Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards

[ThomasD27]

Seems like a lot of us are getting treated to some lovely mammatus. No thunder heard from this beast though

[Thunders]

 LIGHTNING ACTION I have Samsung phone then an iPad, I guess iPad would have to do? Trying to save my phones storage tbh 

Small shower to the east 

[LIGHTNING ACTION]

 Thunders yeah, iPads have time lapse feature

[Metwatch]

Lost count of which shower this is, but my brother got caught under it in a park a few miles east of Coventry and said it had hail, certainly looked like it!

The hole in the clouds here caught my eye:

Not sure if it's just me but anyone see a sad face with this one?

Seen several more photos of mammatus around Birmingham, so I reckon this is the anvil it was on:

A nice full rainbow to finish off!

Edited March 29 by Metwatch

[Rush2019]

Had really heavy downpour little while ago.  Some strikes SE of Macc, but too far away to hear.  Nice show of mammatus on it's back edge as the shower cleared.

[Sparkiee storm]

Great mammatus here too

Edited March 29 by Sparkiee storm

[The Tall Weatherman]

WOW ! Golden hour did not disappoint ! Managed to get in on some of the Mammatus and some beautiful storm structures including some Iridescence and huge anvils. The thunderstorm threat seems to be diminishing now for the near future where cloudy and rainy skies seem likely

[Robert1981]

 The Tall Weatherman great pictures and tomorrow night storm season begins I allways say because of long summer days haha

[Rush2019]

Tomorrow's outlook from European Severe Storm.  Slight risk concentrated more for the Western side of the UK.

[Metwatch]

The showers continued into sunset and produced some brilliant colours. Mammatus properly made an appearance at last!

Superb day and unusual for Coventry to see so much in a day as showers / thunderstorms have a tendency to avoid the city but not in recent days

 

 

 

 

Edited March 29 by Metwatch

[Asher]

 Thunders most phones have a time lapse function, also if you're willing to leave your phone you can set up a record and speed it up in various apps online. I can't remember the last app I used but can search if needs be?

[Rufus Butterfield]

Decent early season storm with a bit of thunder and some of the best mammatus I’ve seen in a while. Soaking wet afterwards though, didn’t really have a plan when the storm came.

[Thunders]

 Asher alright, ty. ill testa few tomorrow 

[Allseasons-Si]

Caught some Mammatus here this afternoon too,this was a storm to my SE

just to add,...what a shamefull winter it has been,let's hope for a good storm season to make up for it eh

P.S some great shot's in here today guys

Edited March 30 by Allseasons-Si

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook ️

 

Sporadic showers will develop across W Eng Ire & Scot today bringing the risk of the odd / couple of lightning strikes.

 

During the night / overnight, a trough will advect into SW Eng bringing the risk of a few rumbles/strikes, mainly in the Eng Channel

Sorry for no full discussion, not really worth it. 

[Metwatch]

Intense hail shower today just north of Stirling this afternoon

 

Wanted to share a few shots from Jack in North Warwickshire from yesterday, also some stunning mammatus and cloudscapes too:

Some more mammatus yesterday, wonder if it's been a record of some sorts for so many sightings in a single month!

 

Edited March 30 by Metwatch

[The Tall Weatherman]

Definitely some scope tomorrow evening for some storms in the south ️ The Arome model shows <900J/kg of surface based cape in the Afternoon across the far south and widespread strong radar returns. Diurnal heating and sea breeze convergence should also aid convection across this area as we move into the evening. Models are still some time out so we should wait and see

[LightningLover]

I note the 18z GFS has a brief flirtation with 14-15c 850's in the SE during the early hours of the 6th... Warm, humid air (13-15c at the surface around 01:00) being advected by a deep trough out west- could be one to watch!

Edited March 30 by LightningLover

[Eagle Eye]

I don't necessarily agree with the slight risk into the SE but gotta be brave I guess.

Convective Outlook️ 

Potentially very interesting Theta-E envelope from the SE ejects NW through the south providing a platform for potentially a mass of showers and storms to hit the south coast in the evening andor overnight. Also the potential for some hefty showers in Ireland throughout the day with some lightning potential.

 

In Ireland, the potential is there for some heavy showers to form along some weak buoyant forced air, 100+ J/KG of 3CAPE in areas will help force some low topped showers and storms spread mainly through western Ireland throughout the day with quite high saturation helping stop most lightning activity and keeping it sporadic.

 

Meanwhile in the south, slightly ahead or rather just latching onto the front of an advecting occluded front, is an area of buoyant air in a thin strip pushing through sometime between about 5-10 pm for coastal areas and thst may potentially allow for some storms to embed themselves into the front or become pre-frontal mode storms. If they embed themselves into the front, they're likely to become thundery showers given similar situations, it seems almost as if the energy that they hold, is spread out into the front when they join it. However, the ones (if any) that form ahead and stay ahead for longer could become fairly potent.

 

For the SE, showers and storms could have a decent chance of arriving before the front with them pushing in from Belgium moving NW, they'd also have a very short time over the channel compared to some other places. However, that may not matter as the cool channel water temperature may be missed by the storm because there's a surface inversion that could form in the evening with the moving buoyant strip, and not only does it avoid the channel, it helps for the energy to be held in the layer with the lowest saturation. Also, timing may not be as much of an issue; with the bending of the buoyant strip and the front potentially not even reaching here, it allows for multiple hours in which formation of storms is possible. However, a problem with theis whole system is feeble MLCAPE and how much of that is because the surface inversion inhibits the use of the lowest 100mb lifted to the level of free convection and the fairly well energised mid-layer on the soundings suggest that, even though it's still not much more, I've seen similar events do quite well once that surface inversion layer is in place, especially with the buoyancy in place. A forcing band also appears there, even on models that don't convect the actual forcing.

 

Then the next area is the central south having been in the least cloudy environment for most of the day just south of the central south in channel up until the buoyancy hits means it's primed for quick convection. This again appears to be because of a surface inversion allowing for elevated showers and storms to form ahead of the front or perhaps in it it if its broken up and that could still work. Again weak energy  but the models overdoing the weakness of it. Another area for these to develop. This area continues to be highly saturated throughout the day though and doesn't weaken the saturation at the mid-levels before the evening which may keep away lightning potential. 

 

Those are the main areas but most of the south coast does have the potential there but very low model agreement so we're sticking to a slight risk to the south and keeping it in the low risk and giving it an area of interest (AOI) for the main portions of the convection potential. No real severe potential exists, likely due to the elevated nature of these if they do form at all, there's a chance they keep away from the south coast, however there is some wind gusts potential given the downwards energy that the storms may hold but it's still pretty weak.

[Thunderspotter]

Loving these forecasts and the explanations! I'm right in the centeral south so I'll keep an eye out today for any convection

Also, anyone seen the nee Met Office warning? Not that the warning system is really any effective or accurate anymore... Just thought that i'd mention it.

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

 Thunderspotter heavy frontal rain by the looks of it with perhaps isolated lightning but that may curse the whole system . We'll have to see. Also thank you, it's now my second year working with my friend who makes the maps and I do the discussion for these. We've been doing quite well this year but he can only edit and save the edit like 2 times a day so it's quite difficult to get a good map that's to all of our mini groups satisfactions and something may come and change our expectations. So I think we do well considering.

Edited March 31 by Eagle Eye

[Robert1981]

 Eagle Eye I like your maps and find your information interesting and handy when going around chasing the storms/heavy convective showers keep up the great work

[Thunderspotter]

 Eagle Eye haha! It's great that even with all the hardships with making the map etc. that you still do it. I appreciate the dedication! You do very well with these forecasts. Keep it up! 

[Eagle Eye]

 Thunderspotter

Thanks again , hopefully tonight has some kind of pay off. It's a hugely risky night as it's very conditional the threat but something worth keeping an eye on in my opinion. WRF does what I think could happen in the best case scenario with 1000+ J/KG of MUCAPE and bear in mind it's not even April yet. Sorry its an awkward map to work out where we are. 

[Thunderspotter]

 Eagle Eye  still very early on in the year, I'm surprised that such large storms have already happened over the past few days.

 

Looks like the SW (and CS?) are in for another chance tomorrow. ESSL forecast is spitting out some widespread risks so we'll see how that develops!

Even if nothing happens tonight or tomorrow, I enjoy coming on here and looking at the forecasts/predictions. Very interesting to see (especially as I'm still pretty new to the forecasting game!).