Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[Coilspring]

Signs for the white stuff still showing for next Thursday / Friday at the moment. 

[keithlucky]

 Coilspring Yes large  amount of snow Thursday especially Friday as cold air to the North meets warm air to the  South.

Edited February 3 by keithlucky

[keithlucky]

Looks like cold weather will win out according to the Met

[Pembroke Dangler]

Ironic that the only dry slot is right over Swansea and Gower couldn’t make it up that good old snow force field (Beacons) in full force  lol 

 

Edited February 3 by Pembroke Dangler

[Wetterfrosch]

Not quite the dreary day here as mentioned by the MetO - lots of cloud, yes, but not particularly low and a couple of times a considerable thinning of the clouds with blue skies shimmering through overhead. And the mild breeze is even drying my washing on the line nicely!

[snefnug]

1 minute ago, Wetterfrosch said:

Not quite the dreary day here as mentioned by the MetO

That’s cos drear is up here, where it’s werry werry drear!

 

on a different note.  My netweather used to be dark screen, now it’s Daz white.  Anybody remotely more techy than me know how to get back to dark screen?

[andymusic]

Met Office for end of this week into the weekend (could do with some grammar tidying up or maybe the forecaster is just excited at the wintry prospects)

 

Friday 9 Feb - Sunday 18 Feb

Cold air already established across the northern UK is likely to extend to all parts through next weekend. As it does so there is a risk of some significant snowfall for parts of the UK, perhaps central areas most prone to this as the but this aspect is very uncertain at this stage. Across the north cold throughout with snow showers tending to focus on northeastern areas while for the far south the period may start of with some rain and near average temperatures, before the cold air reaches here by the start of next week. Windy at times, especially so in some eastern areas where a notably wind chill is expected. Temperatures ranging from rather mild in the south at first, to cold, perhaps very cold in the north.

GFS 06z brings a very cold easterly into the model by the following week with snow showers/fronts regularly dusting the UK and Wales

Edited February 4 by andymusic

[andymusic]

southerly movements on the low for thursday again from arpege and ukmo

[Metwatch]

Back from a visit to see friends in Snowdonia this weekend and the thing I noticed is how dramatic the weather changes; from decently sunny and mild back home Saturday morning in the Midlands at almost 14°C, to rain and cloud around the border near Oswestry, and then fog (Or very low cloud below 250-200m) once reaching the edges of of Snowdonia, which lasted until Sunday early afternoon.

But the scenery never fails to amaze me on the every occasional visit even if it's raining / foggy!

Some photos:

Next to Llangedwyn Saturday, cloud becoming lower 

 

The mountain pass (B4391) between Bala and Pencraig which I think is called the Tanat Valley below, next to the Berwyn range.

 

Passing the Llyn Celyn, site of the Tryweryn flooding back in the 60s:

Once passing the Afon and approaching Ffestiniog Saturday, we entered the cloud. With the same road again reaching 450m high but further west, less surprising to enter the cloud.

 

The low level cloud boundary quite visible around Maentwrog even Sunday morning, no higher than probably 150m.

Passing through the Coed Y Brenin Forest Park Sunday afternoon the low cloud is breaking up later Sunday so the visibility improves. A drone and ground view:

 

And a glimpse of some golden light just outside Dolgellau yesterday evening while heading back home, with the low cloud much less of an issue:

Certainly quite interesting entering and exiting the very low cloud this weekend depending on elevation, which I assume forms by that warm humid airmass from the Atlantic further aided by the mountainous terrain! Sudden changes in short distances!

Edited February 5 by Metwatch

[andymusic]

yellow warning for snow out for some parts of Wales from the meto for thursday morning into friday morning

Edited February 5 by andymusic

[Loadsa2000]

to add to the above

The areas covered by the warning in Wales are: Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire, Gwynedd, Isle of Anglesey, Powys and Wrexham. The long-range forecast for the UK from the Met Office says that the cold air established across northern parts of the country will "extend to all parts" next weekend.

It adds: "As it does so there is a risk of some significant snowfall for parts of the UK, perhaps central areas most prone to this but this aspect is very uncertain at this stage. Across the north cold throughout with snow showers tending to focus on northeastern areas while for the far south the period may start of with some rain and near average temperatures, before the cold air reaches here by the start of next week.

[andymusic]

Latest beeb outputs puts mid to north Wales in the snow firing line for thursday/Friday also seemingly going with their ukmo model

[Wetterfrosch]

12 hours ago, Metwatch said:

Back from a visit to see friends in Snowdonia this weekend and the thing I noticed is how dramatic the weather changes; from decently sunny and mild back home Saturday morning in the Midlands at almost 14°C, to rain and cloud around the border near Oswestry, and then fog (Or very low cloud below 250-200m) once reaching the edges of of Snowdonia, which lasted until Sunday early afternoon.

But the scenery never fails to amaze me on the every occasional visit even if it's raining / foggy!

Glad you had a good trip to our neck of the woods. My American god daughter lived with us for a few years to learn Cymraeg and the image of low cloud and thick mist drifting over the hills and shrouding the mountains was always the one she was most amazed of and made a lasting impression that she took back home with her. Yes, we are very blessed being surrounded by such beauty! Living at the western edge of Eryri I had an amazingly decent day yesterday with a few bright spells and even late hazy sunshine. No such luck today though and now wondering if Thursday's snow will make it down to my level. Can't see it yet given the temperatures forecast but one never knows round here!?! To be more precise, falling sleet/snow yes but sticking for any length of time more uncertain, more likely to get an ice problem if skies clear.

Edited February 5 by Wetterfrosch
additonal comment

[keithlucky]

Snow line moving south as expected were snow may fall is hard to predict with east Wales favoured a.t.m.Looks like winter going to go out with a bang with all of UK seeing snow over the next 3 weeks,pretty snowy outlook all the way to 2nd week of March  as per Met Office outlook 

Edited February 5 by keithlucky

[Pembroke Dangler]

I’ll believe it when I see it but this has Swansea and some of the south in with a shout latest met office take on things 

 

[andymusic]

"Us mid-winter break comes to a crashing end Feb 10-March 20. Same thing for Europe."  Winter will hit back hard - J Bastardi - 5 straight years of warm Feb/Mar in Europe ends end Feb 10 on as coldest last part of winter since 2018 arrives in tandem with US chill down.

Edited February 5 by andymusic

[bradymk]

Could be a good event Thursday / Friday for some in mid and North Wales. Some very heavy precipitation with the strong temperature gradient. There is still some uncertainty with the track and elevation will help with accumulations as usual. Need a few more runs I think. Latest UKV has 50cm for some elevated areas in N Wales. Likely to be transient though especially for lower areas.

Not seeing anything at all southwards from a line around Builth Wells, but as to be expected. Not enough forcing from heights to the north for this low to be further south and be an all Wales event.

[Marcus_surfer]

Hopefully Wales will see some snow over the next few days. I'm off to finnish lapland for a week, where temperatures could possibly fall to -30°C on wednesday, thursday and friday night, theres no snow forecast however ive got a good chance of capturing the aurora borealis over the next week. Good luck with the snow guys!

[Snowyowl9]

 andymusic

I think the earth is drunk and wobbling because it seems to be affecting the computer models aswell.

I ve never seen a week like it on forecasting before..since countryfile..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGJm2aKulGA&t=30s

 

 

Edited February 5 by Snowyowl9

[Snowyowl9]

Huge contrast in temps,now the GFS has backtracked what a crazy week..

[andy989]

 Marcus_surfer enjoy, where abouts are you going there? I’ve been going there every year since 2009, got married there last year under the aurora. 

[andymusic]

latest - interesting

[andymusic]

gfs 12z also steady and maybe a tad further south

 

Edited February 6 by andymusic

[hmarkd1974]

 andymusic But will it come this far south? Im not sure. Most likely wet snow or sleet thursday but who knows :)

[andymusic]

 hmarkd1974 beeb and meto have moved things north but we wait to see - could well be further south yet!