Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Lukesluckybunch]

10 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

UKMO looks snowy at face value but lack of cold air is concern

You thinking next weekend could be snowy...the cold takes a time reaching the South..I'm thinking late Saturday into Sunday the whole UK is cold...we get a cut off gh on the gfs right at the end!

Edited February 4 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[MJB]

A week today Control brings snow south

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

10 minutes ago, MJB said:

A week today Control brings snow south

Morning marcus..Yea the weekend signal is pretty strong on turning cold...the ens back that up!no point looking further then that for moment..

[That ECM]

Mean has improved.

[Lukesluckybunch]

12 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Mean has improved.

Yep.better ridging out west

[That ECM]

This is the trend we want to see continue. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Is this a good chart!?

[jules216]

London ensembles showing about 2 day cold snap, at the moment all hope is pinned on isolated output as it is far from ensemble support. On the face value ensemble mean on GFS Has shifted momentum towards lack luster -4 T850 mean where EPS were at -6°C t850 last night. The reason being that a lot of ensembles are getting rid of really low heights in central Europe and instead showing lack luster SE/E flow under Higher Pressure. And we are slowly easing out of winter with every single delay.

 

Edited February 4 by jules216

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ecm south!

[Ali1977]

Well well well, low moving south on the ecm 

[That ECM]

 jules216  the period of interest for me is beyond the time your chart covers. 17 out of the 31 are nice. It’s FI of course.

[Ali1977]

️

[Zero Visibility]

   

ECM same as GFS cold further south, snow for Central England.

[Ali1977]

That’ll do for us midlanders and some southerners , more to come too beyond 120

Edited February 4 by Ali1977

[Ali1977]

Noticed the UKMO had the low further south too - so I imagine similar to the ECM for snow. Big upgrades for the midlands anyway 

By T156 the ECM is awesome - 3 days of snow pretty much 

Edited February 4 by Ali1977

[Ali1977]

Moving north by 174, snow showers following on !! It’s not really cold so unsure on parameters, away from coasts should do ok! 

[Ali1977]

Decent fir many by 216 and signs of cold longevity too. 

[That ECM]

 Ali1977 There’s such a disconnect between output and professionals. That is not south winds for stow on the wold but that’s what the professionals think. The placement of the low will make such a difference to places. As I’ve said before I don’t see it for the vast majority this week but would love to be wrong.

[KTtom]

Not really seeing too much that differs from the Mets outlook to be honest, snow for northern hills as fronts associated with next weeks low push north, then some back edge snow possible anywhere as the system moves away leaving a weak northerly with snow showers around northern coasts before high pressure takes over, nothing too out the ordinary for late winter?

[jules216]

 That ECM i think its moving day by day further back, thats why i was writing about the tíme is running out. Its painfull here in central Europe to watch how low Pressure struggles to clear further east as the Russian blocking high is delaying everything. And interesting charts again only starting later. Who knows how we manage a straight NE out of Urals. Its quite frustrating watch this arrival of cold that IS still so uncertain.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Awesome ending in ecm..bitter cold arriving from the northeast..all the time heights continuing too rise around scandi...loving this output now!

Edited February 4 by Lukesluckybunch
Spelling

[northwestsnow]

Hahaha  ..

err,yes please 

[Ali1977]

 That ECM T144 suggests somewhere will get nailed though, the 12z’s could be really good - and if they are I’d expect broad brush weather warnings to be issued for Thurs onwards!! Worst case it fails then long term looks good too. My fingers are crossed for widespread snow then a freeze up

[That ECM]

 Lukesluckybunch yes it’s great viewing. Oh to get to the reliable. I will happily eat the biggest piece of humble pie anyone could serve and they can put numerous cherries on top.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Would give the ecm..8/10 only downside Is the period 168-192 the low drifted north..thought it wasn't staying to the south..other then that excellent!