Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[Chris.R]

I'm typing up a forecast/prediction for tomorrow. It's probably a bit too long and over complicated and it's more of a fun storm Christoph type thing (I'm not a professional like Kasim) but hopefully it will be at least a bit useful or  you can all laugh at me when it's way off the mark lol.

[Chris.R]

Oh dear just reading the last few pages a lot of pessimism in here. waiting for my 12Z data, I might have to redo my forecast.

[The Northern Ramper]

I’ve got tomorrow off now, I’ll be gutted if it’s a fail.  

[The Northern Ramper]

 Chris.R

Come on Chris give me some good news, Rochdale/Oldham border. 165m but 300 within walking distance.

[Joe Snow]

 Chris.R I always value @Kasim Awan& your insights for snowfall events - it’s never an easy task to get decent snowfall in this region but both of you do a more accurate job than the MO sometimes backed up by local/ local microclimate knowledge

 
 

Personally for my S Cheshire location at 65m asl I see a brief period of heavy wet snow/ sleet between 8am-12pm quickly turning to sleety rain then just plain cold rain. Would be great to see something more wintry but not sure this event will deliver even temporarily  as well as some first expected for lower ground, higher ground a different story.
We shall see though  
 

 

[severe snowstorm]

A much better day today than yesterday and definitely a chilly feel, temperature reached 5.7C. 

Some chopping and changing in the model output for tomorrow, as is to be expected, but I think I'll cast final judgment tomorrow after it's actually happened rather than before the event, as some seem keen to do.

Edited February 7 by severe snowstorm

[NickyB]

 Backtrack GFS looked great yesterday too but it was rather on its own.  I really hope it’s correct.

[Chris.R]

 The Northern Ramper you'll be in my East gtr Manchester area

I tried to do forecasts for specific locations but it got too long so decided to stick to larger areas

Will probably be another hour, tea first and have to look at the new data.

[Weather-history]

Manchester TAF has snow up to 4pm

Temporary
from 08 at 08 UTC to 08 at 16 UTC

Visibility: 1200 m

Broken clouds at a height of 300 ft

snow

Temporary
from 08 at 14 UTC to 08 at 24 UTC

Wind 18 kt from the East with gusts up to 30 kt

Probability 30% :

Temporary
from 08 at 16 UTC to 08 at 18 UTC

Visibility: 4000 m

Broken clouds at a height of 800 ft

light rain, snow, rain

[Chris.R]

 Weather-history that ties in nice with what I'm writing

Edited February 7 by Chris.R

[damianslaw]

 Chris.R I'm lowering my expectations so not to be disappointed. We've had two good falls so far this season, 12 inches 2 Dec, and nearly 4 inches 16 Jan. 

Edited February 7 by damianslaw

[The Northern Ramper]

 damianslaw I’d be happy for the winter after that Saturday fall you had.

[Dark Horse]

Just been sifting through the models for the snow accumulation and practically all have dropped the snow signal below about 200m really. Looking like a high ground event.

[Kasim Awan]

In general forecast amounts have increased over 300m and decreased on low ground. This due to a faster moving front which pushes in milder air quickly but as conducive conditions persist at elevation, above around 300m will benefit from the heavier precipitation associated with a more northerly track.

As it stands a spell of sleety precipitation within the shield Macclesfield to M6 with some brief wet snow with dustings possible above 200ft around the Wirral. This phase lasting 2-3 hours before a quick lift of the snow line to 250m+ and North East of Macclesfield forecast by around 2pm, and 200m+ North East of Oldham. To the East of the Pennines again brief accumulation to lower levels before the snow line rises to 200m+ through the afternoon. 

[Day 10]

 Dark Horse

NE Wales is the place to be tomorrow.

Flintshire.

[Joe Snow]

Latest MO take on tomorrow’s snow risk - a temporary 2-5cm covering below 200m is still highlighted. 

[Dark Horse]

 Day 10 Kinder too. Close to 24 hours of heavy snow there if anyone's interested in pitching a tent haha. Just be careful not to get blown right off the hill, it'll be an absolute raging blizzard  

Kinder Low (Derbyshire) weather

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Kinder Low 7 day weather forecast including weather warnings, temperature, rain, wind, visibility, humidity and UV

 

[Jackski4]

They’re all happy in the MAD thread again, easterlies, cold, SSW “booms” and all. I truly hope we do get some proper snow this winter, that lasts more than a day. Otherwise I’ll cry. And nobody wants that, right?

[Spah1]

Why is it always height dependent. 

This is my elevation. North facing surrounded by trees so it’s often a bit colder here than down the road. 
 

We’ll just have to see what tomorrow brings. 
 

Would still love to be up the M65

[Chris.R]

12Z data is worse, will have to redo forecast a bit.

[The Northern Ramper]

I’m now expecting a fail, hope to be surprised, things can change.

[captaincroc]

It's funny... When sliders are forecast they either slip south or they blow up more, ending up with milder air and a more northerly/mild track. They never seem to just 'be'. 

[damianslaw]

Who knows central lakes might be included in amber warning tomorrow morning. 

[Scuba steve]

Tbh I can’t say I was ever motivated by the upcoming faux snow event

[Day 10]

 Scuba steve