Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[MJB]

 Lukesluckybunch

GFS 198

 

ECM 192

Just another variation Luke 

[Ali1977]

If only the continent was cold 

[IDO]

 Lukesluckybunch

Yes, returning to the mean profile.No shocker. Versus 0z:

06z:  0z:  

It is not mild but is a missed opportunity if the mean verifies.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, IDO said:

 Lukesluckybunch

Yes, returning to the mean profile.No shocker. Versus 0z:

06z:  0z:  

It is not mild but is a missed opportunity if the mean verifies.

See it so often..the cold spreading down into central eastern europe..a chilly southeasterly with highs of 7/8c looks likely outcome currently in my opinion

[MJB]

 IDO

Cold is incoming 

Maybe not grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

 

Edited March 1 by MJB

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, MJB said:

Cold is incoming 

Your not wrong..possible bitter by day 10

[Lukesluckybunch]

Lovley mild sector around the uk!

[IDO]

The Scandi high is sinking from D9, so by D11:

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

The Scandi high is sinking from D9, so by D11:

Absolutely IDO..what did I just say about the cold..and where it normally goes!

[Mike Poole]

 IDO The mean won’t verify.  It can’t.  It’s the average of many physically possible runs, but that doesn’t yield a pressure pattern that is physically possible itself.

In this circumstance, it will be either one of the cold evolutions or one of the mild evolutions that have been showing on the op runs and the ensembles, and we just don’t know yet.

I do think that if it went the way of the easterly, it would need to properly persist for quite a while to develop a suitable cold pool, with the reversal in the strat, that might not be as unlikely as it sounds.

[Scandinavian High.]

 IDO probably not the outcome next run will be different hopefully better for a cold push from east wintery weather also 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Heres the mean at  132..would it not benefit us if the centre of the high..was further west?

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,northern blocking now looks 90% which is very high in terms of weather so slightly different ideas in that less cold air from the Atlantic lows will mix with the northern blocking especially in the south this may or may not happen lots of uncertainty with that scenario at present.March has a 75% of being below the average CET so generally a cold wintery month is on the cards after one of the wettest mild February on record,what you don’t get today you will sure has he’ll get tomorrow.

[Derecho]

1 minute ago, Anthony Burden said:

March has a 75% of being below the average CET

That's a brave prediction in this day and age... (depending on the average period you are looking at)

[IDO]

 Mike Poole

Yes, colder easterly or less cold (SE flow). But you could have something in between, as you imply, an easterly that never really bites. The mean suggests that the colder uppers are insignificant in the ensembles, suggesting the last few wild ECM, GEM and GFS cold easterlies are low risk. These op runs are superseded by runs closer to the mean, so I would 100% use the mean as a starting point for FI rather than a random cold op run.

 Scandinavian High.

We shall see. As we get closer to FI, hopefully, we will see a firming up of the pattern either way.

My main concern is that we are still not seeing any forcing either upstream or local, so the mean NH tPV pattern being tempered with the tPV settling in the Arctic makes getting cold south harder, D8-16 mean 0z:

[Sun Chaser]

Looks like cold dry cloudy easterlies becoming more likely, from one boring and unpleasant pattern to an even more boring and unpleasant pattern!

[Sun Chaser]

1 minute ago, Sun Chaser said:

Looks like cold dry cloudy easterlies becoming more likely, from one boring and unpleasant pattern to an even more boring and unpleasant pattern!

On further reflection, the 00z op was pretty much out on its own cold wise and average temperatures seem like the most likely fare going into March. Some sunshine would be nice but glad it's unlikely to be as bitterly cold as the 00z op suggests. Not a bad set of ens but the fact the op is on the cold side could be a sign of things to come.

[Anthony Burden]

 Derecho Hi yes you are totally correct as we can only give a 95% to 120hrs but I feel this major SSW of  which we are still learning a lot about is where I have based my opinion on,of course it is just my personal opinion.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Increased blocking on the gefs mean...in the favoured areas..I guess that's a start!

[Met4Cast]

GFS det was a rather obvious outlier unfortunately. 

There continues to be a complete lack of support for colder/notably colder weather into the UK with the majority of ensembles favouring milder weather (at least at the 850hPa level)

This comes as no surprise really given the MJOreturning to the Indian Ocean and progressing eastwards through phases not typically supportive of blocking. 

[Ali1977]

This little system swinging up from the south could produce some decent snowfall, as mentioned in the latest METO forecast and now on all high res models

[Lukesluckybunch]

We really can't trust the ukmo model..it's been so bad recently!the 12z is a big downgrade!

[andymusic]

 Lukesluckybunch while the gfs 12z just keeps on giving with another major reversal easterly on the op

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, andymusic said:

 Lukesluckybunch while the gfs 12z just keeps on giving with another major reversal easterly on the op

Surely the cold to the east at 222..can't miss us..or maybe it can

[SLEETY]

 Lukesluckybunch laughable difference between its earlier run,that had minus 8 upper air  over uk now list completely flipped showing milder weather moving North.

Models are just useless when not faced with mild weather Synoptics ,don’t expect the final outcome to be decided for days.