Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[Winter Hill]

 Day 10

The same posters every time. Just constantly willing into their backyards. 
save that for the regionals !!! 

[Jackski4]

 Winter Hill And the mods do nothing 

[Scuba steve]

I don’t bother with that thread for all the reasons described

[Day 10]

Not far off a very cold setup moving forward here at 120.

[Jackski4]

 Day 10  I love how you’re saying that yet everyone in the mad thread is having a breakdown? Why is this though is it purely because it’s better for the north or because they don’t even know what they’re looking at…?

[severe snowstorm]

 Scuba steve Its quite ridiculous in there right now, I had to double check I hadn't wandered into a regional forum by mistake.

[Day 10]

 Jackski4

The above ties in with the potential cold moving in from the east as per Met.

11th - 20th

UK long range weather forecast

Remaining unsettled initially with further rain and hill snow across the far N, elsewhere a mixture of sunny intervals and rain showers. Thereafter a trend toward more settled, but likely cold conditions is favoured with snow showers tending to focus on eastern coasts. Elsewhere, a decent amount of dry weather, but with some hard overnight frosts and a risk of ice. Again milder air may try to encroach from the Atlantic, bringing with it the usual risk of rain turning to snow as it encounters the cold air, but this very uncertain. Windy at times, especially in the E at first, with a notable wind-chill. Temperatures generally in the range rather cold to cold, especially across the north.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Tue 6 Feb 2024

[Jackski4]

 Day 10 In short, southerly bias again. 

[Scuba steve]

 severe snowstorm so true ,lol 

[Day 10]

 Jackski4

Exactly, I normally post in there but I've not bothered recently as don't see the point and I can see why some experienced members have moved on over the years.

I'm just going to focus in here from now on.

[The Northern Ramper]

 Jackski4 Southern bias, others not knowing what they are looking at and some  just here for the wind up.

[Day 10]

@Jackski4

Further ahead looks cold too.

Although there is still some uncertainty, conditions slightly more-likely to be drier and more settled overall with lighter winds, from a more N'ly or E'ly direction than usual. This increases the likelihood of cold conditions developing more widely with an enhanced risk of fog and frost, alongside wintry showers almost anywhere, but perhaps most-especially near E or N facing coasts. There is still a risk (albeit lower than climatology) of Atlantic frontal systems (and less-cold conditions) bringing rain across parts of the country now and again, especially the W/SW but this would likely bring a longer period of snow somewhere.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Tue 6 Feb 2024

[Chris.R]

The boundary layer is not a problem here it's the inversion above it. Once that gets close to 0 then it's dodgy but the air below it remains mostly below freezing. It's not your simple case of greater altitude = colder.

[Rob 79812010]

 Hoghtonwhite When they come from the south I've always thought they have to hit exceptionally cold air for snow at low levels. There could be other factors I guess buy its difficult to imagine widespread snow tomorrow. Not smelling it am afraid

[James M]

 Winter Hill

Classic rain shadow for the area. It happens quite often with south westerlies due to the welsh mountains and easterlies because of the Pennines. Unfortunate quirk of topography.

[Weather-history]

 

[Joe Snow]

There has been a slight shift south of the snow bringing the Midlands in on the snow on Thurs but still looking good for a period of wet snow for most, the system stalling even at first glance at the 12z’s. With a second pulse of snowfall perhaps affecting the north of the region into Friday. SW areas of the region probably doing best for chances of accumulating lower level snowfall, there will be a shadow over Gtr MCR but I think even that will be broken as the system moves north. 
 

Interestingly we’ve seen a shadow effect of sorts today persistent heavy rain, foul afternoon with surface flooding here in Cheshire yet looking lighter N MCR northwards on the radar ️ 

 

 

[Alexis]

The snowshield appears on pretty much every high res run, especially the accumulation ones.

I've seen them be accurate and I've seen no shield at all. Like all predictive tools they can be right and wrong.

[frosty ground]

 James M

 

only every has issue with south easterlies.

easterlies have delivered the best snow from my recollection 

[The Northern Ramper]

 frosty ground I was just going to say the same for my location.

[Winter Hill]

 frosty ground

 The Northern Ramper

Only South Easterlies for me. Easterlies do deliver for me but not as much as you Two. 
 

as for South Westerlies, when a front is coming up against embedded cold, not a issue, fortunately this area does not get the shield like Manchester 

[Mark_p]

The met office warning update tomorrow will be interesting it's all very knife-edge stuff as the deep dive video posted above implies. My thoughts are for disruption over the higher routes Pennine routes could be quite an event with elevation. I think they will keep the yellow warning for low-elevation land to cover their bases but will it be needed? A lot of this setup says cold rain to me or a mix of that and sleet/snow in heavier pulses imby. I'd be delighted to be wrong of course. I love battleground snow even though they are so rare now but there are winners and losers in such setups. As a caveat I cannot remember the last time I saw sustained midday frontal in this part of the world. In most winters daylight snow at all is rare. 

[Day 10]

 Weather-history

Some quite eye catching charts there!

10-19cm of lying snow for the Wirral from their hi-res model, not sure about that lol.

Interesting isotherm too.

They seem quite bullish about the medium term also.

[iand61]

 The Northern Ramper easterlies are usually pretty good for here and straight westerly’s also deliver providing the air source is cold enough but for different reasons, both are rare.

[James M]

 frosty ground

Aye South easterlies!

it’s more of an issue with organised fronts, showers seems to make it ok. Luckily Saddleworth tends to be right on the edge so we do ok from either setup. Going to my partners in Manchester though and it’s a different world. I remember several times we got a foot and while Manchester got a tiny dusting.