SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

[TEITS]

Have to laugh at what I have just read on the BBC website. Apparently some schools in N Wales closed in advance due to the amber weather warnings. From what I gather all that is falling is cold rain.

What a different world we now live in as I vividly remember the times in the 1980s I had to walk to school in deep snow and a biting E,ly wind. Never forget the gigantic icicles hanging off the school roof in Jan 1987 and a teacher saying to us "If the heavy snow continues to fall we shall be sending you all home at lunchtime" When she said this it was a white out outside and must of been over a foot of lying snow. The max temps on this day was -7C I believe!!

[MAF]

Back in the 70's part of my uniform for primary school was shorts not trousers  

[snowblind]

 TEITS I remember sometime in 2000s in our region the forecast was for 15cms of snow. Greater Anglia cancelled all their trains and the BBC had reporters outside all across the region reporting on the snow except there wasn't any and all the reporters were just standing in the rain. I think they may have found half a cm of slush in Norfolk somewhere but that was it.

There was also an occasion in the mid 90s where the forecast was for 15cms of snow to fall pushing up from the south. I remember listening to the local BBC forecaster on the radio every hour who kept insisting the snow was coming despite nothing falling from the sky. All morning this happened until eventually early afternoon they said rest of the day mainly dry just bits and pieces of rain or drizzle. Didn't even mention the snow they forecast that didn't materialise. Almost as if they never forecast it in the first place.

[Methuselah]

We have sleet!

[Dami]

it be raining, it be

[pinball wizard]

 Methuselah party time

[lassie23]

it's snowing.................in Finland

[Froze were the Days]

Banging on about a decent SSW in the MAD thread now....they're like a dog with a bone.

[lassie23]

 Froze were the Days a decent one that will end this crappy winter and bring us an early spring

[Dami]

five feet of snow in march please, i have 2 dentist appointments -.-

[Dami]

 lassie23 yep and then to a too hot summer, which will go to another snowless winter. yummy.

[Methuselah]

Oh great; it's turned to heavy, cold rain! 

[lassie23]

 Dami and the pattern will repeat for a thousand years until Bedford becomes a desert. I almost wrote dessert instead of desert.

[lassie23]

 Froze were the Days that lot would chase a crisp packet in the wind

[Dami]

 lassie23 amen.

[TEITS]

 Froze were the Days I'm not having a go at those who use teleconnections but sometimes the acronyms SSW, MJO do grate on me. 

Let me put it this way. I would say on average we would see several occasions during the winter months when a SSW and MJO look favourable for a potential cold spell in the near future. Sometimes these positive signals will occur many times during the winter months.

Now lets look at what I have experienced since joining the forum. Feb 2005 cold spell, Dec 2009, Dec 2010, Jan 2013, Feb 2018. I haven't seen any significant snow falls or cold spells since 2018. So that's a hell of a lot of positive signals that resulted in sweet FA. I don't recall the 2009,2010 cold spells being predicted on here and appeared at +384 on the GFS and unusually counted down to 0. The Met O did predict these cold spells though as I remember many on here being puzzled by the Met O LRF mentioning well below average temps.

Still my own predictions are even worse. 

[Stroudley]

14.5mm of rain so far. Next lot incoming, looking at the radar...

[MAF]

9 minutes ago, Stroudley said:

14.5mm of rain so far. Next lot incoming, looking at the radar...

Next lot? but 1st lot hasn't finished yet here in London

[lawrenk]

First day of a weeks break from a snowy south Peak District (900 ft asl between Leek and Buxton)

[Tn9]

Well in 4 hours odd we have gone up 7c ...from 5c at 9am  to 12c at half 0ne ,what a front ..huh 

[Tn9]

1 hour ago, TEITS said:

 Froze were the Days I'm not having a go at those who use teleconnections but sometimes the acronyms SSW, MJO do grate on me. 

Let me put it this way. I would say on average we would see several occasions during the winter months when a SSW and MJO look favourable for a potential cold spell in the near future. Sometimes these positive signals will occur many times during the winter months.

Now lets look at what I have experienced since joining the forum. Feb 2005 cold spell, Dec 2009, Dec 2010, Jan 2013, Feb 2018. I haven't seen any significant snow falls or cold spells since 2018. So that's a hell of a lot of positive signals that resulted in sweet FA. I don't recall the 2009,2010 cold spells being predicted on here and appeared at +384 on the GFS and unusually counted down to 0. The Met O did predict these cold spells though as I remember many on here being puzzled by the Met O LRF mentioning well below average temps.

Still my own predictions are even worse. 

Maybe a lots changed TEITS,cant put my finger on it exactly but like you say ,it doesnt seem to matter what happens else where ,say SSW for example ,maybe one in four chance for us here a gooden that is ,we might have a couple of fleeting snow days out of it  before everything is swept away ,i think alot is  our position as country ,it dont help matters ,if you have a wavy jet ,its more likely straight a a die here ,full on and only time is early winter  or early spring ,because temp variations ,its def ( my opinion) to do with too  much temp difference it  will overide anything else to keep jet strong and over the  Atlantic is where its most likely to have a field day  ...:(

Edited February 8 by TN9

[lawrenk]

 TEITS I always remember something you said a few years ago now to the effect that, for all we had learned, there was still an “unknown” factor that influenced things that we just hadn’t figured out yet. A lot of truth in that I think.  

[Bogman]

Only snow I've seen this winter is looking at the pictures in other community groups. 

[Floatylight]

If that cold had of dug deeper... blimey we getting some rain atm..

[Methuselah]

 Floatyligh: If it rains any more it'll be enough to water down Keir Starmer's key policies. Oh, hang on?