Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[andymusic]

gfs 12z - storm still showing for a week tomorrow - cold embedded

[andymusic]

tonight's ecm now following the gfs

Edited February 15 by andymusic

[andymusic]

latest ecm

 

[Daniel_c150311]

Horrible weather between last night and yesterday afternoon, 63.4mm of rain fell since 4pm yesterday and 23mm of rain fell since midnight so I think that if I go on a walk later the river will be flooded, if it is then I’ll take pictures and post them later

[Loadsa2000]

And so it goes on not a dry day in feb so far

Rain Yesterday:21.8 mm

Storm Rain:143.2 mm

This Month:198.4 mm

Season Total:360.6 mm

18 rain days in February.

[Daniel_c150311]

the river by me looks like it had been flooding but it's gone back down, although in lower lying areas its flooding still but there's massive puddles of where it had been.

 

 

 

   

[andymusic]

next weeks offerings possibly

Edited February 18 by andymusic

[Daniel_c150311]

I think we have convection and possibilities of thunder later on in the red circles but  if you’re in the circles I wish you luck for later or now

[Wetterfrosch]

Can't help thinking that MetO were a bit premature, especially at such short notice, in cancelling their rain warning for North Wales. Although more rain fell in the south, my own rain gauge still collected 33 mm in 24 hours to 9 am, as did Capel Curig (34 mm - no surprise there!). Lake Vyrnwy also got 21 mm, Bala 14mm and even Aberdaron still 13 mm, all within the range of the original warning text. Can't wait for drier weather to arrive!

Updated: 10:12 (UTC) on Sat 17 Feb 2024

Further details

Rain will move east across England and Wales during Saturday afternoon and night before clearing southeast England on Sunday morning. With this rain falling on already saturated ground, impacts are more likely. Many places are likely to see 10-15 mm of rain, although 30-40 mm is possible over higher ground in western areas. There is a small chance that rain hesitates as it clears east on Sunday morning which may allow these higher accumulations to fall in a few places across central, southern and eastern England. What should I do? Check if your property could be at risk of flooding. If so, consider preparing a flood plan and an emergency flood kit. Give yourself the best chance of avoiding delays by checking road conditions if driving, or bus and train timetables, amending your travel plans if necessary. People cope better with power cuts when they have prepared for them in advance. It’s easy to do; consider gathering torches and batteries, a mobile phone power pack and other essential items. Be prepared for weather warnings to change quickly: when a weather warning is issued, the Met Office recommends staying up to date with the weather forecast in your area.

View full warning details and map view

Reason for update

Whilst rain is still expected across all of England and Wales later Saturday into early Sunday, the warning has been cancelled for much of north Wales and northern and western England as impacts are now less likely. The warning end time has also been brought forward.

[keithlucky]

Such weird weather patterns  ATM ,Winter isn't over until its over next weekend Storm approaching from the North.

[andymusic]

gfs 12z thursday

gfs then setting up for a northerly the following week

Edited February 18 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

Pretty consistent outputs ,Downdwellinh on strat warming is underway let's see what happens. 

[marclt]

 keithlucky glad I got the grass cut today!! 

[andymusic]

[marclt]

 andymusic we’ll keep our fingers crossed!  Not sure I can get excited about half a centimetre.  What are the temps looking like? 

[Crepuscular Ray]

 Dxnielwashere Nothing in the way of thunder the westernmost of your circles. After a gloomy morning, the afternoon became gloriously sunny, although out of doors, it felt a lot chillier than the 13.5 °C the thermometer was registering. 

[andymusic]

 marclt definitely gonna feel quite a bit chillier than of late from around thursday onwards

[keithlucky]

 marclt To early to say around  7c   by day, heavier bursts of pp will drive temperatures down plus elevation will help,Unfortunately the strength of the sun will cause rapid melt this time of year but snow should settle overnight in places.Almost March now traditionally our snowiest period in Wales.

[andymusic]

more snowy options from the gfs 18z

Edited February 18 by andymusic

[Marcus_surfer]

I'm back from Finland, you can see my photos and full post in the Nordic section!

 

[Daniel_c150311]

Thursday  looks like it will be at its warmest at midnight and temperatures  keep falling until the next day, might be feeling quite cold then and the possibility of snow? fingers crossed because I've had snow but it all melted overnight and it was barely even sprinkling,

 

 

   

[andymusic]

 Dxnielwashere latest gfs 12z prog snow for thurs/friday mainly mountains but in any heavier bursts could drop to lower levels

[Daniel_c150311]

 andymusic Probably wont happen here because we are just outside the valleys and from my house almost every winter you see snow up the valley and down here we get sleet or rain but fingers crossed...

[andymusic]

gfs 18z determined to give us some wintry entertainment at some point

[keithlucky]

 andymusic Beware of the the ides of March! Large strat warming coming .Imagine 7days of dry no rain lol.