Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[Snowyowl9]

2 air frost on the trot at -1.2c east wind today for a nice change and dry..5.5c

 

[Loadsa2000]

Definitely going to start rounding up the animals to feed my ark. 25th day on the trot for rain this month

Rain Today:11.0 mm

Rain Rate (/hr):0.00 mm

Rain Yesterday:4.0 mm

Storm Rain:236.2 mm

This Month:291.0 mm

Season Total:453.2 mm

25 rain days in February.

 

[andymusic]

GFS 18z showing a cracking reversal and scandi leading to shuddering cold and snow throughout the UK for March

[andymusic]

Pen Y Fan today Brecon Beacons

Edited February 26 by andymusic

[andymusic]

This coming Friday

Edited February 27 by andymusic

[snefnug]

 andymusic

more rain? Or snow?

[andymusic]

 snefnug potentially snow especially with a little elevation

[andymusic]

lovely reversal again showing on the gfs 12z - ssw

[keithlucky]

 andymusic Likes to Snow on St davids day! Heavy wintry showers could have sleet snow grapple anywhere.

Edited February 27 by keithlucky

[andymusic]

ECM 12z going the same way - classic easterly and cold

[andymusic]

some interesting charts for this coming weekend and Friday

 

[andymusic]

gfs 18z thursday night/friday morning wintry Wales

[CLH]

It feels highly unlikely

[andymusic]

Friday/Saturday

Edited February 28 by andymusic

[andymusic]

GFS 12z again a major reversal from around 8th March - ssw

Gem and Ecm all playing around with this same set up could be a very cold March

one plus though is that it may dry up finally!

Edited February 28 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

Disruptive snow for high ground central Wales North Wales.

[keithlucky]

Expect Yellow warning to go out on met office site for Friday 10cm possible over high ground.

[danthetan]

Looking at the latest fax charts they have that front alot further south than this morning. I would expect lying snow above 200m and falling snow below in heavier bursts even in south wales. If I lived on a hill in Central Wales I'd be very excited. As I'm in pembrokeshire preselis could do OK. 

[andymusic]

[Jackfrost]

Do we have the rarest of rarities - a snow scenario moving in our favour the closer it gets, instead of away from it?

As of now I'm a bit reluctant to guess at settling and depths as the whole thing is still firming up and is highly marginal, but I'd expect at the very least some persistent falling wet snow on Friday. Areas most likely to see this would be the Valleys, Mid and inland North Wales.

[andymusic]

Dancing Derek on tonight's beeb forecast above 200-300m 6cm-10cm very possible but in heavier precip could well be at a lower height

Edited February 28 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

 Jackfrost .looking good for you ,only problem quick melt due to stronger sun.

[keithlucky]

 andymusic yes several hrs of persistant snow  as LP pivots over Wales ,possible Amber Warning for high ground

[andymusic]

 keithlucky Meto - South Wales even

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Turning colder and more unsettled on Friday and Saturday, with heavy rain in some places. A risk of sleet and hill snow, possibly reaching lower levels briefly. Temperatures recovering Sunday.

[CLH]

I'll go with yellow warning, low impact.