Moans, ramps and banter

[Catbrainz]

 Scorcher
As a climate fan I shall give my thoughts. I’d say around 2200 a year. On par with a Balkans climate. Although even with non inflated sunshine figures Boston has impressively sunny winters for a wet coastal climate at 42N. 
 

 

 

[Catbrainz]

On another note I hope we are leaving the wet pattern we’ve had since October. GFS this morning has nothing terrible looking apart from a brief cut off low but that’s in far FI. 

[CryoraptorA303]

26 minutes ago, Pulpstar said:

In 1879, this wasn't breached till the 6th September 

1879 was an exceptionally cool year with the lowest annual max in the history of reasonable observations at 26.8°C in Norfolk. This must have been a depressingly chilly year with unusually low minima as well as maxima. Considering 8°C average was only reached in September, it's perhaps surprising that September wasn't the warmest (or least cool in this case) month of the year, unless the breach was very temporary before declining again.

[Paul]

Jo's latest forecast may be of interest - positive signs for some at least..

Dreaming of a Dry, Warm Weekend... Is It Possible?

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

The weather patterns are shifting, back to a more usual setup. Rain for the northwest and warmth with something drier for the southeast. Not as windy as last weekend either.

 

[CryoraptorA303]

 Catbrainz Looks like it. Barring a 2019 it looks like we have a Csb year ahead. With the current seasonals it wouldn't seem that implausible for the south coast and/or the SE to record less than 30mm in at least one month from June-September. In fact I think on the east Kent coast and perhaps part of the south coast and the Essex coast last year was actually Csb as June (and September on the east Kent coast and Essex coast) recorded less than 30mm in these regions, so it's really not getting that hard to see Csb in the SE quadrant anymore.

What would be something is seeing a Csa year in the SE. We would need to have a very long and hot heatwave in either July or August that also doesn't see a thundery break within the calendar month, so essentially a 1947, 1976, 1983 or 1995 but hotter. A big heat spike would of course help but this would be more likely to see a thundery breakdown. You'd have to rely on it being shoved quite far north. As both February and March were extremely wet with 100mm or more in the target area, any month that does achieve less than 30mm will automatically make this year Csx regardless of whether autumn is dry or not. The bigger challenge then this year would appear to be getting a long and hot enough heatwave to see daily means exceed 22°C for a calendar month, so again it'd have to be July or August. (Un)luckily, with global temps higher than at any point in recorded human history, this year would seem to be the best candidate for an attempt at this.

[ANYWEATHER]

 CryoraptorA303 What is Csb and Csa??

[CryoraptorA303]

Looking at the numbers, it appears that most of Kent, West Sussex, most of Hampshire, the entirety of East Anglia, eastern Lincolnshire, almost the entirety of east London, and even a large chunk of west Somerset/east Devon and the Devon Riviera all recorded less than 30mm last June. This would make 2023 a Csb year for a large chunk of the country as all of these areas recorded well over the required 90mm in their wettest months, either October, November or December.

Edited April 10 by CryoraptorA303

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Umpteen times now when forecasting of rain has been miles off, yesterday was meant to be the north and Scotland, but was over this area, today was meant to be a patchy mostly dry warm front, not a washout

Edited April 10 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Summer8906]

 Catbrainz I guess the difference with Boston is that it has a huge continent to its west, so the default wind direction is continental, not maritime.

Bostonians probably complain about damp, wet, gloomy, moisture-laden easterlies and southerlies in the same way we do SWlies, but easterlies and southerlies are perhaps not so common.

Edited April 10 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 Bristawl Si Here it's mostly been the bad (generally sunless and often damp) days though, with only the 1st, 6th and 9th decent so far. Sunshine I suspect is, so far, well below average and rain well above with active rainbands on the 2nd/3rd, 3rd/4th, and 4th/5th overnight and late on the 8th. Ironically, "Kathleen" was the driest of the various lows, producing little rain at all - very reminiscent of "Ophelia" from 2017, without the red skies.

Still it looks likely to be trending better.

Edited April 10 by Summer8906

[CryoraptorA303]

 Paul  Summer8906 That'll be the subtropical ridge making it's yearly sabbatical north; Atlantic depressions are now more likely to be deflected northeast and avoid most of England, which means here in the south we avoid the worst of the rain. Kathleen was a very deep low for the time of year, however we saw nowhere close to the same levels of rainfall that we saw in February and March and just got heavy wind instead. To get the kind of stormy, autumnal weather we've seen from October thru March you'd now need a really southern jet stream accosting the lows in, like what we saw in July 2023 and June 2012.

 I remember Atlantic 252 Rain is a hard thing to predict at the best of times, it'll rarely match the forecast with extreme accuracy. It does seem like forecasting accuracy has taken a total dumpster dive in recent times though.

[B87]

 CryoraptorA303 2018 was a Csa year in London.

[CryoraptorA303]

 B87 Really?

If 2018 was Csa, wouldn't 2006 have qualified as July 2006 was just as hot and dry? I'm sure one of the autumn months would've reached 90+mm?

Now that I think about it, could 2003 have qualified? August stayed really warm to outright hot even after the heatwave, and importantly dry. The SE & SC region saw an average of 18mm in August 2003 which would suggest London would've seen even less. September was also really dry in the SE quadrant, even more anomalously dry than August. Saying that, 2003 was dry literally all year, so perhaps no month saw more than 90mm, in which case if August reached 22°C daily mean it'd be Cfa.

If 2018 and 2006 reached it then wouldn't July or August 2022 have qualified the year for Csa? Surely one of them would've hit 22°C daily mean? Saying that, the two major heatwaves weren't in the same calendar month - Had Coningsby been in early July and the August 2022 heatwave in late July with all the other hot days inbetween then that would've easily been a Csa.

[B87]

 CryoraptorA303 2006 qualified as well. 2003 was Csb as August had a mean of 21.1c.

July and August 2002 both had 21.4c means.

Edited April 10 by B87

[Pulpstar]

 CryoraptorA303 YTD Temp in 1879 went below 8 C on 2nd December 1879.

I'd be staggered if this year dropped below 8C at all now. No year since 1879 has been below 8.

[ANYWEATHER]

Anybody please tell me what a Csb and Csa is??? Thx

[Mapantz]

 ANYWEATHER

Crop shop boutique and child support allowance

[Pulpstar]

Apologies, 2007 started off over 8 C in January, so my err "record" isn't right

[B87]

 ANYWEATHER Csa is hot summer Mediterranean. Csb is warm summer Mediterranean.

Currently the UK is Cfb which is temperate oceanic, though some parts are borderline Csb.

[Summer8906]

Damp with light rain today, wouldn't surprise me if this supposedly weaker system gives more rain than "Kathleen".

There is a general pattern that applies 9 times out of 10: if a warm front produces rain, the following mild air is very unlikely to produce significant sunshine.

This suggests my prediction that we're unlikely to see the sun until the weekend when the following cold front clears southeastwards may be correct.

Depressingly dull today too: April reverts to type, for now. However due to a pressure rise I suspect tomorrow and Friday will be merely cloudy rather than dull.

Edited April 10 by Summer8906

[In Absence of True Seasons]

"Back to clag, back to realityyy"

[Summer8906]

 In Absence of True Seasons Better than here, at least it looks bright-ish!

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 Summer8906 bright grey vs dark grey, hooray! 

[Summer8906]

 In Absence of True Seasons There is a difference, there's something about really gloomy weather which affects your mood, I find. Today is probably one of the worst days of the month so far, thanks to the lucky coincidence of most of the other frontal systems passing through during the evening and night. (Tuesday 2nd was the other worst day of the month so far as it too featured the frontal system arriving during daytime).

Which is why even if we don't see the sun until the weekend, the next couple of days are likely to be significantly less bad.

Edited April 10 by Summer8906

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 In Absence of True Seasons What's that blue?? ...