Is winter coming back

[East Kent Clipper]

First post here so please be gentle on me. Remarkable warmth here this morning for early February and the birds think it is spring. Before too long it looks like changes are afoot which may lead to a quite different end to the month. The GFS model teases us all the time with its wild swings in FI but for what it is worth I think here in the South East our most interesting spell of winter is still to come. Hints of something from the north east look very possible around the 20th and if we are lucky who knows it might even snow. Despite the clear warming in our climate if we get the synoptic set up just right it could just deliver for those of us yet to see any proper snow in this long winter.

[Tn9]

But its always ,sorry not always but  when it starts getting into spring or autumn changes to winter its more favourable, so i guess it has to do with too much temperature variation that scuppers us ..south east  that is or what we would call widespead snow ,up north on a hill you stand half a chance ,SSW for instance it has 1 in 4 chance of helping us get a colder and longer cold spell but its over ridden by the pieces of vortex that are split because it seems  to drop into north atlantic ( low ) then duration is short lived even if it comes to our advantage, that is  ( my opinion) is why its hard to get a good cold spell here in the south east ,one in four ,then not so long as olden days ,if the vortex is broken its safe haven is north atlantic thats our position as a country ,we cant change that can we ? 

Edited February 12, 2024 by Tn9

[Tn9]

Ps ..as an asside ,AMOC..ok its got a lot of  interest lately, but as a self leveler its  perfect if it  should weaken or stop ,then we would be colder very much so ,maybe not snowy but cold very cold ,but if you think melting equals fresh water pouring in  equals ,salinity levels which will stop current ,then its nature self leveling with no  interference from us ..its doing its self ..more likely has for millions of years ,so if AMOC stops its gonna be hard but at  least future generations will have a chance ,the planet has more cards up its sleeve to sort our b***ocks out ...but sometimes to our cost now  ..:)

Edited February 12, 2024 by Tn9

[ANYWEATHER]

 East Kent Clipper Is Winter coming back.....For a lot if people it never got here

[Tn9]

And as you know  we seed clouds to  change  them  to get  wet or dry.. ( we know that ) its fact ,but to run amoc ,leave that to mother nature ..