Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[nick sussex]

 Tim Bland

I am worried . I viewed ICON first then the GFS and GEM in that order and thought very nice then that woeful UKMO output followed by the ECM last.

Anyway lets hope the UKMO does another u-turn this evening .

Edited February 2 by nick sussex

[bluearmy]

Way too complex a scenario for the nwp to suss out atm 

two bites at the cherry next week 

Thereafter still looking like Atlantic ridge and sceuro trough although the atlantic ridge is further east on the eps than ideal

geps the best by day 15/16

events in the strat may have Aaron back soon - signs of a displacement followed by split and the momentum from gfs is for that split to be pretty much all on the Asian side.  With a strongly coupled strat/trop profile - seen today on the gfs back end .

[jules216]

The last chance saloon I believe is the "possible" Wave breaking outcome behind the low Pressure systems from the west at days 8-9. They initially advect a veru mind air in to central Europe later 4-5 days the cold miraculously switchwes to North/Central Európe. How this happens is if it ever does is one of the most difficult things in forecasts to Guess. It could easily turn in to dry cold scenario in central Europe and dry and frosty UK under high Pressure. But looking at spinning lows in Western Europe days 6-10 its becoming difficult to imagine a sudden shift of overal contitions. 

[CoventryWeather]

Models really struggling with the disruption of the trough in the Atlantic early next week. 

ICON and GEM definitely the best outputs this morning, but it's going to be a fair few days until modelling has got the low in the Atlantic right. 

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T120-T168:

Looking at the T168, they differ in the position of the trough, cluster 1 has it west like UKMO (21 members), cluster 2 goes with the op (17 members) and cluster 3 has it deeper more like the GEM (13 members).  

T192-T240:

Here, cluster 3 (16 members) has the most northerly line of attack with a deeper trough.

T264+:

Cluster 3 is the one we want here (16 members) with a very good strong block in a great position.  Cluster 2 develops a ridge in the Atlantic and pushes it too far east, cluster 1, despite being -NAO retains a westerly flow to the UK.

[Ice Day]

Extremely positive overnight runs (I'm shunning the UKMO), but the run of the morning goes to the GEM. The 850's for days 8-10 are stunning

  

So we're not looking out to day 10, the ECM and GEFS mean at day 8

 

So we have the GEM at one extreme and the UKMO at the other.  But, we're back in the game and I'd gladly take that after a couple of moribund model-watching weeks!

 

[jules216]

After seing this i am quite confident of the cold March.

[Chesil View]

Things moving in the right direction for somewhere in England and Wales to see some worthwhile snowfall later next week/next weekend. 

Exactly where still very much to be decided at this stage. But good  to see us back in the game.

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,Gem this morning showing northern blocking and a peach for cold lovers,very positive looking charts this morning for a cold push over the UK with snow a strong possibility.If this scenario happens I will take my hat off  to Exeter /Glosea.

[TEITS]

Just putting aside the finer details in the short term. I cannot help but stare at the N Hemisphere chart on the 0z GFS at +384.

 

A 1060mb high pressure over the North Pole with the PV being shattered to pieces with the main part of this being shunted miles  away to Asia.

So as it stands I remain confident that the potential cold spell starting around 7th-10th Feb could be just the start of a period of winds frequently from the N & E with below average temps and snowfall. Pretty much as the Met O have been saying for a while. This pattern change could well dominate much of the month.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Nice ICON at 120..cold air not too far away..heights draining away over France and spain!

[That ECM]

 TillyS I think the commentary ref the specific chart is accurate.

The disappointment comes from someone commenting on what a T216 chart is showing and think right must get down the shop and but some carrots for the nose.

it is known that T120 and beyond is JFF. 
 

Take the ukmo yesterday evening and this morning. Placement of the low 150 miles further north and the difference is huge.

You would hope that when people view the T216 ecm they think that would be a nice option let’s see if it gets down to the reliable.

To suggest that someone correctly analyse a chart and for someone to say it leads to huge disappointment is imo wrong. People need to self regulate their feelings based on all information.

When background information suggests that cold is a possibility then it doesn’t happen there is a pile of people effectively saying “well where’s my snow?”

At this time there is a possibility of cold as shown via gem ecm there is also the ukmo which shows how it might not happen but it’s not beneficial if someone correctly says what a chart would deliver if people can’t think well it’s in FI so we will have to wait and see.

[AO-]

 Mike Poole

after a dump of snow I wouldn't be worried about cluster 2. Hp over UK. would lead to exceptional cold possibly when there is snow cover. UK has a better position atm than the continent, given the clusters. Personally I would prefer cluster 2

[SLEETY]

Gem is amazing looks like 1947 with those bitter easterlies, so of course it won't verify as the colder runs never do. 

Turning colder is the only thing that seems certain after that, too far out for depth of cold and snow chances. 

[johnholmes]

Not a full post but just showing the latest NOAA 6-14 day charts. Both have a gneral rather cold westerly 500 MB pattern. Not yet showing any signal for deep cold from a northerly point.

The contour over southern England on the 6-10 day is 534 DM which is quite cold so even lower further north. Any ppn in the north would likely be snow and over most hills further south possibly lower at times depending on the actual synoptic pattern.

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

16 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Gem is amazing looks like 1947 with those bitter easterlies, so of course it won't verify as the colder runs never do. 

Them uppers on the gem are amazing..12-14!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Looking really good 6z the low further south.!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Is the gfs..taking the gem route!?

[Lukesluckybunch]

Over before it started in this run?Azores high wants too ruin things

[Mike Poole]

GFS 6z has very nice wedge at T144, helps the cold flood south by T180:

[nick sussex]

I wouldn’t worry about the later stages of the GFS 06 hrs run.

The important thing is it hasn’t followed the UKMO earlier .

Ironically as the UKMO op went backwards the MOGREPS 00hrs looks better .

[IDO]

 Lukesluckybunch

This is not a blocking trough; it is a mobile pattern and has been modelled to be a 3-5-day episode as it is eased east. The GFS op is just one end of the spectrum, and I suspect it is overplaying the height rise and how deep the trough drops into N Africa!

The deeper the trough falls the more WAA blows up that Azores mini-ridge. Tone that down and it may resemble GEM to a greater extent.

[CoventryWeather]

The GFS06z also looks towards Scandi, similar to the GEM, although it's not really clean with it. 

Bit messy over Europe at day 10 but way out in FI. Still uncertain on how much the low disrupts next week. But again a clear trend south on the GFS. 

[TEITS]

A classic E,ly is going to develop on the 06Z.

[Ali1977]

Yes please