February 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[Roger J Smith]

 

CET averages and extremes for February

 

The following data include all CET values from 1981-2023. Warmest 15 in bold type. Middle 14 values italic and coldest 14 are underlined. 

The data have been converted to v2.0.1.0 in each case. The ties mentioned are only ties in one decimal, and the actual ranks in the CET v2.0.1.0 table are based on second decimal values. After the group at 6.3 C (incl 2014), only 1981-2022 values are listed without ranks, earlier years could be tied, until colder than 1.2  C when the longer term records are once again mentioned for coldest values. Only 1986 was colder in the recent past. 

 

12.8 ... warmest Feb day (mean temp) 4th Feb 2004

 7.9 ... warmest month of Feb 1779

 7.5 ... second warmest month of Feb 1869

 7.3 ... third warmest month of Feb 1990 

 7.2 ... tied fourth warmest month of Feb 1794, 1998

 7.1 ... tied sixth warmest month of Feb 1903, 1945

 7.0 ... eighth warmest 2002

 6.9 ... tied ninth warmest 1867, 1872, 1961, 2019, 2022

 6.8 ... tied 14th warmest 1739, 1914, 1926

 6.7 ... tied 17th warmest 1702, 1750, 1997

 6.6 ... 20th warmest 1790

 6.5 ... tied 21st warmest 1815, 1918, 1995, 2011, 2020, 2023

 6.4 ... tied 27th warmest 1732, 1734, 1817, 1826, 1846, 1850

 6.3 ... tied 33rd warmest 1822, 1868, 2014

 6.2 ... 2000, 2017

 6.1 ... most recent 1943

 6.0 ... 1989, 2007

 5.9 ... most recent 1946

 5.8 ... most recent 1980

 5.7 ... most recent 1966

 5.6 ... 2008

 5.5 ... most recent 1974

 5.4 ... 1992, 2004

 5.3 ... 1999, 2021

 5.2 ... most recent 1977 ... warmest 30-year average 1994-2023, 5.20

 5.1 ... 2016 ... also 2001-2023 average (5.14)

 5.0 ... most recent 1789 ... 1991-2020 average (4.97 v2.0.1.0, was 4.9 in CET legacy)

 4.9 ... 1988  

 4.8 ... 1982

 4.7 ... 1993

 4.6 ... most recent 1976

 4.5 ... most recent 1975

 4.4 ... most recent 1962 ... 1981-2010 average

 4.3 ... 2001, 2005, 2009 ... and 1971-2000 average (was 4.2 in CET legacy)

 4.2 ... 2015 

 4.1 ... most recent 1960 ... 1901-2000 average (was 4.0 in CET legacy)

 4.0 ... 2012  ... and mean for 1801-1900

 3.9 ... 2003, 2006 and mean for 1659-2023 (all 365 years) -- 3.92  

 3.8 ... most recent 1934 ... 1961-1990 average (unchanged from CET legacy) and mean for 1701-1800  

 3.7 ... most recent 1951

 3.6 ... 1987

 3.5 ... 1984

 3.4 ... 2013

 3.3 ... most recent 1924

 3.2 ... 1994

 3.1 ... 2018

 3.0 ... 1981

 2.9 ... 2010 ... and mean for 1659-1700

 2.8 ... most recent 1978 ... 2.7 most recent 1818, 2.6 most recent 1954

 2.5 ... 1996 and coldest 30-year mean (1670 to 1699) ((2.55 rounded down (2.547)) 

 2.4 ... most recent 1847, 2.3 most recent 1901

 2.2 ... 1985

 2.1 ... most recent 1821, 2.0 most recent 1721, 1.9 most recent 1968

 1.8 ... 1983

 1.7 ... most recent 1860

 1.6 ... t42nd coldest 1991

 1.5 ... most recent 1902 ... 1.4 most recent 1814 ... 1.3 most recent 1979 (30th coldest)

 1.2 ... 1755, 1955 t28 coldest

 1.1 ... in v2.0.1.0, the "missing CET" closest to the median of all months (would be 27th coldest if it happens before anything colder)

 1.0 ... 1663, 1665, 1670, 1691, 1969 t23rd coldest

 0.9 ... 1845, 1917 t21st coldest

 0.8 ... 1795 (20th coldest)

 0.7 ... 1827 (19th coldest)

 0.6 ... 1853 (18th coldest)

 0.5 ... 1695, 1697, 1698 (t15th coldest)

 0.4 ... 1765, 1785, 1838, 1929 (t11th coldest)

 0.1 ... 1942 (tenth coldest)

 0.0 ... 1692 (ninth coldest)

-0.2 ... 1956 (eighth coldest)

-0.7 ... 1963 (seventh coldest)

-1.0 ... tied fifth coldest month of Feb, 1684 and coldest in recent years 1986

-1.6 ... fourth coldest month of Feb 1740

-1.7 ... third coldest month of Feb 1855

-1.8 ... second coldest month of Feb 1895

-1.9 ... coldest month of Feb 1947

-2.9 ... running CET by 23rd 1855 (!!)

-4.4 ... running CET by 14th 1895 (!!) (was -3.0 tied with 1855 to 22nd)

-6.3 ... coldest week 6-12 Feb 1895

-8.8 ... coldest Feb day (mean temp) 9th Feb 1816

(1947 was like Dec 1890 only the coldest running CET on last day of month; the coldest January 1795 somewhat similar as 1814 colder 10th-24th and again 27th-28th, tied 29th, but 1795 did hold top spot 4th-9th, 25th-26th and 30th-31st). 

Before 1895 (8th-21st) and 1855 (tied 22nd, coldest 23rd-27th), 1956 (1st-4th) and 1830 (5th-7th) held the lead in coldest running Feb CET. The coldest leap year February with daily data was 1956 but 1740 was considerably colder. 

For warmest running Feb CET, it was 1923 (1st-2nd), 2004 (3rd-8th), 1869 from 9th to 22nd, then 1779 led on 24th, was tied with 1869 on 23rd and 25th and took again 26th-28th. As neither were leap years, 1872 had the highest running mean for 1st-29th (6.9 C) but would have been easily beaten out if 1st March of 1869 or 1779 were the 29th of Feb. 

Interesting fact: longest interval with no subzero February is not recent, it was the 114 consecutive years 1741 to 1854. The current streak is 37 years (1987 to 2023). But other longer streaks include 1685 to 1739 (55 years, but 1692 was 0.0, so 47 years if you count 1693 to 1739), 1856 to 1894 (39 years), and 1896 to 1946 (51 years). The shortest return of a subzero February was 1963 relative to 1956, and closely followed by 1956 relative to 1947. The longest absence of a 2.0 or colder February is recent, 1994 to 2023 (30 years). Before that, the longest absence of a 2.0 or colder February was 18 years (1796 to 1813) ... however 2.0 was the lowest value between 1699 and 1739, so the longest streak of Februaries failing to go below 2.0 is that interval of 41 years. It will be intact until at least 2034. 

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Enter your forecast in this thread before the end of the day Wednesday 31st January,

or with increasing time penalties before the end of the day Saturday 3rd February. Good luck!

______________________________________________________________________________________

 

EWP Precip contest

 

Predict the EWP for February (in mm). Same deadlines as above --

 

Wettest Feb ... ... ... 169.5 mm (2020)

former record was ... ... 158.6 mm (1833)

former recent max was 143.2 mm (1990)

1994-2023 avg ... 75.0 mm (now highest running 30-yr avg) _ despite 2023 being dry, 1993 was 2.7 drier.

1993-2022 avg ... 74.9 mm (was highest running 30-yr avg)

____ 1922-1951 avg ... 71.9 mm (was a secondary max)

1991-2020 avg ... 72.4 mm

1981-2010 avg ... 66.5 mm

all data 1766-2023 avg 65.5 mm 

1777-1806 avg ... 54.3 mm (lowest running 30-yr avg)

___ ___ 1959-1988 avg 60.6 mm (secondary min)

__ recent min ... 13.8 mm (1993) _ 2023 was 16.5 mm

Driest Feb ... ... ... ... .. 3.6 mm (1891)

____________________________________________________________

2023 _16.5 mm ... ... 2022 _104.4 mm ... ... 2021 _ 78.9 mm ... ... 2020 _169.5 mm ... ... 2019 _ 54.2 mm

2018 _ 52.8 mm ... ... 2017 _ 72.0 mm ... ...  2016 _ 80.0 mm ... ... 2015 _ 59.3 mm ... ... 2014 _136.7 mm

2013 _ 48.3 mm ... ... 2012 _ 32.1 mm ... ... 2011 _ 81.2 mm ... ... 2010 _ 87.2 mm ... ... 2009 _ 60.9 mm

2008 _ 40.2 mm ... ... 2007 _111.6 mm ... ... 2006 _ 57.7 mm ... ... 2005 _ 46.2 mm ... ... 2004 _ 50.2 mm

2003 _ 38.8 mm ... ... 2002 _ 115.1 mm ... ... 2001 _ 105.3 mm ... ... 2000 _ 95.1 mm ... ... 1999 _ 50.0 mm

======================================================================

Combine your predictions and edit up to deadline as you wish.

__ Good luck !! __

[WYorksWeather]

Too early to guess for me! As usual though, here's my chart of the progression of February CET in visual form:

Dark blue - 30 year average

Cyan - 10 year average

We see a clustering of some very mild Februaries in recent years, and a distinct lack of any cold ones (nothing below 2.5C this century). You could argue that given the general increase in the trend line, we're overdue either an exceptionally mild February that breaks all records (say around 8C CET), or a significantly colder than average one. I wonder if anyone will be brave enough to go for either of those!

After this year, 1994 (3.2C) will drop out of the 30-year average, and 2014 (6.3C) will drop out of the 10-year average. Hence, the 30-year average will more than likely rise after February 2024 is in the books, but the 10-year average is odds-on to drop.

@Roger J Smith - going back before the daily data, is there a longer streak than the current one without a February below 2.5C? Your stat for 2C is interesting, but of course is harder to eyeball from my chart!

[Roger J Smith]

1996 was 2.5 so I guess we could say 1992 to 2023 (32 years) had no Feb below 2.5, while 1997 to 2023 (27 years) had no Feb below 2.6 (or 2.7). So looking at those intervals, I find that previously the longest such intervals were these 14 years: 

No Feb below 2.5 _ 1903 to 1916 (14 yrs) _ 2nd 1801 to 1813 (13 yrs) ______ 32 yrs 1992-2023

No Feb below 2.6 _ 1903 to 1916 (14 yrs) _ 2nd 1801 to 1813 (13 yrs) ______ 27 yrs 1997-2023

(also no Feb below 2.7, as coldest for each interval was 2.8, in 1907, and in 1808) _ coldest 1997-2023 was 2.9

The longest before daily data (1772) were only 10 and 9 years for these:

No Feb below 2.6 _ 1756 to 1764 (9 yrs) _ lowest was 3.8 in 1758,60,64

No Feb below 2.5 _ 1699 to 1708 (10 yrs) _ lowest was 2.5 in 1700, 1701

So the answer would be no, and with these exceptions intervals of even six years between 2.5 or lower Febs are rare.

The only (other) intervals with no value below 2.5 (2.5 can be included) longer than six years are 

(1699-1708) see above

1712-1720 (9 yrs) __ 2.5 1717 coldest

1732-1739 (8 yrs) __ 3.1 1736 coldest

(1756-1764) see above

1786-1794 (9 yrs) __ 3.4 1786 coldest

(1801-1813) see above

1831-1837 (7 yrs) __ 3.4 1832 coldest

1866-1872 (7 yrs) __ 2.8 1870 coldest

1876-1885 (10 yrs) _ 3.1 1879 coldest

(1903-1916) see above

1920-1928 (9 yrs) __ 3.3 1924 coldest

1930-1941 (12 yrs) _ 2.5 1930, 2.6 1936,40 coldest

1948-1954 (7 yrs) __ 2.6 1954 coldest

1970-1978 (9 yrs) __ 2.8 1978 coldest

(1992-2023) see above

 

[Bobd29]

Hi 4.7C and 59.6 mm for me please.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7.3C and 92mm, SW'lys dominating

[Dancerwithwings]

6.6c for me and a 80mm

[stewfox]

10 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

 

CET averages and extremes for February

 

The following data include all CET values from 1981-2023. Warmest 15 in bold type. Middle 14 values italic and coldest 14 are underlined. 

The data have been converted to v2.0.1.0 in each case. The ties mentioned are only ties in one decimal, and the actual ranks in the CET v2.0.1.0 table are based on second decimal values. After the group at 6.3 C (incl 2014), only 1981-2022 values are listed without ranks, earlier years could be tied, until colder than 1.2  C when the longer term records are once again mentioned for coldest values. Only 1986 was colder in the recent past. 

 

12.8 ... warmest Feb day (mean temp) 4th Feb 2004

 7.9 ... warmest month of Feb 1779

 7.5 ... second warmest month of Feb 1869

 7.3 ... third warmest month of Feb 1990 

 7.2 ... tied fourth warmest month of Feb 1794, 1998

 7.1 ... tied sixth warmest month of Feb 1903, 1945

 7.0 ... eighth warmest 2002

 6.9 ... tied ninth warmest 1867, 1872, 1961, 2019, 2022

 6.8 ... tied 14th warmest 1739, 1914, 1926

 6.7 ... tied 17th warmest 1702, 1750, 1997

 6.6 ... 20th warmest 1790

 6.5 ... tied 21st warmest 1815, 1918, 1995, 2011, 2020, 2023

 6.4 ... tied 27th warmest 1732, 1734, 1817, 1826, 1846, 1850

 6.3 ... tied 33rd warmest 1822, 1868, 2014

 6.2 ... 2000, 2017

 6.1 ... most recent 1943

 6.0 ... 1989, 2007

 5.9 ... most recent 1946

 5.8 ... most recent 1980

 5.7 ... most recent 1966

 5.6 ... 2008

 5.5 ... most recent 1974

 5.4 ... 1992, 2004

 5.3 ... 1999, 2021

 5.2 ... most recent 1977 ... warmest 30-year average 1994-2023, 5.20

 5.1 ... 2016 ... also 2001-2023 average (5.14)

 5.0 ... most recent 1789 ... 1991-2020 average (4.97 v2.0.1.0, was 4.9 in CET legacy)

 4.9 ... 1988  

 4.8 ... 1982

 4.7 ... 1993

 4.6 ... most recent 1976

 4.5 ... most recent 1975

 4.4 ... most recent 1962 ... 1981-2010 average

 4.3 ... 2001, 2005, 2009 ... and 1971-2000 average (was 4.2 in CET legacy)

 4.2 ... 2015 

 4.1 ... most recent 1960 ... 1901-2000 average (was 4.0 in CET legacy)

 4.0 ... 2012  ... and mean for 1801-1900

 3.9 ... 2003, 2006 and mean for 1659-2023 (all 365 years) -- 3.92  

 3.8 ... most recent 1934 ... 1961-1990 average (unchanged from CET legacy) and mean for 1701-1800  

 3.7 ... most recent 1951

 3.6 ... 1987

 3.5 ... 1984

 3.4 ... 2013

 3.3 ... most recent 1924

 3.2 ... 1994

 3.1 ... 2018

 3.0 ... 1981

 2.9 ... 2010 ... and mean for 1659-1700

 2.8 ... most recent 1978 ... 2.7 most recent 1818, 2.6 most recent 1954

 2.5 ... 1996 and coldest 30-year mean (1670 to 1699) ((2.55 rounded down (2.547)) 

 2.4 ... most recent 1847, 2.3 most recent 1901

 2.2 ... 1985

 2.1 ... most recent 1821, 2.0 most recent 1721, 1.9 most recent 1968

 1.8 ... 1983

 1.7 ... most recent 1860

 1.6 ... t42nd coldest 1991

 1.5 ... most recent 1902 ... 1.4 most recent 1814 ... 1.3 most recent 1979 (30th coldest)

 1.2 ... 1755, 1955 t28 coldest

 1.1 ... in v2.0.1.0, the "missing CET" closest to the median of all months (would be 27th coldest if it happens before anything colder)

 1.0 ... 1663, 1665, 1670, 1691, 1969 t23rd coldest

 0.9 ... 1845, 1917 t21st coldest

 0.8 ... 1795 (20th coldest)

 0.7 ... 1827 (19th coldest)

 0.6 ... 1853 (18th coldest)

 0.5 ... 1695, 1697, 1698 (t15th coldest)

 0.4 ... 1765, 1785, 1838, 1929 (t11th coldest)

 0.1 ... 1942 (tenth coldest)

 0.0 ... 1692 (ninth coldest)

-0.2 ... 1956 (eighth coldest)

-0.7 ... 1963 (seventh coldest)

-1.0 ... tied fifth coldest month of Feb, 1684 and coldest in recent years 1986

-1.6 ... fourth coldest month of Feb 1740

-1.7 ... third coldest month of Feb 1855

-1.8 ... second coldest month of Feb 1895

-1.9 ... coldest month of Feb 1947

-2.9 ... running CET by 23rd 1855 (!!)

-4.4 ... running CET by 14th 1895 (!!) (was -3.0 tied with 1855 to 22nd)

-6.3 ... coldest week 6-12 Feb 1895

-8.8 ... coldest Feb day (mean temp) 9th Feb 1816

(1947 was like Dec 1890 only the coldest running CET on last day of month; the coldest January 1795 somewhat similar as 1814 colder 10th-24th and again 27th-28th, tied 29th, but 1795 did hold top spot 4th-9th, 25th-26th and 30th-31st). 

Before 1895 (8th-21st) and 1855 (tied 22nd, coldest 23rd-27th), 1956 (1st-4th) and 1830 (5th-7th) held the lead in coldest running Feb CET. The coldest leap year February with daily data was 1956 but 1740 was considerably colder. 

For warmest running Feb CET, it was 1923 (1st-2nd), 2004 (3rd-8th), 1869 from 9th to 22nd, then 1779 led on 24th, was tied with 1869 on 23rd and 25th and took again 26th-28th. As neither were leap years, 1872 had the highest running mean for 1st-29th (6.9 C) but would have been easily beaten out if 1st March of 1869 or 1779 were the 29th of Feb. 

Interesting fact: longest interval with no subzero February is not recent, it was the 114 consecutive years 1741 to 1854. The current streak is 37 years (1987 to 2023). But other longer streaks include 1685 to 1739 (55 years, but 1692 was 0.0, so 47 years if you count 1693 to 1739), 1856 to 1894 (39 years), and 1896 to 1946 (51 years). The shortest return of a subzero February was 1963 relative to 1956, and closely followed by 1956 relative to 1947. The longest absence of a 2.0 or colder February is recent, 1994 to 2023 (30 years). Before that, the longest absence of a 2.0 or colder February was 18 years (1796 to 1813) ... however 2.0 was the lowest value between 1699 and 1739, so the longest streak of Februaries failing to go below 2.0 is that interval of 41 years. It will be intact until at least 2034. 

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Enter your forecast in this thread before the end of the day Wednesday 31st January,

or with increasing time penalties before the end of the day Saturday 3rd February. Good luck!

______________________________________________________________________________________

 

EWP Precip contest

 

Predict the EWP for February (in mm). Same deadlines as above --

 

Wettest Feb ... ... ... 169.5 mm (2020)

former record was ... ... 158.6 mm (1833)

former recent max was 143.2 mm (1990)

1994-2023 avg ... 75.0 mm (now highest running 30-yr avg) _ despite 2023 being dry, 1993 was 2.7 drier.

1993-2022 avg ... 74.9 mm (was highest running 30-yr avg)

____ 1922-1951 avg ... 71.9 mm (was a secondary max)

1991-2020 avg ... 72.4 mm

1981-2010 avg ... 66.5 mm

all data 1766-2023 avg 65.5 mm 

1777-1806 avg ... 54.3 mm (lowest running 30-yr avg)

___ ___ 1959-1988 avg 60.6 mm (secondary min)

__ recent min ... 13.8 mm (1993) _ 2023 was 16.5 mm

Driest Feb ... ... ... ... .. 3.6 mm (1891)

____________________________________________________________

2023 _16.5 mm ... ... 2022 _104.4 mm ... ... 2021 _ 78.9 mm ... ... 2020 _169.5 mm ... ... 2019 _ 54.2 mm

2018 _ 52.8 mm ... ... 2017 _ 72.0 mm ... ...  2016 _ 80.0 mm ... ... 2015 _ 59.3 mm ... ... 2014 _136.7 mm

2013 _ 48.3 mm ... ... 2012 _ 32.1 mm ... ... 2011 _ 81.2 mm ... ... 2010 _ 87.2 mm ... ... 2009 _ 60.9 mm

2008 _ 40.2 mm ... ... 2007 _111.6 mm ... ... 2006 _ 57.7 mm ... ... 2005 _ 46.2 mm ... ... 2004 _ 50.2 mm

2003 _ 38.8 mm ... ... 2002 _ 115.1 mm ... ... 2001 _ 105.3 mm ... ... 2000 _ 95.1 mm ... ... 1999 _ 50.0 mm

======================================================================

Combine your predictions and edit up to deadline as you wish.

__ Good luck !! __

Feb 86 not Feb 87 surely re sub 0 Jan 87 was cold 

[Don]

31 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

6.6c for me and a 80mm

Winter's over..... 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, Don said:

Winter's over..... 

feel it is yes, exceptionally mild at times is my pick for next 4 weeks, maybe longer

[Dancerwithwings]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

Winter's over..... 

I know 6.6c ….I’m trying to tell *Mother Nature*  to have a reversal of fortune for us collective coldies…..if she ears …l’ll change my guess

[Don]

39 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

I know 6.6c ….I’m trying to tell *Mother Nature*  to have a reversal of fortune for us collective coldies…..if she ears …l’ll change my guess

You may have your work cut out as I don't think Mother Natures likes us winter cold seekers?!  Worth a try though! 

[WYorksWeather]

9 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

1996 was 2.5 so I guess we could say 1992 to 2023 (32 years) had no Feb below 2.5, while 1997 to 2023 (27 years) had no Feb below 2.6 (or 2.7). So looking at those intervals, I find that previously the longest such intervals were these 14 years: 

No Feb below 2.5 _ 1903 to 1916 (14 yrs) _ 2nd 1801 to 1813 (13 yrs) ______ 32 yrs 1992-2023

No Feb below 2.6 _ 1903 to 1916 (14 yrs) _ 2nd 1801 to 1813 (13 yrs) ______ 27 yrs 1997-2023

(also no Feb below 2.7, as coldest for each interval was 2.8, in 1907, and in 1808) _ coldest 1997-2023 was 2.9

The longest before daily data (1772) were only 10 and 9 years for these:

No Feb below 2.6 _ 1756 to 1764 (9 yrs) _ lowest was 3.8 in 1758,60,64

No Feb below 2.5 _ 1699 to 1708 (10 yrs) _ lowest was 2.5 in 1700, 1701

So the answer would be no, and with these exceptions intervals of even six years between 2.5 or lower Febs are rare.

The only (other) intervals with no value below 2.5 (2.5 can be included) longer than six years are 

(1699-1708) see above

1712-1720 (9 yrs) __ 2.5 1717 coldest

1732-1739 (8 yrs) __ 3.1 1736 coldest

(1756-1764) see above

1786-1794 (9 yrs) __ 3.4 1786 coldest

(1801-1813) see above

1831-1837 (7 yrs) __ 3.4 1832 coldest

1866-1872 (7 yrs) __ 2.8 1870 coldest

1876-1885 (10 yrs) _ 3.1 1879 coldest

(1903-1916) see above

1920-1928 (9 yrs) __ 3.3 1924 coldest

1930-1941 (12 yrs) _ 2.5 1930, 2.6 1936,40 coldest

1948-1954 (7 yrs) __ 2.6 1954 coldest

1970-1978 (9 yrs) __ 2.8 1978 coldest

(1992-2023) see above

 

Thanks very much for collating. Slightly odd how there are quite a few long  streaks with no year below 2.0C, but in the past a lot of years tended to dip below 2.5C. Just one of those statistical quirks I guess.

[Typhoon John]

I'll go with 4.7c for now

[snowray]

Might have to change this but for now I'm thinking mild, so 6.2c and 73mm please.

[Weather26]

5.6C and 88mm please

[Frigid]

Another mild February, no surprises there. Hopefully the signal switches back to cold in a weeks time. 

6.6C and 130mm. Thanks

[baddie]

February looks like it will start mild then turn cold, shades of Feb 2021 (or 2013 if the cold is less severe and more consistant)

Same CET and rainfall as 2013 please

Edited January 22 by baddie

[Polar Gael]

7.0°C and 84.0mm for me please.‹

[JeffC]

3.2C and 85mms please

[Wade]

I am going for 7.3C and 40mm so mild and dry like February 2023, only a bit milder. 

[Summer8906]

I'll hold fire for now, because even though the models are suggesting something like a 2022 rerun at the moment, there are a number of comments on the model thread and elsewhere suggesting something a little cooler may occur a few days into Feb. Will give it to the weekend and see if the models do start to show something drier, cooler and more anticyclonic by around Feb 5/6.

Edited January 23 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

On 20/01/2024 at 22:35, WYorksWeather said:

Thanks very much for collating. Slightly odd how there are quite a few long  streaks with no year below 2.0C, but in the past a lot of years tended to dip below 2.5C. Just one of those statistical quirks I guess.

Interesting that Februaries which I "thought" were severe were actually much less so, e.g. 1879 and 1940, the latter being surprisingly less severe than 1983, 1985, 1991 and 1996.

Quite shocking to see a 1.2C rise in Feb mean temp from 61-90 to 91-2020. I get the impression that the most profound effects of climate change in this part of the world are being felt in late winter, and February is perhaps the most anomalously mild month of the year compared to our old, classic climate. Gone is the old school textbook theory of "mild and wet in early winter, cold and dry in late winter" which would very often apply in the 1980s, even in the less snowy winters such as 1983/4 and 1987/8. The old adage "as the days grow longer, the cold grows stronger" is also generally completely false these days, with the exception of rare years like 2013 or 2018. If anything, late winter seems to be more extremely zonal these days than even early winter, though generally less wet as the jetstream moves north.

I wonder what the mean Feb temp for say 1977-96 would be? That 20-year period contained a good number of cold months, and only one month (IIRC) that was silly-mild.

Edited January 23 by Summer8906

[Shillitocettwo]

  Im going for a December 2015 of Februaries Lettucing on this one with an astonishing 9.0.C

 

  Little in the way of cold, a run of southwesterlies at first giving very mild low even mid teens days but then a 2019 style setup towards the end of the month pumping Saharan heat in on a High Pressure wiping the floor with various records and giving a new High of 23.C in the UK. Dry'ish' at 49mm.

[LetItSnow!]

Will hold back until month's end but I am anticipating a larger than normal chance of a warm February this year but there are some rogue members toying with something a little colder around the 4th so it's not a done deal.

[SteveB]

6.2c and 86mm please.