Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24

[cragonmore]

Steady light snow around Forfar and Kirriemuir area last half hour giving a white covering as ground so cold. It’s the first snow as missed out on the showers last few days. 

[Northernlights]

Steadier snow now begins to accumulate

[Norrance]

For central belt first lot too far south and second lot too far north apart from the narrow band maybe which may fall as rain or sleet.
Meanwhile Aberdeen daughter tells me it is snowing with her again!

Edited January 16 by Norrance

[rob4al]

The big blob on the radar has arrived here in Coatbridge, as rain!

[Ross90]

Raining here too. The BBC were much closer with their temps today. 3C while the met only had it briefly going above 0C all day.

[johncam]

3 minutes ago, rob4al said:

The big blob on the radar has arrived here in Coatbridge, as rain!

Yep , a busted flush this whole so called cold spell has been for us here 

[Ricky67]

Just now, Ross90 said:

Raining here too. The BBC were much closer with their temps today. 3C while the met only had it briefly going above 0C all day.

Sadly the usual for us.  Virtually every promised snowfall ends up in disappointment.  The Lanarkshire snowshield/thundershield strikes again!

[Penicuikblizzard]

Very light sleety pish here temp up to 2c

Still waiting on the forecast arctic blast lol 

Maybe February now 

[Norrie Tolson]

When is this mild sector supposed to pass through?

What a disappointment today!!

[Bats32]

3 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

Raining here too. The BBC were much closer with their temps today. 3C while the met only had it briefly going above 0C all day.

UKV

[Big Gally]

Has turned into a wet damp day couldn’t make it up. If anything best chance for a flurry would be tonight at best. Och well there’s always February.

[Mr T]

Heavier snow now on and lots of birds at the feeding station in the back garden. Snowboarding later after work on a nearby hill with night lights. Was a blast last night with 9yr old who was excited to get his snowboard back out the storage bag. 

[Bats32]

6 minutes ago, Big Gally said:

Has turned into a wet damp day couldn’t make it up. If anything best chance for a flurry would be tonight at best. Och well there’s always February.

Whole cold spell has been underwhelming. I'm glad the Atlantic has been stopped for a couple of weeks and I like cold frosty and sunny days but it's really been nothing special otherwise IMBY.

Edited January 16 by Bats32

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Aligned for Glenshee sweetly. Chuckin it doon.

 

Drifting too it seems, which is great for filling between the fences.

Edited January 16 by Scottish-Irish Skier

[Big Gally]

5 minutes ago, Bats32 said:

Whole cold spell has been underwhelming. I'm glad the Atlantic has been stopped for a couple of weeks and I like cold frosty and sunny days but it's really been nothing special otherwise IMBY.

Yip a lot of hype for not much. Well us in the central belt. Maybe February will give us a chance. I’m kind of glad we never got snow this morning now, looking at what’s outside would have been worse. Snow to rain event.

Edited January 16 by Big Gally

[Quinach]

The radar image looks dramatic, but looking outside there is just the faintest hint of snizzle falling.

Thaw continues as its 0.5c - as noted above roads are going to be treacherous this evening once the frost returns as the council seem to have been using grit with the barest minimum of salt in it.

Edit - saw first Brambling for a couple of years in the garden this morning, surprised not been more Scandinavian birds paying a visit this winter considering the cold they've had over there.

Edited January 16 by Quinach

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Detailed post discussing the Greenland High plus the patterns heading through Jan week 4

8 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Mid January 2024

This period of weather has developed as a result of the suite of teleconnective feedback working in tandem as discussed in depth across many of my posts since latter December and within my winter outlook. 

The peak strength to this Greenland High is occuring between now [January 15th] and lasting for roughly the next 5>6 days, some parts of Greenland will likely be seeing record hpa values for this timeframe which are often depicted by the Black and purple anomalies over various model suites. Also some noteable High temperature anomalies in parts of Greenland.

As covered in various posts this event is bringing significant & severe winter weather including the UK and Ireland with multiple Ice days, snow events of varying varieties and intensity > snow streamers over North Northeast and Northwestern Scotland, also a small feature on a Northwest >> Southeast orientation which is set to bring further snowfall to the above areas whilst extending to include a large majority of Scotland including Central, some getting further East in Scotland and latest data is suggestive of a possible significant snow event particularly toward Northwestern England, potentially extending into the pennines, Northern Ireland may also receive snowfall.

Whilst a lower likliehood scenario there remains a chance of precipitation running across the far Southern > Southeastern Coast of England, this could fall as a wintry mix including snow.

As mentioned in my quoted post as an Atlantic cyclone begins the merging process linking to the Scandinavian Baltic Trough which is also an elongating sector of the Tropospheric Vortex this will see the beginning of the expected significant/ severe flash flooding event(s) particularly focusing over Portugal and into Northwest Spain. Ahead of this also within the same connecting troughing we'll see a transitioning rain event which will develop into a significant snowfall through France into the Netherlands and other low countries such as Belgium this event will gradually shift its focus and impacts further South and Southeast through parts of Germany and once more a significant event into the Alps. Eventually this wintry weather moves eastward into other areas of Europe.

As the Greenland High begins intensification the EXTREME and historical level cold [see my posts in the Global model thread and the record threads] which had began development from Western Canada / Northwest America begins transitioning / expansion gradually Southeast & Eastward

850hpa temperature anomalies

Surface Temperature anomalies

Actual surface temperature 

This is depicted excellently if we look at the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation values. 

3 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Following onto the post above I've done an in depth post of the impacts connecting with the Greenland High.

'Again links with recent MJO phases this links with the PNA heading more into positive territory, door opens for a snowy system into Northeast America from roughly Jan 18th - 21st IMO '

Excellent to see  

 

 

'Following the MJO passing across the Maritimes we begin seeing feedback of phases 1 and into 2 as January week 4 gets started a high forms toward the Maritimes which might extend through Canada, also I'm starting to notice the trend toward cut off low development toward Mexico, far Southwest US "

 

 

This will have a setup which favours a + North Atlantic Oscillation especially during January week 4, this favours above average temperatures. Initially there is also more of a -PNA which also connects with the above average temperatures across the eastern portion of America / Canada and Maritimes with below average further west.

 

[Crackerjack]

Lovely conditions in Aviemore today, snowing for a good few hours now. As a snow lover I choose a great week to visit the area again  

[Kayemill]

Sun is out now.

[Snowlover2]

Ok which one of you turned my snow shield off?

[Mair Snaw]

It could snaw like this for a week and we might get a dusting, does look like the heavier stuff has gone south of me. Maybe its the showers following later that are meant to give me another 5cm to 10cm...

[Gogoslo]

Lightest of snow falling here also on the coast.  Has got quite gloomy as well.   Will be interesting to see what the next few hours brings.  Wasn’t really expecting any further snow this far east.  Are there accurate radar apps out there or are they all much the same ?  I’ve been using NWs own one which seems decent 

[NorthYorksWeather]

About to leave Aviemore after hell of a view from the bar stool. 
 

Would say there’s roughly 6cm so far, radar suggesting a lot more back in Dalwhinnie so will report back total amounts when I’m back at holiday cottage. 

[Stormeh]

What a big let down today was for here. I have always experienced decent snow events in February and March so winter is not over yet. Well done to everyone who has snow, I am enjoying the pictures

[Russsty]

Well i was not expecting this. Quite the dump of snow in Stoney for the past half hour, heavy, persistent, large flakes covering everything white again. If this carries on for another hour, then it will be the end of days, it's beautiful!