Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[minus10]

Pretty strong signal for the trough next week on the gefs

..also note the op and control in tandem for this period on the 850s..

..look forward to the eps later..

 

[Chesil View]

 ICE COLD A southward correction would be nice.

Often happens. We'll wait and see.

[That ECM]

Just looked at the output. Ukmo T168 for many would be very nice. 
 

Right, going to read thread and see excited posts I expect.

[winterof79]

Hold your horses  Op going a bit early but control joining party around 10th

Trends....

Edited February 1 by winterof79

[Mark wheeler]

Am I about to be rewarded for successfully completing dry January .
 

ECM 120

Beers in if we can repeat UKMO 168

[Duane S.]

‘Iberian High’ removal looks a safe bet now… (has looked for a while TBF)

 

This is at the extreme end but isn’t without support in the ENS. A very unusual chart and will send much delight to the snow starved Alps…

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ecm not having it..way too far north with the low!

[mulzy]

 Lukesluckybunch

Yes, no wedge at day 6 so day 7 is not a surprise.  Lots of twists and turns to come - a week in an eternity in NWP!

[Harsh Climate]

 Lukesluckybunch

So looking at the big 3 for Thursday's snowstorm that may not even happen at all lol :

GFS ~ Heavy Snow for Central UK

UKMO ~ Heavy snow for Southern Areas

ECM ~ Snow for Shetland..

There you go, this is why any Ramps should be on the back burner for now. Very encouraging developments today (Snow chances edging closer to the reliable timeframe), but still a long way to go for any specifics.

Edited February 1 by Harsh Climate

[Ali1977]

T192 looks primed, on par with the GFS. And with UKMO cold by day 7 we have a general consensus as to where we are heading - wintery nirvana ️

[Harsh Climate]

One thing does look certain though, it is going to get colder from the North later next week

 

[Mike Poole]

 Harsh Climate There’s two things in play now, one is the wedge (or not in case of ECM) and whether that will result in snow in just a week’s time - and if so, where?  I think that is a separate issue as to the longer term evolution (Euro trough and blocking to the NW) but if the wedge verifies it will certainly help bring the Euro trough a reality sooner.  But it should happen anyway, in the no wedge scenario, the models will just find another route if that destination is the one driven by the background signals.

ECM T216, and the northerly is in, courtesy of the flimsiest ridge to our west imaginable!

[northwestsnow]

12z EC 

SNOW for many 

 

[blizzard81]

 northwestsnow This is exactly what we need to be seeing from now onwards as a trend. It's now or never. 

[northwestsnow]

EC 12Z = 15CM locally..

Personally I'd prefer the pattern further south so more get a chance ...

 

[nick sussex]

After the GFS and UKMO the ECM is a bit meh .

Not a disaster but it blows up the low and any frontal snow is blown away with it .

After that it’s likely to turn into a shortwave and phasing frenzy as a while bloated mess of low heights sits over the UK .

Not impressed ! 

[phil nw.]

 Mike Poole

Yes ECM gets the cold south a bit later than gfs/ukmo but essentially the same trend.The lack of northern heights means we are subject to these micro changes and in this case  it takes a little longer for the any upstream mini ridge to force the next low on a more southerly track.

Just noticeable that there appears to be no development of any heights further north after the initial cold gets in so the colder uppers look like being modified later on,so maybe a cold snap rather than anything long lasting based on gefs.

Disappointing if this turns out to be the case.

[ANYWEATHER]

28 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

One thing does look certain though, it is going to get colder from the North later next week

 

Well ,that's a good job ,not really out of place in February

[blizzard81]

 northwestsnow Nah! Just be selfish and greedy. It's much more fun

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Personally I'd prefer the pattern further south so more get a chance ...

I agree ..the jet further South sink be ideal..with such weak heights to our north and northwest..we are always at risk of milder air encroaching from the southwest!..there isn't much too hold the cold in place really

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

After the GFS and UKMO the ECM is a bit meh .

Not a disaster but it blows up the low and any frontal snow is blown away with it .

After that it’s likely to turn into a shortwave and phasing frenzy as a while bloated mess of low heights sits over the UK .

Not impressed ! 

Are you not thinking it could be cold and snowy Nick into day 10..with cold slack airflow over the uk?

[johncam]

So where do we go from here 

[Lukesluckybunch]

It's reminding me a little bit of the January cold spell ,with the proper cold over scandi..reluctant too drift over the north sea

[Harsh Climate]

 Mike Poole

I think It does look likely now that there will be a low pressure bringing in colder air behind it mid ~ late next week, could have snow on it's northern edge, perhaps an epic amount for some. Whether we see this snowfall or not from the initial arrival of the low pressure remains to be seen. There may even be some back edge snow or increasingly wintry showers/snow being dragged in from the right flank as it clears.

After that it does look like we get a reasonably cold North to NE flow, but with such low 500s you would expect showers to be of snow down to quite low levels, especially where there is intensity. I Just hope like the last spell this potential NE flow doesn't just become a straight northerly leaving most of us bone dry. That would be my biggest concern even at this range.. I expect this initial cold plunge to last a couple of days before synoptic change/ low pressure spawns or tries to come in from the Atlantic. Like you say there is only a flimsy block, surely this is what will happen?

I have a sneaky feeling looking at how far the Azores high has been flung South and that any resulting zonality, low pressure train will have a NW ~ SE tilt on it, then bringing the risk of sliders and more snowfall with pretty decent -uppers never far away. And as you say with favorable background signals, we might have many routes to cold/snow, so High pressure/ wedges could spawn up in favorable positions offering reloads or something better.

I'm feeling confident about this and think snow chances could pop up just about anywhere late next week after the initial pattern change.

[blizzard81]

 Lukesluckybunch I agree. All very humpy and bumpy. I've noticed this happens alot these days. No clean evolution and advection of cold air like we used to see in similar circumstances.