Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Metwatch]

24 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Got a feeling it will be a warm Easterly though.

My guts feeling (not based so much on teleconnections or science) is that any -NAO episodes will become west based and start to draw in some very warm air with heights developing to our south east - east of us sort of thing, any point from around Mid March onwards. Time will tell soon enough though.

A March 2013 repeat I can't see happening, and the extent of the HLB that occured last March, again also can't see that being repeated next month. The knife-edge, borderline SSW events we've been having this season do not compare to the one had in February 2018 either.

Until then a poor outlook, the airmass not cold enough for any snowfall for low lying areas, so often wet with the possibility of a named storm developing, but perhaps feeling a bit more "seasonal" than of recent once the cooler polar maritime airmass arrives next Thursday.

Edited February 17 by Metwatch

[Dennis]

HP rises Greenland

[Daniel*]

The cooler and cyclonic weather is here to stay according to EPS with heights remaining withdrawn from Europe in Atlantic Ocean. I’d expect the modelling to perform much better with these more zonal patterns. 

Edited February 17 by Daniel*

[Don]

22 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Given this, I'd not be surprised to see a -AO and perhaps trending -NAO towards the middle of March. Blocking patterns potentially finally taking hold, once again, too late?

This ties in with the current Met Office forecast.  Too late?  Possibly, but I would take a repeat of 8th-10th March 2023 in an instant!!

Edited February 17 by Don

[Don]

10 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Until then a poor outlook, the airmass not cold enough for any snowfall for low lying areas, so often wet with the possibility of a named storm developing, but perhaps feeling a bit more "seasonal" than of recent once the cooler polar maritime airmass arrives next Thursday.

TBH, a 'seasonal feel' would be nice after the recent/current mildness!

[swfc]

 Dennis on the face of it a decent looking chart, . But the decent 850s seem to be eroded esp to the east/north/ northwest. Every thing atm points to nothing imo to anything interesting cold/wintry. 

[Dennis]

 winter is there (suddenly) when you dont expect it anymore 

 

[jellybaby1969]

Well my gut feeling is ...we see a below average cet for March and April..not based up on scientific / model reasoning as that has been a bit of a waste this winter.

[Dennis]

26th 

[Daniel*]

More of your classical cold zonal further on pub run, snow would be able to fall at lower levels. 

[WYorksWeather]

 Daniel* The -5C line at 850hPa won't allow snow to stick around to low levels in early March. Could be a good snow event for those at elevation though.

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, WYorksWeather said:

The -5C line at 850hPa won't allow snow to stick around to low levels in early March. Could be a good snow event for those at elevation though.

Never said anything about settling….

[WYorksWeather]

 Daniel* In that case I don't disagree!

[Metwatch]

I'm not sure many would be that interested in seeing snow and it not settling. Imho, it's comparable to watching paint dry!

 

25 minutes ago, jellybaby1969 said:

we see a below average cet for March and April.

Below 1991-20 average not difficult to achieve, but below 61-90, that would become quite difficult these days with the current warming, if the pattern doesn't bring that much reserve of cold air nearer to the UK, to then continue to make its way here for a prolonged enough period.

Edited February 17 by Metwatch

[Jason M]

 WYorksWeather Come March its all about timing. If snow starts falling during the daytime then even with -10c line it will struggle to settle, especially in the South. If you get snow on the ground though and cloud cover it can linger.

Minute sun comes out though any snow cover will vanish at speed.

[WYorksWeather]

 Jason M Yep, unless the 850s are absolutely astounding, like the BFTE 2018, in which case it can linger for a while. But you're right, we're at the time of year where to get anything that would really change people's view of this cold season you really are chasing shadows. To get something reasonably notable, like a few days of snow cover of a few centimetres widely, with sub-zero daily mean temperatures, is not easy to achieve these days even in January, let alone in early March!

[damianslaw]

Just a word on snow sticking prospects in March, certainly for north half of UK it can stick easily any point of the day and doesn't require very cold uppers, last year a case in point. We had a few inches on the 9th.. heavy snow fell on the 14th middle of day and stuck.  There are lots of other parameters when it comes to snow sticking. 

Admittedly by March chances of snow sticking reduces in showery set ups especially when the sun comes out.

Back to the models. a case of south westerlies becoming alternating westerlies and north westerlies, the latter with some bite....

Edited February 17 by damianslaw

[Don]

57 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

More of your classical cold zonal further on pub run, snow would be able to fall at lower levels. 

The trouble is, cold zonality seldom comes off these days.

[Mark wheeler]

Looks promising for the heat lovers coming up to spring, given up on winter now so let's go for some warmth. Hopefully we get 20c before 28th i think it is . Letss go ...... summer lovers 

[saintkip]

spoon that, I’m fully expecting a hot summer, time to move North.

[danm]

 damianslaw I think even in northern areas you either need elevation or cloud cover. Once the sun comes out in March it melts rapidly. I remember that distinctly during the BFTE, with -3c air temperatures and sub zero dew points the sublimation was still rapid once the sun came out. When we had cloud it didn’t melt though. 

Edited February 18 by danm

[Ricardo23]

Some slightly cooler air enter`s the UK, After Wednesday nothing dramatic, Europe also cools until the beginning of March when the warmth returns according to the 0z latest run.

[Dennis]

Good sunday all

into next weekend 

 

 

[Dennis]

when all seems lost....

Edited February 18 by Dennis

[bluearmy]

Looks like the early March ssw is gaining momentum 

Unknown at this stage if it would be an early ‘final warming’

waiting to see continuity from gfs which has indicated three displacements and one split in its last four runs.  The 00z gfs looked notable in that it downwelled the reverse flow into the lower strat (even towards 60N).  But that was the split run.