February 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[Don]

1 hour ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

The mid-January to mid-February period this year must be among the warmest since 2002.

Do you know what the CET was for that period?

[North-Easterly Blast]

 Don I think that the CET from mid January to mid February 2002 was close to 8*C, which I believe is the warmest monthly period on record straddling two calendar months in January and February.  Mid January to mid February this year will not get close to that, due to the cold spell in mid January lasting until the 20th, but this year is still likely to be the warmest mid January to mid February period since 2002.  Having said that, the 28 days from January 21st to February 17th this year could record a CET close to or not far off 7.9; which was the overall figure for the warmest February on record in 1779.

Edited February 11 by North-Easterly Blast

[Roger J Smith]

The warmest 31-day average during Jan-Feb appears to be 8.0 for 14 Jan to 13 Feb 2002. A close second is 7.7 for 27 or 28 Jan to 26 or 27 Feb 1869. To get a comparable period in 1779 would require using days in early march.

So to answer the inevitable question, following are top ten values after 14, 15 days either of which might be considered mid-month this leap year Feb, so we can see where 2024 stands at that point. Table is in order of 1-14 Feb and ranks for 1-15 are shown in table. Also shown are CET after 1-20 Feb and at end of Feb. 

 

Top 20 Running CET values 1-14 Feb

Rank __ YEAR ___ CET 1-14 _ 1-15 Feb __ Rank 1-15 __ (1-20) __ (1-28 or 29) *leap year 29d

_ 01 ___ 1869 ____ 8.76 _____ 8.73 _____ 1 __________ 8.25 _______ 7.49

_ 02 ___ 2002 ____ 8.16 _____ 7.89 _____ 4 __________ 7.35 _______ 6.97

_ 03 ___ 1914 ____ 8.10 _____ 8.23 _____ 2 __________ 7.39 _______ 6.82

_ 04 ___ 2004 ____ 7.99 _____ 7.91 _____ 3 __________ 7.06 _______ 5.40*

_ 05 ___ 1918 ____ 7.89 _____ 7.72 _____ 6 __________ 6.41 _______ 6.50

_ 06 ___ 1877 ____ 7.85 _____ 7.75 _____ 5 __________ 7.27 _______ 6.20

_ 07 ___ 1779 ____ 7.76 _____ 7.68 _____ 7 __________ 7.99 _______ 7.87

_ 08 ___ 1946 ____ 7.67 _____ 7.66 _____ 8t__________ 7.54 _______ 5.91

_ 09 ___ 1948 ____ 7.60 _____ 7.66 _____ 8t__________ 6.12 _______ 4.70* 

_ 10 ___ 1903 ____ 7.46 _____ 7.47 _____10 __________ 7.15 _______ 7.11

_ 11 ___ 1872 ____ 7.39 _____ 7.19 _____12 __________ 6.76 _______ 6.89 *

_ 12 ___ 2011 ____ 7.21 _____ 6.97 _____15 __________ 6.41 _______ 6.51

_ 13 ___ 1961 ____ 7.19 _____ 7.27 _____11 __________ 7.31 _______ 6.90 

_ 14 ___ 2000 ____ 7.07 _____ 6.92 _____16 __________ 6.37 _______ 6.21 *

_ 15 ___ 1792 ____ 7.00 _____ 6.86 _____17 __________ 4.92 _______ 4.47 *

_ 16 ___ 1867 ____ 6.99 _____ 7.15 _____13 __________ 7.40 _______ 6.89

_ 17 ___ 1833 ____ 6.96 _____ 6.71 _____22 __________ 6.11 _______ 5.60

_ 18 ___ 1957 ____ 6.95 _____ 6.68 _____23 __________ 5.53 _______ 5.29

_ 19 ___ 1990 ____ 6.94 _____ 6.76 _____21 __________ 6.94 _______ 7.33

_ 20 ___ 1995 ____ 6.91 _____ 6.99 _____14 __________ 6.88 _______ 6.49

<<< Raw data for 21-43 >>>

2022 6.83 6.84 7.07 6.95 __ rank 18 (1-15)

1989 6.73 6.81 6.70 5.96 __ rank 19t (1-15)

1982 6.69 6.44 5.31 4.78

1933 6.65 6.35 5.16 4.30

1945 6.63 6.51 7.05 7.10

1998 6.60 6.81 7.21 7.23 __ rank 19t (1-15)

1894 6.59 6.41 5.28 5.10

1923 6.51 6.31 5.66 5.60

1848 6.49 6.43 5.67 6.12 *

1925 6.49 6.34 5.75 5.21

1775 6.46 6.42 6.12 6.14

1794 6.44 6.67 6.70 7.16

1822 6.43 6.54 6.61 6.34

1790 6.42 6.33 6.17 6.63

1781 6.38 6.21 5.36 4.85

2005 6.37 6.19 5.42 4.31

1866 6.30 6.27 5.09 4.40

2020 6.29 6.43 6.54 6.44 *

1815 6.28 6.30 6.41 6.51 

1920 6.28 6.34 6.54 5.99 *

1856 6.27 6.33 5.33 5.30 *

1885 6.26 6.34 5.43 5.79

1943 6.26 6.31 6.15 6.11

1850 6.00 6.32 6.64 6.39

(for inclusion, either 1-14 or 1-15 is 6.3 or above)

2019 was 4.84 5.01 5.84 6.89

[North-Easterly Blast]

 Roger J Smith Thank you for posting this.  I knew that this February was very likely to be looking at the warmest first half since 2004 or possibly 2002, but I was not sure about how many other Februarys were as warm as this year by this point or the mid-month point.

I think that we are at least likely to be looking at (from January 21st up to this coming February 20th) one of the warmest 31 day CET periods on record in January and February even if we do not quite reach the 8.0 for the period Jan 14th to Feb 13th 2002.  I know that the period that you mention in 2002 is the warmest 31 day CET period on record in January and February, and the one that you mention in 1869 at 7.7 is very likely the second warmest, but I am not sure what the other warmest are (say in the top ten).

[Summer Sun]

7.8c to the 11th

4.0c above the 61 to 90 average
3.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[Metwatch]

Up it goes, the EWP is now at 57.2mm following all the recent rainfall up to the 10th. A 100mm month pretty much set in stone now?

[LetItSnow!]

 Metwatch With a very wet December, I assume it wouldn’t take much to put this winter into the upper echelons of wet winters? 

[Metwatch]

 LetItSnow!

The EWP so far for this winter is around 315mm which already puts it into the top 35 wettest! With another 25-30mm for February, this winter would get into the top 15.

List of wettest winters:

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 6.8C +2.3C above average. rainfall 49.7mm 76.2% of the monthly average.

[WYorksWeather]

Today looks a fair bit colder, probably around 5-6C going by Rothamsted and Pershore on Meteociel I would've thought. Should drop the CET to around 7.5-7.6 tomorrow I would have thought. Probably unlikely to drop much further tomorrow and may in fact rise when we have figures for Wednesday and Thursday. By mid-month probably still in the mid to high 7s.

[North-Easterly Blast]

 WYorksWeather Yes we are definitely on course for one of the warmest first halves of February on record as listed in the post that Roger J Smith posted.  With the immediate forecast for another week still mild, we look on course for one of the warmest 31 day CET periods on record in January and February from January 21st until February 20th.  The record is 8.0 from 2002 as in Roger J Smith's post, and when you factor in that the CET for the last 23 days is around 7.6 or something, we look to come very close to an all time record.

[Roger J Smith]

For any 31 days that fall entirely within January and February, these are the top ten averages I found (allowing only one per year otherwise you get numerous entries a day or two displaced from the optimal cases) ... allowing in days from Dec or march will obviously change this list considerably. Perhaps 1st of march could be allowed in for non-leap-year Febs, alternate results shown for 1779 and 1998, the only cases where this boosted a value (1990 did not get a higher result). The v2.0.1.0 data are used. January averages from years before 1772 (daily data) are inserted into table as values in said months would have been at least that high. Feb averages less 0.05 (for possibly colder end of Jan days) are inserted also. None appear to be contenders for top ten. 

Table edited for new record 21 Feb 2024

 

Warmest 31-day intervals entirely within Jan-Feb

 

Rank ___ Average ___ Start __ End ___ Year

_ 01 ____ 8.29 ______ 21 01 _ 20 02 _ 2024

_ 02 ____ 7.97 _______ 14 01 _ 13 02 _ 2002

_ 03 ____ 7.75 _______ 27 01 _ 26 02 _ 1869

_ 04 ____ 7.70 _______ 29 01 _ 28 02 _ 1779 (7.87 30 01 to 01 03)

_ 05 ____ 7.57 _______ 01 01 _ 31 01 _ 1916

_ 06 ____ 7.44 _______ 24 01 _ 23 02 _ 1903

_ 07 ____ 7.32 _______ 02 01 _ 01 02 _ 1796

_ 08 ____ 7.31 _______ 23 01 _ 22 02 _ 1867

_ 09 ____ 7.30 _______ 01 01 _ 31 01 _ 1921 *

_ 10 ____ 7.25 _______ 29 01 _ 28 02 _ 1990

_ 11 ____ 7.20 _______ 03 01 _ 02 02 _ 1834 * (7.56 29 12 to 28 01)

_ 12 ____ 7.17 _______ 18 01 _ 17 02 _ 1918

_ 13 ____ 7.12 _______ 03 01 _ 02 02 _ 2007 *

_ 14 ____ 7.06 _______ 06 01 _ 05 02 _ 1846

_t15 ____ 6.98 _______ 30 01 _ 29 02 _ 1872

_t15 ____ 6.98 _______ 13 01 _ 12 02 _ 2008

_t17 ____ 6.94 _______ 29 01 _ 28 02 _ 1945 (6.96 30 01 to 01 03)

_t17 ____ 6.94 _______ 29 01 _ 28 02 _ 1961 (6.96 30 01 to 01 03)

_ 19 ____ 6.90 _______ 01 01 _ 31 01 _ 1733 (or higher, no daily data)

_ 20 ____ 6.85 _______ 29 01 _ 28 02 _ 2022

_ 21 ____ 6.84 _______ 29 01 _ 28 02 _ 1998 (6.94 30 01 to 01 03)

_ 22 ____ 6.82 _______ 01 01 _ 31 01 _ 1975 * 

_ 23t____ 6.80 _______ 13 01 _ 12 02 _ 1866

_ 23t____ 6.80 _______ 04 01 _ 03 02 _ 1898

_ 25 ____ 6.75 _______ 29 01 _ 28 02 _ 1739 (est)

_ 26 ____ 6.73 _______ 03 01 _ 02 02 _ 1884

_ 27 ____ 6.70 _______ 01 01 _ 31 01 _ 1983 * (6.80 30 12 to 29 01)

_ 28 ____ 6.67 _______ 12 01 _ 11 02 _ 1804 

_ 29t____ 6.65 _______ 29 01 _ 28 02 _ 1926 (6.68 30 12 to 29 01)

_ 29t____ 6.65 _______ 29 01 _ 28 02 _ 1750 (est)

_ 31 ____ 6.64 _______ 05 01 _ 04 02 _ 2020

_ 32 ____ 6.59 _______ 11 01 _ 10 02 _ 1938 

_ 33 ____ 6.58 _______ 19 01 _ 18 02 _ 1817

_ 34t____ 6.50 _______ 01 01 _ 31 01 _ 1686 (or higher, no daily data)

_ 34t____ 6.50 _______ 29 01 _ 28 02 _ 2023 

_ 36 ____ 6.47 _______ 29 01 _ 28 02 _ 1995

_ 37 ____ 6.45 _______ 05 01 _ 04 02 _ 1993 (6.45 also 10 01 to 09 02)

_ 38t____ 6.40 _______ 01 01 _ 31 01 _ 1875

_ 38t____ 6.40 _______ 23 01 _ 22 02 _ 2016 (see notes re Dec 2015-Jan 2016)

_ 38t____ 6.40 _______ 01 01 _ 31 01 _ 1736 (or higher, no daily data)

_ 41t____ 6.30 _______ 18 01 _ 17 02 _ 1923

_ 41t____ 6.30 _______ 01 01 _ 31 01 _ 1932

 

2019 below 6.1 to end of Feb, was 7.0 for 3 Feb to 5 mar and 7.8 for 7 Feb to 9 mar.

* See Jan 1834 and 1983 above, increases by taking just two or three days from Dec 1833) ... Three other cases above improved by adding in 7 to 10  Dec days, so even if we were to say a min of 21/31 days must be in Jan, would be 25 Dec 1920 to 24 Jan 1921, 23 Dec 2006 to 22 Jan 2007 and 22 Dec 1974 - 21 Jan 1975 (averages increase to 7.51 for 1920-21 and 1974-75 and 7.33 for 2006-07). For Jan 1916, the only entrant also exclusively (no Dec or Feb boosts possible) a calendar month (to be fair, no February could be), using any part of Dec 1915 did not boost its result either. Another interval starting in late Dec was 23 Dec 1975 to 22 Jan 1976 (7.64) but this rapidly declined to values below 6 by 1-31 Jan 1976. 

Of course higher averages persist into Jan 2016 from Dec 2015, the first average to fall below 8.0 is 15 Dec 2015 to 14 Jan 2016, averages then stay above 7.0 for just two days, and level off around 5.7 before a secondary peak of 6.4 for 23 Jan to 22 Feb 2016. 

List was cross-checked against monthly averages. Jan 1686 average 6.5 would place it in list for at least 6.50. 

Edited February 21 by Roger J Smith

[TillyS]

Can someone remind me what is the record February CET? And is that under threat?

 

[North-Easterly Blast]

 TillyS The all time February CET record is 7.9, set way back in 1779.  This is actually one of if not the oldest all time monthly record in the CET I believe.

[North-Easterly Blast]

 Roger J SmithMany thanks for all your hard work in looking through the daily CET data from 1772 to assess all this; it must have taken many hours.  With the CET for the last 23 days standing at 7.6 or thereabouts, and with more mild weather to come over the next week, the spell January 21st to February 20th this year will at least be one of the warmest 31 day CET periods on record in January and February, and it could even get close to the all time record in 2002.

[TillyS]

 North-Easterly Blast Thank you. Wow.

Under threat, possibly, but a long way to go this month and it doesn’t take much of a synoptic switch at this time of year to hammer down the temperatures, as we saw last month.

[Summer Sun]

7.6c to the 12th

3.8c above the 61 to 90 average
2.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

Not a lot of recent work, I constructed the tables a while ago so I just needed to find the top values. Later on I will post a list of years that would be "record warm months" if we didn't have a calendar and every 31 day interval counted the same. It includes all the familiar cases of course, but there are one or two surprise entries. 

[WYorksWeather]

Probably another small drop after today I would have thought, then a rise tomorrow and especially Thursday, which might have a shot at the warmest day for mean CET of the year so far. Widespread maxima to 14C or 15C in the CET region, and minima generally no lower than 8C or 9C.

I think a record break will come down to whether the GFS or ECM ensembles end up being correct, with GFS much more keen yesterday anyway on a potential cold snap to round out the meteorological winter, and ECM much less so.

Anyone 6C and up I think is still in with a decent shout. Below that seems very unlikely now.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield to down to 6.7C +2.1C above average. Rainfall unchanged.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

 Summer8906 prior to 2015, the record CET for both December and February was 0.1C either side of 8C. (December 1934 8.1C and Feb 1779 7.9C)

Then December 2015 came along and blows the record sky high with 9.6C.

Given what we are witnessing with these pulses of incredibly mild air, I think the 7.9C record is under serious threat in the near future.

The end of this month is looking cooler, so it may be safe this year, but can anyone provide one of those running GFS estimates?

Edited February 14 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Summer8906]

 BlueSkies_do_I_see Just imagine what we would get if 1779's synoptics were repeated this year. (Not sure what they were, whether it was a mild and wet month like this one, or a dry sunny month like 1998 or 2019).

[North-Easterly Blast]

 BlueSkies_do_I_see It is often difficult to give an accurate forecast for temperatures more than around five to seven days in advance, as the further ahead you look, the less accurate forecasting charts become, so consequently temperature forecasts are then not accurately predictable.

[Weather-history]

 Summer8906

 

It was exceptionally dry, infact the first 3 months of 1779 were exceptionally dry, just 44mm or so by the start of April. That's is truely remarkable, granted you might question the data of the time but it is there in the Hadley data.

I have done research in the newspapers from that period and I'm surprised there is little info. I would have thought given how agriculturally dependent we were at the time, that there was not more reports on the drought and it was a drought. 

Edited February 14 by Weather-history

[Derecho]

 Weather-history This is backed up by the SLP observations for that month which were very high (London and Paris). Suggests a February 1998 type month synoptically. There was some analysis done which suggests the Feb 1779 CET may be an overestimate though.

Oddly January 1779 was even more anticyclonic but that ended up with a CET well below average.

Edited February 14 by Derecho