Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

[cheeky_monkey]

 damianslaw Every Strong or super strong El Nino in the past has resulted in a Mild snowless winter with the exception of 1983 which had an exceptionally mild January followed by a cold snowy February..so was always perplexed by the notion of an El Nino pattern favouring a cold winter in lots of the winter forecast for 2023-24

[Snowyowl9]

 damianslaw

March will make up for I can see some interest coming..

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 damianslaw other winters it's been similar to are 2006-07, 1994-95, 2015-16 and 2018-19.    

[Don]

 cheeky_monkey I think there were some thoughts that the El Nino would develop into a Modiki type, which of course it never did?

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Snowyowl9 I'd say the most similar marches to this year coming up are 1998, 2007, 1995, 2016 and 2019 to be perfectly honest with you.   

[Buzzard]

 Addicks Fan 1981 Never saw the Ousel as high as last week by Morrisons. Just off for a run now, timed impeccably again I think

Never ending rain. 

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Index has come in as 32 for winter 2023-24

Manchester Winter index for 21st century winters ranked from least "wintriest" to most "wintriest"

2013-14: 7

2006-07: 21

2015-16: 28

2021-22: 28

2019-20: 29

2023-24: 32

2007-08: 37

2016-17: 37

2002-03: 44

2018-19: 45

2004-05: 47

2011-12: 47

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2022-23: 53

2005-06: 59

2000-01: 77

2014-15: 82

2017-18: 93

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

2020-21: 120

2009-10: 197

[Buzzard]

Wet sleet for 10 mins! Claiming that as our winter 

[danm]

Parts of UK may have had wettest February on record

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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Weather data to be released on Friday will also likely show that this winter was less frosty than normal.

Parts of the UK including East Anglia, the Midlands and areas of South Wales have had their wettest February on record, the Met Office is expected to confirm on Friday.

[Froze were the Days]

I'd just like to congratulate everybody who said 'Winter was over' after the mid-January cold spell/snap - yes they were correct! (myself included)...also I made a post early February after seeing a few of the det charts saying if the weather we experienced was anything like the models were showing we could be 'staring down the barrel of the warmest February on record' and hey ho!...of course greeted by no likes in the model thread or completely ignored unlike some  experienced/pro posts whom couldn't get it more wrong if they tried.

By the way it is considerably easier now days in the 'large teapot' to predict mild conditions over cold...

Edited March 1 by Froze were the Days

[cheeky_monkey]

 Don im no ENSO expert but even to me it was always going to be a basin wide strong event..think it was just wishful thinking by some

[al78]

Press release from Met Office about February and winter 2023/4 overall. Says what we all know, very mild and wet, especially wet in the southern half of the UK.

Warmest February on record for England and Wales

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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England and Wales had their respective warmest Februarys on record according to provisional Met Office statistics in what was a mild and wet month for many.

March has started off with a wet day here in Horsham.

[Beanz]

Certainly been an interesting winter, the twists and turns of the models have been great fun this season, keeping us all on our toes.  

[Don]

39 minutes ago, Beanz said:

Certainly been an interesting winter, the twists and turns of the models have been great fun this season, keeping us all on our toes.

Had the 'twists and turns' of the models led to cold spells properly materialising, then I would have agreed with this!

[stainesbloke]

Also the wettest winter ever recorded for parts of England (think S and SE?). Grim

[LetItSnow!]

Shocked at the fact that in some parts it was wetter than 2013-2014 in parts and exactly ten years on too. It definitely has felt like a very wet winter though not a record breaker, though I’m not sure how the record stands for London. 2013-2014 feels wetter from memory. A remarkable run of wet weather since July last year. Imagine telling people worried about drought in August 2022 that this is where we’d be now! 

[Stationary Front]

 Weather-history that’s dismal reading for winters post 2017/2018

[reef]

 Weather-historyIt came in at just 21 here, the 5th lowest in the last 40 years.

it was also the wettest since 1980 for us and the first winter in 40 years with more than 150% of average rainfall.

[al78]

 stainesbloke My perception living in Sussex is that southern England has had some pretty awful weather since the spectacular spring of 2020. The period seems to have featured a lot of locked in weather patterns, from persistent wet periods to bone dry and hot periods. There doesn't seem to have been very much happy medium weather.

[al78]

 cheeky_monkey The teleconnection between ENSO and UK winters is really a intra-seasonal link. El Nino has a modest link to more likely outbreaks of colder weather in the second half of the season but obviously that hasn't happened. The ENSO link is weak and will be dominated by other factors so it is not something to hedge your bets on in isolation.

[Beanz]

On 02/03/2024 at 00:05, Don said:

Had the 'twists and turns' of the models led to cold spells properly materialising, then I would have agreed with this!

Some of us hang out here for weather, not just snow… 

[Don]

 Beanz ok but would you say to someone ‘some of us hang out here for weather, not just for warmth’ after an exceptionally cool and wet summer?  

[Snowyowl9]

 Addicks Fan 1981

March 1995 was very atlantic driven snowfall.

1998 we d had to skip to the very snowy april,march gave nothing or a blip of snow..

March 2007 gave a nice potent cold snap with some drifting snow..

There was snow in march 2016,but we ll skip to the latest april cold spell I ve known in april with snow and soft hail coverings lovely to see it was..

Then we ll skip to april 2019 which gave 3 inches of snow with some more drifting..so april looks likely then this year as last march gave the heaviest snowfall of last winter by far..

A modest march we are looking at going at this year,already had snow in 2024 march,who knows...

Edited March 3 by Snowyowl9

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Well that's "winter" sorry Autumn over and done with for now ... Not sad to see you go! 

[Don]

 *Stormforce~beka*

What's the betting we will all get excited about winter prospects come autumn, only for it to be yet another farce?!