Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24

[Gogoslo]

Not sure if we will see a lot  , if any of the white stuff next week but something is definitely brewing out there.  I haven’t been on the sherry’s ( yet ), but you can almost smell it.   Am up in Ellon and it’s absolutely baltic.   Looking forward to see what the next week will bring.  I get a feeling some of you will get absolutely pasted.  Looking forward to the pics.. 

[A Winter's Tale]

2 hours ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

Are we looking at a potential 2009/10 style cold spell here (which we are probably overdue if we don’t count the BFTE in 2018?), or is it looking less sustained than that?

My phone was earlier showing temps in Glasgow of around -12 during next week, but these have since been replaced with around -6/-7.

Popped into the model thread, absolutely nothing of use on display in there…

At the moment it looks like this cold spell will be closer to Dec 2022 and Feb 2021 than  2009/10. The models are showing a week long cold spell which is a decent length but obviously not as impressive as the two week+ spells in 2010. Since then there haven’t been too many cold spells longer than a week. Here’s a list of spells with 7+ consecutive days of 5c or lower maxima at Glasgow airport: Jan 2011 (7), Jan-Feb 2012 (9), Nov-Dec 2012 (9), Jan 2013 (14), Mar 2013 (8), Jan 2015 (7), Jan-Feb 2015 (7), Jan 2016 (9), Jan 2018 (7), Feb-Mar 2018 (9), Dec 2020-Jan 2021 (13), Jan-Feb 2021 (10), Feb 2021 (8), Dec 2022 (10). 
 

There is the chance the cold spell could be extended as there is uncertainty concerning the strength of the high pressure over Greenland, the possibility of a wedge of high pressure persisting to our north as well as cold weather being difficult to shift. 

The duration of cold temperatures is only one factor in determining the magnitude of a cold spell. The depth of cold is another. According to the GFS 06z we could be looking at 4-5 days with widespread maxima of 0C or lower which is pretty notable. In the past 50 years at Glasgow airport there have only been two days with maxima -2C or lower in the second half of winter (there’s a chance we could see such a temperature during this spell). There’s also the chance of notable minima - especially in the highlands and parts of the southern uplands - as the charts posted on this thread showed last night. I think we lows of -15 to -20C are quite likely in the highlands (-20C a possibility) and in central Scotland we could see -7 to -12C. 
 

With regards to snow it’s too early to tell but I’d say most places north of Dundee should be in the firing line of most showers. In such set ups, for most inland places we are relying on features popping up out of nowhere to deliver a surprise. It’s possible this cold spell could be predominately dry like Dec 2022 but even the spell provided a decent fall here towards the end. Also there’s always the chance of a battleground snowfall during the breakdown. Looking at the models there is a feature which could bring snow (should the warm sector play ball) to western and central areas although I suspect it may end up tracking further south  to impact SW Scotland and NW England. 

So, while this cold spell may not (yet) be a repeat of 2010 as some charts promised over a week ago this still looks like a reasonable cold spell and at the moment the signs are positive for the rest of winter. This winter has already produced a couple of decent falls so I’d take one big fall of 10cm+ or a smaller fall which leaves a few cm lasting for a few days. Despite the complaints from some in the model thread about the lack of snow (primarily for southern England) Scotland is in a decent position to experience snow and hopefully we’ll enjoy widespread snow cover. 
 

The charts at the moment remind me a little of late Dec 2000 which lasted for little more than a week. At Glasgow airport there were 5 consecutive ice days, a low of -11C and one fall of snow dumped around 20cm in the area. It’s an example of how cold spells don’t need to be prolonged to pack a punch. And you don’t need stonking high latitude blocking to produce impactful winter weather. Looking through the archives of some of the notable periods of winter weather it’s striking how quite a lot of the charts are not that impressive at face value (at least by the standards set by some in the model thread). 

[jon_d1983]

22 minutes ago, Gogoslo said:

Not sure if we will see a lot  , if any of the white stuff next week but something is definitely brewing out there.  I haven’t been on the sherry’s ( yet ), but you can almost smell it.   Am up in Ellon and it’s absolutely baltic.   Looking forward to see what the next week will bring.  I get a feeling some of you will get absolutely pasted.  Looking forward to the pics.. 

always amazed that even heading up from newburgh or balmeddie to the A90 that small increase in height can lead to heavy snow fall and gridlock 

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

Well ready and primed here.  Ground still rock hard with plenty of ice about but temperature bit higher at 3.9C with now a noticeable breeze from w/nw

[aggy]

1 hour ago, NorthYorksWeather said:

Good afternoon, I’m getting rather excited about my annual week trip to Dalwhinnie on Sunday. Looks like I couldn’t have timed it better, there is a possibility that the temperature may not rise above freezing for my entire 6 days there.  

Snow wise Dalwhinnie is quite sheltered from northerlies compared to the likes of Aviemore so will require some larger showers or bands to get a good amount here. Met Office has us right on the southern edge of the yellow warning for snow on Sunday and Monday. The one thing I don’t have to worry about is elevation as the house is a whopping 370 metres above sea level. 
Here’s hoping to a proper cold and snowy week and look forward to contributing to the group. 

 

 

Enjoy your stay and enjoy the white stuff I’m certain you will see a fair amount

[edo]

1 hour ago, NorthYorksWeather said:

Good afternoon, I’m getting rather excited about my annual week trip to Dalwhinnie on Sunday. Looks like I couldn’t have timed it better, there is a possibility that the temperature may not rise above freezing for my entire 6 days there.  

Snow wise Dalwhinnie is quite sheltered from northerlies compared to the likes of Aviemore so will require some larger showers or bands to get a good amount here. Met Office has us right on the southern edge of the yellow warning for snow on Sunday and Monday. The one thing I don’t have to worry about is elevation as the house is a whopping 370 metres above sea level. 
Here’s hoping to a proper cold and snowy week and look forward to contributing to the group. 

 

 

remember to put any snow pics you get into the model thread..... they like that 

 

just justify it by posting the picture of a model that said you would get 5cm but you actually got 20cm so this shows how you just get the cold in first then worry about snow. 

Edited January 12 by edo

[howham]

It already feels perishing outside.  Now time for some snow!

[Bullseye]

29 minutes ago, A Winter's Tale said:

At the moment it looks like this cold spell will be closer to Dec 2022 and Feb 2021 than  2009/10. The models are showing a week long cold spell which is a decent length but obviously not as impressive as the two week+ spells in 2010. Since then there haven’t been too many cold spells longer than a week. Here’s a list of spells with 7+ consecutive days of 5c or lower maxima at Glasgow airport: Jan 2011 (7), Jan-Feb 2012 (9), Nov-Dec 2012 (9), Jan 2013 (14), Mar 2013 (8), Jan 2015 (7), Jan-Feb 2015 (7), Jan 2016 (9), Jan 2018 (7), Feb-Mar 2018 (9), Dec 2020-Jan 2021 (13), Jan-Feb 2021 (10), Feb 2021 (8), Dec 2022 (10). 
 

There is the chance the cold spell could be extended as there is uncertainty concerning the strength of the high pressure over Greenland, the possibility of a wedge of high pressure persisting to our north as well as cold weather being difficult to shift. 

The duration of cold temperatures is only one factor in determining the magnitude of a cold spell. The depth of cold is another. According to the GFS 06z we could be looking at 4-5 days with widespread maxima of 0C or lower which is pretty notable. In the past 50 years at Glasgow airport there have only been two days with maxima -2C or lower in the second half of winter (there’s a chance we could see such a temperature during this spell). There’s also the chance of notable minima - especially in the highlands and parts of the southern uplands - as the charts posted on this thread showed last night. I think we lows of -15 to -20C are quite likely in the highlands (-20C a possibility) and in central Scotland we could see -7 to -12C. 
 

With regards to snow it’s too early to tell but I’d say most places north of Dundee should be in the firing line of most showers. In such set ups, for most inland places we are relying on features popping up out of nowhere to deliver a surprise. It’s possible this cold spell could be predominately dry like Dec 2022 but even the spell provided a decent fall here towards the end. Also there’s always the chance of a battleground snowfall during the breakdown. Looking at the models there is a feature which could bring snow (should the warm sector play ball) to western and central areas although I suspect it may end up tracking further south  to impact SW Scotland and NW England. 

So, while this cold spell may not (yet) be a repeat of 2010 as some charts promised over a week ago this still looks like a reasonable cold spell and at the moment the signs are positive for the rest of winter. This winter has already produced a couple of decent falls so I’d take one big fall of 10cm+ or a smaller fall which leaves a few cm lasting for a few days. Despite the complaints from some in the model thread about the lack of snow (primarily for southern England) Scotland is in a decent position to experience snow and hopefully we’ll enjoy widespread snow cover. 
 

The charts at the moment remind me a little of late Dec 2000 which lasted for little more than a week. At Glasgow airport there were 5 consecutive ice days, a low of -11C and one fall of snow dumped around 20cm in the area. It’s an example of how cold spells don’t need to be prolonged to pack a punch. And you don’t need stonking high latitude blocking to produce impactful winter weather. Looking through the archives of some of the notable periods of winter weather it’s striking how quite a lot of the charts are not that impressive at face value (at least by the standards set by some in the model thread). 

Many thanks for this, found that very interesting. 

Considering the recent winters in UK especially with warming world, I think this shows Glasgow actually has done fairly well - Jan/Feb 2015 was eye opener for me and also shows that 2020/21 winter really was something! 

Fingers firmly crossed for some promising wintery scenes next week for us lot .

Some of the runs this morning had Scotland under 850hpa temps of around -11/-12, could be really low overnight temperatures especially further north. This is also why I don't agree with some on MOD thread saying this is fairly normal "cold" spell. 

Edited January 12 by Bullseye

[Big Gally]

The icon has corrected  the small shortwave feature for tuesday, it had it running down the coast the past few runs but is now more in line with the ecm and other models. I much prefer the ecm run it gives us here in the central belt more snow lol. further up do well with a northerly anyways, give us the shortwave please lol  

[thebigyin]

1 hour ago, Gogoslo said:

Not sure if we will see a lot  , if any of the white stuff next week but something is definitely brewing out there.  I haven’t been on the sherry’s ( yet ), but you can almost smell it.   Am up in Ellon and it’s absolutely baltic.   Looking forward to see what the next week will bring.  I get a feeling some of you will get absolutely pasted.  Looking forward to the pics.. 

Who knows how much, but Sunday Monday met suggestions fae twatter. I'll buy you a beer if we don't see any

 

[101_North]

Seen plenty of tornado and storm chasing sites over the years but snow storm chasing could be my new addiction  

https://www.youtube.com/live/muzGORYrHcY

 

Edited January 12 by 101_North

[Norrance]

3 hours ago, edo said:

I think the depth of cold and the artic source and given how raw it feels already that we will get an above average spell of winter weather particularly a row of ice days for many and very low temps at night particularly over snowfields. I see KW is typing so hopefully some wise perspective incoming. 

Max temp here just at edge of Dundee was 0.0C so far today before the cold arrives! Just hope when it does that there is something that will bring precipitation to this part of the country. My daughter up in Aberdeen looks odds on though for at least some snow.

Here after a cloudy morning the sky cleared in the afternoon with a slight WNW breeze. Feeling raw out there.

[lorenzo]

1 hour ago, 101_North said:

Seen plenty of tornado and storm chasing sites over the years but snow storm chasing could be my new addiction  

https://www.youtube.com/live/muzGORYrHcY

 

Urgh - this live stream is giving me the fear... could easily change into another type of video very quickly

[101_North]

3 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Urgh - this live stream is giving me the fear... could easily change into another type of video very quickly

Yeah fair point! It's not great for the nerves despite the snow! 

[lorenzo]

I mean you could trust your own tyres and driving - but if something else veers lanes or jack-knifes - game over..

There was a vid from about a decade ago where just that very thing happened - it was a 100% wipeout. Car got annihalated.

[Snowandrocks]

A cracking winters day today - mist and fog cleared during the morning to leave a lovely flat calm crisp sunny day. I made pretty good progress working on my new shed although my metal framing square did freeze itself to the table when I went inside for lunch! 

I'm quietly optimistic for a bit more than the met office have suggested but we'll see. Should be nice powdery snow at least with the forecast uppers. 

 

[Sceptical]

Met office going with 150cm of snow for parts of the Cairngorms.

 

 

Edited January 12 by Sceptical

[Ravelin]

As the weather cleared from grey murk to blue skies around Stirling on my drive home I decided to take the scenic route up the A93. It's slightly shorter distance wise, slightly slower, but prettier and avoids potential Dundee queues.

Stopped at the summit at Glenshee for 5 mins to enjoy the view looking south as the sun was setting....

      

Looks like plenty of snow higher up, but I suspect it's not actually that deep. Ski slopes themselves looked poor unfortunately, hopefully they'll improve this week but I suspect they need quite a bit more snow.

Temperature on the drive varied wildly, sure I noticed -7C near Spittal of Glenshee, and certainly widely -4C around Braemar and Deeside. The ski center was sitting around freezing despite the extra altitude. Some quite thick mist from Ballater through to past Tarland, and then again around Alford.

Edited January 12 by Ravelin

[lorenzo]

Oh... go on then...

[Big Gally]

Just now, lorenzo said:

Oh... go on then...

 

just a large dumping will suffice please.

[Huntforsnow]

Saw this posted too 

Fingers crossed  

[lorenzo]

For Fax sake.. been such a long countdown this one, good to be into the shorter range stuff..

[lorenzo]

Pepperpot convection in the flow

Pasting further South on this run

PS - Cracking pics @Ravelin and to everyone else who keeps adding them got a folder full of Scotland at it's best this season - even if we haven't had all round snowmaggedon!

 

[howham]

I would expect some tremendous cloudscapes on Monday (maybe even Sunday here).  

[lorenzo]

13 minutes ago, howham said:

I would expect some tremendous cloudscapes on Monday (maybe even Sunday here).  

I love April for these when the last throws of the arctic pile South in a potent Northerly and convection kicks things up. Hopefully loads to add to the photo album over the coming week.

We do have the wishbone aspect which leaves loads of us bloody freezing with little or no reward, still - February looks like it may deliver from something from a more North Eastern quarter which may assuage that..