Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[northwestsnow]

 feb1991blizzard Ukmo way too north though ..

[feb1991blizzard]

 northwestsnow

Haven't seen 168, 144 didn't look dissimilar from GFS, we don't want anymore stalling out west re-invigorating the low, yes it could give a more widespread dumping but it also risks rain.

[northwestsnow]

 feb1991blizzard trust me we don't want ukmo ..

horrid

Edited February 2 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

GEFS mean looks good at 156

[feb1991blizzard]

 that was just the starter, now comes the main course, proper cold spell in-bound.

Hemispheric pattern sir! - ties in with the 46

Edited February 2 by feb1991blizzard

[northwestsnow]

Control is awesome

[northwestsnow]

Mean day 8

[northwestsnow]

Absolutely delighted with ICON GEM GFS ( GEFS)

 

[SLEETY]

Any chance a cold spell won't downgrade when it's gets nearer, mild spells never do, do they

[Lukesluckybunch]

41 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

trust me we don't want ukmo ..

It may well have got there by day 10..gem is the  one we want 10/10!! gfs 7/10

[northwestsnow]

 Lukesluckybunch

Some great charts this morning

[Lukesluckybunch]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Mean day 8

Not bad as a mean..but slightly further east with it!

[northwestsnow]

 Lukesluckybunch mean is colder at day 9 than 18z GEFS

[Lukesluckybunch]

Control looking a bit slidy..around day 9

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS 0z is a stonker.

North of the m4!

[feb1991blizzard]

 northwestsnow  Lukesluckybunch

GEFS downgrades longjevity, lets hope for reload by 384

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS downgrades longjevity, lets hope for reload by 384

Between the 12-14th the op is on its own in terms of cold!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Shortwave far less intense..at 96 on ecm..hopefully a cleaner push of cold from the north..let's see

[Lukesluckybunch]

Wedges to appear around iceland hopefully at day 8..this seems to be going on a cold direction at least!..this run has the L word attached too it..L for longevity..heights backing further out west rather then around iberia..a slow process ,but we could be in for the biggest prizes here!

Edited February 2 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[Ali1977]

Cold and snowy looking ECM at day 216, by now the north of England and Scotland mostly white too!! 

[KTtom]

Fax chart at 120 a nice visual illustration not just for UK but Europe regarding the boundary between mild and cold...im in Northern Finland as I type and its just turned very cold after a reletively 'mild' start to the week (0 to -2 now -12) 

 

[Dennis]

how the winter as sudden is back to the games 

controled by strong MJO signs 

Edited February 2 by Dennis

[IDO]

The upcoming pattern change. At D9 on the three models:

The trough looks nailed, so we are looking at variations on a theme. This also applies to the ensembles on the GEFS and GEM.

This will last a few days before another pattern change to a more amplified NH. GEFS and GEM D8-16 mean:

 

Alaskan Ridge and heights rising close to the UK in that Atlantic sector. The Arctic high looks a player as well.

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

The 240 ecm..reminds me of the gfs ens..around that same period..the jet trying to creep back North..at some point you would think we will need some kind of blocking to form to keep the pattern going..or can someone tell me with a weak pv can we still get something special?

[offerman]

 KTtom I think that’s the longest weather front I have ever seen!