February 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

 Weather-history I do remember that yes. Loved Philip Eden 

You might enjoy this from 2008 from this very forum:

 

Edited February 26 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[dryfie]

 Weather-history  Weather-history I’ve explained the 0900 to 0900 day to the dog, and he didn’t tilt his head, so here goes:  When Met O opened 170 years ago the vast majority of observers were voluntary, preferring to sleep at night and have time to observe during they day.  They had thermometers which could give current temps, max temps (since last reset) and min temps (same).  There were thermographs available to give an ink on paper trace, not really accurate.  Time when the average Joe was available to take readings was therefore limited to nonsleep.  
The thermometers they read could give extremes since they were last reset, but not when.  During the wars more and more defence establishments (particularly airfields) were opened,usually 24/7, giving the possibility of manual observations whenever required. The past 50 years the use of electronics has made minute by minute observations possible.

So…..If we want a neat midnight to midnight reading we could go back to the 1920’s, giving about 100 years.  But, if we wish to extend the record period we have to continue with the 0900 to 0900 ‘C.  Whoops!  Towser just tilted his head. When did dogs start becoming “Rover”instead of “Towser”?

Edited February 26 by dryfie
Damn predictor!

[TillyS]

I might well be missing something but given a cold night last night and another one tonight I can’t see how the ancient record will be broken this time.

But I don’t mind betting it’ll be smashed sometime in the next decade.

[TillyS]

15 hours ago, Weather-history said:

a specific date is midnight to midnight

In space-time even that isn’t anything like as fixed as you’d might like to think.

[Weather-history]

 dryfie

The thing is, the Met Office had already tinkered with the CET, hence why I brought up the Manley CET post. Sadly, Philip Eden's climate.uk has gone from the internet. 

Edited February 27 by Weather-history

[TillyS]

36 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

tinkered with the CET

That’s a pejorative word to use. You may not like what the Met Office did but you surely understand why it was necessary?

You can’t leave intact historic weather stations if developments around those stations render them no longer reliable for comparative data.

Edited February 27 by TillyS

[Summer Sun]

8.0c to the 26th

4.2c above the 61 to 90 average
3.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[Derecho]

 Summer Sun  Thanks, a CET of 6.9C for the rest of the month is required to beat the record. EC00z has a mean of 6.9C for the last 3 days...

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

 Derecho Given the final two days of the month for Stoneyhurst and Pershore are forecasting 11C/9C on 28th and 10C/4C, it would a miracle if it dropped below 7.9C. 

My money is on an 8.0C finish.

[Derecho]

 BlueSkies_do_I_see The morning of the 28th drags down the CET a bit with it turning increasingly milder as the day progresses, however with yesterday's mean coming in higher then expected I believe the record will go. I've got 5.8, 8.7 and 6.2 as the estimated means for the last 3 days. The 29th will hinge quite a bit on the timing of the cold front, just like on the 23rd. However that mean also came in higher then expected.

It'd be interesting to see how exactly the Met Office record the CET, it seems to be 0900 to 0900 max+min / 2 but going by the weatherobs data there are still some differences.

Annoyingly the EC tables on meteociel only have 6h increments, whilst the GFS pretty much always runs too cool anyway.

[Don]

34 minutes ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

it would a miracle if it dropped below 7.9C. 

[Daniel*]

It should drop 0.1C today and stay there I can’t see it being stuck at 8C we’re probably looking at a very tiny difference with warmest.  

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 7.4C +2.6C above normal. Rainfall 96.8mm 148.5% of the monthly average.

[Rheidolinflood]

Pershore minimum temp last night -3 C. That will not help beating the February record.

[Derecho]

 Rheidolinflood It must have been Pershore college that was used because the 0900 to 0900 CET from yesterday according to the Meto was 4.8C. The minimum from this morning won't come into play for todays mean too much. It was already up to 2.6C by 9am this morning. 

Edited February 27 by Derecho

[Roger J Smith]

EWP at about 140 mm now, will add 10-15 mm more by end of Feb to finish about 3rd or 4th overall. 

I have adjusted scoring table to 156 mm for an end result, a few scores changed and all but one average error gained another 8 mm from last table's 132 mm setting. (24/3 = 8, everyone in contest so far is given three errors, you get error of consensus + 5 mm if you don't play; you need to be in to get points however). It is not quite official yet but stewfox (166) will probably edge out Frigid (130) and those were the two highest forecasts so all other ranks are already set. I will be third although currently in second until we have a value over 146. 

I could probably post CET-EWP results today but not sure yet what rank Shillitocettwo will have for a 9.0 C punt that could be second or third, but possibly fourth to about twelfth depending on what final value is. Congrats to syed2878 who is sitting on a sure winner at 8.1 C. (third highest forecast was 7.4 C). This beats the feat of LG back in Dec 2015 when he went 9.0 for a (then CET legacy) 9.7 finish (it was since adjusted to 9.6 in v2.0). I looked back a while ago and recall that record Apr 2011 had one or two close forecasts as well, don't recall who but I think one or two were above the result. We had a larger group error in march 2013 than any other contest. 

[Roger J Smith]

 

Combined CET and EWP contest scoring for Feb 2024

_ based on 7.8 C (confirmed) and 150 mm _ 

___ to be adjusted as final values are confirmed ... 

 

Ranks _ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (Order of entry) ___ combined ranks, order (top 25)

 

01 _ 55 _ 8.1 __ 40.0 _ syed2878 ( 25 ) _______________ 56 ___t24th best combined 

02 _ 05 _ 7.4 _ 121.0 _ SLEETY ( 23 ) __________________06 ____ best combined

03 _ 09 _ 7.3 __ 92.0 _ IRememberAtlantic252 ( 2 ) ___12 ____ 5th best combined 

04 _ 54 _ 7.3 __ 40.0 _ Wade ( 10 ) ____________________58

05 _ 22 _ 7.2 __ 80.0 _ matt stoke ( 22 ) _______________27 ___ 9th best combined 

06 _ 03 _ 7.2 _ 125.8 _ Roger J Smith ( 51 ) ____________09 ___ 2nd best combined 

07 _ 04 _ 7.1 _ 122.0 _ Summer18 ( 18 ) ______________ 11 ___ 4th best combined 

08 _ 17 _ 7.0 __ 84.0 _ Polar Gael ( 8 ) _________________25 ___ 8th best combined 

09 _ 01 _ 6.9 _ 166.0 _ stewfox ( 13 ) __________________ 10 ___3rd best combined 

10 _ 49 _ 6.9 __ 51.0 _ rwtwm ( 24 ) ___________________ 59

11 _ 12 _ 6.8 __ 91.0 _ Emmett Garland (21) __________ 23 ___ 7th best combined 

12 _ 36 _ 6.7 __ 67.0 _ snowblind ( 14 ) ________________48 ___t20th best combined 

13 _ 40 _ 6.7 __ 60.0 _ WYorksWeather ( 33 ) __________53 ___ 23rd best combined  

14 _ 53 _ 6.7 __ 45.0 _ Weather Observer ( 48 ) _______ 67

15 _ 02 _ 6.6 _ 130.0 _ Frigid ( 6 ) ______________________17 ___ 6th best combined 

16 _ 51 _ 9.0 __ 49.0 _ Shillitocettwo ( 11 ) ____________ 67

17 _ 27 _ 6.5 __ 78.0 _ Feb1991Blizzard ( 44 ) _________ 44 ___t11th best combined  

18 _ 32 _ 6.2 __ 73.0 _ snowray ( 4 ) ___________________ 50 ___22nd best combined  

19 _ 14 _ 6.2 __ 86.0 _ Steve B ( 12 ) ___________________ 33 ___10th best combined 

20 _ 38 _ 6.2 __ 65.0 _ methuselah ( 16 ) _______________58

21 _ 26 _ 6.2 __ 79.0 _ ScottD ( 17 ) ____________________ 47 ___t18th best combined 

22 _ 23 _ 6.1 __ 80.0 _ Leo97t ( 27 ) ____________________ 45 ___t14th best combined 

23 _ 33 _ 6.0 __ 73.0 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 34 ) __________56 ___t24th best combined  

24 _ 34 _ 5.9 __ 72.0 _ Reef ( 32 ) _______________________58

25 _ 21 _ 5.9 __ 80.0 _ dancerwithwings ( 43, 2.5 ) _____46 ___t16th best combined 

26 _ --- _ 5.8 __ --- --- _ Summer Sun ( 28 ) ______________

27 _ 56 _ 5.8 __ 33.0 _ Summer Shower ( 42 ) __________83

28 _ 43 _ 5.7 __ 59.0 _ catbrainz ( 31 ) __________________71

29 _ 29 _ 5.7 __ 75.0 _ Stationary Front ( 46 ) __________ 58

30 _ 16 _ 5.7 __ 85.0 _ Somerset Girl ( 55 ) _____________ 46 ___t16th best combined 

31 _ --- _ 5.7 __ --- --- _Mark Bayley ( 60 ) ________________

(28)(28)_5.7 __ 75.0 _ Consensus ________________________56 (t24)

32 _ 13 _ 5.6 __ 88.0 _ Weather26 ( 5 ) _________________ 45 ___t14th best combined 

33 _ 11 _ 5.6 __ 92.0 _ Mr Maunder ( 36 ) ______________ 44 ___t11th best combined 

34 _ 50 _ 5.5 __ 50.0 _ The PIT ( 20 ) ____________________84

35 _ 24 _ 5.5 __ 80.0 _ DR(S)NO ( 30 ) ___________________59

36 _ 25 _ 5.5 __ 80.0 _ weatherforducks (L1-1) _________ 61

37 _ 10 _ 5.4 __ 92.0 _ chilly milly ( 19 ) _________________47 ___t18th best combined 

38 _ 37 _ 5.4 __ 66.5 _ summer8906 ( 37 ) ______________75

39 _ 06 _ 5.4 _ 105.0 _ Metwatch ( 53 ) _________________ 45 ___t13th best combined 

40 _ 08 _ 5.3 __ 94.0 _ February1978 ( 57 ) _____________ 48 ___t20th best combined 

(41)(28)_ 5.2 _ 75.0 _ 1994-2023 average _______________69 

41 _ 30 _ 5.2 _ 75.0 _ davehsug ( 53 ) ___________________ 71

42 _ 31 _ 5.2 _ 75.0 _ J10 ( 57 ) __________________________ 73

43 _ 44 _ 5.1 _ 59.0 _ summer blizzard ( 55 ) ____________87

(44)(34)_ 5.0 _ 72.4 _ 1991-2020 average _______________78

44 _ 47 _ 5.0 __ 55.0 _ Norrance ( 45 ) __________________ 91

45 _ --- _ 5.0 __ --- --- _ damianslaw ( 47 ) _______________

46 _ 19 _ 4.9 __ 82.0 _ noname_weather ( 52 ) _________ 65

47 _ 35 _ 4.8 __ 70.0 _ Don ( 50 ) ________________________82 

 

48 _ 42 _ 4.7 __ 59.6 _ Bobd29 ( 1 ) _____________________ 90

49 _ --- _ 4.7 __ --- --- _ Typhoon John ( 3 ) _______________

50 _ 45 _ 4.7 __ 56.0 _ seaside60 ( 26 ) __________________95

51 _ 48 _ 4.6 __ 52.0 _ virtualsphere ( 15 ) ______________ 99

52 _ 28 _ 4.6 __ 75.0 _ Shaunado ( 41 ) __________________80  

(53)(37)_ 4.4 __ 66.5 _ 1981-2010 average ______________90

53 _ 41 _ 4.4 __ 60.0 _ mulzy ( 38 ) ______________________ 94

54 _ 18 _ 4.0 __ 83.0 _ jonboy ( 29 ) ______________________72 

(55)(38) _ 3.9 __65.5 _ average of all data _______________ 93

55 _ 39 _ 3.9 __ 65.0 _ daniel* ( 39 ) _____________________ 94

56 _ 46 _ 3.8 __ 55.0 _ Neil N ( 40 ) ______________________ 102

57 _ 52 _ 3.4 __ 48.3 _ baddie (using 2013) ( 7 ) _________ 109

58 _ --- _ 3.3 __ --- --- _ Kentish Man (49) _________________

59 _ 15 _ 3.2 __ 85.0 _ Jeff C ( 9 ) _________________________ 74

60 _ 20 _ 2.8 __ 82.0 _ Godber 1 ( 59 ) ____________________80

61 _ 07 _ 2.3 _ 100.8 _ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 35 ) __________ 68

 

60 on time forecasts, and one late by one day, 61 total __ consensus (median) 5.7

========================

EWP forecasts in order 

166_stew .. 130_Frig .. 125.8_RJS .. 122_sum18 ... 121_SLE .. 105_Met .. 100.8_KW .. 

 94_Feb78 .. 92_IRem, cm, MrM .. 91_EG .. 88_wx26 .. 86_Ste .. 85_Jeff, sg .. 84_PG .. 83_jon ..

 82_non, godb .. 80_dww, matt, leo, DR(S), ducks^ .. 79_ScottD .. 78_Feb91 .. 75_Shaun, SF, dave, J10

 75.0_94-23 .. 73_snowray, MIA .. 72.4_91-20 .. 72_Reef .. 70_Don .. 67_snowblind ..

 66.5_sum8906 .. 66.5_81-10 .. 65.5_alldata .. 65..meth, dan* ..

 60_WYork, mul .. 59.6_bob .. 59_cat, sb .. 56_sea .. 55_NN, Norr .. 52_virt ..

 51_rwtwm .. 50_PIT .. 49_Shil .. 48.3_bad ... 45_WxOb .. 40_Wade, syed .. 33_SumSh

Edited March 1 by Roger J Smith

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

This one's going to the wire. It's dropped to 7.8C

[Summer Sun]

7.8c to the 27th

4.0c above the 61 to 90 average
3.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[Derecho]

So just some stuff I found on the CET series.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/releases/HadCET_v2_guidance_notes.pdf

The above documentation confirms it is Rothamstad, Pershore College and Stonyhurst.

Here is also the paper about the construction of the CET series

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/Parker_etalIJOC1992_dailyCET.pdf

This bit does seem to confirm that the maxima and minima obs have been taken up to 9am since 1877.

However what confuses me is that the max and min CET yesterday came out at 8.2C and -0.7C respectively. The minimums yesterday at Rothamstad, Pershore College and Stonyhurst were 1.7C, 2.6C and 3.8C respectively all recorded at 9am yesterday morning.

So they are too mild but the minimums the earlier in the night at hourly points were -0.1C, -0.8C and -0.6C at these 3 sites.

So it must be the minimum from the previous night up to 9am and the maximum on the day up to 9pm... that can be the only explanation...

[Metwatch]

1 hour ago, Derecho said:

However what confuses me is that the max and min CET yesterday came out at 8.2C and -0.7C respectively. The minimums yesterday at Rothamstad, Pershore College and Stonyhurst were 1.7C, 2.6C and 3.8C respectively all recorded at 9am yesterday morning.

A lot of info there to wrap my head around but interesting the papers you linked!

It's certainly not the easiest of tasks to accurately predict what each daily CET figure will be, checking what the daily update is every late morning that's the quickest option of course without doing any calculations. Personally adds more to the fun to the anticipation of what the daily value could be, but with a little more uncertainty!

Anyways back to the present and I think there is a chance now that February 1779 might keep its record, still very close between that and this month!

Just a quick look back at my entry, and the only part saving it from being a total bust is going for a relatively wet month but even then, it's going to be at least 25-30mm too low! Should be finishing close to 145mm.

Edited February 28 by Metwatch

[Roger J Smith]

Perhaps the confusion about where they found -0.7 C for a daily in for 27 Feb can be explained by the supporting paper not explaining procedure, I suspect it is actually as follows: readings are taken at 9 a.m. and 9 p.m. of extremes, the lowest value to 0900h of date (in this case 27 Feb) begins at 9 p.m. the previous day (26 Feb) and the value is then checked at 9 p.m. (in case 27 Feb) for the unlikely possibility that a lower value has occurred after 9 a.m., which could happen if colder air arrived after 0900h. If not lower then the first of the two obs determines the daily min. The procedure for max is the opposite, a reading is taken at 9 p.m. which captures a max on most days, then the next one at 0900h following day captures overnight rises in temperature that are applied to the previous calendar day. 

Just from observing dates of low mins in real time, especially in warmer months with shorter nights, you would always see the lowest values on the day before they actually occurred if the min observation period was 0900h to 0900h, and not on the day that they did occur (around 0400 to 0600h on a summer morning and about 0700 or 0800 even in winter, more frequently than at 0900).  In any case I think the daily mins are taken from a period that is staggered 12h (earlier) relative to the interval of the daily max. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 7.3C +2.5C above normal. Rainfall 97mm 148.8% of the monthly average.

[dryfie]

For crying out loud.  I’ve tried to explain, to no avail, that in the past readings were taken just once a day, at 0900.  Therefore the readings taken were the max and min over the past 24 hours, no attempt being made to allocate them to 2 x 12 hours, as that would be based on assumptions, not fact.  Some sites still use this convention, so all must.  Towser understands, and is now sat in the corner whimpering with despair.  Suggest not contributing to this forum until you’ve passed the 11+!

Edited February 28 by dryfie
Adding advice

[WYorksWeather]

In terms of where we're at, we're at 7.833C. The record is 7.871C.

To round to 7.9C, for a one decimal place tie (target is 7.85C): 8.1C

For a technical record break (to finish above 7.871C): 8.4C

To finish at 8.0C in one decimal (target 7.95C): 9.6C

I think the 8.0C rounded finish is now impossible. However a one decimal place tie but just below in two, or a technical record break but tied in one decimal, are both possibilities.