levels as they move eastward. Given the already very favorable parameter space by late afternoon, and increasingly so into early/mid evening, the concern is high for at least a few cyclic, tornadic supercells producing multiple significant tornadoes along potentially long paths. The threat for such tornadoes, as well as very large/destructive hail, will be maintained well into the late evening, and may even increase as hodographs further enlarge beneath the LLJ. Some uncertainty lingers as to how many such supercells will track across the outlook area, but given the unusually favorable environment and increasing confidence, a "high risk" outlook is warranted for areas between roughly the I-40 corridor in OK and the US-54/500 corridor in southern KS. Compared to farther north in KS, the environment will feature slightly stronger CINH, very rich low-level moisture (dewpoints commonly upper 60s to low 70s F), lack of frontal forcing (mainly dryline instead), and more orthogonal mean-wind/deep-shear vectors relative to the boundary. The 12Z FWD sounding sampled the richly moist and deep boundary layer that will be shifting northward across OK today, with mean mixing ratio of 15 g/kg. As low clouds erode in the moist sector from west-east, diabatic heating will boost MLCAPE into the 2500-4000 J/kg range over western/central OK and southern/ central KS, and contribute to greater potential for discrete supercells to develop and last a few hours before potential major upscale evolution to lines or clusters this evening. Hodographs will be favorable for tornadoes soon after initiation, and enlarge further ahead of the activity with time. Effective SRH commonly around 200-300 J/kg is expected late this afternoon and 300-500 J/kg after 00Z, amidst strengthening LLJ and deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes reaching 45-60 kt). Effective-layer STP in the 5-12 range may be realized for a few hours this evening across parts of OK and southern KS. Stronger MLCINH and weaker large-scale support will contribute to lesser storm coverage with southward extent over southern OK, though significant tornadoes and damaging hail may be possible from any that form. The corridor of favorable buoyancy will enlarge eastward this evening with continued moisture transport/advection, helping to maintain surface-based effective-inflow parcels well eastward into the Ozarks and vicinity to maintain eventual upscale growth, possibly linking with the southern part of QLCS activity sweeping across the Missouri Valley region.

...Central Plains... Thunderstorms should develop as early as midday to early afternoon over portions of western KS and southwestern NE, where CINH will be weakest, as the southern part of the front overtakes the dryline and impinges on a rapidly destabilizing/moistening sector to the east. Initial supercell mode is possible, with tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail and damaging gusts all possible. With time this afternoon into evening, a more quasi-linear storm mode may evolve as the influence of frontal forcing increases, versus some component of flow across the boundary. As that occurs, tornadoes still will be possible, and the hail threat will transition to severe wind with eastward extent. Some significant (near 75 mph or higher) gusts will be possible as the momentum of stronger flow aloft gets transported to the surface, with increasing forced ascent along the leading edge of the complex. 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread a northward-narrowing sector across much of KS and NE today, contributing to peak/preconvective MLCAPE increasing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range, as deep shear strengthens, and hodographs extend, while maintaining favorable curvature.

...Northern Plains... From central NE northwestward, the prefrontal corridor of favorable moisture and diurnal destabilization will become quite narrow. Nonetheless, it should support scattered thunderstorms in northward- shifting plume, curving from the western Dakotas (and perhaps parts of extreme northeastern WY and southeastern MT) southeastward to central NE, and connecting to the northern part of the central Plains severe threat. With strong large-scale lift, cooling aloft, rapidly weakening MLCINH, and robust low-level mass response/shear expected ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough, confidence is growing that an arc of strong-severe thunderstorms will develop, offering large hail, severe gusts and at least marginal tornado potential. Even with 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints and limited time for substantial diabatic heating, the net steepening of low/ middle level lapse rates should support peak MLCAPE near or slightly above 1000 J/kg. Deep shear may not be particularly intense in a regime of strongly difluent flow aloft, but still should be adequate for supercell potential given large lowest-km hodographs possible, and effective SRH in the 150-300 J/kg range. Severe potential should diminish after about 00Z.

...West-central/southwest TX... Isolated thunderstorms are possible in mid/late afternoon along/ ahead of the dryline over northwest to southwest TX. Although large-scale/mid-upper forcing will be negligible, any pockets of relatively persistent/maximized low-level lift associated with solenoidal processes on the dryline may persist enough to initiate convection. Mid/upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints and steep low/middle-level lapse rates will contribute to 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE amidst enough deep shear for supercells. A conditional significant-hail and marginal tornado threat exists with sustained supercell(s) -- if any can form. Coverage concerns preclude more than marginal categorical outlook at this time.

 

[Sparkiee storm]

Wow, now they have high confidence of it taking place, very concerning. Hopefully these potentially violent tornado's stay over unpopulated land.

[WeatherArc]

Look at all that fog in Oklahoma and Kansas, many cases of fog being reported the morning before significant weather events in the plains.

Satellite loop shows its starting to burn off as surface heating begins, latest HRRR trends have taken instability from 3,500 to 4,500 in some spots.

 

[WeatherArc]

 

[WeatherArc]

Yikes, the swiss has 3 discrete cells going through Enid, Edmond and Moore. Lets hope this one doesn't verify.

 

[WeatherArc]

 

[WeatherArc]

Latest satellite shows clearing ongoing over western Oklahoma and Kansas with surface heating ongoing. 18z observed soundings show classic loaded gun with stout cap slowly eroding and continuing moist advection at the low levels. 

[Eagle Eye]

That wording. 

 

Edited May 6 by Eagle Eye

[WeatherArc]

Here's your probs

[WeatherArc]

Current view of conditions in Weatherford, western Oklahoma

 

Edited May 6 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]