Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[northwestsnow]

 MJB

well we hope ...

Really hope EC is a good run ..

[bluearmy]

 northwestsnow ec46 seven day showing interest starts from 12th/19th seven day period. Atm we can’t see beyond 9th/16th on the ens. Geps already looks in line with the ec46 on this timescale. Gefs and eps getting there.  Not sure Torquay hotel window etc etc ….

[Cold Winter Night]

 northwestsnow

Check the panels for GEFS 0z/6z and EPS 0z and you'll see that many members were very similar to UKMO 168h with their NH/Atlantic pattern.
Then look at the same members again in the extended and they develop a wide variety of blocking.
As I'm writing this GFS is doing that again as well.

There's a small chance of a more wintry sweep around 144/168h, but the big pattern shift is found deeper in the extended, and I expect that 12z GEFS and EPS will not really move away from that.

[BarnetBlizzard]

This is the mean precip chart at 174h on GFS:

I wouldn't give up hope quite yet...

[Ali1977]

 BarnetBlizzard that precip mean is way more important than a UKMO at 168, not sure why the negativity!! To hate a mean at day 7 showing snow is quite some signal 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

well we hope ...

Really hope EC is a good run ..

I wouldn’t over expect from attempt one but still a fair chance. The 12z’s haven’t been great thus far 

[northwestsnow]

Lets see how EC views things ...

I'd like the pattern further south than UKMO the miserable !!

Edited February 2 by northwestsnow

[phil nw.]

At the moment I am not too impressed with the models wrt sustained cold next week.

Some may get lucky with snow but it's all very marginal in such a mobile cyclonic setup.

No northern blocking to sustain a cold feed so the coldest temperatures will mix out under these conditions.

Maybe this is just the taster for something better beyond mid month but for now the current output is all a bit underwhelming until those Northern heights appear.

[feb1991blizzard]

 

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm really struggling to see what EC 46 is seeing too..

This.

 

 

[Kasim Awan]

GFS control probably produces over 75cm of level snow over the Midlands next weekend.

[Mike Poole]

 Cold Winter Night That’s a very good point.  Any snow end next week would be a bonus that has never been guaranteed, it is possible with the right wedge/slider combination, but the real interest, and what the teleconnections, and ECM 46 have been suggesting begins w/b 12th Feb.

I am with others in having the jitters about all that getting downgraded before it reaches the reliable, but as yet there is no specific reason why that should happen other than Sod’s Law (which has tremendous forecasting accuracy when it comes to UK winters, it has to be said).

[stratty]

 

The south has not witnessed something like this in modern times! 

[That ECM]

 Ali1977 it is and no coldie will hate the mean. I’m just waiting to see. A good ecm won’t mean it’s nailed but would be welcome.

[Paul_1978]

 northwestsnow To be fair the pros have simply said there will be high pressure around, but could not say where. I don't think anything is "unravelling" as there was no firm situation to unravel. Personally looking forward to what next week brings and then take it form there

[northwestsnow]

 Mike Poole kinda hoping MJO 7  might start influencing things day 10 to 15 but would like to see some appetite to show some kind of attempt at Atlantic ridges ..

[cheeky_monkey]

 stratty as an unbiased observer looks cold and wet with some sleety wet snow on the back edge as it moves away

[stratty]

 cheeky_monkey Cheeky monkey! lol

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,Gem once again pick of the bunch keeping the Atlantic low further south keeping the south of the UK in the colder air around 168hrs with snow on the agenda,GFS similar after a short mild interlude in the south.I think we have been here before with the south missing out on the white stuff,still uncertainties regarding this time scale let alone after in regards to pressure rise position after the low pressure heads into the continent.Met Office extended still sticking to a northerly after low pressure so not sure where this predicted high will form,possibly North west of the UK let’s see what ECM comes up with.

[Metwatch]

36 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

GFS control probably produces over 75cm of level snow over the Midlands next weekend.

Snowstorm of the century, attempt #2

Edited February 2 by Metwatch

[AO-]

 Kasim Awan

Here is the chart. The throughing is questionable however. Interesting times that's for sure.

 

Edited February 2 by AO-

[sheikhy]

 Sweatyman its been like this for 2 days now!!any idea why?!!its actually quite frustrating and putting me off coming here!!

[Ice Day]

GEFS mean at days 7 and 8

 

 

Not too shoddy, but plenty of water (or hopefully ice) to flower under the bridge yet.

 

[Jacob]

GEFS P10 creates a blizzard for the south on the 8th

[AO-]

It looks like more and more members are coming up with some kind of a Scandinavian hp at day 10. There is no clear signal yet, but it is in line with MJO phase 7, I would say. 

 

 

Edited February 2 by AO-

[Mike Poole]

GFS 12z has another strong reversal in the strat, -14m/s by the end:

This is gathering momentum, the impact of this would most likely felt be towards the end of the month, but the GFS 6z responded very quickly from the top down: