[Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.]

GFS 6z once again looking good. The 0z brought cooler uppers down from the northeast next week whereas the 6z has things turning warmer sooner with high pressure centred over SW England next Thursday. It may not last all that long but some summery conditions are approaching.

 

 

An almost perfect position of high pressure for warmth and light winds.

 

[May 2014 CET thread]

Its often the case that during a warm period like now its funny how we see to get positive anomalies despite it never feeling that warm. This May hasnt felt that warm and we are still 1c above average, albeit the 60-91 average.

[Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.]

Definite signs from the ensembles of things warming up.

 

[Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.]

Things only get better from the 6z. But in typical Spring fashion it all goes pear shaped in FI.

 

 

 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.]

ECM and GFS handling things somewhat differently but both agree on high pressure becoming more of a player in our weather over the next 10 days. UKMO taking sides with the GFS meaning that the likelihood is we will have to wait a while longer than the ECM is suggesting. But the signs are there.

 

Well what do i know. Its all up in the air now. The GFS 6z throws up a magnificent run with things drying out and temperatures rising from midweek. Will the UKMO follow this?

[Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.]

ECM and GFS handling things somewhat differently but both agree on high pressure becoming more of a player in our weather over the next 10 days. UKMO taking sides with the GFS meaning that the likelihood is we will have to wait a while longer than the ECM is suggesting. But the signs are there.

[Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.]

High pressure to the east and south. Can only be a good sign for our first possible taste of Summer. Must stress that im not saying that summer arrives within the next 10 days, but high pressure looks in just the right place to bring warmer and drier conditions up from the south as May progresses.

 

[May 2014 CET thread]

Late this time    ill say 12.2c

[Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.]

I think we can probably consign any possible cold outbreak to the bin now. Its been so watered down that its not really anything notable. The GFS 12z has the 0C 850 hpa line just scraping past southern England and temperatures are back up to 12-15c by Saturday. The coolest day is Friday with 10-13c across the UK.

 

The notable upgrade has been that of high pressure. This mornings ECM op would deliver almost summerlike conditions.

[Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.]

Much more straightforward placement of the high now emerging. Gone is the low pressure sliding south out of Iceland keeping things cool.

 

[Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.]

ECM so far so good in bringing in high pressure to begin the bank holiday weekend.

 

[Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.]

GFS 12z showing some very calm and benign conditions developing as the cold northerly wind dies down at the weekend. High pressure moving south to sit over the UK so temperatures will slowly recover to average values but nothing you could describe as warm until later on in the run. UKMO at t+144 looking like raising temperatures quicker than the GFS so if it was right it would become pleasant in time for the bank holiday weekend. Pleasing outputs from the 12z runs so far.

 

[Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.]

The key to how soon it turns warmer will be the direction in which next weeks low pressure heads. The GFS 12z has it loitering over the North Sea before slipping south into France. This means the approaching high is unable to build across southern England. Instead it builds over Scotland leaving the UK in a cool NE wind. The ECM 0z on the other hand has the high pushing in in a much more favourable position for warmth. No low pressure over Europe restricting its movement eastwards.

[Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.]

Bank Holiday weekend looking good on the ECM 12z, Although starting off rather chilly.

 

 

[Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.]

And on the other side of the colder spell the 12z ENS mean has high pressure likely to be back over the UK by next weekend

 

[Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.]

A couple of fine days seem to have popped up recently on the models for Monday and Tuesday next week under a ridge of high pressure.

 

[Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.]

Out of my post-October hibernation! Glad I can remember my password. Thanks for all the recent analysis. 

 

Welcome back!

 

Models have a bit of everything tonight. Residual warmth dying away, leaving a rather cool and unsettled spell before signs of high pressure nudging back in from the west. No sign at the moment of the jet stream roaring into life bringing an endless train of southerly tracking low pressures. So something to be positive about.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014]

Some pretty grotty charts on show tonight from some models. Will feel unpleasant in a northerly this time of year. Luckily the GFS is flip flopping all over the place which offers the hope of something more pleasant returning quicker. UKMO doesnt look too bad either.

[April 2014 CET forecasts]

We require the final figure to be 9.5c or more to make it 5 consecutive >1c above average months. When was the last time that happened. Anyone?

[Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.]

A quick glance at the Models, And they certainly have a cool and unsettled look about them.

 

 

Longer term trending cooler but this coming week will see fairly warm winds from off the continent bringing above average temperatures. Next weekend sees low pressure introducing more of an easterly, then a northerly for the following week. A quick look at the already well above average April CET will show no fall predicted this coming week so it must be mild/warm for the next 7 days.

[Today's UV]

I sat out this afternoon with the intention of catching a bit of sun but not too much. On an unremarkable day temperature wise the sun really made a difference.

[Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.]

The remarkable run of above average temperatures looks set to continue with another fairly warm week to come. Low pressure to the west will be sending fronts across the country but also delivering some warmish air from a southerly direction. Temperatures peaking in the high teens around midweek on the GFS. Warm but unsettled best describes it.

[Summer 2014 thread]

The noticeable feature of last Summer was the return of low pressure over Greenland instead of the monotonous high pressure that for so many summers had forced depressions on a southerly track towards the UK. Any warm and settled period was followed by a longer lasting unsettled period as low pressures queued up in the Atlantic to affect the UK. June 2012 was a classic example of this after a nice end to May. In 2012 the UK was very much stranded in a cool NW airstream. Last summers occasional unsettled conditions tended to come from a warmer source.

[The changing daylight hours thread]

Yeah, a bit of darkness is good. On a night out its preferable for it to be dark so that would be my argument for not having double BST as it would still be light here at 11.30/midnight. Plus in winter when its dull and wet who wants it to be light in the evening anyway. Loving the sunny evenings at the moment with the sun setting over all the fresh new growth and trees coming into leaf. A proper spring scene.

[What do you want from Summer 2014?]

No continuous heatwave as i dont want the countryside to look parched and there to be wildfires everywhere. But a summer with frequent hot spells and occasional deluges from thunderstorms. I want to be often waking up to clear blue skies in the morning and enjoying calm sultry evenings.