Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[iand61]

 Weather-history yeah the signs are there for one of the heaviest falls of widespread snow for several years and ironically it could come in one of least snowy winters.

Maybe something along the lines of January 2013 is coming where a heavy fall across the region was gone within a couple of days and given it coincided with me being in London for the weekend; the only snow I saw was on the Saturday morning news.

But apart from the late March BFTE blizzard, it was largely snow free even up here.

 

[Joe Snow]

MO automated has upgraded going for a couple of hrs of morning heavy wet snow tomorrow turning to sleet by lunchtime and rain by evening here in S Cheshire seems to be about right tbh. MO Text forecast looks underwhelming at first glance but still ok when you factor in how conservative the MO are likely to be about a battleground event. High ground should do well, lower ground maybe too for a time  but increasingly sleety and rainy from the south so transitional being the word of the day. 

Edited February 7 by Joe Snow

[Spah1]

Looks like East of the Pennines does best due to the East wind. Looking at the models west of the m6 looks to dry up throughout the day

Edited February 7 by Spah1

[Mark_p]

Let’s see what the met office go for this morning. I’d love to be a fly on the wall in their meetings. I’m still going for a grim cold rain/sleet day here. Car frosty this morning for the first time in a while. 

[Joe Bloggs]

FWIW, we’re now in the range of the high-res WRF 2km model. At 12z tomorrow it shows quite limited snow lying across the North West, best place to be away from high ground is the Wirral  .

Not expecting anything here. Interesting re. The METAR for Manchester @Weather-history , I bet there are historical events where the shield has failed for synoptic reasons, I doubt it will this time as the easterly is strong and heights are modest. 
 

Have a good day everyone! Will be an interesting event regardless. 

[cheshire snow]

Courtsey from our Norwegian friend Dennis in the mod thread tomorrow midday.

[cheshire snow]

An example of how useless the Apps are one is Northwich the other is Winsford,for those who don’t know the area it’s is approximately 3 miles apart a five minute drive.

[wrightc23]

 cheshire snow Very true, I'm midway between the two about 1.5 miles away from either and it's now showing heavy snow all morning on the MetO app. It was rain about an hour ago. I'm going to deduce a marginal event according to the app! 

[Alexis]

Apple weather app is the worst. "Moderate snow warning!(rain symbol)"

[Iceaxecrampon]

 Spah1

[Weather-history]

 cheshire snow

Talking about the text forecast have a look at this part

"Often windy and feeling cold."  This for Friday to Sunday

Now look at their own  charts

Does this look windy?

 

This is their FAX charts

 

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

 cheshire snow

Has he personally crayoned it in for us? Nice colours. Quite impressive

[cheshire snow]

 Weather-history I remember this one

it will be dry with heavy rain developing 

[Day 10]

 Joe Bloggs

The Wirral & parts of Liverpool have upgraded overnight Joe, it's by far our best setup, about a 1 in 10 year event. As others have said, the Met text forecast doesn't really match this mornings charts though from what I can see.

I'd say snowfall pushing in from about 7am in the south of the region, lasting until about lunchtime before gradually fizzling out.

The 2 main ones.

GFS

ECM

The snow then continues to push north turning a little more patchy as it does so, quickly followed by another heavier pulse which will fall as rain in the south of the region but snow further north, especially on the hills.

I think most of us will see the white stuff Thurs or Fri.

Thurs pm.

Fri early hours.

[Weather-history]

 cheshire snow

Wintry rain, isolated gales, widespread patchy showers, wintry coastal showers becoming confined to the coasts.......

 

[cheshire snow]

 Weather-history and another one wintry showers confined to the coast,spreading inland

there are a lot more.

[Joe Bloggs]

 Day 10 looks great for you

[Weather-history]

 cheshire snow

 

This was a beauty, issued at 4am on December 28 2020

"After a frosty start, southernmost parts may see some wintry showers early on, these quickly clearing south leaving largely dry conditions"

 

The reality

[Day 10]

 Joe Bloggs

I really do feel your pain with that shadow effect as the Wirral has many ways of avoiding snow too depending on the setup, that 5 baron years quite recently was horrible, chasing, posting, chasing, posting only to sit here with rain while pics come flying in of snow all around the region. I suppose it's swings and roundabouts with certain setups and certain parts of our region, the region has crazy localized weather at times. My fingers are crossed for you. We might still end up with rain yet, who knows.

Edited February 7 by Day 10

[Iceaxecrampon]

 Weather-history Sounds like Terriertime tomorrow

#characterbuilding

[Weather-history]

Interesting,  every single ECM ensemble has at least a slight snow cover at some stage for Manchester for tomorrow.

 

 

[cheshire snow]

No idea who Simon is but this a real kick in the plums.

[cheshire snow]

In other news here is the Harmonie for tomorrow I have no idea about this model though .

[Had Worse]

 cheshire snow Simon King probably. 

[NickyB]

 cheshire snow Carol Kirkwoods latest graphics are uninspiring for me tomorrow