Milhouse
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Posts posted by Milhouse
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And its the mild but unsettled situation that is most likely at the moment for the BH weekend. Higher pressure over the continent not allowing low pressure to push eastwards so a fairly mild southerly flow in general.
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I did suspect the GFS was overdoing the extent of low pressure and how far south it got next week. Turns out that it has fallen more in line with the ECM bringing a dry and, at times, warm week. Easter weekend turns progressively more unsettled with temperatures near average.
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ECM favouring high pressure next week
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Growing support for an improving Easter weekend which starts off cool and showery but ends fairly mild and dry. Never getting that warm however as it takes time to shake off quite a chilly NE feed. The main unsettled spell looks limited to Wednesday-Friday on the GFS with temperatures dipping to their lowest during this time as well.
Up until then its a typical N/S split with more dry and pleasant conditions to come for England and Wales.
It has to be said the UKMO is making very little of next weeks low that digs south on the GFS around midweek. Perhaps the GFS is overdoing it somewhat.
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It seems at the moment the models are upgrading high pressure as we get closed to T+0. A few years ago the opposite would always happen in summer with a promising Azores ridge being squashed as we got nearer the time. Lots of upgrades of high pressure this Summer please.
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Those predicting a cool and unsettled Easter may need to revise their predictions. Models are trending less cold and drier.
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Yes SS, a rather encouraging GFS 6z bringing the warm and settled conditions back just in time for the Easter break. Gone is the threat of snow on this run. Instead it would increasingly light winds and temperatures nudging into the low 20s. No support from the ENS mean for such a big area of high pressure. But winds do turn more westerly as the easter weekend progresses with warmer uppers being dragged into the mix.
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Up-to 11.0c to the 7th
4.6c above the 61 to 90 average
Compared to this point last year when we were a mere 3.2c to the 7th
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Well it seems like the last 24 hrs has seen a big upgrade of high pressure which will influence our weather on into next week. So for another 7 days at least. Time will tell whether or not the fairly dry conditions will last that long, but the upcoming weekend is shaping up very nicely. More unsettled conditions do appear round about day 9 but that still indicates potentially 8 days of springlike warmth and much needed dry weather before any breakdown occurs. Once again a northerly gets removed before it enters the reliable timeframe. Do i detect a theme emerging here.
Looking lovely down in London for FA Cup semi final day on Sunday with temps of 17/18c.
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All 3 charts are at 240h. Needless to say that things remain uncertain, as they always do at that range.
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This spring so far is overrated. There's been far too much bland drizzly autumnal muck for my liking. It's a lot warmer than last year but it's hardly 2011 either. A few sunny days is the least we should expect.
The bland plays on as it has done since autumn...
Got to agree with you there. I am waiting for some proper warm and most importantly sunny days now that the sun is gaining strength. Last week was disappointing here, but at least the countryside resembles the time of year rather than the baron wasteland of last year.
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ECM 12z looks like delivering some very average Springlike conditions with temperatures fluctuating from a couple of degrees above average under high pressure to average/slightly below under cooler northwesterlies. Rainfall looks to be highest in the NW, but nowhere looks like being especially wet over the next 10 days going by this run.
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Amazing to think that this time last year we were still getting single figure maxes and the countryside was firmly stuck in winter. Now its full Spring mode. Some trees coming into leaf and the tulips coming out. What a difference a year makes.
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With much cleaner air pushing in it should be a very seasonal next 10 days with average temperatures and a mix of settled and showery days. Nothing too extreme. One big difference will be the return of blue skies during the settled periods and inbetween any showers. This will allow the full effect of the stronger April sun to be felt.
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Not too bothered about the Atlantic returning, as looking at the models there doesnt look to be any vigorous deep lows heading our way any time soon. Changeable would be a good way of describing it rather than unsettled. It would also mean a return to cleaner air and would raise temperatures over this side of the country that have been pegged back recently.
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Summer is approaching but its still 2 months away which is good really as April/May have the potential to be very nice months given the right conditions. I would love a repeat of last July. The longest run of 28c+ temps since 1997. That will take some beating.
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Looks like fortunes are set to change for eastern Scotland and NE England but not until the weekend when a westerly wind will pick up. From next weekend onwards it can generally be said that the further SE you are the warmer and drier it will be.
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Much cooler and hazier here but it appears that we are just enough south to escape the really chilly stuff that the NE is experiencing. Across central England temperatures are 12-14c higher than this day last year. The oil seed rape is coming out already and its not even April yet.
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8.9c please
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A very mild ECM12z mean this evening with winds at first from the SE then veering southwest as low pressure tracks northwards up the western side of the UK. Towards the end it could potentially get interesting with the op and mean both showing heights building over Europe. First plume of the season perhaps.
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Differences between then UKMO and GFS at 144h. GFS brings back a colder easterly later next week with the mild temperatures becoming restricted to the east coast. UKMO has winds coming more from a southerly direction so it would be milder further north. What every model you look at though, Eastern Scotland isnt the place to be in the next 7-10 days unless cold and drizzle is your thing.
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The arrival of the milder air is set to happen overnight Friday with 850s in the range -1 to 1c on Friday afternoon being replaced by 3-5c for Saturday and Sunday. Then edging higher in the south east on Monday but not bringing much higher temperatures due to the wind veering more easterly off the north sea. Still pleasant warmth to come for a good part of the UK. NE coasts the exception. Another nice day to come on Sunday. Had a few pleasant Sundays recently.
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Will be a close call for the 4th successive month above the 81-10 average. Good change of achieving it wrt the 71-00 and 61-90 averages.
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Only issue is that any warmth from the east is tempered somewhat by the North Sea. The best of the temperatures would therefore be in southern England where the air has to travel over the least water. But at least the SSTs are warmer than average.
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April 2014 CET forecasts
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Gradual fall for the first part of the coming week then remaining static, with perhaps a slight rise towards the Easter Weekend. Looking likely that we will see the 5th consecutive month of 1c or more above the 81-10 average.