Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Harsh Climate]

Come on ECM you got this  

240H 

[Tim Bland]

Good end to ECM for midlands & North wales ….

Edited January 29 by Tim Bland

[blizzard81]

WEDGES MAKE SLEDGES!

[ICE COLD]

@Harsh Climate if that’s a good chart to you then you’re very easy to please . 192 and 216 are not great , for Scotland maybe . But it’s just wishy washie cold all very . Don’t take this the wrong way by the way I’m just saying how it is . 

[nick sussex]

The good news .

The ECM gets to a decent synoptic set up by day ten for coldies .

The bad news it’s at day ten and is more jam tomorrow .

I think coldies are generally worn out by the winter so far and are now very cynical and dubious of any promising outputs at that range .

[northwestsnow]

MUCH betterEC det ....

We can only hope ...

[Mike Poole]

Good slider on the ECM at T240:

Probably not cold enough for the south, but will be for snow in the north.  This sort of wedge scenario looks plausible quite soon, I think.  

But, seeing the posts berating the other models, I don’t think it is reasonable to expect too much earlier than day 10 yet, the MJO is a) possibly being under modelled, and b) has a lag time with it anyway.  So I’m actually expecting the model output to improve as that comes in range and it counts down.  

Edited January 29 by Mike Poole

[tight isobar]

  @ICE COLD - if a shabby PM incursion is the best we can hope for then I’ll hang up my hat this season

[Harsh Climate]

  @ICE COLD

Mate ECM 240H says different 

That is a wonderful set-up, a cold easterly about to be drawn in.

Not sure where you are coming from with your analysis of the 192h chart as it is clearly primed for cold.

Edited January 29 by Harsh Climate

[Tim Bland]

Wouldn’t worry about the placement of the cold / snow boundary for now. It will change loads, just have to hope the theme continues and gathers momentum. Anywhere in the uk could be in the centre of this in 10 days time

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

if that’s a good chart to you then you’re very easy to please . 192 and 216 are not great , for Scotland maybe . But it’s just wishy washie cold all very . Don’t take this the wrong way by the way I’m just saying how it is . 

You’re making a serious mistake just focusing on UK. Look at bigger picture ECM 12z is best run in 2 weeks? Trop vortex vacates from Greenland, euro heights eroding to south, heights opening up in North Atlantic possibly MJO related. It shows it doesn’t require spectacular blocking to drastically changes our fortunes. 

[sebastiaan1973]

  @Daniel* i agree with you. Together with GFS oper some days later, they seem to me excellent charts (besides far away)

[mulzy]

  @Tim Bland Let's hope the precipitation doesn't go into northern France like last time!  

[TillyS]

Come now folks let’s be realistic. The ECM is nothing spectacular. It’s broadly zonal but with a  ‘possible’ vague hint of meridional zonality at Day 10. It is not opening the portal to a spectacular easterly or anything else drool-worthy.

All this ‘it only takes a small tweak to change our fortunes’ is wishcasting. Nothing wrong with that, but the evidence in the model outputs remains pretty scanty. GFS / UKMO / ECM are all for now fairly poor pickings for UK cold.

It may change but please let’s keep this as evidence-based as possible. Cool heads, eyes, and hearts needed lest we lead ourselves into grief.

Edited January 29 by TillyS

[damianslaw]

More varied fayre from the models this eve at the 5-6 day timescale, but they continue to show an emergent theme as we move through first week of Feb, which has been signalled for a number of days now, and that is the movement of the polar vortex towards scandi, but iberian heights remain stubborn to the south. The UK trapped in a no mans land between the colder polar air trying to dig south but the mild air to the air seeking to keep its claws in. End result the polar jet front making a beeline for the UK, with low heights ingressing in from the SW. Indeed not far off a 'col' set up. ECM builds strong heights to the NW and I can see a path for the atlantic trough engaging the scandi trough to become a euro trough in time. A slow evolution to something very different from now, but there is a gain in traction to some form of northern blocking in time. 

[TEITS]

Yet again GEFS control follows the operational.

Mean almost touching -5C towards the latter part of the run.

Maybe its me but i'm puzzled by some of the posts. I am seeing the greatest opportunity for a significant cold, snowy spell of weather so far this winter. I feel our luck is about to change and my instincts are telling me the beast is going to be let out of it's siberian cage during the 2nd week of Feb.

If you cannot see what is so special about the ECM then I give up!

Edited January 29 by TEITS

[Daniel*]

14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think coldies are generally worn out by the winter so far and are now very cynical and dubious of any promising outputs at that range .

What will be said though February will be ultimate test of seasonal models and the winter really as a whole. It was this month the seasonal models went to town with potential for prolonged cold spell and more durable northern blocking. Not other months where cyclonic Atlantic dominated weather was more favoured and that has verified in most part. Hopefully late winter can restore some faith in NWP which has taken a knock. 

[Paul White.]

  @mulzy well if that happens then it brings the cold air further south. Which brings more people into the game. 

[TillyS]

  @TEITS Neither the control nor the operational get much below 0C the whole run, and the mean is barely -5C out in far flung FI. How is that ‘the greatest opportunity for a significant cold etc. etc.’ when we had genuinely spectacular charts 3 weeks ago? The ECM threw out some stellar charts, which it has to be said downgraded as they always seem to do.

Perhaps you and others will be right about gut feeling and luck but in terms of the model outputs themselves, the evidence isn’t really supportive. For now. This may change, although upstream teleconnnections haven’t really proved much more productive so far this winter.

[ICE COLD]

@Daniel* @Harsh Climate fair play it did end well . Maybe I’m just fed up with this winter because with all the great signals and hype it’s been a proper let down . Hopefully EC is on the right lines . My only problem is pressure is to high to the south And the lows will slide to far north .

[Harsh Climate]

  @ICE COLD

''My only problem is pressure is too high to the south And the lows will slide to far north''

The ECM is the perfect example of how cold polar air can dig further and further south pushing the stubborn high south in tandem, especially with the aid of an undercutting system from the West.

Edited January 29 by Harsh Climate

[bluearmy]

If you like the ec op then you’ll lurve the control ….

looking at the stamps of snow cover by day 13, there aren’t too many members in agreement 

Edited January 29 by bluearmy

[Daniel*]

23 minutes ago, TillyS said:

Neither the control nor the operational get much below 0C the whole run, and the mean is barely -5C out in far flung FI. How is that ‘the greatest opportunity for a significant cold etc. etc.’ when we had genuinely spectacular charts 3 weeks ago? The ECM threw out some stellar charts, which it has to be said downgraded as they always seem to do.

Perhaps you and others will be right about gut feeling and luck but in terms of the model outputs themselves, the evidence isn’t really supportive. For now. This may change, although upstream teleconnnections haven’t really proved much more productive so far this winter.

This is unfair… cold weather was identified in January weeks in advance the timing of onset was also correct how it unravelled is another discussion the MJO lost amplitude this was not foreseen by models at beginning, but to say the teleconnections have been useless is totally wrong it helps give a broad picture not a back yard perspective. It doesn’t tell you if you’re going to see a big dumping of snow. I’d rather say you go by gut than anything else, it’s what experience taught you? Well weather forecasting does not work like that that’s not forecasting. Scientific explanations have been outlined you’re the one purposely ignoring them as junk.

Edited January 29 by Daniel*

[sebastiaan1973]

Excellent EC46! 

[bluearmy]

Lots of good news in the 46 

Southerly tracking jet 

Atlantic ridging to out nw 

cold surface temps showing post week 2 (unusual) 

hints of an ssw - at the least a weaker flow high up