Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[Day 10]

 Spah1

It's a notable shift though, too hard not to ignore.

The latest WRF still looks fine however.

[frosty ground]

 

big push for a warmer weekend for the GFS 6z it was 50/50 on the 0z now looks like 5/95

[Iceaxecrampon]

 Spah1 That’s further away from the South East

[Thunder Snow]

I expect a good shift south now

[Rob 79812010]

Exciting I think for some tomorrow. Joe mentioned the forecast not picking up the shield effect. Tomorrows snow will miss Manchester I'm sure. 

A lot of the forecasts keep talking about getting colder through Feb and into March. The Easterly's not really of the cold type from what I can see. Maybe late in the month. 

[Jackski4]

When does the next WRF come out? I’m worried now also there’s or much talk of Harlem?

Edited February 6 by Jackski4

[Joe Bloggs]

06z WRF is very promising. The high res 2km model won’t come into range until tomorrow though. 
 

In terms of snow depth at midday Thursday, we’re looking at a very small slither immediately to the west of the Pennines which is snow free, as well as around Morecambe Bay and North Cumbria. Everywhere else in the NW has a covering, including the coast, around 3-4cm in most places, more on higher ground. 
 

I’m almost certainly clutching at straws, but the surface wind vector Thursday is ENE’ly early hours then veering direct E’ly through the day. I’m guessing this specific direction will have an impact on the specific areas that are affected by the shield and may be less impactful than a SE’ly or ESE’ly. 

WRF shows a very limited shield area, western parts of Greater Manchester for example are shown to get lying snow. 
 

 

Edited February 6 by Joe Bloggs

[Chris.R]

Latest WRF not much different. there does seem to be less precipitation though and there is a deeper warm layer on Thursday night. 
Raw data for Wigan below. 
 

Meteociel - Prévisions météo fines WRF heure par heure neige pour Wigan ( Grande-Bretagne )

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Prévisions météo gratuites et précises à 3 jours heure par heure pour Wigan ( Grande-Bretagne ) basées sur le modèle WRF. Graphiques horaires de températures et pluie.

 

Edited February 6 by Chris.R

[Day 10]

 Chris.R

How do you change location on it?

 Chris.R

It's ok, done it

[Rob 79812010]

 Joe Bloggs   I get the broader principle of the shield. How and why it affects specific areas differently I'm not sure. Any knowledge of this I'd love to hear about!

[Day 10]

The latest Met Office run which updates the apps hourly has this, the front is definitely slowing up as we edge nearer.

Edited February 6 by Day 10

[Joe Bloggs]

 Rob 79812010 same! Wish I knew more about it. 

[Joe Bloggs]

 Day 10 is the meto map the UKV, or something different? 
 

anyway this is the 09z picture for Thursday. A very narrow shield area, especially around Stockport and east Manchester. 

[Jackski4]

 Day 10 is this a bad thing though? As long as it does indeed reach us could be slow moving

[Iceaxecrampon]

 Day 10 

Slower drizzle then. Lovely  

 

[Dark Horse]

 Joe Bloggs great right over this area by the looks of it. That's it then definitely not getting excited.

[Day 10]

 Joe Bloggs

Modelling systems

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Numerical models are at the heart of our forecasts and products as well as much of our research and development.

 Jackski4

That's if it reaches us, nervy evening runs coming up.

Edited February 6 by Day 10

[Geordiesnow]

 Dark Horse

This Manchester snow shield is definately an odd phenomena but at least Manchester can make up for it when we do actually get the cold convective airmass.

Shame the rain shadow affect will be impacting on things here also. I must be the only member who has not seen a decent covering of snow this winter(at least 3CMs or more) with missing out on the snow streamer in December and the PPN 3 weeks ago only arriving right on daylight hours and even then it was never consistent in intensity so we had no chance really before it turned back to rain.

Anyways it will be interesting too see how this system develops but the fact it looks like a snow turning back to rain system does again make it feel a bit worthless but nevertheless if it's heavy snow falling out of your window then it's interesting whilst it lasts.

[alr1970]

Of course, as it's just rain today the shield is right out of action, tipping down here. At least my new garden pond is getting filled up.

[Had Worse]

 Geordiesnow  as myself and @WillinGlossopfeel guilty about your plight,  please accept this delivery. 

Unfortunately. We are unable to dispatch it until Thursday evening as we are waiting a delivery to our Pennine warehouse.

[Day 10]

ECM 6z

[Miamay]

A miserable day here with plenty of rain 

[Thunder Snow]

 Day 10 can't see the front getting anywhere near me, I expect a gfs backtrack by 12z or 18z

[carl1980]

[Day 10]

 Thunder Snow

There are 2, the second one looks better for you by which time will be rain down here.

Edited February 6 by Day 10