February 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[Weather-history]

 Derecho

Apparently there were prayers for rain in Spain by May 1779. Seen a newspaper report saying it had not rained their for more than 4 months.

[Derecho]

 Weather-history And then by the next winter we got a very cold and cyclonic pattern instead! Wouldn't mind a repeat...

[North-Easterly Blast]

Regardless of what the last third of this month holds for us, one thing is certain, is that the 28 day period ending on this Saturday February 17th, is likely to record a CET very close to the all time 7.9 record for the calendar month of February.

[rwtwm]

I've done a very crude eyeball of the GFS for the next week. I estimate a CET of around 8.5 for the next 7 days, putting the rough running total by the 19th at 7.9ish.

I'm not sure that the last 10 days of the month are going to return a high enough value to keep the Feb record in sight. But I'd be intrigued to see how this impacts the winter 30 day record.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 rwtwm this february seems like the equivalent of December 2015 it really does.   

[Summer Sun]

7.6c to the 13th

3.8c above the 61 to 90 average
3.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[summer blizzard]

I would not compare this month to Dec 15 albeit mild. I do wonder if any winter has recorded two 7C months before though.

[Roger J Smith]

Following is a list of all 366 "record warm months" if the familiar calendar is not considered to be the only criterion. To read this chart, each entry is the year for which the 31-day interval ending on that date recorded the warmest 31-day average. I still use the familiar calendar to compile the list. As one example of how to read it, t e warmest 31-day "month" ending 24 Feb was in 1869. It would have begun on 25 January. 

* An asterisk accompanies 29 Feb which could only occur in leap years; if we look at all cases ending 29 February (LYD) or 1 March in non-leap years only, then 1779 takes that one (at 7.9). *

For all but the last entry in January, some of the days are in the previous Dec (so also in previous calendar year). The number of days in Dec is (31-n) where n is the date; so for example, for month ending 14 Jan (1975), 17 days are in the previous Dec (1974, Dec 15-31).

One minor deviation is that by considering only 31-day intervals, the four 30-day months (Apr, Jun, Sep, Nov) will not precisely reflect calendar month results but all four do involve records that match the calendar month year.

Note: table edited 21-26 Feb 2024

 

date __ JAN _ FEB _ MAR _APR _ MAY _ JUN _JUL _ AUG _ SEP _OCT _ NOV _ DEC

_01 __ 2016 _1916_1779_1957_2011_1833_1846_2006_1997_2023_2001_1994

________9.5 __ 7.4 __ 7.9 __ 9.3 _11.9 _15.3 _18.1 _ 19.7 _18.9 _17.0 _13.1 _ 9.8

 

_02 __ 2016 _1796_1779_1957_2011_1833_1846_2006_1997_2023_2005_1994

________9.3 __ 7.3 __ 7.9 __ 9.3 _11.9_15.5 _18.1 _ 19.6 _18.9 _16.9 _13.1 __ 9.8

 

_03 __ 2016 _1796_1779_1957_2011_1833_1846_2006_1997_2023_2005_1994 

________9.2 __ 7.2^__ 7.8 __ 9.4 _11.7 _15.4 _18.1 _ 19.6 _18.9 _16.8 _13.3 __ 9.8

 

_04 __ 2016 _1796_1779_1957_2011_1833_1846_1995_1997_2023_2005_1994

_________9.1 __ 7.2^__ 7.9 __ 9.6 _11.7 _15.4 _18.2^_19.6 _18.9 _16.6 _13.2 __ 9.8

 

_05 __2016 _1796,1834_1779_1957_2011_1833_1976_1995_1997_2023_2005_1994

_________9.1 __ 7.1^ __ 8.1 __ 9.9 _11.9 _15.3^_18.5 _19.6 _18.8 _16.5 _13.1 __ 9.6

 

_06 __2016_ 1990_1779_1957_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_2022_2023_2005_1994

_________8.9 __ 7.1 __ 8.2 __ 9.9 _12.0 _15.4 _18.8 _19.6 _18.8 _16.3 _13.1 __ 9.4 

 

_07 __ 2016 _1990_1779_1957_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_2022_2023_2005_1994

_________8.7 __ 7.1^__ 8.2 __ 9.8 _12.1 _15.5 _19.0 _19.6 _18.8 _16.2 _12.9 __ 9.4

 

_08 __ 2016 _2002_1779_1957_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_2022_2023_2005_1994

_________8.5 __ 7.2^__ 8.2 __ 9.7 _12.2 _15.5 _19.1 _19.5 _18.7 _16.0 _12.8 __ 9.3

 

_09 __ 2016 _2002_1779_1957_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_2022_2023_2005_1994

_________8.5 __ 7.4 __ 8.1 __ 9.6^_12.2^_15.6 _19.0 _19.4 _18.6 _15.8^_12.8 __ 9.2

 

_10 __ 2016 _2002_1779_2017_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_2022_2006_2005_1994

_________8.4 __ 7.6 __ 8.0 __ 9.6 _12.3 _15.7 _19.0^_19.3 _18.5 _15.8 _12.6 __ 9.1

 

_11 __ 2016 _2002_1998_2017_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_1947_2006_2005_1994

_________8.3 __ 7.8 __ 7.9 __ 9.5^_12.3 _15.7 _19.1^_19.4 _18.4 _15.7 _12.5 __ 9.2

 

_12 __ 2016 _2002_2019_2017_2011_1992_ 1976_1995_1947_2006_2022_1994

_________8.3 __ 8.0 __ 7.8^__ 9.5^_12.3 _15.5^_19.3 _19.4 _18.3 _15.5 _12.3 __ 9.2

 

_13 __ 2016 _2002_1961_2017_2011_1822_ 1976_1995_1947_1949_2022_1994

_________8.2 __ 8.0 __ 7.9^__ 9.5 _12.3 _ 15.7 _19.4 _19.4 _18.2 _15.5^_12.3 _ 9.3

 

_14 __ 2016 _2002_2019_2011_2011_1822_ 1976_1995_1947_1949_2022_1994

_________8.1^__ 7.9 __ 8.0^__ 9.6^__12.4 _ 15.9 _19.5 _19.4 _18.0 _15.2 _12.3 _ 9.0

 

_15 __ 1975 _2002_2019_1945_1893_1822_ 1976_2022_1947_1949_2022_1994

_________8.1 __ 7.8 __ 8.1 __ 9.8^_12.6 _ 16.1 _19.5 _19.5^_18.0 _15.2 _12.2 _ 8.7

 

_16 __ 1975 _2002_2019_1945_1893_1822_ 1976_1995^_1947_1949_2022_1994

_________8.1 __ 7.7 __ 8.2 __10.2 _12.8 _ 16.2 _19.6 _19.6 _17.9 _15.2 _12.1 _ 8.4

 

_17 __ 1975 _2002_2019_1945_1893_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1949_2022_1994

_________8.0 __ 7.7 __ 8.2 __10.3^_12.9 _ 16.2 _19.7 _19.7 _17.6^_15.1 _12.0 _ 8.4

 

_18 __ 1975 _2002,24_1990_1945_1893_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1949_2022_1994

_________7.9 __  7.7 __  8.3 __10.6 _13.1 _ 16.5 _19.8 _19.8 _17.5 _15.0 _11.9 _ 8.3

 

_19 __ 1975 _2024_1990_1945_1893_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1949_2022_1828

_________7.8 __ 8.1 __ 8.5 __10.7 _13.1 _ 16.8 _19.9 _19.9&_17.4 _14.9 _11.8 _ 8.5^ _ (& note below (Jul-Aug 1911))

 

_20 __ 1975 _2024_1990_1945_1893_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1949_2022_1828

_________7.7^__ 8.3 __ 8.6 __11.0 _ 13.1 _ 17.2 _20.0 _19.9 _17.3 _14.8 _11.6 _ 8.5

 

_21 __ 1916 _2024_1990_1945_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1949_2022_1828

_________7.6 __ 8.3 __ 8.7 __11.0 _ 13.3 _ 17.4 _20.0 _20.0 _17.2 _14.6 _11.3 _ 8.6^

 

_22 __ 1916 _2024_1990_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2016_1949_ 2022 _2015

_________7.7 __ 8.3 __ 8.7 __11.0 _ 13.6 _ 17.7 _20.1 _20.2 _17.0^_14.5 _11.1 _ 8.8

 

_23 __ 1916 _2024_1990_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2016,23_1949_2022_2015

_________7.6 __ 8.2^__ 8.6 __11.2 _13.8 _ 17.7 _20.0 _20.3 _16.8^_14.2 _10.9 _ 9.0

 

_24 __ 1916 _2024_1990_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2006,23_1949_2022_2015

_________7.6 __ 8.0 __ 8.6 __11,3 _14.0 _ 17.7 _19.8 _20.2 _16.7^_13.9^ _10.7 _ 9.2

 

_25___ 1916 _2024_1990_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2006_2001_2022_2015

_________7.6 __ 7.9 __ 8.5^__11.4 _14.2 _ 17.7 _19.7 _20.2_16.8^_13.8^_10.6 _ 9.3

 

_26 __ 1916 _2024_1957_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1921_1994_2015

_________7.6 __ 7.8 __ 8.7 __11.5 _14.5 _ 17.8 _19.6 _20.1 _16.8^_13.7 _10.4 _ 9.4

 

_27 __ 1916 _1869_1957_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1921_1994_2015

_________7.6 __ 7.7 __ 8.8 __11.6 _14.5 _ 17.8 _19.5 _20.0 _16.9 _13.8 _10.4 _ 9.4

 

_28 __ 1916 _1779_1957_2011_1833_1846_ 2006_1995_2023_2001_1994_2015

_________7.7 __ 7.7 __ 8.9 __11.6 _14.6 _ 18.0 _19.7 _19.7 _16.9 _13.7 _10.3 _ 9.4

 

_29 __ 1916_1872* 1957_2011_1833_1846_ 2006_1995_2006,23_2001_1994_2015

_________7.8 __7.0* __9.0 __11.8 _14.7 _ 18.1 _19.8 _19.5_16.87_13.6 _10.2 _ 9.6

 

_30 __ 1916 _ -- -- _1957_2011_1833_1846_ 2006_1995_2023_2001_1994_2015

_________7.7 __-- -- __9.1 __11.9 _14.9 _ 18.1 _19.8 _19.3 _16.9 _13.4 _10.0 _ 9.7

 

_31 __ 1916 _xxxx _1957_xxxx_1833_xxxx_  2006_1995_xxxx_2001_ xxxx_2015

_________7.7 __-- -- __9.2 __-- -- __15.1 _ -- -- _ 19.8 _ 19.1 _-- -- _13.2 _-- --  _ 9.6

________________________

So, while there are only 12 years with the distinction of holding a warmest month, there are many years that have at least one warmest 31-day interval (or are tied in one decimal). Several years (incl 1846, 1976, 1990, 2006, 2011, 2015, 2022) produced two entirely separate ones, and 2006 also participates in a third near miss in mid-January of 2007. 

 

^ years tied in one dec 

 

15 Dec - 14 Jan (2015-2016 _ 8.13) (1974-1975 8.08)

21 Dec - 20 Jan (1974-1975 _ 7.65) (1975-1976 7.48 ... stays 0.1 to 0.2 lower than 1915-1916 run for several days.

... ... ... Peak is 7.57 for 23 Dec to 22 Jan 1976

... ... 1920-1921 also approaches but does not overtake 1915-1916 (peak 25 Dec 1920 - 24 Jan 1921 is 7.56). 

 4 Jan - 3 Feb 1796 (7.22) _ 1916 (7.17)

 5 Jan - 4 Feb 1796 (7.14) _ 1834 (7.13)

 6 Jan - 5 Feb 1796,1834 (7.10) _ 1846 (7.06)

 8 Jan - 7 Feb 1990 (7.08) _ 2002 (7.06)

 9 Jan - 8 Feb 2002 (7.18) _ 1990 (7.16)

24 Jan - 23 Feb 1903 (7.44) _ 2002 (7.40) both lost out to 8.18 2024

10 Feb - 12 Mar 2019 (7.81) _ 1998 (7.80). 1961 (7.77).  2007 (7.75)

11 Feb - 13 Mar 1961 (7.89) _ 2007, 2019 (7.85)

12 Feb - 14 Mar 2019 (8.01) _ 1961 (7.95)

23 Feb - 25 Mar 1990 (8.51) _ 1957 (8.50)

10 Mar - 9 Apr 1957 (9.60) _ 2017 (9.56)

12 Mar -11 Apr 2017 (9.50) _ 2011 (9.47)

13 Mar -12 Apr 2017 (9.49) _ 2011 (9.45)

15 Mar -14 Apr 2011 (9.60) _ 1803 (9.58)

16 Mar -15 Apr 1945 (9.84) _ 1803 (9.77)

18 Mar -17 Apr 1945 (10.30) _ 1803 (10.28)

09 Apr - 09 May 2011 (12.23) _ 2007 (12.15) _ after several days wit in 0.1, this was only one dec tie, next day was 0.02 diff (12.25-12.23) ...

... ... note also 1775 was close to level by end of 2011 run, but as it passed 2011, 1893 began a week-long run (1775 was 0.1 back for 14 Apr - 14 May

... ... and peaked at 12.64 for 17 Apr - 17 May (but 1833 was already up to 12.93) . 

06 May - 05 June 1833 (15.32) _ 1947 (15.25)

13 May - 12 June 1992 (15.54) _ 1833 (15.52) _ 1822 (15.49)

04 June - 04 July 1846 (18.20) _ 1976 (18.18)

11 June - 11 July 1826 peaked 18.90 (rounded to 18.9 four intervals 9-12 Jun to 9-12 July)

27 June - 27 July 2006 (19.47) _ 1976 (19.45) _ also (not tied) 2018 _ 19.42

 2 July - 1 Aug 1983 peaked at 19.44 (not a record, 2006 was 19.69

 4 July - 3 Aug 1995 (19.34) _ 2006 (19.31) _ also (not tied) 2018 _ 19.22

15 July - 14 Aug 2022 (19.50) _ 1995 (19.49) _ note 2003 peaked 13,14  July - 12,13 Aug at 19.10,

... ... ... 1990 also peaked at 18.53 13 Jul - 12 Aug. (2019 10 Jul - 9 Aug 18.35)

16 July - 15 Aug 1995 (19.61) _ 2022 (19.55) _ also 1975 (18.96) peaked

note& 20, 21 July - 19, 20 Aug 1911 peaked at 19.46, 

11 Aug - 10 Sep ... 1898 peaked at 17.61, and stayed about 0.8 below record pace to 0.3 below records by 23 Aug-22 Sep

18 Aug - 17 Sep _ 2023 (17.61) _ 1947 (17.60)

23 Aug - 22 Sep _ 2016 (17.02) _ 2023 (16.96) _ 1865 peaked two days earlier at 16.96 (not a record)

24 Aug - 23 Sep _ 2016,2023 (16.79) _ 1949 (16.76)

25 Aug - 24 Sep _ 1949, 2006 (16.70) _ 2023 (16.69)

26 Aug - 25 Sep _ 2006 (16.79) _ 2023 (16.76) 

27 Aug - 26 Sep _ 2023 (16.80) _ 2006 (16.78)

30 Aug - 29 Sep _ 2006,23 (16.87) _ 1949 was 16.53, staying 0.1-0.3 below all records since it tied a record 25 Aug-24 Sep.

31 Aug - 30 Sep _ 2023 (16.89) _ 2006 (16.85) ... 2006 began to fall off 2023 pace but returned to record status later.

 9 Sep - 9 Oct _ 2023 (15.81) _ 2006 (15.75)

13 Sep - 13 Oct _ 1949 (15.34) _ 2006 (15.30)

24 Sep - 24 Oct _ 1949 (13.94) _ 2001 (13.85) _ note 1921 was close to record pace for previous ten days, 0.2 to 0.4 below 1949.

25 Sep - 25 Oct _ 2001 (13.82) _ 1949 (13.75)

Oct-Nov 2022 run wiped out runs for 2015 and 1978; 1938 was not a factor, only a 20-day spike in CET values 1-20 Nov.

18 Nov - 18 Dec 2015 (8.38) _ 1828 (8.37)

19 Nov - 19 Dec 1828 (8.47) _ 2015 (8.45)

21 Nov - 21 Dec 1828 (8.63) _ 2015 (8.58) _ 1934 (8.45)

___________________

If we did not have a calendar we would probably consider all of date 31-day averages equally valid. Our calendar is basically a sort of blend of lunar cycle and annual cycle, and has no real special significance (I figure 1828's obscure 3-day run Nov-Dec is just as valid as July 2006, or Feb 1779, but who knew it was hiding in the data? ... various other surprises were found in years like 1803). 

Edited March 18 by Roger J Smith
2024 taking records (2002, 1903, 1869 losses)

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 6.7C +2.1C above average. Rainfall 61.2mm 93.9% of the monthly average.

[WYorksWeather]

Quite surprising actually to me that we didn't see a drop from yesterday.

With the CET at 7.6C today in one decimal after 13 days, it's interesting to see where we'll be heading towards the end of February.

We have a good chance of recording a couple of days around 11C for Wednesday and Thursday, then possibly slightly cooler Friday and Saturday, but again very mild on Sunday. I think it's reasonable to assume that the 14th-18th will have a mean of around 10C. Maxima for the CET region look to be in the 13C range most days, and minima no lower than 7C. This could even be a little conservative.

If we do the maths, then we get (13 * 7.6 + 5 * 10.0) / 18 = 8.2C (rounding down to be on the safe side).

That would give us a bit of a buffer, so the remainder of February would need to average mid 7s to be in contention for the record. Quite remarkable really that we're even talking about this, given the longer-range models were originally supporting a cold February!

I still don't think it's more likely than not, but if we do get the CET into the 8s after this week, it provides more of a buffer.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I've now conditioned myself to be less surprised by these high temperature results being ahead of those forecast.

I am guessing the verification stats show the actual temperature values are more often higher than the models are forecasting rather than lower?

[WYorksWeather]

 BlueSkies_do_I_see Most of the models tend to underdo temperatures in most scenarios. There are generally two exceptions.

The first is that in winter, where there is significant snow cover, models often fail to account for cooling caused by the lying snow. Hence, the mid-January cold spell was actually colder, particularly with overnight minima, than some of the model output suggested. This even included output at very short range.

The second scenario is virtually the opposite. After very prolonged dry and hot weather, the GFS in particular has a known bias in its soil moisture algorithm, that leads to an overestimate of temperatures. For example, in July 2022, we saw quite a few GFS runs showing 43C for the UK, and even high 40s in parts of France. Verification ended up 2-3C lower.

Absent either of those circumstances, you'll generally find that models tend to underestimate temperatures more than overestimate them.

[Weather-history]

 summer blizzard

1868-69

Dec 7.2

Feb 7.5

[LetItSnow!]

An exceptional run of warmer than average Februaries since 2014 with 2015 and 2018 the only exceptions. Must be one of the fastest warming months in recent times. A lot of Februaries in the past ten years would be a mild March 50 years ago.

[WYorksWeather]

 LetItSnow! As I'm fond of repeating, the 2014-2023 average for February stands at 5.7C, slightly higher than the 1961-1990 average for March!  The February 2024 figure will replace 6.3C in 2014, so it looks almost certain that we'll maintain or increase the 10-year average.

 

[johncam]

 LetItSnow! yep as a lot of guys have said it's turning into a spring month sad to say.

[Snowyowl9]

 LetItSnow!

February 1997/2002 even more exceptional..

February 1998 was the standout record month for me,February 1990...

This february will be off the scale,but not much in the way of sun like february 2008 with those warm feeling days..

[Scorcher]

Yes it's certainly been a dull month here so far. February is the one winter month that can be both mild and sunny- 1998, 2008 and 2019 are the ones that immediately spring to mind.

This one has been almost homogenously mild so far other than a couple of isolated colder days.

It hasn't been overly wet here in the first half but only 14.1 hours of sunshine up to yesterday.

[kold weather]

Starting to look like another very wet month on the ewp, basically at average already and the models are swinging wetter again. 

Almost certainly will be one of the wettest 12 month periods (2023 already at the top end for yearlies) taking into account the very dry Feb 23 getting replaced by the probably very wet Feb 24.

[WYorksWeather]

Now at 7.7C up to the 14th. Bound to go higher still over the next few days I think.

Pershore reached 17C today, Rothamsted around 16C. Stonyhurst isn't on Meteociel but based on other nearby stations probably 14C. That means the daily high will average at least 15C.

I checked yesterday and it looks like those stations have a complete 9am yesterday to 9am today in double figures as well. Minima probably averaging 10C or a touch higher.

12-13C average therefore looks likely, so CET reporting tomorrow might be back to 8.0C give or take.

It will then be a case of how much further it is able to climb before a likely drop back. Probably a good envelope for the eventual finish is anything from around 7.0C to 8.5C.

[Summer Sun]

7.7c to the 14th

3.9c above the 61 to 90 average
3.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[Derecho]

 WYorksWeather Stonyhurst is on Weatherobs and got to 13.96C a short time ago.

Weatherobs

WEATHEROBS.COM

---

Global weather observations (METAR, SYNOP, BUOY, SHIP, TAF, CWOP) decoded to enable display of latest temperatures, weather, snow depths, precipitation, wind and wave conditions and more

 

[snowray]

Indeed, up we go again. 

Although from these high CET levels, just 5 days of cold weather, not Ice days, just frosty nights and colder day max temps would produce a drop of around 1c.

Still a chance of this at the end of the month.

[WYorksWeather]

 snowray Yep, I definitely don't think a record breaking CET is odds-on yet. But it's very hard to see from the modelling how we would fall too far short of it.

 Derecho Not a bad guess from me in that case.

Think we should expect 8.0C or thereabout for tomorrow's report.

[North-Easterly Blast]

I believe that today could have the warmest daily CET mean for any February day on record.  I believe that the all time record for that is 12.8 on February 4th 2004.  With the daily maxima for all three stations likely to average close to 15.5  or maybe a touch higher, minima looked to be close to 11*C, so a daily CET for today in the 13s is inevitable. 

The CET for the 28 days from January 21st to February 17th is very likely to reach 7.9 (the overall figure for Feb 1779), so a 28 day period within January and February this year will go down as a spell to rival Feb 1779, and up to next Tuesday 20th, the 31 day running CET could get very close to 8*C, which is the all time record for any 31 day period within January and February.