Milhouse
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Posts posted by Milhouse
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Not especially noteworthy but im always one to look for the best in the output so im pleased to say that Monday-Thursday dont look that bad. Temperatures rising to around average and fairly dry before it turns unsettled from the west on Thursday.
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Indeed. What about this chart from a summer that many remember quite fondly
Or this from an otherwise cracking summer
Or maybe this
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Indeed, it's been a very decent June here too, but whether bad or good to date it's the future we are interested in. The pattern going forward does not look encouraging imo, with a least the first week of July seeing a dominant Scandi trough affecting the UK, which could very easily extend its influence through week two as well. For those who have endured a poor June, this could mean a first half write off, so it's hard to blame those thinking and saying similar about the whole Summer...even if it does annoy some of the rather more sensitive souls on here.
To be fair its only those on the NE coast of Scotland why could possibly say they have had a poor June. Here further down the east coast temperatures have been down on elsewhere but it aint been bad. Plenty of dry weather since the first week.
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The BBC 5 dayer makes for grim viewing for those from Aberdeen. Max temp 13c. urrrghh horrible!
The south and southwest have had it very good this month though.
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The one consolation is that the ECM only turns unsettled in the last 2 frames so time for things to alter between now and then.
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ECM turns things settled and fairly warm for a while next week but keeping low pressure on a northerly track is proving difficult while we have the Arctic high in place. The last 2 frames see it rapidly turn more unsettled from the NW.
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Now if the ECM was to go beyond t+240 we would sure see some hot conditions pushing up from the south with low pressure becoming slow moving in the Atlantic. But its in FI. A ridge of high pressure next week is shown by all the big 3 models. But how long it lasts is still far from certain.
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One could argue that a transient ridge is hardly settling things down. 48 hours later.
Thats where the GFS had rolled out to when i posted said chart. The ENS mean supports a temporary ridge before the Atlantic fires up but that is a long way out.
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Well the afternoon suite decided that even Friday is still up for grabs. GFS is ok but the south east could see quite a bit of rainfall as the low stalls over the low countries. UKMO stalls the low in the north sea so will effect more of the UK.
GEM is absolute garbage.
I have seen a fair few situations over the years where the models are innitially slow to move low pressure off away eastwards. Then closer to T+0 it gets shunted away a lot quicker. Only time will tell this time.
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The GFS 12z up to 240 hours is looking to me as a low confidence chart with pressure never too high or too low so an even probability of it being unsettled or settled:http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0
Plenty of options on the table looking at the different 6z GEFS ensemble members from 240h onwards. Some go for a prolonged settled spell beginning early next week, but too early to tell.
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High pressure nudging in from the west early next week settling things down
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ECM 12z looking rather nice from 168h onwards. The only problem being the origin of the high pressure that eventually takes up residence over the UK. Its a rather cool source of air so we would need an injection of continental warmth to get temperatures rising. But what it does show is after an unsettled blip at the end of the week the dry and pleasantly warm conditions would be returning.
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Well the ensemble mean for next weekend looks a bit like this. Seems to be supporting the op in placing lower pressure to the SW of the UK and higher pressure over and to the north of the UK.
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Not a bad update from UKMO this afternoon with it showing pressure rising at t144
Will be interesting to see how this pans out over the next few runs to see if it has any support
And notice the lack of low pressure out in the Atlantic. Not really a strong Azores high but it would still bring summery conditions once it pushes in.
A reasonable GFS too in the low res section so another 7 days of warm temps, nothing cool, but a greater risk of showers breaking out next weekend.
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The GEM tends to throw in extreme outcomes from time to time, and we have seen time and time again during the last 6 months how northerlies do not materialise. The ECM mean does show pressure falling around the end of the week but rising again from the southwest towards the end. Id say this was looking quite reasonable for the start of July.
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It would be nice to get some higher temperatures approaching the high 20s just as its notable summer weather. But as another poster has said, its only June and the good summers of 1983,1990 and 1995 all had rather iffy Junes so were not doing too bad. We have lost the muddy ground as well now and its alltogether more summery than it was at the very start of the month.
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July is often the month that makes or breaks a summer with it being the warmest time of year. I will go for average at 16.7c
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ECM really sums up the outlook at the moment and thats an uncertain one. Pressure remaining fairly high but with no real warm air to tap into temperatures will remain rather average which will feel warm in the very strong June sun. Showers cant be ruled out on any day though.
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Turning into quite a nice June now after the first week was a bit rubbish. The outlook looking decent too. Anyone remember those washout summers we used to have hah!
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Remaining mostly dry and pleasant for another week if the GFS is correct. Lots of dry weather around and temperatures fluctuating between average and above average. The warmth really building next week as the Azores high pushes in.
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Never seems right when the longest day on 21st June is cool and unsettled. Luckily this year its going to be warm and settled.
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The run ends fine and increasingly warm with the Azores high pushing back in
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Fairly benign conditions from the ECM so far. Warming up for southern England and remaining that way till Sunday. Cooler air filtering south all the while and a fresher feel to things for the start of next week as high pressure attempts to push back in from the west. Remaining dry and fairly pleasant. A long way from the rainfest of June 2012 and probably better than last June as well.
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GFS 12z is showing a rather nice weekend now with the cool air never making it far enough south to spoil things. High pressure resident over the UK and remaining warm, becoming very warm in the south on Sunday and Monday.
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Summer 2014 thread
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Well firstly its been a good warm June and secondly as i posted in another thread, low pressure will always come close to the UK during the Summer, even its an overall warm, dry and sunny one. So the outlook is by no means unusual or especially bad for this time of year. Its just not what many had hoped for for the start of July. It would be nice for a potential heatwave to start showing up on the charts. And thankfully its not like you have to follow one from t+384 to t+0. They can pop up and develop quickly.