Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24

[Big Gally]

36 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Pepperpot convection in the flow

Pasting further South on this run

PS - Cracking pics @Ravelin and to everyone else who keeps adding them got a folder full of Scotland at it's best this season - even if we haven't had all round snowmaggedon!

 

I believe the gfs has the low bang on . It was first to pick up the milder interlude next weekend. So I’m going to say the gfs has this for the central belt on tuesday. Lol! 

[Bats32]

Interesting that the MetO app(I know apps aren't that accurate) has the PP forecast for Tuesday in Glasgow as mostly rain and 3C. Certainly not snowmaggedon. Rest of the week looks colder but dry(small chance on Thur of snow)

Edited January 12 by Bats32

[NorthYorksWeather]

This is getting silly now. Met Office often are quite conservative with their minimum temperatures from experience and they are going for 2 nights at -12c in Dalwhinnie. Wife thinks I’m an absolute nutter for bringing a weather station, we’ve been together 15 years so I’m surprised she didn’t expect it already.

[Huntforsnow]

5 minutes ago, NorthYorksWeather said:

This is getting silly now. Met Office often are quite conservative with their minimum temperatures from experience and they are going for 2 nights at -12c in Dalwhinnie. Wife thinks I’m an absolute nutter for bringing a weather station, we’ve been together 15 years so I’m surprised she didn’t expect it already.

When are you driving up? Hope yous have a great time

[jon_d1983]

Interesting, could this help us all heading into Feb

[M1245]

2 hours ago, Huntforsnow said:

Saw this posted too 

Fingers crossed  

BBC really putting their neck on the line with that forecast for Scotland

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

3 hours ago, Sceptical said:

Met office going with 150cm of snow for parts of the Cairngorms.

 

 

Skis waxed and ready.

Edited January 12 by Scottish-Irish Skier

[NorthYorksWeather]

22 minutes ago, Huntforsnow said:

When are you driving up? Hope yous have a great time

First thing Sunday, daughter is not far off 2 years old now so should be fun with the youngun. 

[Spindrift2017]

3 hours ago, Ravelin said:

As the weather cleared from grey murk to blue skies around Stirling on my drive home I decided to take the scenic route up the A93. It's slightly shorter distance wise, slightly slower, but prettier and avoids potential Dundee queues.

Stopped at the summit at Glenshee for 5 mins to enjoy the view looking south as the sun was setting....

      

Looks like plenty of snow higher up, but I suspect it's not actually that deep. Ski slopes themselves looked poor unfortunately, hopefully they'll improve this week but I suspect they need quite a bit more snow.

Temperature on the drive varied wildly, sure I noticed -7C near Spittal of Glenshee, and certainly widely -4C around Braemar and Deeside. The ski center was sitting around freezing despite the extra altitude. Some quite thick mist from Ballater through to past Tarland, and then again around Alford.

Great photos.

Seems to have been quite a pronounced temperature inversion. The South Cairngorms area avalanche forecaster’s blog today (linked below) mentions a temperature of -8 at Braemar but +6 on the high tops. Also contains a bonus panorama photo from the top of Glas Maol.

Southern Cairngorms Blog & Mountain Info » Sun, firm snow and the odd unstable pocket.

SCAIRNGORMSBLOG.SAIS.GOV.UK

 

Edited January 12 by Spindrift2017
Clarifying link is included

[Glaswegianblizzard]

6 hours ago, A Winter's Tale said:

At the moment it looks like this cold spell will be closer to Dec 2022 and Feb 2021 than  2009/10. The models are showing a week long cold spell which is a decent length but obviously not as impressive as the two week+ spells in 2010. Since then there haven’t been too many cold spells longer than a week. Here’s a list of spells with 7+ consecutive days of 5c or lower maxima at Glasgow airport: Jan 2011 (7), Jan-Feb 2012 (9), Nov-Dec 2012 (9), Jan 2013 (14), Mar 2013 (8), Jan 2015 (7), Jan-Feb 2015 (7), Jan 2016 (9), Jan 2018 (7), Feb-Mar 2018 (9), Dec 2020-Jan 2021 (13), Jan-Feb 2021 (10), Feb 2021 (8), Dec 2022 (10). 
 

There is the chance the cold spell could be extended as there is uncertainty concerning the strength of the high pressure over Greenland, the possibility of a wedge of high pressure persisting to our north as well as cold weather being difficult to shift. 

The duration of cold temperatures is only one factor in determining the magnitude of a cold spell. The depth of cold is another. According to the GFS 06z we could be looking at 4-5 days with widespread maxima of 0C or lower which is pretty notable. In the past 50 years at Glasgow airport there have only been two days with maxima -2C or lower in the second half of winter (there’s a chance we could see such a temperature during this spell). There’s also the chance of notable minima - especially in the highlands and parts of the southern uplands - as the charts posted on this thread showed last night. I think we lows of -15 to -20C are quite likely in the highlands (-20C a possibility) and in central Scotland we could see -7 to -12C. 
 

With regards to snow it’s too early to tell but I’d say most places north of Dundee should be in the firing line of most showers. In such set ups, for most inland places we are relying on features popping up out of nowhere to deliver a surprise. It’s possible this cold spell could be predominately dry like Dec 2022 but even the spell provided a decent fall here towards the end. Also there’s always the chance of a battleground snowfall during the breakdown. Looking at the models there is a feature which could bring snow (should the warm sector play ball) to western and central areas although I suspect it may end up tracking further south  to impact SW Scotland and NW England. 

So, while this cold spell may not (yet) be a repeat of 2010 as some charts promised over a week ago this still looks like a reasonable cold spell and at the moment the signs are positive for the rest of winter. This winter has already produced a couple of decent falls so I’d take one big fall of 10cm+ or a smaller fall which leaves a few cm lasting for a few days. Despite the complaints from some in the model thread about the lack of snow (primarily for southern England) Scotland is in a decent position to experience snow and hopefully we’ll enjoy widespread snow cover. 
 

The charts at the moment remind me a little of late Dec 2000 which lasted for little more than a week. At Glasgow airport there were 5 consecutive ice days, a low of -11C and one fall of snow dumped around 20cm in the area. It’s an example of how cold spells don’t need to be prolonged to pack a punch. And you don’t need stonking high latitude blocking to produce impactful winter weather. Looking through the archives of some of the notable periods of winter weather it’s striking how quite a lot of the charts are not that impressive at face value (at least by the standards set by some in the model thread). 

Great post, thanks very much!

All replies noted, expectations adjusted accordingly! All looking pretty interesting for the next week - bring it on!

[Penicuikblizzard]

3 hours ago, lorenzo said:

Oh... go on then...

Fingers crossed

[johncam]

1 hour ago, Bats32 said:

Interesting that the MetO app(I know apps aren't that accurate) has the PP forecast for Tuesday in Glasgow as mostly rain and 3C. Certainly not snowmaggedon. Rest of the week looks colder but dry(small chance on Thur of snow)

Yes noticed that for us , sleet then rain , that would be bloody typical 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Ideas for Tuesday / Weds

  

 

 

[Hairy Celt]

1 hour ago, NorthYorksWeather said:

First thing Sunday, daughter is not far off 2 years old now so should be fun with the youngun. 

Should be brilliant with a toddler. Can't beat it. Brings back memories.

edit: the key is to keep her dry - then she'll keep warm too. You know this I'm sure, sorry.

Edited January 12 by Hairy Celt

[Quinach]

Impressive rise in temperature over the last hour from -2.5c to the current 2.9c (and rising).

[Hairy Celt]

2 minutes ago, Quinach said:

Impressive rise in temperature over the last hour from -2.5c to the current 2.9c (and rising).

We're at 5.5C now. Nuts. It was raining a short while ago.

[Ravelin]

-3.5c here at 5pm, up to 4.3C now. It was always forecast to warm up into Saturday, before we head back into the freezer on Sunday. 

[Norrance]

7 hours ago, A Winter's Tale said:

At the moment it looks like this cold spell will be closer to Dec 2022 and Feb 2021 than  2009/10. The models are showing a week long cold spell which is a decent length but obviously not as impressive as the two week+ spells in 2010. Since then there haven’t been too many cold spells longer than a week. Here’s a list of spells with 7+ consecutive days of 5c or lower maxima at Glasgow airport: Jan 2011 (7), Jan-Feb 2012 (9), Nov-Dec 2012 (9), Jan 2013 (14), Mar 2013 (8), Jan 2015 (7), Jan-Feb 2015 (7), Jan 2016 (9), Jan 2018 (7), Feb-Mar 2018 (9), Dec 2020-Jan 2021 (13), Jan-Feb 2021 (10), Feb 2021 (8), Dec 2022 (10). 
 

 

I just wish it was like Feb 2021.Here with 36cms the  deepest snow since Dec 2010 (or 2013 on slightly higher ground locally) and the lowest temp since early December 2010. Sadly at least for those south of the Highlands and Grampian it doesn't look likely at least for snowfall. Having said that once the cold is in you never know and after a warmer blip plenty signs that there could be more to come, hopefully some from the East for imby and through the Central belt.

Edited January 12 by Norrance

[Hairy Celt]

 The little feature off the west could deliver. Worth seeing what happens with that over the next days, or until it disappears altogether of course.

Edited January 12 by Hairy Celt
sweet child of time...

[Norrance]

19 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

-3.5c here at 5pm, up to 4.3C now. It was always forecast to warm up into Saturday, before we head back into the freezer on Sunday. 

Still -2C here just now and can still see stars through a haze but milder air not far away I think. Could still make an ice day if you count a max of 0.0C as ok

Edited January 12 by Norrance

[Hairy Celt]

8 minutes ago, Norrance said:

Still -2C here just now and can still see stars through a haze but milder air not far away I think. Could still make an ice day if you count a max of 0.0C as ok

I don't think 0C counts as freezing as it's for the time increment where 0C is the bottom value of the increment. Not exactly sure. Perhaps @Scottish-Irish Skier could help as usual on these matters. 

[jon_d1983]

Just been out with dog and it’s still Baltic. Fingers were . Temp says 1°c but the earlier frost on grass has gone. Hopefully a mild ish day tomorow as I need to put up a fence to keep dog in garden

[Norrance]

45 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

I don't think 0C counts as freezing as it's for the time increment where 0C is the bottom value of the increment. Not exactly sure. Perhaps @Scottish-Irish Skier could help as usual on these matters. 

You are correct. Was confirmed by John Holmes I think. Has to be under zero though am not really too bothered. Still a pretty cold day though but now back up to -0.4C so on the rise. 
Just checked again and now +0.8C so a rapid rise in the last few minutes and making any argument about 0.0C irrelevant.    
edit. Just as I have been typing it has gone up again to 1.5C. Wow!

Edited January 12 by Norrance

[Hairy Celt]

6 minutes ago, Norrance said:

You are correct. Was confirmed by John Holmes I think. Has to be under zero though am not really too bothered. Still a pretty cold day though but now back up to -0.4C so on the rise. 
Just checked again and now +0.8C so a rapid rise in the last few minutes and making any argument about 0.0C irrelevant.    
edit. Just as I have been typing it has gone up again to 1.5C. Wow!

I went for a walk this afternoon and it was really cold in the wind, like a few people have said.  There's still a few small patches of old snow visible on the south side of the firth (north-facing) which have been there for weeks now - I would like to see them last till Sunday and get covered.

[lorenzo]

3 hours ago, NorthYorksWeather said:

This is getting silly now. Met Office often are quite conservative with their minimum temperatures from experience and they are going for 2 nights at -12c in Dalwhinnie. Wife thinks I’m an absolute nutter for bringing a weather station, we’ve been together 15 years so I’m surprised she didn’t expect it already.

Been on the Netweather Scottish Thread for one afternoon and this is what happens !!!

Welcome to Scotland X