February 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[davehsug]

5.2C & 75mm please

[Somerset girl]

5.7 C and 85mm please.  

[summer blizzard]

5.1C, 59mm.

[February1978]

5.3c & 94mm please

[J10]

5.2c and 75mm. Although might be milder.

[Godber 1]

2.8c and 82mm please.

[Mark Bayley]

5.7c please 

[Roger J Smith]

 

Table of forecasts for February 2024

 

CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (Order of entry) _______ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (Order of entry) ___ 

9.0 __ 49.0 _ Shillitocettwo ( 11 ) ________________ 5.6 __ 88.0 _ Weather26 ( 5 ) _______________

8.1 __ 40.0 _ syed2878 ( 25 ) _____________________5.6 __ 92.0 _ Mr Maunder ( 36 ) ____________

7.4 _ 121.0 _ SLEETY ( 23 ) _______________________5.5 __ 50.0 _ The PIT ( 20 ) __________________

7.3 __ 92.0 _ IRememberAtlantic252 ( 2 ) ________5.5 __ 80.0 _ DR(S)NO ( 30 ) _________________

7.3 __ 40.0 _ Wade ( 10 ) _________________________5.5 __ 80.0 _ weatherforducks (L1-1) _______ 

7.2 __ 80.0 _ matt stoke ( 22 ) ___________________ 5.4 __ 92.0 _ chilly milly ( 19 ) _______________

7.2 _ 125.8 _ Roger J Smith ( 51 ) ________________ 5.4 __ 66.5 _ summer8906 ( 37 ) ____________

7.1 _ 122.0 _ Summer18 ( 18 ) ___________________5.4 _ 105.0 _ Metwatch ( 53 ) ________________

7.0 __ 84.0 _ Polar Gael ( 8 ) _____________________ 5.3 __ 94.0 _ February1978 ( 57 ) ____________

6.9 _ 166.0 _ stewfox ( 13 ) _______________________5.2 _ 75.0 _ 1994-2023 average ______________ 

6.9 __ 51.0 _ rwtwm ( 24 ) ________________________5.2 _ 75.0 _ davehsug ( 53 ) __________________ 

6.8 __ 91.0 _ Emmett Garland (21) _______________5.2 _ 75.0 _ J10 ( 57 ) _________________________ 

6.7 __ 67.0 _ snowblind ( 14 ) ____________________5.1 _ 59.0 _ summer blizzard ( 55 ) __________ 

6.7 __ 60.0 _ WYorksWeather ( 33 ) ______________5.0 __ 72.4 _ 1991-2020 average ____________ 

6.7 __ 45.0 _ Weather Observer ( 48 ) ____________5.0 __ 55.0 _ Norrance ( 45 ) __________________

6.6 _ 130.0 _ Frigid ( 6 ) __________________________ 5.0 __ --- --- _ damianslaw ( 47 ) ______________

6.5 __ 78.0 _ Feb1991Blizzard ( 44 ) ______________4.9 __ 82.0 _ noname_weather ( 52 ) _________

6.2 __ 73.0 _ snowray ( 4 ) ________________________4.8 __ 70.0 _ Don ( 50 ) ______________________

6.2 __ 86.0 _ Steve B ( 12 ) ________________________4.7 __ 59.6 _ Bobd29 ( 1 ) _____________________

6.2 __ 65.0 _ methuselah ( 16 ) ___________________4.7 __ --- --- _ Typhoon John ( 3 ) ______________

6.2 __ 79.0 _ ScottD ( 17 ) ________________________ 4.7 __ 56.0 _ seaside60 ( 26 ) __________________

6.1 __ 80.0 _ Leo97t ( 27 ) ________________________ 4.6 __ 52.0 _ virtualsphere ( 15 ) ______________ 

6.0 __ 73.0 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 34 ) ______________4.6 __ 75.0 _ Shaunado ( 41 ) _________________  

5.9 __ 72.0 _ Reef ( 32 ) ___________________________ 4.4 __ 66.5 _ 1981-2010 average ____________ 

5.9 __ 80.0 _ dancerwithwings ( 43, 2.5 ) __________4.4 __ 60.0 _ mulzy ( 38 ) _____________________ 

5.8 __ --- --- _ Summer Sun ( 28 ) __________________ 4.0 __ 83.0 _ jonboy ( 29 ) ____________________ 

5.8 __ 33.0 _ Summer Shower ( 42 ) ______________ 3.9 __65.5 _ average of all data ______________ 

5.7 __ 59.0 _ catbrainz ( 31 ) ______________________ 3.9 __ 65.0 _ daniel* ( 39 ) ___________________

5.7 __ 75.0 _ Stationary Front ( 46 ) _______________ 3.8 __ 55.0 _ Neil N ( 40 ) ____________________ 

5.7 __ 85.0 _ Somerset Girl ( 55 ) __________________ 3.4 __ 48.3 _ baddie (using 2013) ( 7 ) _______

5.7 __ --- --- _Mark Bayley ( 60 ) ____________________3.3 __ --- --- _ Kentish Man (49) _______________

5.7 __ 75.0 _ Consensus ____________________________ 3.2 __ 85.0 _ Jeff C ( 9 ) _______________________

____________________________________________________ 2.8 __ 82.0 _ Godber 1 ( 59 ) _________________

____________________________________________________ 2.3 _ 100.8 _ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 35 ) ________

60 on time forecasts, and one late by one day, 61 total __ consensus (median) 5.7

========================

EWP forecasts in order 

166_stew .. 130_Frig .. 125.8_RJS .. 122_sum18 ... 121_SLE .. 105_Met .. 100.8_KW .. 

 94_Feb78 .. 92_IRem, cm, MrM .. 91_EG .. 88_wx26 .. 86_Ste .. 85_Jeff, sg .. 84_PG .. 83_jon ..

 82_non, godb .. 80_dww, matt, leo, DR(S), ducks^ .. 79_ScottD .. 78_Feb91 .. 75_Shaun, SF, dave, J10

 75.0_94-23 .. 73_snowray, MIA .. 72.4_91-20 .. 72_Reef .. 70_Don .. 67_snowblind ..

 66.5_sum8906 .. 66.5_81-10 .. 65.5_alldata .. 65..meth, dan* ..

 60_WYork, mul .. 59.6_bob .. 59_cat, sb .. 56_sea .. 55_NN, Norr .. 52_virt ..

 51_rwtwm .. 50_PIT .. 49_Shil .. 48.3_bad ... 45_WxOb .. 40_Wade, syed .. 33_SumSh

__________ __________

55 on time forecasts, and one late by one day ^ .. total 56 .. consensus 75.0 mm

Edited February 2 by Roger J Smith

[weatherforducks]

5.5c and 80mm please

[Roger J Smith]

CET extremes for February (1772-2023) and 1981-2010, 1991-2020 means

____________________________________________________________

This section is fully converted from CET legacy to CET v2.0. 1981-2010 averages were similar anyway, about

two thirds of the daily averages went up by 0.1 but due to rounding the monthly average was still 4.4. Most

daily records are same with minor alterations to values, but 2nd 1923, 6th 1866, and 24th 1846 lost record

highs held in the CET legacy set. Three ties are added or replaced what had been sole records (3rd Feb min was tied).

 

DATE .... MAX (year) .... MIN (year) .. .. 1981-2010 avg, cum to date .... Highest and lowest running CET 

01 Feb ... 11.1 (1923) ... -6.8 (1956) ... ... ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... ... 4.5 .... .... ... 11.1 (1923) ... ... ... -6.8 (1956)
02 Feb ... 10.9 (2002,04) . -6.6 (1956) ... ... ... ...  4.5 ... ... ... 4.5 .... .... ... 10.9 (1923) ... ... ... -6.6 (1956)
03 Feb ... 12.2 (2004) ... -5.4 (1841 & 1956) ... .. 4.7 ... ... ... 4.6 .... .... ...10.8 (2004) ... ... ... -6.2 (1956)
04 Feb ... 12.8 (2004) ... -4.8 (1912) ... ... ... ... ... 5.2 ... ... ... 4.7.... .... ... 11.3 (2004) ... ... ... -5.0 (1956)
05 Feb ... 11.8 (2004) ... -6.3 (1830) ... ... ... ... ... 5.4 ... ... ... 4.9 .... .... ... 11.4 (2004) ... ... ... -4.9 (1830)

06 Feb ... 10.3 (2011) ... -7.3 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 5.5 ... ... ... 5.0 .... .... ... 10.9 (2004) ... ... ... -5.1 (1830)
07 Feb ... 10.4 (1869) ... -7.2 (1895,1917) .. ... ... 4.8 ... ... ... 4.9 .... .... ... 10.3 (2004) ... ... ... -3.7 (1830)
08 Feb ... 10.7 (1903) ... -8.5 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.9 .... .... ..... 9.6 (1994) ... ... ... -3.7 (1895)
09 Feb ... 11.4 (1831,1903) . -8.8 (1816)*... ... .. 4.0 ... ... ... 4.8 .... .... ..... 9.2 (1869) ... ... ... -4.1 (1895)
10 Feb ... 12.0 (1899) ... -6.6 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.7 .... .... ..... 9.3 (1869) ... ... ... -4.3 (1895)

11 Feb ... 11.4 (1939) ... -4.0 (1986) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.7 .... .... ..... 9.2 (1869) ... ... ... -4.2 (1895)
12 Feb ... 11.3 (1998) ... -7.7 (1845) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.7 .... .... ..... 8.9 (1869) ... ... ... -4.3 (1895)
13 Feb ... 11.9 (1998) ... -6.9 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.6 .... .... ..... 8.8 (1869) ... ... ... -4.4 (1895)
14 Feb ... 10.2 (1794) ... -7.2 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 3.5 ... ... ... 4.5 .... .... ..... 8.8 (1869) ... ... ... -4.3 (1895)
15 Feb ... 11.1 (1958) ... -7.4 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.5 .... .... ..... 8.7 (1869) ... ... ... -4.3 (1895)

16 Feb ... 10.5 (2022) ... -7.2 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.5 .... .... ..... 8.8 (1869) ... ... ... -4.1 (1895)
17 Feb ... 11.3 (1878,2023) . -7.0 (1855)... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 8.7 (1869) ... ... ... -4.0 (1895)
18 Feb ... 11.8 (1945) ... -3.9 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.9 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 8.6 (1869) ... ... ... -3.9 (1895)
19 Feb ... 10.4 (1893) ... -5.0 (1777) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 8.4 (1869) ... ... ... -3.6 (1895)
20 Feb ... 11.3 (1990) ... -6.6 (1785) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.3 (1869) ... ... ... -3.5 (1895)

21 Feb ... 11.3 (2019) ... -4.7 (1810) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.2 (1869) ... ... ... -3.2 (1895)
22 Feb ... 10.6 (1953) ... -3.3 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.9 (1869) ... ... ... -3.0 (1855&1895) 
23 Feb ... 11.8 (2012) ... -3.5 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.3 ..... .... ..... 7.7 (1779&1869) ..-2.9 (1855) 
24 Feb ... 11.5 (2021) ... -6.6 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 7.7 (1779) ... ... ... -2.6 (1855) 
25 Feb ... 10.9 (1922) ... -5.1 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.6 (1779&1869) ..-2.4 (1855) 

26 Feb ... 10.9 (1882) ... -4.7 (1783) ... ... ... ... ... 5.0 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 7.7 (1779&1869) ..-2.2 (1855)
27 Feb ... 11.5 (1828) ... -2.8 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 5.3 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 7.8 (1779) ... ... ... -2.0 (1855&1895&1947) 
28 Feb ... 11.4 (1959) ... -3.8 (1785) ... ... ... ... ... 5.3 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 7.9 (1779) ... ... ... -1.9 (1947) (-1.8 1895)

29 Feb ... 12.0 (1960) ... -2.0 (1904) ... ... ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... ... 4.8**.. .... ..... 6.9 (1872) ... ... ... -0.2 (1956)

*(1895 was -7.0 on 9th, coldest week in Feb was 6-12 Feb 1895 at --6.3).

** This is the average of seven leap years 1984,88,92,96,2000,04,08 ... but the value for 28th is for all thirty years and does not change for monthly means including the seven leap years. The average of the 23 non leap years was 4.3. 

_________________________________________________________________________________

1991-2020 CET daily averages and running means (in that order for each day)

 

01 __ 4.5 _ 4.5 ____ 06 __ 4.9 _ 4.7 ____ 11 __ 4.6 _ 4.6 ____ 16 __ 5.2 _ 4.7 ____ 21 __ 5.4 _ 4.8 ____ 26 __ 5.7 _ 4.9

02 __ 4.4 _ 4.5 ____ 07 __ 4.5 _ 4.7 ____ 12 __ 5.0 _ 4.6 ____ 17 __ 5.1 _ 4.7 ____ 22 __ 5.4 _ 4.8 ____ 27 __ 5.5 _ 4.9

03 __ 4.4 _ 4.4 ____ 08 __ 4.2 _ 4.6 ____ 13 __ 4.9 _ 4.6 ____ 18 __ 5.1 _ 4.7 ____ 23 __ 5.6 _ 4.8 ____ 28 __ 5.0 _ 4.9*

04 __ 4.9 _ 4.5 ____ 09 __ 4.2 _ 4.5 ____ 14 __ 4.4 _ 4.6 ____ 19 __ 5.0 _ 4.7 ____ 24 __ 5.8 _ 4.8 ____ 29 __ 5.5 _ 4.9*

05 __ 5.0 _ 4.6 ____ 10 __ 4.5 _ 4.5 ____ 15 __ 5.1 _ 4.6 ____ 20 __ 5.1 _ 4.7 ____ 25 __ 5.5 _ 4.9

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

* technical note: these are not the running means for only those years ending on 28th or that were leap years,

they are the same value (end of February running mean, regardless of number of days in month). 

The mean of the eight leap years in the period (1992,96,2000,04,08,12,16,20) was actually 5.00

The mean of the other 22 months of February was 4.86. The mean of all thirty was 4.90. 

If the 22 years that were not leap years used their 1st March values, the average for 29th Feb would be 5.0. 

===========================================================================

[Summer Sun]

5.5c to the 1st

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

7.0c to the 2nd

3.2c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

Our warm forecasts are probably in trouble if the GFS is right about an extended cold spell, but in past we have often seen the GFS overdo cold at longer time scales, so it's hard to say if t is is a real problem or not. (earlier it looked like a four or five day cold spell followed by a gradual return to milder). If GFS is correct we would see a peak CET of about 7.5 C in a few days, and a gradual decline to 3.5 by 19 Feb. 

EWP first report,  only around 1 mm so far, GFS estimate to 19 Feb is a grid average of 40 mm. 

[WYorksWeather]

Pershore reached just under 15C today and Rothamsted just under 13C. If we assume overnight minima stay around 7-8C or so, then depending on the figure for Stonyhurst, possibly a double digit mean when we get today's figure reported tomorrow?

[WYorksWeather]

2 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Our warm forecasts are probably in trouble if the GFS is right about an extended cold spell, but in past we have often seen the GFS overdo cold at longer time scales, so it's hard to say if t is is a real problem or not. (earlier it looked like a four or five day cold spell followed by a gradual return to milder). If GFS is correct we would see a peak CET of about 7.5 C in a few days, and a gradual decline to 3.5 by 19 Feb. 

Not too worried about my forecast yet - GFS is on the cold outlier side of things tonight. 

[Summer Sun]

8.3c to the 3rd

4.5c above the 61 to 90 average
3.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

No new records, 14.5, 12.2 and 10.0 (all 2004) beat out 2024 values of 13.2, 11.0, 8.7. 

[Summer Sun]

8.9c to the 4th

5.1c above the 61 to 90 average
4.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[WYorksWeather]

Worth highlighting just how much of an impact these early cold spells have. We're currently 5.1C above average after four days. This already means that the rest of February must average 0.8C below the 1961-1990 average for February overall to come out average with respect to 1961-1990. Given the cold looks to struggle to reach the south, we may not even get many below average days later this week, which would only stack the odds even further.

I'm already very confident that February will finish above 1961-1990, again...

[Roger J Smith]

Again, 2004 kept 2024 out of records, in fact 4 Feb 2004 was February's warmest daily mean. I also show 1999, previous record for 4 Feb. 

2024: 13.0 __ 10.7 ___ 8.4 

2004: 14.8 __ 12.8 __ 10.8

1999: 12.3 __ 10.1 ___ 7.8 

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

 WYorksWeather It's hard seeing where the next below average CET month is coming from.   We have only had one Mean CET month below average since June 2021 (Dec 2022 CET 3.4).  That's 31 of the last 32 months above average.

Edited February 6 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Summer Sun]

9.0c to the 5th

5.2c above the 61 to 90 average
4.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[Shillitocettwo]

  Well.....the CET is nearly 0.5.C above even my Lettucing. 

 

   I do like snow and cold weather, honest, although a shame for my prediction! Still, if the cold spell isn't too long (I'm not sure I'd even call it a cold spell in the southern parts of the UK and CET zone, more colder) and we get a good 2019ing end of month I still feel this month will 'achieve' a record high month CET temp value

[johncam]

 Summer Sun my god , not much chance of a below mean temp now. 

[reef]

This month could be the February equivalent of December 2015 at this rate. It doesn't look like cooling down much in the CET zone at all. We could well be well north of 8.0C at mid-month and it wouldnt take too much of a warm spell in the second half to see to it. GFS tonight keeps it above average right out until the last week.