February 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[Daniel*]

36 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Its extreme on a par with Dec 2015 incidentally an El Nino year...

I don't agree, assuming Feb finished now it would be 1.6C above the record warmest (1990) at Heathrow. 

 

December 2015... practically 3C above second warmest 2023 closely followed by 1974. That was a level up I'd say while this month is still exceptional.

[Summer Sun]

8.7c to the 22nd

4.8c above the 61 to 90 average
4.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

 Daniel* Ok fair enough, shows how abnormal Dec 2015 was, this one feels more akin to Feb 98, the winter as a whole very similiar to 97-98 more than any other, a super el nino year.

[LetItSnow!]

 damianslaw Part of the reason (unscientific and just a hunch) why I have a hunch that we may see a mixed spring and poor summer akin to 1998 or 2007 (The latter year I don't believe was El Nino but had a similar pattern)

[Derecho]

 WYorksWeather Yesterday came in at 7.2C so quite a bit above the forecast I gave yesterday. 8.0C is definitely a possibility now, especially if the colder temps over the next 3 days have been overplayed.

[Scorcher]

The last two days are looking a lot milder now. The nights aren't looking that cold either. In this sort of setup you don't get the really still, completely clear nights that would allow temps to fall lower. There is enough of a breeze as well to keep the temps mostly above freezing overnight.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 7.9C +3.2C above normal. Rainfall at 95.5mm 146% of the monthly average.

After today a dry outlook unless the low tracks a further north than shown on the 12oz. Temperatures edging towards the other side to average this afternoons run. So not much of a drop to come.  Looking like a 7.5C to 7.7C finish. So the 2nd warmest finish on record for us and the 11th wettest on record. Winter is the 9th wettest on record here.

Edited February 23 by The PIT

[Roger J Smith]

EWP not to be outdone is also going to have a go at a new record, 117 mm had fallen by 21st, looks to be over 130 mm now, and the Sunday low is going to release a deluge on the southwest; while it's going to be fairly dry apart from that, could see EWP over 150 mm and closing in on third place 1923 (152.7 mm) or even second place 1773 at 158.6 (2020 recently set the record of 169.5 mm).

Full top ten can be seen in previous post about a page back now. 

Will adjust scoring again later, stewfox (166 mm) will move up to first place if and when we pass 148 mm. (Frigid next at 130 mm). 

[Metwatch]

2 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

the Sunday low is going to release a deluge on the southwest

Still some uncertainity with the track of the system; if it grazes the far south / south west would not add that much to the total. Either way, it is finally looking somewhat drier from now up to month's end, but no real signs of a long dry spell just yet. A much wetter February than even I expected, but 2020 looks to still have been a little wetter in comparison.

 

20 hours ago, Daniel* said:

December 2015... practically 3C above second warmest 2023 closely followed by 1974. That was a level up I'd say while this month is still exceptional.

Yeah for this February to be equivalant to December 2015, it would need to have a final CET of 9C or above. If this month ended like February 2021 or especially 2019, that might have been possible. Still difficult to know for sure if we will overtake Feb 1779 or not by 0.1 to 0.2C.

[WYorksWeather]

At this stage, probably worth doing some maths on the different scenarios for the final few days. Using two decimals, the CET is currently at 8.65. So, we go through the various scenarios.

To finish below 2nd place (7.49C or lower) would require a CET for the last 7 days of 3.8C.

To have a clear 2nd place above 1869 (target 7.55C to round to 7.6C) would require 4.1C.

To tie for 1st in one decimal, but 2nd in two decimals (target 7.85C to round to 7.9C) would require 5.4C.

To break the record in two decimals, but tie in one decimal (target 7.88C, rounding to 7.9C) would require 5.5C.

To break the record in both one and two decimals (target 7.95C to round to 8.0C) would require 5.8C.

To exceed 8C, without any rounding, would require 6.0C.

For higher values, ignoring rounding (e.g. taking 8.1C to mean 8.1000....), we have the following targets.

8.1C: 6.4C

8.2C: 6.8C

8.3C: 7.2C

8.4C: 7.7C

8.5C: 8.1C

I think any value below 7.5C is now very unlikely, as is anything above about 8.2C.

For today, I'm still having issues with weatherobs, but taking a rough guess, I'd expect a value of around 4-5C today.

 Derecho I think I've worked out why your number came out a bit low yesterday - Rothamsted didn't see it's temperature fall until around 10am, so it had a higher max than expected, around 10C.

Anyway, interesting to have these figures to look at, in particular because the 23rd and 24th are such important days from this perspective. They have to be cold, because after that there's not much scope to drop the CET very much, it will be a slow decline. Today and tomorrow are probably the only two days where a drop of 0.2C in one day is achievable.

 

[Daniel*]

50 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

For today, I'm still having issues with weatherobs, but taking a rough guess, I'd expect a value of around 4-5C today.

5C Rothamsted

4.7C Stonyhurst

5C Pershore 

[WYorksWeather]

 Daniel* Higher than expected from Derecho's ECM numbers again. Raises the risk of a record break considerably.

[snowray]

I would still be cautious, I notice we had some 0c temps around already earlier this evening presumably as clearer skies move westwards. I calculated that if we get some lower night temps (0-3c) in the next week even with relatively high day temps (5-8c) we could see a drop to around 7.8c.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 7.9C +3.2C above average. Rainfall 96.6mm 148.2% of the monthly average.

[reef]

Yesterday came in at 5.1C, so well above the prediction again (3.7C).

5.9C required for the remaining 6 days to beat the record, I believe.

Edited February 24 by reef

[Scorcher]

 reef It's going to be close but the last two days are now looking mild so that 5.9C looks very doable.

[WYorksWeather]

 reef We're at 8.50C exactly to the 23rd.

We have six days left. If we cover just the three record breaking scenarios, here is what I get as the requirement for the last six days.

To tie in one decimal, but below it in two, requiring a minimum of 7.85C, we need: 5.4C 

To break the record in two decimals, but tie it in one, minimum of 7.88C, we need: 5.6C

To break the record in both one and two decimals, minimum of 7.95C, we need: 5.9C

As for today, a finish in the 3-4C range is probably likely. Maxima today ended a little higher than forecast but last night's minima were in places a little colder, probably overall slightly higher than expected for the mean, but only by half a degree or so I would've thought.

There is a consistent trend, though, for temperatures to slightly over achieve, so it is possible we end up breaking it comfortably. However, under certain circumstances night-time cooling can be much greater than expected as we saw in the mid-January spell. Cloud amounts and winds by night will make a big difference.

Landing zone is probably 7.7C to 8.2C or thereabouts. Given previous history I'd probably say a record is more likely than not, but I don't think we can guarantee it yet.

 

[Bradley in Kent]

The extra leap year day might be the critical one 

[kold weather]

 Roger J Smith 126.7mm as of today, top 10 is absolutely nailed on now, its just how high up that ranking list we go. Tomorrows front is going to give decent rain but perhaps quite limited in area, then it will be all down to fronts from the west and exactly how quickly they come in on the 29th/1st.

 

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I personally think 1779's crown is teetering. It's going to be beaten (just). Reason being the models seem to not have a full grasp on this new climate era we are in. Feb was forecast to be cold and it's been quite the opposite.

If I had to place a bet on either 7.8C or 8.0C, I would put my chips right now on 8.0C. Weds 28th looks like it's going to pitch the CET up and not down and the 29th could have a double figure high temp too.

Edited February 24 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Daniel*]

quite cold today… 

Pershore 3.1C

Rothamsted 2.7C 

Stonyhurst 3.4C

= 3.1C

[snowray]

Tomorrow should be 8.275c so rounded up to 8.3c., quite exciting this.

There were some pretty low temps last night, noticed -3/-4c. Temps dropping away quite quickly again this evening ahead of tomorrows cloud and rain in the south.

[Polarwesterly]

The 29th looks a very mild mean, heading towards double figures. We might need the leap day to break the record lol.

Edited February 25 by Polarwesterly

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 7.7C +3.0C above average. Rainfall 96.6mm 148.2% of the monthly average.

[Scorcher]

 snowray temps are already going higher than forecast this morning though.

Seems to be a theme at the moment for nights to be colder than expected and maxima to be milder.

Probably a product of the rapidly strengthening sun in late February. The uppers aren't that cold really.