SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

[snowblind]

Cold spell is off this morning, according to the MAD thread. I imagine it will be on again by this evening.

[snowblind]

Ok, so I was pretty bored yesterday and I was thinking about how we seem to be having much warmer nights in winter than we used to so thought I'd do a bit of research.

I used this excellent site which has records for Epping, it's about 30 miles from here closer to London but gives a good idea of the weather in Essex. It has daily records going back to 1979 but stopped adding data in 2013. After this I used my own, less accurate and comprehensive, records.

Epping Weather Site

WWW.SWANSTONWEATHER.CO.UK

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Weather Station information and weather records for Epping, Essex, UK, daily weather records from January 1979, links to other weather sites, weather diary., epping photograph, pictures of...

What I thought I'd do, in a not very scientific way, is check the first month in the year when the minimum temperature failed to fall below 10. Don't know why I picked 10 just sounded like a pretty mild night time minimum for winter.

So between 1980 and 1999 this occurred in

April 8 times

May 5 times

March 4 times

January twice

February once

But between 1990 and 2019 it occurred in

April twice

May twice

March twice

January 10 times

February 4 times

What immediately stands out is the January figure. The most common month for a minimum temperature of 10 degrees or above to occur has switched from April to January. 

Since 2020 this has already occurred in January twice. It won't happen this year but it was close, I recorded a minimum of 9 on the 23rd Jan.

Not sure what this proves except I need a more interesting job or perhaps that more mild air is making it to our shores in winter. I found it quite interesting though.

[lassie23]

 ChillyJuju i did a first aid course in funny turns but had a funny turn halfway through so didn't complete it Cold weather potential dumped this morning check, tears flowing in their Weetabix check

[snowblind]

 lassie23 It seems to depend more on whose posting in there rather than any actual changes in the models.

[lassie23]

 snowblind yes they pick what they want to comment on and ignore the rest lol

[Methuselah]

 lassie23 . . . As in 'blizzards on Day 10'.

[ChillyJuju]

 snowblind Glad someone else has noticed exactly this. The stats indicating the swap of the overnight temperatures in January & April is very interesting. I can only go on my experience of 'feels like' but have noticed that it's warmer more often in January. April has been colder with change of duvet not happening until at least the end of the month more often than not

[ChillyJuju]

 lassie23 hahaha

I was too busy yesterday to find enough time to catch up with the MAD thread so do appreciate the updates posted in here.

May go read today for the giggles as models have given naughty data for early today

[lawrenk]

 Methuselah In fairness, it’s been a cracking “day 10” winter. It’s just the countdown from there that’s been the problem.

[snowblind]

It's back on again but only for the north.

[Methuselah]

 snowblind The Great Ellon Blizzard of 2024 is nailed on!

[Big Dave]

Kaboom

[Jimmyh]

Please please give me some blinking interesting weather cold and frost wind and rain snow sleet anything. Having worked from home this dirty high is boring and naff. Oh to have 1inch of snow or sleet and proper stuff bored of this now 

[lassie23]

more runs are needed in the MOD thread aren't they tired of the runs, need to pass that lot some Imodium

[Dami]

i shouldn't be outside in a t-shirt and joggers. It's January. no cardie required.

madness. 

[alexisj9]

 Dami it has felt milder today here, but not that mild lol 

[Tn9]

there's not a lot going on really is there ,till valentines, then gfs only plays with it ,its caught in two minds ,and it seems to be slipping away on consistency, its like  it cant (high) slip from the north ,north west north east  ,the vortex   cant  muster a  straight northerly before the next is steaming in ,or the high repositions over bay of Biscay again,that seems our options ..A or B .  

[lassie23]

 Dami it was freezing today, i had to defrost my nose

[snowblind]

Been about 7 most of the day and felt cold in wind. Now it's 10 o'clock at night and the temperature is still rising, up to 10.7 now. Odd weather.

[alexisj9]

 snowblind Norwegian storms warm front.

[snowblind]

 ChillyJuju Don't swap the duvet anymore 4 tog all year round for us. Was just too hot under a 10 tog. Always have the window open as well. Last time we had a thicker duvet on was 2021 but that was because the heating was busted. Before that was during the 2018 BFTE. Maybe it's just a getting older thing. Used to swap every Autumn and back in the late spring but find in just too warm at night now.

[snowblind]

It was 10 degrees at 1 o'clock this morning. Now down to 3.4.

[snowblind]

Looks like my 10 degrees minimum benchmark could be hit in the next few nights. Both Friday and Saturday nights currently forecast minimum temps of 10.

[lassie23]

it's peasantly mild outside today

[Uxbridge90]

Lovely couple of days, sun beaming through the windows and feeling slightly spring-like, walking around the house in a t-shirt with the heating off as well. Glorious. Hopefully it continues and any cold stuff stays away unless it delivers an absolute dumping of snow!