[Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards]

A very high pressure dominated GEFS mean 12z beginning in around 7 days time but still plenty of time for things to change. Some support from the ECM mean for high pressure to become more influential to the south of the UK but not as dominant as on the GEFS mean. Still showing a drying out trend though. UKMO 12Z sending in mild southwesterlies.

 

[When will 20C be reached?]

April 3rd i will say

[March 2014 CET forecasts]

im going to say 6.8c

[Summer 2014 - BBQ or Monsoon?]

Its easy and most probably best to sit on the fence at this stage, This past winter has made a mockery of some long range forecasts to its best not to commit at this stage. But last summer finally showed that high pressure and heat can hang around for long periods, after years of waiting.

[Spring 2014 Discussion]

Despite the mildish conditions of late it still seems unreal that we could potentially be just a month away from a settled and pleasantly warm spell. In recent years, March has often delivered such a spell.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

Well i like the ECM. Not sure if there would be a meandering front straddling the country in FI but long fetch southwesterlies such as those shown wont be a bad thing for flood hit areas.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

GEFS mean out to the end of Feb finishes winter off in typical fashion favouring an Atlantic dominated westerly regime. No sign of cold there.

 

[The changing daylight hours thread]

Arriving home from work in the daylight will be a welcome milestone. I say i should be able to experience that in a couple of weeks time. The rate of lenghening dayligh hours is gathering pace.

[Rainfall Statistics, 2014]

Good grief, it sounds grim in those valleys.

[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

Tentative signs of low pressure tracking further north at the end of the ECM.

 

[Spring 2014 Discussion]

Looks like the familiar signs of early spring in the garden will arrive on time/rather early this year. With no cold in sight i wouldnt be suprised to see daffs out by the last week of Feb/first week of March. Would make a change to last years very delayed sightings.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

This winter is starting to try my patience now, after being pleased with Decembers offering its now just turned awful. Having said that, the past 4 days have been really nice here and quite pleasant. Not sure we will get many pleasant days looking at the models this evening. Roll on Spring and some warmth.

[Some notable months and seasons since 2006]

Shocking that March 2013, despite feeling so unseasonable at the time, was only the 13th coldest. Thats compared to all the warm months (5 months either warmest on secord or second warmest since 2006). Just shows that despite the increase in cooler than average months recently, weve seen very few extrordinarily cold months, except Dec 2010 of course.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

Pretty miserable set of models at the moment. Any sort of high pressure would be good at the moment to provide a much needed break to monotonous rain and strong winds. But i would say better to get this disturbed pattern now than in 3/4 months time whan the outdoors season should be in full swing.

[Snow Poll Winter 2013/14]

Make that 1 day of snow falling, albeit for only a couple of minuites earlier.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

sorry but i dont recall last summer being particularly great.  No very high temperatures or long dry periods.  Okay not a washout summer but also not a particularly memorable one either.  Actually pretty normal and unremarkable in my opinion.

 

It wasnt spectacular along the lines of 76 or 95 but i feel it will be hard to achieve a better summer than 2013 this year. It was nice to hear the media mentioning how it had been a good summer instead of the usual doom and gloom.

[Snow Poll Winter 2013/14]

A bit of sleet spotted on the car windscreen back in November and a couple of minuites of sleety stuff yesterday.

[The changing daylight hours thread]

Almost gained an hour of daylight in the evening. Sunset here is 16:33.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

This Winter's proving v testing if it's a decent cold spell with snow that you crave.Just looks like a coldish wintry 'mess' come later this week and into the w/e (imby).Frustrating...and just ramps up my desire for an early warm Spring come early March, to put this 'winter' out of its misery!

 

The models do paint a dismal wet mucky picture at the moment full of days of 4-6c and frequent rain. It might as well be blowing a SW gale as it would dry things out quicker.

[Spring 2014 Discussion]

Snowdrops are a month earlier than last year but strangely later than 2007 despite winter so far being just as mild. Maybe the cold November hindered growth at the end of last year.

[Spring 2014 Discussion]

Snowdrops flowering in the garden. About a month earlier than last year. Tulips also poking their heads through. The borders are taking on that late winter/early spring look with shoots everywhere.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

No lovely drying south westerlies or crisp cold high pressure. Just cold rain being shown by the models. I despise nw/se tilted jet streams at any time of the year.

[Coldest Temperature record for Winter 2013/14]

Only 1 winter since 1900 has recorded a lowest minimum higher than -10c and that was 1989/90.

[Spring 2014 Discussion]

May has been a disappointing month in recent years whilst March and April have seen lots of dry and warm weather. Of course 2008 saw a glorious May but its not provided much since apart from a few nice spells here and there. Not enough to make any may since 2008 stand out.

[Is there anyway to predict a hot summer!]

It would be helpful to know if many long range forecasts were pointing towards last July being so warm. The Weatheronline seasonal forecast published on May 19th did point towards a good July which was drier and sunnier than normal.