Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards

[Eagle Eye]

 WeatherArc

For stronger UK tornadoes you are totally right there in my opinion. For the bigger outbreaks with weaker tornadoes, it's the north Atlantic lows over the colder parts of the year that seem to do best. Especially ones that can combine with a Theta-E arm from wherever with increased moisture. 

Edited March 27 by Eagle Eye

[WeatherWatchmanG]

 Eagle Eye

 

I don't like this chatter about tornado outbreaks in the UK.

 

NIMBY yes but just no please No!

[Eagle Eye]

 WeatherWatchmanG Your location being west London suggests you're nowhere near the potential tomorrow at least. 

Edited March 27 by Eagle Eye

[Rufus Butterfield]

Decent convective skies this afternoon. Rain/hail curtains and squally winds.

Edited March 27 by Rufus Butterfield

[Mapantz]

Recorded 26 strikes nearby today. Heard lots of thunder and saw several flashes. Quite chuffed seeing as it passes just to the west. Hopefully a sign of things to come!

[Thunders]

I’m guessing that stuff moving north from france has no chance of electrifying.

[WeatherWatchmanG]

 Eagle Eye I hope so we got hit bad in January and already recently replaced the garden fence.

[Thunderspotter]

 Thunders I'm secretly hoping it does, but realistically it'll die out before it reaches the UK lmao

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook️ 

A complex system of showers and multi-cellular clusters of storms mainly for southern and central England moving NE throughout the day with lots of trailing showers. Strong surface energy forced onto surface-based buoyant airflow with high-level shearing, stretching the vorticity streamwise for strong low-level helicity.

 

100+ J/KG of 3CAPE will help aid strong forced bands of showers and storms capable of organised lightning but mostly sporadic, mainly in the SW, central south, southern Wales and parts of central England. Mainly in the early afternoon and lasting throughout into the evening though. Perhaps waning late evening to just weak showers overnight.

 

Forcing bands will help with the momentum and buoyancy to allow these to form and also become the central potential for severe weather. These low-level vorticity forcings, where they are strongest can force taller towers with almost their own identity depending on the strength, along with where they crossover with the strongest 3CAPE for low-level energy that can go into working with the low-level shear and potentially form a tornado. Especially, with near surface storms with higher wind friction near the surface which can sometimes force the start to a tornado (apparently) and it's a very interesting case as to if and where these form if they do for future forecasting. Also a potential for coastal tornadic activity with the showers and storms with the friction.

 

Isolated showers in Ireland and northern Ireland, mainly northern Ireland are possible. Perhaps a small chance of a lightning strike with those. As well as that, a band of rain that may have embedded towers looks to hit the SE in the day on a few forecasts and the main storms may hit the SE and the east and renew late evening with perhaps some re strengthening of the Theta-E in the region. Again, that may allow for some lightning to sporadically occur.

 

Generally though, the main potential is for sporadic and then some fairly frequent lightning in the central south, up to central England, south Wales and south western parts of England. Along with tornadic potential with this, but what would likely be weak tornadic activity unless the energy increases further.

 

Wind strength is also likely to be gusty with these. Both by the low placed over the UK and the storms themselves with all the low-level  forcing.

[Thunderspotter]

 Eagle Eye awesome forecasts as always!

[Thunders]

 Thunderspotter why can’t we have that thing that’s off of the coast of florida, the amount of lightning on that thing is mad. It’ll be big enough to cover both of us lol

[ChannelThunder]

Very juicy radar returns for so early in the year. This lot is headed for my doorstep, too, although I imagine it'll lose intensity by the time it gets near.

 

[Jasper Foxx]

 Andy Bown Have just seen it, that was impressive!

[Thunderspotter]

Channel is just a rainy mess now.

[matty40s]

Lots of snow in Devon, East Cornwall.

 

Edited March 27 by matty40s

[Alderc 2.0]

Extremely heavy hail shower to wake me up!!

[ChannelThunder]

Love that radar. Screw the rain haters all over social media - this is an interesting little period of weather if you ask me - the sun can wait a little longer

[Ben Sainsbury]

Already some right-moving cells out in the channel. Looks like it will be an interesting day!

This cell really kicking into gear after a storm merger and now getting "that look"

Edited March 28 by Ben Sainsbury

[Ben Sainsbury]

Anyone near Plymouth that can get a visual on the storm?

[Eagle Eye]

Already quite a big storm for March and we haven't reached afternoon heating, Im not going to complain about what we're seeing so far even if it doesn't look like I'll be hit by a storm soon. Looks like we're going to have another quick start to storm season with potential that we don't see from 7 days out much and usually starts looking good a few days before and delivers like last year started off. Whilst Spanish plumes often end up in stronger and more memorable storm events, usually at night, which is in my opinion the best time for storms, these types of days are still up there. Especially if they can go into the evenings like yesterday. 

Edited March 28 by Eagle Eye

[Daniel_c150311]

this storm seems to be shaped kind of like a hook, there might be some rotation or a tornado but I'm not 100%

[CoventryWeather]

Seems to be cloud breaking/clearance south of Plymouth and Torbay, could be some decent convection if that reaches land. Wonder if this is an area to watch for early afternoon. 

[Wivenswold]

 Dxnielwashere  Yes, the intensity of the shower has eased in the latest image but still with a small hook. There was a warning of small-track tornadoes in that area so it all makes sense.

[Fen Wolf]

I am currently in the sw under all of this, probs my Mjǫllnir  

 

Storms and lightning multiple times today over south hams, plymouth and north devon (basically where the snow fell overnight) 

 

My hammer must be causing this just like DANA in the canaries . 
Can confirm snow, hail, thunder and lightning today 

[Sparkiee storm]

Small but very intense echo between Cardiff and Newport with quite a bit of lightning.