Milhouse
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Posts posted by Milhouse
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Its looking increasingly likely that our old friend the Azores high doesnt want to depart just yet. It edges in over the weekend and gradually transfers over to the east of the UK by midweek to set up a classic southerly plume. Upper temperatures of 15c just off the south coast in the GFS.
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A big high over the UK to start the new week on the GFS 12z.
Temperatures edging up as well
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Theres different types of cold though. On one hand you have the perishing cold easterlies that seemed to be a frequent occurence during the second half of Winter. I recall getting off the train in London one Sunday morning to a bitterly cold easterly with light snow flurries. Even walking along there was no way i was going to warm up. But then you also have the sort of day that is completely calm and sunny with temperatures barely above freezing but it still feels pleasant to the extent that after a little strenuous activity you can be in a tshirt and still feel warm enough. Cold is fine by me for a while but cold, windy and cloudy is just horrible.
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I have to agree with you there Milhouse. The July heatwave was great, but late August sunshine is my favourite. I can go out in the middle of the day for a lunchtime walk out of the office and the sun is pleasantly warm but it is not melting me like it was 6 weeks before!
I am very happy with this summer. For me it is on a par with 2006 (bearing in mind August 2006 saw a spell of gruesome cool and unsettled northerlies mid month) but falls behind 2003 due to the consistent warmth during that summer. This summer has had a great mix of hot and sunny days and cooler, pleasant and dry ones. Unsettled spells have been brief and well scattered throughout the 3 months.
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Yet ive thought its been a nice week. Just shows how 2 summer lovers opinions can differ so much. Its been very pleasant, never too hot and not too cool, although i must say the fog that i woke up to earlier in the week did have a very Autumnal feel to it. But it lifted by 7:30 to a glorious sunny morning on Tuesday and for the most part its been very nice. Sunshine amounts have not been that great but a look at the CET figures show that sunshine has been 97% of average which is still sunnier than any month of last Summer.
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Although snow is fun and all that - the whole needing to prepare to meet the outside world and the stark contrast from indoors to outdoors I don't relish. Some call it 'cosy' - I call it 'stuffy' or 'trapping'!
Yes that is a big hinderance about winter that i'm not looking forwards to. Preparing the car to go out to work in the morning and then negotiating the potentially icy roads. So different to now when i can just get in the car and have a hastle free journey to work.
And i dont even think snow is that fun so theres not that much to compensate for the added hazards of winter. Its not like i will go out and build a snowman on the front grass now like i would have done when i was younger. I am more likely to get the rake out the shed and break up the ice so it melts quicker and i get a green lawn back sooner.
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Bridlington August 1995 mean max 19.9c
July 2013 mean max 20.3c.
The widely acknowleged fantastic summer month of August 1995 was cooler than the supposed 'west is best' month of July 2013.
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I know this isn't going to be the most popular of posts in here, but I do feel it's something that really needs to be considered to avoid to much dependable on preferable operational output.
No, i think you are quite right to point that out and you make some good observations. With a ECM mean like this mornings 0z i will always take the 12z op with a huge pinch of salt.
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They couldnt be more different that is for sure. What is looking likely though is some warm moist air coming in off the Atlantic for the first part of next week and a suggestion that winds might tilt more southwesterly meaning added warmth and the increased chance of a plume type situation as the ECM is indicating.
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That low will probably move down during the next few runs bringing fresher air back
Throughout most of the second half of summer the ECM has mostly made low pressure dive southwards in the latter stages bringing northwesterly winds, and it has never come off. The GFS in FI has been much the same in often showing cool and unsettled conditions which never happened. It will eventually be right obviously but there it goes again in FI on the ECM 0z bringing low pressure further south than it has been all summer.
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Could be looking at even higher temperatures by Tuesday if the ECM is right. Some notable heat starting to move northwards towards the UK.
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I was just looking at the gfs after having not viewed it in a day or so and thinking how much the weekends low/unsettled spell had been turned down with well above average temperatures for most of England and Wales as soon as Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Weekend also looking mostly sunny.
A look at Saturday and Sundays charts shows high pressure hanging on with the cool northwesterly much watered down.
By Monday the ECM has warm air back over the UK so a very warm day in store for much of the UK. Temperatures would be back into the mid 20s after the weekends more average temperatures.
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the ECM 12z mean has next week very much a tale of two halves. The first half sees high pressure centred to the SW of the UK with warm/very warm westerlies affecting most parts but the warmest sunniest conditions to be found in the east.
Wednesday looks to have a SE/NW split with the warmth hanging on for longest in the south east with cooler air likely to spread south. Thursday and Friday are cooler for all as winds turn more northwesterly and it would also turn more unsettled from the north.
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Every time I visit this thread we seem to be on the verge of another heat wave/hot spell. Not one has materialised...
No one has mentioned a heatwave. The ECM has temperatures becoming very warm for a time. Nothing hot or remotely heatwave territory.
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It does seem like all 3 models have flattened next weeks high a bit compared to a couple of days ago with the GEFS mean not so confident of a widespread rise in pressure. But at the moment all the big 3 models agree on a return to the warmth for southern Britain after average or slightly below average temperatures on Sunday. There will be more changes to come with regards to prospects for early next week. The high could build further north than is currently being suggested or it could be pushed further south by low pressure resulting in a more w/nw flow.
The ECM currently has high pressure drifting off into Europe early next week and low pressure centred roughly over Iceland well away from the UK. This would result in some very warm conditions for the UK especially central and eastern parts.
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One thing i have noticed about this summer is that when a low pressure has come along, it has more often than not been followed by the Azores high rather than another low and another one after that like last year. The unsettled spells have been 2/3 days max and there has always been some form of high pressure showing in the models at present or in the not too distant future. This August has been superb here with little in the way of cool weather. Cloud amounts have been large at times but it has felt like summer for the majority of the time.
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Very impressive figure for this summer. Look at how far you have to go down to find the next best one since 2006. And then poor old 2012 languishing near the bottom.
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The ECM mean is neither here nor there really in FI. Not as settled looking as this mornings 0z mean but not supporting the blustery and cool ECM op.
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This evenings ECM 12z, is in line with its control model from this morning. An unsettled next week, with showers or longer spells of rain affecting the UK.
But the mean did not support a northwesterly at all, rather it had high pressure building and suggested warm and dry more especially for the southern half of the UK.
This evenings GEM has high pressure building throughout next week. Its all too far out to be sure.
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The ECM has a much more nw/se tilt to the jet stream in its latter stages which brings more unsettled conditions from the nw. High pressure only temporarily building next week. We will have to see what the mean says.
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The ECM has a finger of 0c uppers moving across the north of the UK on Sunday so a cool day in store, but with pressure remaing high it should be a dry day for most.
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Those ensembles have the mean rising higher than it is at the moment so if it can still reach the mid 20s today, we could be adding a couple of degrees onto todays values. Then it stays reasonably above average for the durating of the run. So the GEFS mean is firming up on a cooler weekend as the below chart indicates, but a swift return to something warmer for the start of next week.
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Depends on location but northerlies would be my favoured direction if we are to get periods of cold this year as they tend to bring a lot of sunshine with them. Awful dull months like March 2013 and Feb 2010 were more easterly ones. The sunniest winter in recent times for us was winter 2011/12 which was a mild westerly season so that disputes what anyone says about mild muck.
Summer 2013
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
June is down as 13.6c here http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/centralengav_temperat.htm