Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[MJB]

And here is today's straw clutching exercise  

[Kasim Awan]

  @Daniel* Strong signal? You mean a strong signal from one run. That isn't a strong signal overall.

[Daniel*]

6 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Strong signal? You mean a strong signal from one run. That isn't a strong signal overall.

Wrong, it’s taken from EPS mean and has been quite consistent of late of scrubbing euro heights. 

[Daniel*]

Using 10th Feb to illustrate the previous three EPS means oldest to newest. Becoming increasingly clear it will become more cyclonic in Europe.

 

MSLP in Madrid …. 1035mb to ~1015mb good signal for wetter weather down there…

[Ice Day]

What's that saying about it always being darkest before dawn.... well, it's currently very very dark!

Awful overnight operationals and a slight step back on colder members from the ensembles in deepest FI, but there are still a few showing something of interest.

That said, we still have around 5 weeks of decent winter left, so there is time for it to change.  But it needs to get its skates on.

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

It looks a shift west with the whole pattern at 168..we might benefit from this..let's see.the most frustrating chart ever at 180 right in the prelifirry of the cold stuff..I know I keep repeating myself but it happens every year in uk!

Edited January 30 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[TillyS]

  @Daniel* That is not a strong signal for Euro heights to dissipate. In fact, it’s still sticking around at the end of your sequence:

From run to run the high may sometimes displace or weaken but the persistence of this Iberian high is something we cannot dismiss with mere wishful thinking. We need to see consistent runs, output after output, across all 3 main models for us to claim there is a signal, let alone a strong one.

 

[swfc]

Could really do with an uptick ie some heighths to the nnw.Becoming a bit tedious atm but we live in hope

[Johnp]

Pinch of salt required, but a much improved 6z

Edited January 30 by Johnp

[MJB]

  @Johnp

Yep Promising 

 

[Nick2373]

  @TillyS   End sequence being the 14th February 16 days out way way out in FI Not really reliable time frame.    

[Daniel*]

8 minutes ago, TillyS said:

From run to run the high may sometimes displace or weaken but the persistence of this Iberian high is something we cannot dismiss with mere wishful thinkin

I’m just reading the output how you perceive it is another matter. These are the very basics as far as I’m concerned. Let me post this again. There’s an already quite a robust signal for a fall of pressure in Iberian peninsula, wetter weather from ~10th Feb there is no wishful thinking about that. Let these charts speak for themselves. 
 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Cold air really taking its time to drift south..you will probably find the whole pattern collapse by the time it does so...at 240..we need trough desruption at 258..that low is way too organised

Edited January 30 by Lukesluckybunch
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[MJB]

  @Lukesluckybunch Cold air really taking its time to drift south..you will probably find the whole pattern collapse by the time it does so...at 240

150 miles further south and we would be in business

 

[Gowon]

Heights lowering to our south:

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, MJB said:

150 miles further south and we would be in business

We look to be on our way at 270+..winds starting too veer easterly

[BarnetBlizzard]

I've noticed that wedge of high pressure to our northwest around Iceland being suggested on a few runs. If we can get the wedge there then the low pressure from the Atlantic gets forced south-east and it could bring in easterly winds for a time. 

 

[Daniel*]

Almighty differences between this run and ECM 00z turns wintry in Scotland from day 6. 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

cracker inbound.

[sebastiaan1973]

UKMO, GFS & ECMWF at 168h (162H, GFS)

GFS differs from the other two, especially around Iceland. 

[Jacob]

Looks like the PV is gaining again which could scupper the cold before it even gets south

[feb1991blizzard]

Here comes the Jan 79 redux.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Possible link up with the Atlantic ridge...and weak.heights around iceland ooks nice and clean also off the eastern seabord..hopefully no LP to ruin things!

Edited January 30 by Lukesluckybunch
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[Johnp]

  @feb1991blizzard It’s a stonker. Bank!

[Ice Day]

It's a beautiful run in deep FI, it may even raise @northwestsnow spirits 

 

Enjoy this run while you can, as it will be showing something different on the 12's