February 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

2.3C and 100.8mm please

[Mr Maunder]

5.6c and 92mm from me please.

MM

[Summer8906]

5.4 and 66.5, thanks.

Going for 1C milder than the 1981-2010 average: not spectacularly mild due to some hints of cold at times in the forecast. Precipitation could go either way by the looks of things so will go dead on the 81-10 average.

Edited January 31 by Summer8906

[mulzy]

4.4C and 60 mm please

[Daniel*]

This is really tough the month will begin exceptionally mild but I can see some cold weather perhaps most persistent of winter. I’ll go with 3.9C and 65mm thanks. 

[NeilN]

3.8c and 55mm

[Shaunado]

4.6C and 75mm

[SummerShower]

I'm going to have to bottle my 8.1 guess.  Thought it would be record breakingly mild.

Guessing 5.8 now.  Think it will be mostly mild but a couple of colder periods likely.

Rain unchanged 33mm

[Dancerwithwings]

On 20/01/2024 at 19:33, Dancerwithwings said:

6.6c for me and a 80mm

Methinks I’ll drop my CET guess to 5.9c….  EWP unchanged

Edited January 31 by Dancerwithwings

[feb1991blizzard]

6.5c and 78mm please.

Don't be fooled into thinking i am bailing my cold spell prediction. its just that i think the first 8 days are going to be so hideously mild (poss 11c+) and the deep cold may not arrive until 20th (if indeed it does)

Edited January 31 by feb1991blizzard

[Norrance]

5.0C  and 55mms please.

[Stationary Front]

Thinking very mild first half, perhaps going colder as the rest of the month heads towards March, so probably 5.7 with 75mm

[damianslaw]

February could well mirror January but in role reverse..A mild/ very mild opener becoming colder before mid month, with the cold theme holding thereafter.

5 degrees my guess. A marked north- south divide though, Scotland and far N England could see a much nearer average month or even below 61-90 average in very far north. Could be quite snowy in the north at times.

[Don]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

6.5c and 78mm please.

  

[feb1991blizzard]

 Don is that a shock emoji? - i did edit to add my reasoning, could be one of the most bizarre Februarys ever.

[Weather Observer]

6.7C and 45mm please.

[Don]

 feb1991blizzard I know you did Feb and the emoji's were tongue in cheek 

That said, I hope the CET comes in below 6.5C!

[Kentish Man]

3.3C thanks.

[Don]

I'm seeing possible shades of February 2005, which had a mild start but turned much colder during week 3 and remained cold through to the end of the month. 

That month had a CET of 4.3C, but with the best part of another two decades of warming, I will go for 4.8C and 70mm, please.

Any potential cold next month could be more potent than that in 2005, but I will err on side of caution and February will have a very similar CET to January.

Edited January 31 by Don

[Roger J Smith]

I could see there being a few colder days 11-15 Feb but overall an average of 7.2, with 125.8 for EWP. The winter over here has been a carbon copy of 1997-98, lots of rain instead of snow in ski resort areas.

Will have a table of forecasts by about 0200h, not going to work on it until the last second changes as it takes a lot of extra work to keep changing the order of entries (it's not the different forecasts, that's easy to change, but then you have to go into the table you have nearly ready to post and change order of entries). 

[Methuselah]

I tried to make sense of the latest iteration of the quote menu, but as it's changed umpteen times in the past few days, I haven't a clue as to what's going on. . . Other than to suggest 'shades of 50 million years BC'! 

Edited January 31 by Methuselah

[Don]

5 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

I could see there being a few colder days 11-15 Feb but overall an average of 7.2, with 125.8 for EWP. The winter over here has been a carbon copy of 1997-98, lots of rain instead of snow in ski resort areas.

That's not what I was hoping to see Roger and sounds like you don't think there is much chance of a colder second half to the month?

[noname_weather]

4.9C and 82mm

[Metwatch]

5.4°C and 105mm

The opening days look to be incredibly mild and by the 7-8th I imagine we'll get near to even a double figure CET, the Ukmo forecast for my location below in middle of CET zone:

Next week looks to be quite a deluge so that would add a lot to the rainfall total, and i've been under-doing my EWP guesses recently so will go wetter for this one. Second half of Feb little clue to what may happen but if it's colder then likely drier. It will need to take something truly cold from mid month to bring that CET down back to the averages through the month, which I can't see happening at the moment.

Edited January 31 by Metwatch

[Don]

Just now, Metwatch said:

5.4°C and 105mm

The opening days look to be incredibly mild and by the 7-8th I imagine we'll get near to even a double figure CET, the Ukmo forecast for my location below in middle of CET zone:

 

That's an interesting CET guess because if I remember correctly, following a very mild opening to the month, the first 10 days of February 2004 had a CET of 10.1C, I think.  It went on to see a much colder second half to the month and the overall CET was 5.4C!